What’s your logic for TBT? The Fed is providing liquidity and if stocks drop, which I can see, wouldn't treasuries be a safer alternative?
I think readily available testing and treatments are not that far off- a month or two away. That said, all of these loans/stimulus/etc is going to come back and bite us in the ass at some point.
If that happens I would expect a dip in number of cases, but what happens when you start opening things back up. Sports venues/arenas will just reignite it. I would imagine the market will be pretty volatile until there is a vaccine.
Correct. You're not just going to go back to the way it was. It'll be a slow climb back for the next 12-18 months until a vaccine is to market.
Bars, Restaurants, Sporting Venues, Casinos, Airlines, Cruise lines, etc... will slowly trickle back, very slowly, until there is a vaccine.
I feel like you are drastically underestimating the desire of the general population to go back to life. I think bars, restaurants and casinos will ramp up as fast as they open post social distancing. Sporting venues will draw people the minute they allow people in. I feel like the vacation related providers will come back slower due to people’s loss of income.
Lots of articles today about everybody just not paying their mortgage. I’m not a financial guru, but it seems like that mixed with whole industries taking huge hits, plus 6-7M newly unemployed every week would absolutely have some repercussions down the road. Add in that we were on an 11yr bull market run and everything was at an all time high, and also that this would be twice as short as the shortest bear in market history (I think) and the potential that the virus comes back worse in fall and I just don’t see how it goes up. The only way I could understand it is if somehow all this only adds up to a 20% dip or so in the economy, and that initial 37% drop was just drastically oversold. Of course, that would be easier to accept if we weren’t at ATHs when this all started though.
Feds ending funding for popup test sites tomorrow I believe. That will certainly lead to drop in # of cases, but then we won’t know if it’s because we turned the curve or if we just are testing less.
This economy is fucked. Record corporate debt (and now growing). Highest % of slowing EPS growth on record prior to the shutdown. The math doesn't add up for a quick recovery. This rally is just riding the hope of the economy opening back up shortly. Whether that's May 1st, June 1st, July 1st only matters in terms of magnitude to the downside, not that this isn't going right back down.
I for one am shocked that leaks about a Russia/SA agreement, which came out before the meeting even started, may have been little more than a pump and dump.
I am surprised I do not see more of this. Almost all of my friends are entering the market with some new money right now and make me feel like shit for not throwing more into it. I've decided to no buy into this market any further than the minimal amount I did on this recent upswing. I'm scared. For reference age group is early 30s.
1. It doesn't fit the narrative that people in the media want. They get paid off people buying stocks. 2. People don't understand the drop and bounce here is related to liquidity. We more likely have more liquidiation, but could also be done. That would be a bottom if you're looking in a near term i.e. a few months as an example. 3. They further don't understand the solvency crisis that is inevitably coming, and that is when the real, massive drop happens that would be >50%
Outside of the general stonk fuckery going on, ZM is absolutely baffling me. They started the week out with getting a lower valuation, then security questions popped up, they pretended to resolve these by hiring someone from fucking Facebook, of all places, and now government agencies and major corporations all over the country are saying don't use their software until some shit gets fixed....and they're still fucking climbing. I think Elon is running Zoom tbh
I saw a tweet yesterday that sums them up perfectly IMO. People are saying "let's zoom" is now a verb, thus it's taking off. Remember when "lets skype" was also justification for take off? That said it may go another 25% over the next 6 months. Who the fuck knows
he's saying that what the Fed has done is great but the market is broken because it's propping up zombie companies and creating obfusication.
He is saying that what is happening with the Fed prop up is only helping institutional investors and institutions. He says it all needs to go down in flames. Hedge funds and CEOs will come out of this and individuals are getting fucked.
What i found disturbing that i saw yesterday is that 500 billion is going to failed for profit universities and private, charter, schools. Don't think Public schools get anything. Hate Devos
Odd timing for this question, but before I pay for professional advice I am hoping some of you may have some pointers. In mid-February, my sister and I inherited some stock. It's not a ton of money but it's a good chunk of change. The last account statement we had was from 12/31/19, and at the time it was enough to allow me to sell my half, pay off my student loans, and pay off all taxes associated with selling the stock. I just spoke with the bank today, and the account value is now where it'll only allow me to pay off the loans but not the taxes. If I were to adjust my payroll withholding to account for the increased tax obligation for 2020, the amount of taxes associated with the sale (assuming a $0 basis) is, ironically enough, about the same as my monthly student loan payment, so for 2020 I will not have any change in cash flow. Given all this volatility and that we are currently in the green, would it make sense to go ahead and sell it now? Or should I ride it out for a bit? Or maybe put stop limit orders in at a certain amount and if things tank take what it is and go with it? ETA: Currently in the process of obtaining online access to ascertain which stocks are owned, so that may inform the decision. But I feel like I need to move fairly quickly here, so wanted to post this while it was on my mind.
While he had some good points I’m sure if we just let everything go down in flames that would work out great for everyone
Is it a taxable account or a retirement account? To make it easy, are the letters 'IRA' anywhere on the statement? If it is taxable, there will be a step-up in basis: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stepupinbasis.asp If it is retirement money, i.e. a beneficiary IRA, money taken out would be taxed as ordinary income.
Yeah you’d get a step up or step down depending on the value at Date or Death. I.E your basis in the stock becomes what the value was at DOD. It’s likely the stock values decreased since DOD so not sure what taxes you’d owe? Also inherited stock is automatically long term (regardless if you sell it immediately after receiving) so max 23.8% tax rate.
It's in a trust, so there's no basis step up due to the death. I'll be liquidating the trust and taking ownership myself. My understanding is that the liquidation is nontaxble to me, but when I sell the stock it'll be taxable. I also work in tax, so my question is a financial one of sell now or hold, the decision is just being driven by tax considerations.
Only the capital gains are taxed. Those gains are based on the day you inherited the stock. I assume there have been losses on the stock, not gains. You probably won’t owe any taxes.
Oh. This is all sounding not right to me. What type of trust? Are you the trustee? If you liquidate the trust, you won't have any stock to sell, you'll only have cash.
The step up applies to trusts as well? I haven't had time to look into that aspect, but based on what a CPA told me that was not the case. A testamentary trust is all I really know. Currently a bank is the trustee, but the plan is for them to resign and appoint me (or someone else) as trustee so as to give my sister and I greater control and to avoid fees. Currently, the trust owns stock. At the end of the day, I want cash to pay off student loans, so I will need to convert the stock to cash to do so. My goal is to have the sale of stock picked up on my personal income tax return rather than a trust return due to the lower trust tax rates. My understanding is that it would be that stock sale--after the trust has distributed the stock to me--that would be the first event to trigger the tax. And the basis of the stock would be a carryover basis from the trust. Based on Joystick Izzy it seems the basis may not be a carryover basis but rather a ~FMV basis.