I worry that the nature of the offensive has been telegraphed too long and that Russia has really fortified their defenses hopefully UKR has the means to puncture a line and the supplies, logistics and stones to hold it after the initial surge UKR take my energy
what if the spring offensive just never happens and UKR is now stacked to the gills with enough capability to put a hard stop on the war going forward.
there never was going to be a spring offensive at this rate, its going to be a late summer move they are still building out the forces Russia is not replenishing its forces/firepower, so every day that goes by they get weaker
Thoughts on the drone strikes? Are the folks back home going to put pressure on Putin to stop the war now that they are under the gun? Will he use it as justification to up the ante and do something stupid?
There’s some people supporting Ukraine outside the parliament in Oslo. Prime minister and NATO Secretary General are meeting there now I think.
I think it's a Doolittle Raid operation. I'm not a Russian Politics expert but from what I've seen Moscow IS Russia politically, and showing people there that you can reach out and touch them makes it seem a lot more real to the people near the decision makers. That said, yes they absolutely could spin it as "Ukrainian Aggression"
First off, I'm not sure the Ukrainians are "stacked to the gills" -- my personal opinion (just from what I can glean from various news sources that aren't Ukrainian [or Russian] propaganda pieces) is that they're critically short of artillery pieces and shells. I think if they had more shells the offensive would have started a month ago. To your larger point, time isn't on the Ukrainian's side. A. The Ukrainian economy can't keep this up. B. They can't count on the long term support of the west because many of the NATO countries are a political rubbish fire right now. The biggie is the US election, of course -- with both Trump and DeSantis (and an uncomfortable % of the US population, Elon's twitter and TMB user Artoo ) openly supporting Vladimir Putin -- but hell, support could evaporate quicker if the US goes into debt default or something. C. The longer this drags out, the more Ukrainians die, the more soldiers keep coming back with traumatic injuries - missing limbs and horrific burns and brain injuries and all the rest, sooner or later the Zelenskyy governing coalition will falter. Russia, on the other hand, is a totalitarian dictatorship funded by oil. Even if they lose considerable ground this summer, they can just choose another Ukrainian town to fight a cauldron style battle - Verdun or Stalingrad or the like - throw thousands more impoverished young men into the meatgrinder and slowly bleed Ukraine to death (see above). I don't know how much danger Putin is in from the other oligarchs / warlords who run Russia, maybe a whole lot, maybe none at all.
Afghanistan was never part of the Soviet empire. It was a troublesome border region that they were afraid they might lose to China. Even when they invaded, Brezhnev, who by then was in very poor health, only did it because he was worried (for good reason) about the hawks in the Politburo and KGB (Andropov and such). As the war dragged on, it was certainly a drain on the Soviet economy and international prestige / power projection, but ultimately I think it had very little to do with the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union. To that end, Chernobyl and the rise of the powerful new generation of political figures (some of which are still very much in power) were much more important.
right Afghanistan had an even more flimsy economy than Ukraine, received less support, had a smaller population, and was going up against a much, much superior military force in size, funding, and equipment.
The Afghanistan comparison honestly makes the Ukraine situation even crazier in some ways. Like...Afghanistan is a warren of mountains, valleys, and tunnels with basically no modern transportation infrastructure outside of the major cities, and didn't share a border with the Soviet Union's "states" with major population centers. Ukraine is basically designed to be easily invaded (even its name implies it). Flat as shit, modern highways throughout, next door to major logistics hubs, and it's only coastline is next to a Russian lake.
I mean, the same opium farmers kicked the fuck out the United States and half of NATO too though. My point is it was never a part of the Soviet Union (or the United States for that matter). Ukraine has been in the Russian sphere of influence since the collapse of the Commonwealth in like 1775 or something. This war means something much different for both the ex-KGB officer / world's richest man who runs the country and the Russian people as a whole.
I really don't even think that's accurate. The US military achieved the goal of targeting and killing Al-Qaeda and Taliban leadership. It also succeeded in occupying key areas and could continue to do so relatively safely pretty much forever (at the expense of the ANA). The POLITICAL goal of "nation building" was an utter clusterfuck of graft, corruption, and war profiteering that was never going to succeed and was never meant to.
That's probably right. I should have been clearer. My point is the US is gone from Afghanistan and some of the worst people in the world are now running the entire country now (as opposed to 75%).
Got a chuckle out of DeSantis. You have to either be living under a rock, or Florida, to think he factors into any of this.
Ya know what, credit to the people willing to spend the time to do this. I had to try and track where various commercial vessels came from and went to once upon a time and it is a monumental pain in the ass.
Crazier things have happened in US elections. My point is sucking off Putin is basically a platform of the Republican party these days.
The Russians don't have the capability to do anymore offensives right now. And another mass mobilization could be a disaster for them. Its going to be interesting how this offensive plays out. If they breakthrough fairly easily, it could be a route. If they get bogged down, it could be all bad.
My first job in Afghan was tracking commercial vehicles in country that were only going base to base and "weren't " trying to hide and it was a nightmare. Couldn't imagine doing this shit.
Pretty sure Ukraine knows when they want to do it and for now are doing feints and probing defenses and just letting the counteroffensive talk go on. The whole counteroffensive is imminent thing has to be psychologically draining on the Russians.
Yes for sure- the threat of the offensive happening anytime anywhere is working well for Ukraine at the moment.
Shit not even that. 90% was just getting every day supplies to bases. Now in Iraq we had to figure out who stole generators and that was fun. Turns out ot was the higher up military and KBR folks that ran the base..
I'm supposed to believe they captured Russian copters (and weapons) and happened to have some skilled pilots with them?
Now we know how US new everything Russia was going to do. https://www.reuters.com/technology/...d-thousands-apple-phones-spy-plot-2023-06-01/
All I know about Transnistria is Sheriff making noise in the Champions League early stages every year or so
You should read the Athletic article about the region that gets linked every time they make it. It’s basically an autonomous region that’s mob run with heavy links to Russia