2012 Golf Locks

2nd Favorite sport to bet on after football. Has been much more profitable to me over the last couple of years than bases or hoops. Actually was my cash cow in 2011. Gotta pick and choose matchups. I tend to stray away from whole tourney matchups and rarely pick Tourney winners unless there is a weak field. Actually take the field more often than taking an actual golfer when I do pick a tourney winner. Anyways, will use this to track and post picks for the entire season. Feel free to give questions, comments, opinions - but try to keep it clean ya heard?

***All lines/matchups will come from 5dimes. It's the only site I use. So if you use another site and they don't have the same matchups, I'm sorry about that. But I will give an opinion on any matchups you wish to ask about

Farmers Insurance Open - Torrey Pines

1st round matchups:

Snedeker over Yang 1.4u / 1u

Parlay: Rose over Els + Singh over Atwal .75u / 1.5u = .75u / .54u

Might have a Dubai matchup or two later today

 

Snedeker takes Yang by 7 strokes. Easy Cash.

Rose/Els tied up.
Singh up 1 thru 13. Both of these matchups appear to be coming down to the end. Would be a nice day if they hit. Still a + day if they lose

 

2-0-1 in the Farmers tourney today. One play in the 2nd round of Dubai

Tiger +120 over Rory
1.5u / 1.8u

3-0-1 yesterday. Nice way to start the 2012 season.

+3.34units

Just for reference, 1 unit is only $20. Not a high roller. Just do it to make some $ on the side

Looking at matchups today for the Farmers

 

2nd Round of Farmers:

Snedeker -0.5 (-120) over Yang 3u / 2.5u

Pretty big play compared to yesterday, but Yang didn't bring his game this weekend. No clue why they even included this matchup again on the card. 42% Driving accuracy. 60% Greens hit. Guy was scrambling all day, albeit on the tougher of the two courses. Expecting a round close to -9 from Sneddy today. Yang will not be able to keep up with his 270 yard drives going missing the fairways

 

You gotta be selective and not waste all your money on futures bets of "who will win the tournament" just because outside of Tiger in the early 2000s - nobody consistently wins on the PGA tour anymore. too much good competition.

round by round / full tournament head-to-head matchups is where it's at.

 

Vegas figured out tiger was back. Got him down to -115 against Rory for tomorrows round. Yesterday it was +120. I still feel like Tiger At -115 has value. Before the thanksgiving incident with Elin you couldn't get him heads up for less than -130/140. He looks "back" to me and is in contention for the tourney. That's when he plays his best

Tiger -115 over McIlroy 2.3u / 2u

Snedeker was easy $. Guy might win the tourney. Waiting to see who they pair up with him tomorrow

 

That's a tough draw. Mahan is playing really well right now too. He's been solid for 2 years strong. I mean... can they give me an UNDER to take in that one??? Both will beat -5 IMO no way to be confident in taking either side.

Am putting a little 1.5 unit wager on Snedeker to win the tourney +310. Says something when you're 1 back but are favored to win over the guy ahead of you... which Stanley's score is pretty misleading he was -10 on the North course that is giveaway birdies. Saturday and Sunday are both played on the South course where he struggled. Out of the top10, Mahan and Haas are the only two competitors I could see winning it. Allenby is a long shot. I'll take Snedeker at 3X my bet spotting him 3 strokes over his main competitors

1.5u / 4.65u Brandt Snedeker to win the Farmers +310

Also taking one H2H matchup for the 3rd round play tomorrow:

Keegan Bradley -115 over Rickie Fowler 1.73u / 1.5u
Keegan Bradley -1/2 +105 over Fowler 1u / 1.05u

Going against my boy Rickie tomorrow. Had him picked in fantasy golf as my sleeper to win the tourney. Guy isn't putting very well this weekend. Greens are gonna continue firming up tomorrow and will be harder to make em. Bradley had one bad hole on the SC today, a +3 on a par 4. Youth mistake that should have been a bogey at worst. Still shot -4 and only had 1.5 putts per hole. And hit over 75% G/R. Fowler averaging close to 2 putts per hole and playing really conservative. Only 270 yard average off the tee, so I'm pretty sure he's just poking 3 woods out there to stay in the fairway. If Keegan doesn't make anymore stupid decisions he should win this matchup by 3-4 strokes, hence the +juice play for a unit as well. Rickie is the Cali boy favorite and a popular name to throw around but Keegan is the better golfer at this point IMO

Updated record for the weekend:

4-0-1 +5.84units

Still have a couple hours before the Tiger bet closes at 2:30AM TeeTime (God's TimeZone)

 

woke up at 8 and first thought was to check and see if Tiger won

 

Whoa Whoa Whoa... Tiger is +121 to win the Tourney. Vegas GET THE FUCK OUT

Tied for the lead with Robert Rock. If you're asking yourself who the fuck that is, that's exactly what you should be doing. 2 stroke lead on the rest of the field. So you're gonna give me Tiger woods with +121 juice and spot me 2 strokes over the rest of the field???

I'll Bite

Tiger Woods +121 to win the Abu Dhabi tournament 3u / 3.63u

 

Welp Keegan and Brandt didn't have the greatest days. Streak was bound to end sooner or later... Ready for Tigaaaah to tee off

 

Missed on both home run balls. Shoulda walked away with a large profit this weekend. Instead left with a couple peanuts in the black

2.2u / 2u NFC team Over 39.5

Pro bowls tend to go over. Really like the weapons on the NFC. Don't think 6TDs is too much to ask

edit: Had no idea that Snedeker won until I got home from the course today. Pretty much counted that as an L at the end of the 3rd round. Big W right there

 

Can't believe the meltdown on #18 by Stanley. Frustrating sport to play...

Farmers Tally: 4-1-1 +5.96u
Dhabi Tally: 2-1 +0.8u

Total: 6-2-1 +6.76u

1 Early TD for the NFC. Need 5 more to cap a good weekend.

 

Pro Bowl team total was a little closer than I would have liked but still a winner. Thank goodness Antonio Brown was on man coverage vs. Fitzgerald

Weekend Total: 7-2-1 +8.76u

 

Taking a look at the Waste Management Tourney in Phoenix @ TPC Scottsdale. Always a fun tourney to watch. Gonna wait and watch some interviews with players this afternoon to see how everyone is feeling, but did see one "Outright Winner" that I'm gonna put a baby peanut on. I know I said I don't like throwing away money on betting on who is gonna win the tourney, but it's just a half unit play and has a good payout for a player that should at least finish top10 worst case.

0.5u / 17u Bill Haas +340 to win the WM Open

Won the Fedex cup last year. Finished 4th last weekend. Guy is playing good golf. Again it's a long shot bet and just putting a half unit on it for that reason.

Will be back later today/tomorrow with some first round / tourney matchups

 

This one might not look good if you don't keep up with golf, just based on names.

Round 1 Matchup:

Rickie Fowler -125 over Phil Mickelson 1.25u / 1u

Phil tried telling the press last weekend that "his game isn't in as bad of shape as it looks" but it is real rough right now. "Scrambling" really doesn't describe it accurately. It's worse. Rickie has finished 2nd and 13th the last two years in this tournament. He showed last week that his new clubs he changed to this off season are solid for his game. I'll take the guy with 4 under par rounds last week favored vs. a big name player that didn't make the cut a week ago.

Matt Kuchar -105 over Gary Woodland 1.05u / 1u

Kuchar is a lot better golfer than Woodland. Woodland hasn't shot a round in the 60s in the 2 tourneys he's played in this year, I think. Just floats around -2 to +2 in all 8 of his rounds. Gotta be able to score at Scottsdale.

Missed the 1st round of the Qatar Masters this morning. Gonna be looking at Francesco Molinari 2nd round matchup. Guy looks like a little turtle but is consistently in the top25 in European tour tourneys

 

Phil been scrambling all day but gets EVERYTHING up and down from off the greens. Rickie has had a birdie putt on damn near every hole today but cannot make a fuckin putt. AND he just 3-putted the next to last hole to go 1-down to Phil. Fucking

Right pick doesn't always win. here's hoping Fowler birdies #9 and I don't have to highlight that bet in RED

 

Rare CBB play for me tonight. Follow a sharp on one website that knows these small schools in the northeast from coaching up there. I take his word for it when he has a big play.

Manhattan -14.5 over Marist 2.2u / 2u

 

Nice Win on that basketball game. Some random ass teams but a w is a w.

Like the draw for Francesco. Little koopa troopa can swing the stick...

Francesco Molinari -115 over George Coetzee. 1.73u / 1.5u

 

Woodland's round 1 vs. Kuchar suspended due to darkness. He's down 1 with 3 to go.

Qatar tourney suspended due to weather, but Coetzee is +1 through 5 holes.

Haas had a nice opening round yesterday at -2. I just want him to make the cut and then anything can happen. Looking at heads up matchups for the WM Open today and I like this one:

Kevin Na -130 over Robert Garrigus. 1.3u / 1u

I don't think Garrigus is gonna make the cut TBH. His tee shots are all over the map and he can't putt. Na had a pretty scorecard. 13 pars and 5 birdies. Hit most of the fairways and greens and didn't have too much trouble putting. Could probably win this matchup with an even par round.

Thats it for today

 

Woodland came out to finish his 1st round from yesterday and double bogeyd the 1st hole he played. NIIIIICE W to get back the money I lost on Rickie Fowler's 3-putt. Not gonna make daily posts updating the record for each weekend just going to make one at the end on sunday to summarize.

 

On the course all day and didn't get to look at 3rd round lines in either tourney. Can't highlight the results of the last two beta right now but Molinari and Na both won. Good bankroll for tomorrow. Probably gonna post super bowl plays in here just to make the record tracking easier

 

3 years ago i lost my ass in NBA. wrote that league off as un-winable. too many games and those nogs don't play 100% everytime on the court because it doesn't mean anything a lot of games. That's just something you can't cap. Same with baseball. Those are tough leagues to win in consistently. Made one bet last year in NBA = Knicks ML the first game they had melo against the Cavs I think is who they played. Lost $340 because they got beat straight up, in MSG, with melo and chauncy. Haven't looked at an NBA line since. May cruise by your thread during the early weekdays b/c I'm an action junkie.

will be getting on this even though somehow I lose on it the majority of the time. +150 is good value for something that could easily happen

 

One play for golf today and it tees off in 20 minutes so gonna tag a couple guys just in case you don't check the thread often WU36 GO_IRISH

Phil Mickelson -0.5 strokes -109 over Kyle Stanley 2.18u / 2u

Phil flew in Butch Harmon for a lesson yesterday morning and then had a solid round yesterday afternoon. Smart play by him IYAM because he was rough his first 4 rounds of the year before this. Stanley had some trouble yesterday when they started moving the pins to tougher locations. I think the Sunday pins will give him trouble, and after last weeks melt down, I don't think he has a winning mentality. Phil very well could blow the F up and shoot a 75, but he looked good yesterday.

 

SuperBowl Plays: will edit/add to this post if more plays added before the game or 2nd half

Under 27.5 1st half (-125): 2.5u / 2u

Gotkowski OVER 1.5 FGs made (-140): 1.4u / 1u

Game - UNDER 54: 3.3u / 3u

More points scored in 2nd half than 1st half -130: 1.3u / 1u

TAILS NEVER FAILS: 1u / 1u

might be it for me. Hate loading up on 100 different props and end up breaking even. Really just want the under in 1h and game and gotkowski to make some fgs

 

Recap for the weekend:

Golf -

Futures: 0-1 -0.5u

H2H: 4-2 +0.07u (fucking fat phil )

NCAAB: 1-0 +2u

NFL: 2-2-1 +2.6u

Total: +4.17u

2012 Total: +12.93u

Few silly bets this weekend. Probably not taking anymore shots on Odds to WIN Tourneys unless it's a major. Also knew there was a chance Bitchtits Mickelson had a shit day trying to catch the leader from 8 strokes back and it happened. Never should have put a 2 unit bet on him. Never again. Oh well... Another weekend in the black. Hopefully keep it rolling on along in 2012

 

Taking a couple more basketball picks from my guy on another forum and parlaying them. Nothing big... more of an action play for tonight because I'll be watching the Uconn/Louisville game

Parlay:

Uconn +5 (-130) / Elon ML -125 1u / 2.19u

 

Might sound like a DEGEN-special... but money won on women's tennis is the same money you get if you win on any other sport. All 3 pretty big favorites. Pretty standard lines for opening rounds of any tourney. But normally they give easy matchups to the top seeds in these random qualifier tennis tourneys.

3-match parlay:

Voskoboeva -335 / Kirilenko -385 / Cibulkova -360 1u / 1.09u

 

On the right side of one blowout and wrong side of another blowout in the CBB Parlay. Got one more pick tonight = action play because it's on TV, and the fighting dumptimes are playing bad ball these days:

Texas -3 over TexasA&M 1.1u/1u

 

Well fuck me 0/3 to start the week on action plays. That Texas loss was pretty sick losing on a bs free throw with 3 seconds left.

Just gonna lay low til Thursday

 

Have tried and can't resist... Taking Auburn and the Under tonight.

AU +5.5 / Under 121 parlay 1u / 2.73u

 

Got an alert today that Sportsbook graced my account with $10 for free. Decided to add a little peanut to that and play around with it. Got these two for the Pro-AM today. Pretty small plays. Not a huge fan of betting on people while they're playing with amateurs

Hunter Mahan -0.5 -110 over Geoff Oglivy 1.65u / 1.5u

Bud Cauley -135 over Ricky Barnes 1.35u / 1u

Mahan been playing good all year. Not in contention to win every week but hanging at the top of the leaderboard.

Cauley playing with Saban today from what I hear. If that's not motivation to play your best game, I don't know what is.

 

Lost Cauley yesterday, I guess Bellichik had a better gameplan for his man Barnes than Saban did. Outcoached

Mahan looked sharp as hell yesterday. Hit almost every fairway and green. Oglivy on the other hand just couldn't get his game together. They played on the Peninsula course which is by far the easiest of the 3 they play thurs-sat. They'll be on a little more difficult course today so I'm gonna bet that Mahan can handle the added difficulty and Oglivy cannot.

Mahan -0.5 (-125) over Oglivy 1.25u / 1u

 

Mahan is up 3 strokes with 2 holes to go and finishes Bogey-Par which Oglivy finishes Birdie-Eagle

Un.Freakin.Real. Not gonna be around a computer at all this weekend so probably gonna call it quits on this tourney. Too hard to cap when they are playing with amateurs anyways.

 

Week recap

Stupid non-golf junkie bets: 0-4 -4.1u

Pebble Beach matchups: 1-2 -1.1u

Week Total: 1-6 -5.2u

Season Total: +7.73u

 

WU36 - just checked them out. Got one minimum wager play on an outright winner and one 1st round matchup

50-1 Padraig Harrington to win the Northern Trust Open 0.25u / 12.5u

long shot, but it's a very small wager with a good payout. Normally don't play these kinds of bets but it's $5 and I think he should win at least once this year.

1st round matchup:

Aaron Baddely +115 over Adam Scott 1.5u / 1.73u

Bad is playing pretty strong. Scott's 1st tourney this year on the tour. Baddely has historically played well here

Only play for today

 

Baddelly one up on #17 tee and bogeys it to tie

Oh well a push > a loss they say

 

WU36 we're gonna get em with this one. feel real good about it, which scares me.

Luke Donald -130 over Adam Scott 3.9u / 3u

#1 player in the world. Playing some solid golf this year so far. Had a solid round yesterday in the AM round, which played tougher than the PM rounds. Scott missed a ton of greens and fairways yesterday. Just scrambled really well. Obviously his game isn't in major form yet. I was tempted to play the -0.5 strokes for better juice but shit happens. Like the SU win

 

On a little bit of a tough stretch the last 2 weeks. