Anyone who thinks DeSantis can defeat Trump is completely underestimating the loyalty of the Trump base within the party. Drive through any rural area in any state and you will see Trump yard signs today, as if the 2020 election were this Tuesday. In a GOP primary, those people carry the vote and they aren’t leaving Trump. Trump will crush DeSantis.
Trump is like 3 more tries from putting a nickname on Desantis that totally neuters his career. Desanctimonious ain’t it, but we’re going to get a “Little D” or “DeSaster” and that’ll be all she wrote.
That’s where the Civil War is looming. Mainstream Republicans seem ready to break free of Trump, which is ironic be it’s they had two chances after impeachment but failed to do so, and seem to. E pushing all the chips in on DeSantis. This will put them at odds with Trump loyalists who are their voting base. The fundraising part wants Ron. The voting part wants Donnie. Let them fight.
Republicans are cowards and will not risk Trump’s petty wrath. They saw what happened to anti-Trump Republicans in 2022. There were 10 who voted to impeach: Liz Cheney (WY) primaried Tom Rice (Sc) primaried Jamie Beutler (WA) primaried Peter Meijer (MI) primaried Adam Kinzinger (IL) forced to retire Anthony Gonzalez (OH) forced to retire Fred Upton (MI) forced to retire John Katko (NY) forced to retire Dan Newhouse (WA) won re-election David Valadao (CA) currently winning None of them are going to cross Trump and side with DeSantis. That ends their career.
It's depressing to admit but he's one of the most entertaining people I've ever seen. It's like the Conor McGregor politician model.
Tell me you've never heard DeSantis communicate without telling me you've never heard DeSantis communicate. I fucking despise them both, but as idiotic as Trump is his idiocy resonates with his idiot base. They still chant, "Lock her up!" years after Hillary became politically irrelevant just because master tells them to. By contrast, every DeSantis speech is some variation of, "There's too much wokeness and I'm anti-woke. So we don't like woke. Did I say woke? Woke woke woke woke woke. I don't know if you guys have heard the term woke, but I'm against woke."
I've never understood what votes Desantis has the ability to win. He plays to a right wing base and that's it
All Trump has to do is replay DeSantis' political ads from when he ran against Gillum showing DeSantis reading Trump-themed children's books to his kid, repeating "Build the Wall," and reinforcing how much he idolized Trump. The Trump loyalists will 100% accuse him of being a backstabber, and Trump will be happy to propagate the Nazi-era "Jewish backstabbing" trope by accusing DeSantis of being supported by globalists.
yesh but he didn’t try to steal an election and isn’t as foul as trump, he’s more the traditional Republican in terms of demeanor if not policy
Again, watch him speak in any non-controlled environment. His demeanor is terrible. He’s super pouty, his voice trembles when he’s put on the spot, and he just whines. I fucking loathe saying anything positive about Trump, but he was good on the stage and kept himself under control (minus the first Biden debate). DeSantis literally freezes and is really, really slow on his feet. He’s an even less charismatic version of Rubio, and that’s saying something.
To put this in a college football sense, this is moving a top 15 team to number one for beating UConn by 50
The difference is that these people didn't have the support of the upper echelon of the party. These people want Trump gone, and they will throw money at the idea of normalizing not following him. Not saying it happens day one, but Murdoch is already laying the seeds. He doesn't do this without direction.
nailed it. I'd just add that there are others in GOP world that I also think might outshine him. Everyone just thinks DeSantis alone because Murdoch's got his media machine pointed in that direction currently.
Absolutely, people don’t understand how orchestrated all his media is here in Florida. He won’t go in to anything with even a hint of opposition. As much as I loathe to compliment Trump, he has a charisma that Ron just doesn’t have. He stumbles and melts any time he has a whiff pushback. He won’t withstand what Trump can bring. If he is smart he will just let Trump loose, embrace him, and be ready for the real fight in the next one. He starts mudslinging against Trump, man I don’t see it going well for him.
Desantis is more ad/fluff piece than a living breathing person as a candidate. Can his handlers keep him entirely in a space where he's an idealized, tuff talkin' bastion of "true conservatism?" Its a hard ask - he already wore those white boots in a disaster zone
2016 showed that the upper echelon has no control over the base. Jeb Bush would have been the nominee if they had it. 85% of the party still denies the result of the 2020 election. No one beats Trump in a Republican primary in 2024. He may lose a state or two, Utah or maybe Florida, but it will be over by the first week of March.
