Official Investing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Joe Louis, Jul 12, 2010.

  1. pacey

    pacey Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Dumped all my principal on NIO LI and XPEV mid day yesterday. Then sold all XPEV and LI this morning. So yeah right now everything seems to be going right.
     
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  2. burnttatertot

    burnttatertot butt tuck zoomies
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    Anyone know why JMIA has jumped 20+% twice this week? It was my least owned position but it has leapfrogged 4 spots. I'm not even 100% sure what they do. Is it more Etsy or is it more Amazonish? I just wanted some diversification.
     
  3. pacey

    pacey Well-Known Member
    Donor

    This morning it looks like I will be putting $ back into LI and XPEV. Also, Hanks Fri post is below.

    A few post-Holiday Comments - Fri, Nov 27th, 2020 -:- 6 : 41 : 30
    The markets did pretty much what we expected early in the week, rising nicely on Monday and Tuesday, then pulling back on Wednesday. The days ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday are usually Bullish, then pull back on Wednesday before resuming their upward bias on Friday. Today’s session for equities will close at 1pm; bonds will stay open for an hour longer.

    Since the Dow’s current rally began on 30 October from the 26,144 level, the wave structure has been anything but clear. The only thing that can be said about the rally is that it’s ongoing, but to put labels on the waves is impossible. It’s pretty much the same thing on the S&P, but here the pattern suggests the recent wave ‘b’ high could be followed by a small leg down in the next week or so before moving higher. So far, the S&P has not exceeded the 9 November high as was the case for the Dow which made a new high on Wednesday. So, there’s inter market divergence which is usually not a healthy sign.

    Anytime I see unclear patterns, I like to look for other clues as to what could be happening. The indicators are still positive, so I must remain Bullish. But when I look a Put-Call ratios and investor sentiment, they paint a completely different picture.

    For example, the equity P/C ratio on the CBOE was at 0.38 on Tuesday. Simply put, this is a crazy number. I haven’t seen a number like this in years! It reflects way too much investor optimism. Also, the IIA Survey shows the percentage of Bulls at a level that was only exceeded in the early fall of 1987. Most of us remember what happened after that. So, while the rally could continue into December and perhaps even longer, it’s living on borrowed time.

    BTW, while the wave count on the indexes is not clear, the patterns on some of the large tech stocks is telling me there’s trouble ahead. Apple (AAPL) is not looking healthy, nor is Netflix (NFLX) or Amazon (AMZN). None of these ‘FAANG’ stocks have made new rally highs. These are the stocks that powered the NASDAQ higher. Also, Tesla (TSLA) appears to be completing a skyrocket pattern for an impulse Wave 5. Skyrockets have a bad habit of falling back to earth very quickly. So, as I mentioned a few weeks ago, the index to watch going forward is the NASDAQ. It’s the weakest index and should be the first to break down. This is the reason why the Model is only 50 percent invested, with the other 50 percent in cash. I respect the current extreme P/C ratios and sentiment readings too much to be putting all my money on the table
     
  4. BUstang

    BUstang Lawyer

    I hopped on the PLTR train. I still feel confident despite the slip today. Same thing happened with NIO.
     
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  5. burnttatertot

    burnttatertot butt tuck zoomies
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    I like Xpeng, but then again I like most stuff connected to Alibaba when it comes to stocks. The cars look good.

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. texasraider

    texasraider thanks
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    Buying more apple amazon and Tesla
     
  7. southside

    southside Well-Known Member
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    Hilarious. FAAMG has been consolidating for 6 weeks and the nasdaq just broke out this week. It’s about to rip.
     
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  8. southside

    southside Well-Known Member
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    I did start buying some VIX lottos today as a hedge.

    VXN creeped up a bit finally today, which is needed to get big tech off the ground again.
     
  9. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    BB starting to move a bit, eh?

    I have seen the same numbers as Hank and they do give me a lot of pause. The interesting thing to note about the 0.38 equity put-to-call ratio is that the SPX put-to-call ratio is actually much, much higher. This indicates that the big boys are actually quite hedged. Watched the VVIX creep up a little bit today as well. USD/JPY also began to drop below 104 again. These are all clues to some possible downside activity. Seeing crypto gains being taken along with precious metals is also another clue. The only gains left to take at this point are in the equity market.

    With that said, I do believe we must squeeze more before we can drop. Saw a hint of that at the end of day today. We may go as high as SPY 390 before any significant pullback is achieved. It's getting harder to say where exactly that pullback will target now as well. I would just stay long but with very careful sizing in positions.
     
  10. southside

    southside Well-Known Member
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    Etsy calls today :fap:

    up 20% on the portfolio this week. Probably give it all back soon
     
  11. pacey

    pacey Well-Known Member
    Donor

    BB has been nice. I am still in the Chinese EVs. If any of the 3 get Europe distribution approval they will blow one ski high. NiO has an interesting play in the fact they have a battery monthly fee and do not build their own cars. 3 billion people and China wants EV. Merica markets have to come pull back
     
  12. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    VIX and VVIX both gapped up with good size this morning and gave everyone just enough time to get hedged if you weren't already. SPY 359 right here is the tipping point. Volume picking up if we keep selling this could be a big one.

    Shitty thing is I was planning on going into AMD $90 calls at open but seeing VIX up so much halted that plan. Would have doubled my money within 15 minutes.
     
  13. pacey

    pacey Well-Known Member
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    i am 100% cash
     
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  14. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    AMD making magic right now.
     
  15. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    Morning sell-off was a gift. Those AMD calls dropped and are now up 400% in two hours.
     
