Hate when people claim a lost bet was the right side....but..... Good god what an atrocious set of refs and what an atrocious call on 3rd and 2 to play action roll out when youve torched them for 220+ on the ground already....
Staying off the Independence Bowl. Miami should kill them on paper. La Tech should kill them based on motivation. -6.5 is an extremely cheap price for Miami considering all the blue chip talent you're getting. +6.5 is generous for a Group of 5 team playing essentially at home against a Power 5 team running on fumes. No idea which Miami team is going to show up. Not gonna bother with guessing.
I'm considering the overs in both games (I'm seeing both at 49.5 on DK) and maybe Pitt -12, but leaning no or only a partial unit on that.
I snagged under 20.5 midway through the 3rd and was sweating bullets that last Pitt drive after LA Tech didn’t knee it 3 times
not to hijack but just reminding all of us tryin to get rich off this sheet that dogs in bowl games who cover have a good percentage of winning outright. I like to do "1 unit" on the +4 and then 0.5 unit on +ML. I don't have the percentage handy for how often the Dogs covering win outright but the number was high enough that it was a no-brainer several of the past few years. UAB and EMich only two that have covered but lost SU this year. Other 5 dogs have won SU
Hey man, all input more than welcome. Everyone else free to jump in too. And you're absolutely right. Since 1980, the favorite has won but the underdog covered in 26% of the regular season games. In bowl games that drops to 14%. This is despite the favorite covering roughly the same 48% of games in both regular and bowl season. The ROI on betting the underdogs outright has been more profitable 5 of the last 6 years than betting the underdog with the spread.
No play on the Texas Bowl for me. I'd lean Texas A&M and the over. Jimbo normally excels in spots like these. Also, unranked teams are generally a good play in bowl season against ranked teams.
I had to make my picks yesterday (was at my parents in NJ, I live in NY). I'm on: UNC -6 (woo) Wake +4 OK St +6.5 Air Force -2.5 Good luck to everyone today.
Ha, just was saying the same about Wake re: lacking some faith. I even have less faith in Michigan State’s offense. First one to 13 wins.
Sitting out the Holiday bowl as well. Line seems sharp. Iowa would seem to have the motivational advantage but tough to back that offense.
This year System A and B are each 10-7 ATS (59%). When all 3 agree, 4-2 ATS (66%). When A & B agree, 6-3 ATS (66%). Good numbers so far with vol. 2.
Good day yesterday, let's keep rolling today. PSU -7 ND -3.5 OU +14 OSU ML Plus I put in a 7 team ML parlay with a DK free bet I had, so if PSU, ND, and LSU just win SU, that'd be a nice bonus. FSUsem I'm interested in your thoughts behind the unders in both semis.
No play for me on the Champs Sports bowl but I lean Notre Dame. Not sure if they care much about this second-tier Orlando bowl after losing their O coordinator when they were in the playoff last year...but if they do they should roll Iowa State.
All we're hearing about is how great the 4 QBs are. Maybe this is the reason the totals are 5+ points higher than the projected O/U Avg number (despite it typically being within 2-3 points). The reason isn't because of pace, we're dealing with 4 teams who all rank outside the top 45. While we're obviously dealing with 4 elite offenses, I think all 4 DLs have the advantage over the OLs on paper. The totals seem inflated.
Saturday, December 28 ***Penn State -7 ****Oklahoma +14 *****LSU/Oklahoma Under 76 *****Clemson/Ohio St. Under 63
Everyone on Reddit and Twitter is all over tOSU and I already placed max bets on Clemson (ML and -2). Oh well I really like those under picks and thanks for the AF/Wazzu picks.
Under still has a small shot as at some point you have to think LSU will let off the gas and run clock.
I took LSU -13 about a week ago, I played the under thinking the over was one of those “too easy” type bets....oops.
I'm probably taking Clemson. Think line will be inflated due to them dominating a depleted Oklahoma team today. Hope it gets to 7 but think it'll probably be 5 -6