It is setup just like years past. There are two total systems, the off o/u and def o/u. The systems project what the total should be based on the offenses and defenses. The average is, of course, the average of the two which is generally near the total for the game. When all three total columns have a total above or below the posted game total, I've bolded and underlined the row for that bowl to indicate the agreement. There are two side systems and one system pulled from FoxSheets. My systems are the system A and B columns. The main difference between the two is that System B factors in strength of schedule. The values in the columns represent what each system thinks the spread should be. When all three systems have a line that is above or below the posted side for the bowl, the row for the bowl is bolded and underlined to indicate the agreement. If anyone has any more questions, let me know and I'll be happy to help.
In the spread and total column, the number in parentheses is the opening number. If there are no parentheses then obviously it hasn't moved or has moved back to the opening number. All lines are from Pinnacle.
Isn't system A alone pretty successful as well, when they don't agree? Pretty sure I remember System A being good.
Unfortunately the 2013 and 2014 threads are gone. Plus, I posted on Rivals for the first 3 or 4 years and those threads are long gone as well.
I copied a lot of notes regarding the sheet in 2014: -System A is based on raw statistical data -System B is similar to A but adds in strength of schedule -The system numbers are what it thinks the spread should be -The numbers in parentheses in the spread and totals sections are the opening numbers. -Off O/U is guessing the O/U based strictly on offensive data. Def O/U is...you guessed it...based strictly on defensive data. The average o/u is an average of the two. As of (12/12/2014) When the Def O/U has favored the under by more than 6 points, it has gone 48-30 (62%) The best O/U predictor is when the Avg O/U column is more than 6 points off in either direction. Which ever way the Avg O/U column favors has gone 17-7 (71%) When System A has the underdog favored, the underdog is 28-13 (68%) ATS When the Def O/U has favored the under by more than 6 points, it has gone 48-30 (62%)
I see a Tulsa VaTech OU listed at 61 which is a 6 pt difference on the Avg O/U on THE SHEET Also see the TCU Oregon matchup with a 78.5 OU which is also 6 points off FYI
Do you jump on bets way early with the sheet or wait until the day to account for possible injuries/suspensions etc
I'll jump on it earlier if I feel the number is going to get worse for me. In this case I was wrong on BYU since I see some +3s popping up.
It is going to be a play. Like I said earlier I try to get the best number and based on the public money coming in I had a feeling this line would drop. It's down to SJSt -1.
Final Card for Saturday, December 19th: *****BYU +3 (bought the hook) **Appy State -7.5 ***San Jose St. -1 ****SJSt/GaSt Over 55 ***Louisiana Tech -2
The sheet likes it, numbers arent that far off though. Honestly its tough to pull the trigger on that game. Huge difference in motivation. Sheet doesnt factor in home field, assumes nuetral field for all games.
If Arizona plays to their potential its not gonna be close. But as most are saying, after a fiesta bowl bid, are they really gonna be excited to play in the new mexico bowl? Will one sack take out their QB because of hus concussion history? Too much uncertainty to play anything in this game.
From Twitter: The under was 6-1 this season when New Mexico was an underdog. They opened as a 10-point dog with the total at 64.5 versus Arizona.
Bruce Feldman ✔ @BruceFeldmanCFB Big #Baylor news: star WR Corey Coleman (hernia), RB Shock Linwood (foot) & QB Jarrett Stidham (foot) are all out for bowl #UNC 2:05 PM - 19 Dec 2015