In case anyone is interested I believe FSUsem's System A went a little better than 60% before the championship game.
Yes sir. System A has a proven track record of over 60% reliability for almost a decade. With the title game it went 26-15, 63.4% for this bowl season.
If i remember correctly, he had a long disappearance before last time as well so hopefully he remembers to come back again this year
No problem. It used to take me a 3-4 days to finish the entire sheet. Had an excel wizard assist and got the time down to a couple hours.
Care to update the numbers too? This is what I had from last year It is setup just like years past. There are two total systems, the off o/u and def o/u. The systems project what the total should be based on the offenses and defenses. The average is, of course, the average of the two which is generally near the total for the game. When all three total columns have a total above or below the posted game total, I've bolded and underlined the row for that bowl to indicate the agreement. There are two side systems and one system pulled from FoxSheets. My systems are the system A and B columns. The main difference between the two is that System B factors in strength of schedule. The values in the columns represent what each system thinks the spread should be. When all three systems have a line that is above or below the posted side for the bowl, the row for the bowl is bolded and underlined to indicate the agreement. If anyone has any more questions, let me know and I'll be happy to help. Over the last 3 years When A&B agree, the side has gone 46-19 ATS (71%) When all 3 agree, the side has gone 27-12 (69%) System A is 66-37 (64%) over the past 3 years, 105-64 (62%) over the past 5 When System A has the underdog favored, the underdog is 28-13 (68%) ATS When the Def O/U has favored the under by more than 6 points, it has gone 48-30 (62%) The best O/U predictor is when the Avg O/U column is more than 6 points off in either direction. Which ever way the Avg O/U column favors has gone 17-7 (71%).\ For those who are new or need refreshing to read the sheet... -System A is based on raw statistical data -System B is similar to A but adds in strength of schedule -The system numbers are what it thinks the spread should be. For instance, System A thinks Oregon should be favored by 12.8. Since the line is Oregon -9, System A likes Oregon. -The numbers in parentheses in the spread and totals sections are the opening numbers. -Off O/U is guessing the O/U based strictly on offensive data. Def O/U is...you guessed it...based strictly on defensive data. The average o/u is an average of the two. Getting rid of the SF Outplay. I added it a couple years ago for more reference on the sheet but it was taking away from the system and getting in the way of making money. Last year, using the original three columns, when all 3 sides agreed it went 8-4 (67%) ATS. When System A has the underdog favored, the underdog is 28-13 (68%) ATS When the Def O/U has favored the under by more than 6 points, it has gone 48-30 (62%) The best O/U predictor is when the Avg O/U column is more than 6 points off in either direction. Which ever way the Avg O/U column favors has gone 17-7 (71%).