  16. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Up 34% today and at $5.73
     
  17. kinghill

    kinghill Cool American Flavour
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    It's official. Finally have 1 year salary saved in retirement savings 401k+IRA. At my age I'm still behind, but happy with the progress I've made over the past couple years. Maxing out the 401k and Roth IRA contributions is something I should've started long ago.
     
  18. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
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    two thirds of this country is saving ZERO. Be proud of yourself man
     
  19. pacey

    pacey Well-Known Member
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    Well I sell it all thinking Hanks Doomsday is here and the China EVs bounce hard and BB is up like 40%. Someone shoot me.
     
  20. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Hank needs to remember stocks only go up
     
  21. construxboy

    construxboy xenForo is the new TMB
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    Corrected
     
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  22. construxboy

    construxboy xenForo is the new TMB
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    I never understand why investors ever get all out or even mostly out of the market. Traders, sure. But investors with 7, 10 or more years timeframe? Just foolish. No offense.
     
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  23. CaneKnight

    CaneKnight FSU Private Board's Fav Poster
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    We're probably looking at another crash early in 2021. Shut down + housing market crash... Makes sense to remove money from the market and just reinvest at a lower point. All signs point to that unless you think Republicans and Democrats are suddenly going to start working together and just handing out a large stimulus to the general public
     
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  24. construxboy

    construxboy xenForo is the new TMB
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    Timing the out and then the reinvestment is what most people, even professionals, mess up most of the time they try to do it. But that doesn't stop people from trying. Just think that it's a bad gamble.
     
  25. brolift

    brolift 2sweet
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    Buying VXX rn
     
  26. elfrid

    elfrid he thinks the carpet pissers did this?
    Miami HurricanesOrlando MagicTampa Bay BuccaneersArsenalOrlando CityUnited States Men's National Soccer Team

    just invest in weed this week and retire imo
     
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  27. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    doesnt make sense on a 10yr or better investment timeline though
     
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  28. Open Carry

    Open Carry TMB Rib Master
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    What brokers does everyone use? I’ve been using ally since I do my banking through them, but it’s kind of limited.
     
  29. RockHardJawn39

    RockHardJawn39 #FranklinOUT
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    Vanguard for my solo 401k and retirement brokerage. Tda for fuck around stonks.
     
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  30. texasraider

    texasraider thanks
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    Apple is up over 5% since he said it looked really dangerous
     
  31. pacey

    pacey Well-Known Member
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    i do think that 5% happened over yesterday and today.
     
  32. texasraider

    texasraider thanks
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    Well he said it Friday and it’s Tuesday
     
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  33. pacey

    pacey Well-Known Member
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    Oh. He said it a few weeks back as well. He has been pretty down on them.
     
  34. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
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    Have my Roth IRA in Vanguard and 401k, HSA, and brokerage in Fidelity.
     
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  35. Jimmy the Saint

    Jimmy the Saint The future is a benevolent black hole
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    Schwab for brokerage and IRA's and 401(k) is through Fidelity.
     
  36. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    vanguard for roth ira

    back in wealthfront for taxable

    tried out a bunch of platforms this last year, i'll take the slight hit on wealthfront for truly being able to ignore it while it tax loss harvests/rebalances/etc vs a brokerage where i'd be tempted to day trade more. psychological fee.
     
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  37. BP

    BP Bout to Regulate.
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    BB is ripping on the Amazon news
     
  38. texasraider

    texasraider thanks
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    what's the news?
     
  39. Fusiontegra

    Fusiontegra My life is dope and I do dope shit.#SparedByThanos
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    BlackBerry Stock Jumps 50% on Deal With Amazon Web Services for Connected Car Software
     
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  40. Fusiontegra

    Fusiontegra My life is dope and I do dope shit.#SparedByThanos
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    Legit didn't know BlackBerry was still a thing.
     
  41. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
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    wait til you hear about kodak
     
  42. Fusiontegra

    Fusiontegra My life is dope and I do dope shit.#SparedByThanos
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    Could we fucking not.
     
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  43. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    ^^^^^^^^^^

    Hope some of you got in on this one. 10-baggers in LEAPS are pretty sick. Sad to hear you let go Pacey I think you were still up a good bit anyway, no?
     
  44. texasraider

    texasraider thanks
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    legit thought you were talking about bestbuy because I thought the Clinton Foundation was the only customer of blackberry
     
  45. Fusiontegra

    Fusiontegra My life is dope and I do dope shit.#SparedByThanos
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    NIO puts paying me on the way back down, too.
     
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  46. Tigers

    Tigers Admin of the Year 2011-2014
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    Anyone use M1? I've been using it for 2-3 years now and love it. Free, no fees, and fractional shares. Only downside I've found is they only do trades once a day and no options....but that isn't the target investor. Built for buy and hold/retirement/long term investors.

    I've got a roth and a taxable account with them.
     
  47. pacey

    pacey Well-Known Member
    Donor

    yes a few grand. Yesterday killed me. Sold when everything was headed south, thought the pullback was coming and did not want to lose the profits.
     
  48. BUstang

    BUstang Lawyer

    Anyone dabbling with some less expensive option plays? My apple $118c 12/24 keeping my portfolio green admist a bunch of bad decisions. I have a AMD $92c 12/24 took a dump today as the stock moved sideways.
     
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  49. Fusiontegra

    Fusiontegra My life is dope and I do dope shit.#SparedByThanos
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    Closed out my AAPLs today but holding a 12/18 90c on AMD that's still up about 35%. Had a few of them that I sold off during run up and just holding this on profits.
     
    BUstang likes this.