I’ll say this - the only way I believe anybody unseats Trump is if a candidate becomes more unlikeable to the left than Trump. I still believe that “Sorry for lashing out, I have a micropenis lib” is the only uniting principle on the right until proven otherwise.
Desantis is worse than trump on policy. He's more right wing. Trump is more anti democracy but that's it.
DeSantis context is so important. FL Dems couldn’t organize a birthday party let alone a half way competent state political apparatus. We aren’t all that removed from Ronald squeaking out an election against Gillum. Let the republicans put their support behind him as the “future”. It’s a fuck up.
Nikki should have run against Rubio, Val against DeSantis and Crist should have retired to run the state party or something rando like that. Or just not.
Nothing really surprising but just depressing, sounds like what I envision you’d get from most rural areas in the US
Losing the opening primaries would show a lot of weakness. If his polling implodes I think he’ll do something dramatic to save face rather than stay in and take his beating. It’s fine if you disagree. El Tiburon What I meant was…many gopers seem to think he communicates the conservative culture war message more effectively than Trump at his point who mostly rants about the ‘20 fraud. Desantis is using his policy wins (even the ones struck down in court) to “communicate” an actual vision for gop voters. And even the rwmediasphere appears to think this communication is superior to what Trump is offering and offers them a better chance of winning in ‘24. For the record, I agree that DeSantis is a weirdo that doesn’t seem very comfortable in debate settings. But you guys seem to be acting like that’s instantly disqualifying, and even if he somehow wins the nom, he’s zero threat to win the election against a vulnerable incumbent…
He would have to get there first, and he’s not a match for Trump. People who think Trump is suddenly going to wake up and act rationally for the good of the GOP haven’t been paying attention. This is Frankenstein’s monster turning on his creator, and the Trump base will eat it the fuck up as he takes DeSantis down with him.
he started coming out on the progressive side of lay up issues and started getting attention on Twitter and frankly, I think he liked it. He started leaning into it and you saw ridiculous Twitter accounts like socialists for pritzker pop up and I think he’s just assumed this identity as progressive champion. Somehow shit posting worked and I really do think he sees himself as a true progressive talisman despite being a multibillionaire.
I dont think anyone is discrediting him as a major candidate. But its silly to think stuff like debates aren't major factors in primaries. It's literally what made Trump. Kemp and Youngkin are both rumored to be floating runs. You've got Nikki Haley. I even heard someone float a rando like Doug Burgum -- which is less about him and more about how there's always a governor or two no one really knows yet. Unless those two clear the field it'll be a zoo. And in that chaotic scenario, people who can turn out a passionate base have an edge. That's Trump. The hope would be DeSantis and Trump split that passionate base, because I don't really think they're going to appeal to many people outside of it. If there's a lot of candidates that won't drop out, probably goes to Trump. If there's only one or two, maybe they can get an "anybody but maga" thing going on. Maybe. But I really don't see other politicians passing up on their ambitions just because DeSantis is currently popular 2 years out.
Rural america is completely gone. You can click around this map and any county without an urban area was like ~93% for Abbott. It’s insane.
Question- at this point, why do any of us care what the result of Trump v DeSantis will be? I mean, ultimately I’d want trump to take the nom but that’s only because he has a proven track record of driving voters to the ballot box to vote against him and his down ballot in record numbers, and not sure DeSantis would engender them same level of vitriol. But for the next year or so, I plan on just sitting back and enjoying the blood orgy.
I am going to assume in the below we will lose the house: If I am biden I just go full fucking nuke in 2023 on EO shit that dem voters want and the courts will not be able to have it all figured out by 2024, then the 2024 voters will get hyped up to preserve all of that good good. I think it's the only shot we have at all 3 levers of power in 2024 Just a thought
I am most afraid of a Pence/Cheney 24' ticket. Especially after Republicans digest this midterm result and realize they need folks who are a safe distance from the Trump/Maga cesspool. Both of them satisfy that criteria; especially Liz with her role on the J6 Committee. Pence helps them win the Midwest which little Ron cannot do. Finally, I think both of them appeal to George W. Bush republicans extremely well because both are viewed as "moderate" Rs while still maintaining abhorrent views concerning abortion, gay rights etc.
Lol pence is a coward he won't do shit. No one would vote for him anyway because his wing of the party is dead
That's the conservative equivalent of running a Sinema and Kamala ticket in terms of party popularity imo