If you read back a little bit, there’s info on a strengthened disturbance as a result of storms in Nebraska and Kansas Thursday night. That strengthening is winning the battle in the models now. Before, everything was kind of weak and balanced.
Well, hopefully the shift continues. It's starting to look like there is a decent chance this thing never makes landfall.
Even if it doesn't make landfall in FL, but still hugs the coast, the storm surge will still be highly impactful
I get it. I've been living with these things my entire life. With that said, the impacts if it never makes landfall will be significantly less than if it does. Surge could be an issue in some places but nothing that most will need to be overly concerned about. There won't be a major surge without a landfall. The new track continues to move it east and farther offshore.
Water is already over the sea walls in Miami and Laudy w the king tide and (I’m guessing) outlier surge right now. Got a snap of my parents’ house in North Miami and water is over and hitting their feet when they stand on the seawall this AM
That's not entirely true. Slow moving storm, high tides, and landfall or not, the surge will likely be a very high impact a la hurricane Matthew. Impacts likely won't be as far inland, but coastal impacts will still be high
If it truly hugs the coast like Matthew did. Models starting to suggest it may not do that. Matthew was right on the coast all the way up.
I have had a vacation planned in Clearwater Beach for next week. I for one am loving these new projections. Hopefully it stays out to sea. I don't think i've ever watched a hurricane so close. NHC is bad ass at these things
Those dots before the turn are so close together, Grand Bahama is in deep doo doo with a Cat 5 sitting on it.
yeah, I heard that if matthew was just 20 miles to the west, you and everyone you know would have been dead Spoiler AND YOUR KIDS DEAD TOO
actually they seem really bad at these things and it just shows that no one can really accurately predict what’s going to happen past 48 hours. Hurricane forecasts are like preseason rankings, the earlier they are the more wrong they turn out to be.
they seem to be dead accurate as long as everything happens the way they need it. If a front backs down then this thing will turn a different way (see Irma) and now they weren’t accurate at all. Which means inside 36 hours is really the safe bet.