FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 29-18 (62%), +27.9 Units (No mas)

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FSUsem, Dec 7, 2010.

  1. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 27-17, +28.2 Units (Cotton & Compass Bowls)

    ***Nevada/BC Under 55
     
  2. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 27-17, +28.2 Units (Kraft Bowl)

    Some stats on the system:

    Favorites are 20-12-1 this year. The over is 18-15.

    When 2 out of 3 over/under system lines agree, the system is 20-11 (65%). The Def O/U number is 24-9(73%). When all 3 sides agree, it is 7-2 (78%).

    The System Diff A number is 21-10-2 (68%). When 3 out of the 4 spread lines agree, the system went 18-7 (72%). When all 4 spread angles agreed, it was 8-5 (62%). When both System Diff numbers agreed, the system went 15-10 (60%). When the two numbers disagreed, the System Diff A number was right 6 out of 7 times.
     
  3. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 27-17, +28.2 Units (Kraft Bowl)

    ***Nevada/BC Under 55
    **Nevada -7 (-120)
     
  4. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 28-17, +31.2 Units (MNC Play Coming)

    Another successful bowl season. The system is another 20+ unit season in the books. Don't blow all your winnings if you have any on the MNC game. I've loved Oregon from day one. My system only confirmed it.

    ******Oregon +1.5
    ***Oregon/Auburn Under 74
     
  5. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 28-17, +31.2 Units (MNC Game)

    Sem--
    Were you leaning under before the O/U D said it was a play? The reason I ask is that I am trying to decide to hedge. If oregon wins and the total goes over 76, I will win 2 bowl pick'ems. With my own system, I have the game at 80. I like to use yours as a cross check, though. Thanks.
     
  6. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 28-17, +31.2 Units (MNC Game)

    Yeah I lean to the under here. Like the Boise/TCU game from last year and the OkSt/Arizona, Boise/Utah, TCU/Stanford, OSU/Arky, and VT/Stanford games this year, games typically go under when we're looking at two teams where the Off O/U number is 20+ points higher than the Def O/U number. Vegas knows the public likes to bet the over and they're generally trapped into betting the over on a line generally in the middle of my Off and Def O/U.
     
  7. slogan119

    slogan119 Her?
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 28-17, +31.2 Units (MNC Game)

    Two interesting points here:

    The under is dropping like a rock, and has 80% of the money on it right now.

    Auburn is dropping as a favorite, and they have 70% of the money on them. Similar to PITT and Miami, OH.
     
  8. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 28-17, +31.2 Units (MNC Game)

    I'm only showing 65% on the Under and 60% on Auburn.

    That's besides the point, but what are you trying to say?
     
  9. slogan119

    slogan119 Her?
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 28-17, +31.2 Units (MNC Game)

    Don't like agreeing with the public on the O/U, but it could be worse. I don't have a problem here.

    Money on Auburn and line dropping = good stuff. Fully agreeing with you and the system on this.
     
  10. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 28-17, +31.2 Units (MNC Game)

    Yeah I think the Under is a great play though. So many past games in this system where we have a difference of 20 or more in the Off and Def O/U. I think it was something like 10 out of 11 times that happened the under won. Now with trends you have to look at them with real world application and I think its clear that Vegas uses the numbers to trap squares into betting the overs.
     
  11. slogan119

    slogan119 Her?
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 28-17, +31.2 Units (MNC Game)

    Agreed. I think Auburn will actually slow down the game and try to make it a slugfest rather than a shootout.
     
  12. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 28-17, +31.2 Units (MNC Game)

    thanks.
     
  13. acal09

    acal09 New Member

    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 28-17, +31.2 Units (MNC Game)

    I think the under is a pretty good hedge to your Oregon play... Auburn is most likely going to try to get a head, early and then ride out the game with long drives. They can score in bunches, but they also can work the clock, and if Auburn wins/covers I think it goes under.

    I see it as for Auburn to cover/win its goes under, for Oregon to cover/win it's 50/50 over or under. I like the bet, we got a better than average shot at winning both, and if Oregon doesn't cover, more than likely the under will hedge half that bet... GL and have enjoyed following your plays this bowl season Sem
     
  14. YoungBuckWG

    YoungBuckWG Well-Known Member
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 28-17, +31.2 Units (MNC Game)

    love the oregon play GL :beerchug:
     
  15. ucfknight333

    ucfknight333 New Member

    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 28-17, +31.2 Units (MNC Game)

    How many units on Oregon if your line is still at +3?
     
  16. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 28-17, +31.2 Units (MNC Game)

    Maybe one more unit. But I see Oregon winning the game outright by 7 or more. 3 would be nice insurance though. Where are you getting that?
     
  17. ucfknight333

    ucfknight333 New Member

    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 28-17, +31.2 Units (MNC Game)

    Bodog...It's -130 though. O/U is at 72.
     
  18. acal09

    acal09 New Member

    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 28-17, +31.2 Units (MNC Game)

    I got +4 (even) from a local guy (Alabama) - he's charging -120 for Auburn -4 or -135 ML... I don't know how some of these guys stay in business
     
  19. kmac1231

    kmac1231 Well-Known Member
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 29-18, +27.9 Units (MNC Game)

    Just wanted to say thanks Sem. 3 years in a row you have done a great job.

    Thank you. :beerchug:
     
  20. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread, 29-18, +27.9 Units (MNC Game)

    No problem. In retrospect, should've had more on the under instead of the side, especially considering how money the system had been on the over/under picks. Still a near 30 unit bowl season and 62%.
     
  21. FearMySpear

    FearMySpear Crafty Veteran
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    Florida State SeminolesAtlanta BravesOrlando MagicTampa Bay Buccaneers

    Great Bowl season FSUsem...looking forward to seeing your picks from here on out as well for the NFL