2022 CFB Coaching Carousel: Mike Leach walks the plank

Spoiler

There has never been a coaching carousel like the one college football just underwent in 2021. There were 29 head-coaching jobs that turned over, from Group of 5 afterthoughts to some of the sport’s bluest of blue bloods. The turnover started with UConn and USC early in September and officially ended with Hawaii in late January — though Auburn sure made things interesting with Bryan Harsin into February. In all, 14 Power 5 programs have changed head coaches entering 2022, or 21.5 percent.

It is never too early to look ahead at who could be on the move, or on the hot seat, come this fall. Here are some risers, fallers and potential storylines to monitor among Power 5 schools heading into the 2022 season.

ACC
Boston College

Jeff Hafley has gone 12-11 in two seasons at BC, which has been impressive for two reasons: He took over as a first-time head coach amid the pandemic in 2020, and he navigated much of 2021 without starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec, a likely NFL Draft pick next spring. Last year’s showing was enough to garner serious interest from Virginia Tech, and to land an extension from the Eagles through 2026.

The question entering this fall is, essentially, if he can break BC out of its “around .500” rut, as the program has won either six or seven games in eight of the past nine seasons. (BC went 3-9 in 2015.) Hafley is only 43, and his seven years as an NFL defensive backs coach would likely resonate with decision makers in pro front offices if he continues his ascent in Chestnut Hill.

Florida State

There have been a bunch of rocky moments in Mike Norvell’s two years in Tallahassee. He did a terrific job at Memphis and has done some good things at FSU but can’t afford a step back, not with momentum seemingly building under new regimes at the Noles’ two arch rivals — Miami and Florida. FSU has gone from 2-6 and 4-4 in the ACC following the backslide under Jimbo Fisher and then the brief but turbulent run of Willie Taggart. Missing the postseason for a third time would be hard to get by. If favorite son Deion Sanders keeps winning and generating buzz at Jackson State, that will only add to the heat on Norvell.

Georgia Tech

Perhaps only Scott Frost enters 2022 on a hotter seat than Geoff Collins, who goes into Year 4 in Atlanta having not won more than three games in a season. He brought aboard eight new assistants this fall and lost a dozen players to the transfer portal, none bigger than Jahmyr Gibbs, a former top-100 signee who landed at Alabama. (Check out Jeff Schultz’s sobering State of the Program piece on the Yellow Jackets for more.) This is a hard job that was always going to be made harder by anyone who didn’t run the triple-option offense, which Paul Johnson mastered during his 11-year run on the Flats. It was always going to require a complete culture turnover for Johnson’s successor, whomever it ended up being. Collins’ public persona has fallen flat amid all of the losses, and the program really needs to examine how it got to this point and how it will dig itself out.

Does reverting to the option and bringing aboard a disciplinarian like Army’s Jeff Monken bring the place back to life? Does it try the up-and-coming personable route again and go after a guy like Will Healy to try to tap into the resources of the Atlanta market? (Though Healy himself is coming off back-to-back losing seasons with Charlotte.) Tech likely could have had Tony Elliott back when it hired Collins, though just how big of a whiff that was won’t bear itself out until we see how Elliott does at Virginia. These are tough, tough times for Georgia Tech, and it’s on Collins right now to coach his way out of them during a season that opens with Clemson and closes at Georgia.


There aren’t many coaches on a hotter seat than Georgia Tech’s Geoff Collins, who goes into Year 4 in Atlanta having not won more than three games in a season. (Brett Davis / USA Today)
Louisville

There is no such thing as stability in the Derby City, as Louisville currently has an interim AD and an interim president. Scott Satterfield is 18-19 through three years with the Cardinals but is coming off consecutive losing seasons, and he had four assistant coaches depart after each of those two seasons. Throw in the fact that favorite son Jeff Brohm didn’t exactly say no when asked last week if he had any interest in returning to his hometown, and this situation could get interesting if things go sideways on the field in 2022.

