FSUsem's 2011 College Bowl Season Thread (26-21, +3.5 Units)

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1. I Love Balls,
2. wbarksda,
3. bakonole,
4. OfficialIV,
5. CJH,
6. hawkeyeOUTeast,
7. slogan119,
8. JRodMK1,
9. GovNole,
10. kmsull02,
11. bCUMing7,
12. captbunch

 

I'm ready to keep tailing. 23 minutes until first kickoff.

 

The play has to be A&M but for how many units?

 

How do you have a thread dedicated to your gambling system, then disappear on the 2nd best day of the year?

 

FSUsem

the people are growing angry

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1. I Love Balls,
2. OfficialIV,
3. hawkeyeOUTeast,
4. slogan119,
5. kmsull02,
6. bCUMing7,
7. ucfknight333,
8. GovNole,
9. CJH,
10. wbarksda,
11. slhorn,
12. carlin08,
13. RUseaweed,
14. Debose4Heisman,
15. MBTigerAC,
16. bakonole

 

Sys A, Sys B, SF Power, and SF Outplay all show aTm as an 11-20 point favorite. The line is now around 9. That would tell me that all predictors agree, and that aTm is a good value where the line lays right now, which in my mind is a 5* play. The uncertainty mentioned is worth noting, but it seems that kids play harder for interim coaches, so that might cancel out.

 

Also, favorites are covering at a ridiculous rate lately. I show 9 of the last 10 favorites have covered, or something close to that depending upon the final line.

Oh, and playing in Houston, this is like a home game for aTm.

 

But I just feel like I'm trying to justify what the system shows right now. I need some 3rd party advice.

 

4 star tamu -9
3 star under 70

 

Still 4* if spread is -10?

 

Thanks sem! Let's get it back!

 

This line is starting to get hammered late. It went from 9 to 10 in 15 minutes with my guy.

 

Dibs on Fitzgerald gif

 

Will have the rest of today up by 1:20

 

***GT -1.5

 

**GT/Utah Under 49.5

 

***Illinois -3
**Illinois/UCLA Over 46.5

 

Spread corrected on the GT game

 

*****Cincinnati +2

 

***Cincy/Vandy Under 50.5

 

Cincy still a 5 star at p 1.5? Thanks

 

yes

 

****Virginia +3

 

Why so much confidence in cincinnati?

 

****Texas A&M -9
***Texas A&M/Northwestern Under 70
***GT -1.5
**GT/Utah Under 49.5
***Illinois -3
**Illinois/UCLA Over 46.5
*****Cincinnati +2
***Cincy/Vandy Under 50.5
****Virginia +3

 

Come on field goal...

 

need nw defense to either step up big or lay down for a td

 

Thought the dumptimes would blow it. Phew!

 

Yes! Good start to the day, lets keep it goin.

Hey Sem, if you had to pick one of the remaining plays for today that you thought was the best play, which one would you pick?

 

Cincy.

Have no faith in Vandy. Cincy's defense is underrated.

 

Pass D is suspect.

Trust me I go there.

Didn't want to bet on it. If Rogers is capable of throwing it, games over. Team is ridiculously undisciplined in big games.

 

Cincy D is playing well. Cincy O can't catch a fucking cold.

 

that should have been a fucking td

 

I'll take that one instead.

 

Motherfuckshit, I hate when stuff like this happens. New QB? Oh, let's march right down the field.

Hope this doesn't fuck the rest of the game.

 

Fuuuuuck. good job GA tech, way to hold on to that lead with your great running game

 

These picks have been garbage so far this year. Even most of the wins have been close/lucky for the most part.

 

then dont play them. handicap your own games, but dont come bitching about someone else's picks if all you do is follow. get the fuck out with that shit

 

I hope Cincy takes this fucking QB out that Vandy put in. He is fucking killing it.

 

Are you serious man? It's bowl season, lots of crazy shit happens. And like captbunch said, no one is making you play them. I know Sems history and will follow him for as long as he's generous enough to give us his insight.

Thanks Sem

 

Seriously. The system has worked either 2 or 3 years in a row, and it's almost breaking even this year in a season where we've seen all sorts of weird shit happen.

 

Welp, there goes the under. But it also likely wrapped up the Cincy bet.

Spoiler

I'll take it.

 

I've used this system for 5 years and it has hit over 60% every year.

System Diff A is 13-9 ATS (59%). When A & B are on the same side, it is 6-4 ATS (60%).

After the Cincinnati cover, the picks in the thread are 15-15, -5.0 Units.

Debose, I undeleted the guys post. I don't mind dissent. I welcome it.

 

And the 1st half onsides kick-a-thon continues.

 

Bump for tomorrow's plays.

 

Wisconsin ML tomorrow? Seems like a good value play based on sem's system. Its +180 for me right now.

 

**Penn State +7.5

 

***USCe -2.5
***USCe/Nebraska Under 46

 

****Michigan St./Georgia Under 50.5