Still, it’s worth remembering that Satterfield was the ACC coach of the year in 2019 for his quick work rebuilding the mess that Bobby Petrino had left behind, and that starting all over again would be particularly rough on this program. (Also, Brohm would likely have to take a massive pay cut to leave Purdue, which is expected to pay him north of $5 million in 2022, while Satterfield is in line to make just more than $3 million from Louisville this season.)

North Carolina

Mack Brown had to fight against retirement rumors late last season amid his Tar Heels’ fall from a preseason top-10 team to a 6-7 finish. Brown will be 71 by the time the 2022 season kicks off, and he has been up front about making the appropriate fixes to UNC, which had initially looked ahead of schedule by the time it reached the Orange Bowl in Brown’s second year. Consistency is key for what has been a sporadic team in recent years, and replacing QB Sam Howell will be no picnic. Brown has been more honest with himself since his last go-round at Texas, saying that the minute he starts thinking about an exit plan, he will already know it’s time to go. That hasn’t happened yet.

Syracuse

Syracuse is a little like Georgia Tech but without the geography, which makes losing seasons slightly more tolerable. After all, how can an ACC school be expected to recruit well in Central New York when an ACC school in Atlanta can’t get out of its own way? Nonetheless, the Orange need to figure their stuff out this year under Dino Babers, whose 10-3 season in 2018 looks more impressive with each passing year. Syracuse has gone 11-24 in the three years since, although last year’s 5-7 campaign showed signs of progress, including three consecutive three-point losses (to FSU, Wake Forest and Clemson).

Still, if BC and Wake Forest can figure out how to be consistent in the ACC, what’s Syracuse’s excuse? Another losing season will probably make that a question for someone else to answer, as Babers enters Year 7 at just 29-43. Alum Doug Marrone was the last coach to have some consistent success with the Orange and will likely be available. Does a proven program-builder with East Coast ties like Al Golden make sense, or would Golden have his sights set higher should he have a successful debut season as Notre Dame’s defensive coordinator?

Wake Forest

This was Dave Clawson last week at spring meetings: “I’ve been an FCS non-scholarship coach, an FCS scholarship coach, a Group of 5 coach and now a Power 5 head coach. And I’ve always said, I think at every school there’s a formula to win, and the key is figuring out that formula as soon as you can.” Comments like those show his appeal across the country, as he undertook a massive rebuild at Wake Forest in 2014 and has gone 51-48, after starting with consecutive 3-9 seasons.

Wake has made six consecutive bowl games, went to the ACC title game last year and finished 11-3 and at No. 15 in the AP poll — its highest finish ever. Virginia Tech and Washington, among others, made runs at Clawson after last season. He signed a long-term extension and made several staff upgrades, but his buyout is not believed to be prohibitive. (Wake is a private school.) Still, there is an argument to be made that the 54-year-old Clawson has one of the best jobs in the country in 2022: He loves Winston-Salem and, due to the place’s nature, the Demon Deacons are largely insulated from much of the chaos that has recently engulfed the sport and led to burnout elsewhere. With upward of 20 starters back, the 2022 Deacs have a chance to be the best team in program history.

Big Ten
Michigan

It’s never boring with Jim Harbaugh. After taking a salary cut, his team finally beat Ohio State and won the Big Ten for the first time in almost two decades, but he interviewed for NFL head coaching vacancies and didn’t get one. He’s had to rebuild his coaching staff and sounds like he has realized his NFL coaching career probably is not going to happen again. But . . .

Minnesota

P.J. Fleck’s squad went 9-4 last season and beat Wisconsin for the second time in four years, a strong campaign that left a feeling of unfinished business after the Golden Gophers inexplicably dropped home contests to Bowling Green and Illinois. Ace offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca is back after leaving in 2019, and so is quarterback Tanner Morgan, who already has 39 career starts under his belt. Fleck is just 41, and he signed another extension last season through 2028. He likes it in the Twin Cities, and he has a $10 million buyout if he were to leave before Dec. 31.

While his public persona isn’t necessarily for everyone, his work in revitalizing programs at multiple levels (he took Western Michigan to the Cotton Bowl) is attractive to ADs. And if the 2022 carousel is anything like the 2021 circus, Fleck’s phone will likely be ringing a lot should the Gophers post another strong season.

Nebraska

It simply has not gone like many (included some of us at The Athletic) thought it would go for Scott Frost at his alma mater. In four seasons, Frost hasn’t gotten close to the Huskers having a winning year in Big Ten play, going 10-25 overall. Last year’s 1-8 record in the league was punctuated by him canning half his staff. New AD Trev Alberts has supported him and kept Frost on albeit with a restructured contract with a smaller salary and buyout, but he can’t afford another dismal season — or even another mediocre year.

It won’t be cheap to move on from Frost, whose buyout drops to $7.5 million on Oct. 1. Frost added offensive coordinator Mark Whipple from Pitt and pass game coordinator Mickey Joseph from LSU to hopefully bring in more playmakers. Oh yes, and Frost also was hit by the NCAA with a one-year show cause. It won’t really impact him, but more bad optics are never a good thing in a hot-seat situation.

Purdue

The case for and against Jeff Brohm leaving for his alma mater was laid out above in the Louisville section. But what about elsewhere? Last year’s 9-4 breakout campaign was strong, but it still left him under .500 for his five-year Purdue tenure (28-29), and he had to replace five assistant coaches, which means he will be on his third defensive coordinator in three years. Opposing coaches rave about returning quarterback Aidan O’Connell, but he will be throwing to a mostly green group of receivers. If Brohm can work his magic again this season, he will likely be a hot name, especially because his offense is easy on the eyes and puts fans in the seats.

Big 12
Iowa State

Matt Campbell is probably the head coach at USC right now if Oklahoma had hung on to beat Oklahoma State in the 2021 regular-season finale. That scenario aside, it is pretty remarkable to think that Campbell is still in Ames after all of the big jobs that came open across the country last season. He has turned around programs in the MAC and in the Big 12, making him proven goods in the eyes of risk-averse ADs. Iowa State will have plenty of new faces this season, and it will be interesting to see if Campbell’s stock cools at all if he has a mediocre year on the heels of a 7-6 showing in 2021.

But his overall body of work speaks for itself, and it seems like it’s only a matter of time until the 42-year-old lands as the perfect fit for a blue blood, be it at Michigan, Nebraska or elsewhere.


It seems like only a matter of time until Iowa State coach Matt Campbell lands as the perfect fit at a premier program. (Stephen R. Sylvanie / USA Today)
West Virginia

Neal Brown did a terrific job in four seasons at Troy, going 31-8 in his final three years before taking over at WVU. He’s had to rebuild the roster and he’s gone 17-18 in three seasons. Some grumblings about players bailing out of the program have not helped settle concerns that the Mountaineers are headed in the right direction. Brown added Air Raid offensive coordinator Graham Harrell and former USC and Georgia quarterback JT Daniels in what will be an interesting reboot for the latter’s career. The opener at Pitt could go a long way toward determining whether Brown’s seat heats up further or he buys himself more patience from an angsty fan base.

Pac 12
Arizona State

The recruiting scandal has wiped out half of Herm Edwards’ coaching staff. Many inside the college football world are surprised Edwards and his boss, AD Ray Anderson, are still working there. Much of the team’s top talent has bolted out the door through the transfer portal. There’s been some buzz inside the Pac-12 that Edwards will retire after the season. Regardless, the feeling here is this program is headed in the wrong directionand it’s going to become increasingly difficult for the Sun Devils to compete for players with so much turnover both on the staff and on the roster.

Oregon State

Jonathan Smith’s career record as a head coach is only 16-28, but there’s no doubt the former Beavers star QB has elevated his alma mater’s program, highlighted by last year’s 7-6 record. He inherited a dreadful situation of a 1-11 team in the wake of Gary Andersen’s bizarre tenure. If Smith follows it up with another strong season, he should end up on more AD’s radars — especially with the shaky state of the Pac-12 North these days. If you’re ASU, Smith, a Southern California native might make some sense there, but that program might be in such bad shape that it might not seem like a wise career move.

UCLA

After a disappointingly slow rebuild, Chip Kelly and the Bruins had a strong 2021 with an 8-4 record that included scoring 66 points in a blowout win over archrival USC at the Coliseum. Still, there was lingering doubt about whether Kelly would remain as UCLA’s head coach with his contract status coming to a head and with athletic director Martin Jarmond not being the one who hired him.

Kelly agreed to a new four-year contract extension set to run through the 2025 season. It has quieted things down in Los Angeles, especially with Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet back and a favorable schedule where 9-10 wins look very possible. For now, that seems to be the dynamic in Westwood.

SEC
Alabama

A person close with Nick Saban speculated to The Athletic recently about the possibility of Saban retiring after his next national title, an observation that was met with an eye roll. After seeing Saban uncharacteristically call out multiple schools by name last week, though, that scenario is suddenly easier to imagine. The 70-year-old has never really shown signs of slowing down, or shown interest in doing much of anything besides coaching football. Could this era of player empowerment and roster turnover be enough to wear on him, though?

We’ve seen it happen recently with several of his men’s basketball contemporaries, and if and when Saban does decide to hang it up, the decision may have an even bigger effect nationally than his initial move to Alabama did in 2007. Whether the successor is Dabo Swinney, Mario Cristobal, an internal candidate or someone off the radar, the Crimson Tide opening will command attention like no other, whenever that day comes.

Auburn

Auburn is like Louisville in that its only constant is rampant instability. The Tigers just brought in a new president, and the status of AD Allen Greene will be talked about endlessly until he is given an extension, as he is in the last year of his contract. None of that bodes well for Bryan Harsin, who survived a tumultuous first year on and off the field but might not have anyone left in his corner should the Tigers not improve in 2022. They lost their final five of 2021 to finish 6-7.

But, this being Auburn, expect success when it is least apparent. This is a program, after all, that has not posted consecutive seasons of 10 or more wins since 1988-89, but has managed to win one national title, play for another and post two more undefeated seasons during that span.

Kentucky

Mark Stoops has quietly done one of the best jobs in the country, going 59-53 and posting two 10-win seasons in Lexington across 10 years, the last four of which have ended with bowl wins. He’ll be 55 this fall, and his Wildcats should be positioned for success again this season. His name has come up here and there for bigger jobs, and the former Iowa DB would be a natural successor to Kirk Ferentz whenever Ferentz decides to hang it up, assuming Stoops would be interested in returning to his alma mater.

Ole Miss

There’s never a dull moment with Lane Kiffin. He has made Ole Miss nationally relevant after going from five wins to 10 in Year 2. He’s loaded up on talented transfers. If he can keep the Rebels, who finished No. 11 last year, in the top 15, he should be one of the more attractive candidates in what may not be a big buyer’s market. Kiffin can coach offense and is a brilliant play caller, which will make him an attractive candidate for any place trying to excite a fan base.

His shoot-from-the-hip style may turn off some ADs and presidents, but he seems less risky than he did back in his FAU days and less so by the year in Oxford, where by all accounts, things have gone fairly smoothly on and off the field. To their credit, the Rebels have stepped up considerably to support him and the program, paying him well over $7 million a year. Then again, if Auburn targets him to contend with his old boss Saban, the Tigers would likely make a big move on him financially and could offer him more recent history to compete for championships.

 

I think Campbell leaves eventually. I could see him replacing Frost or Fleck. And I think Stoops is a lifer at Kentucky barring Iowa making a run at him.

 

Oh man this is going to be hilarious.

 

I believe he clarified later that he didn’t include anyone from last years list

 

Same.

 

Gundy might have set the record for longest apology statement without taking responsibility for his actions.


Also, I have to imagine there is way more to this story considering Morgan Scalley survived a similar situation at Utah. I get that it’s Utah and it was several years ago, but there is precedent for sticking around after being an idiot. And OU seems like a pace that would do everything possible to keep the guy.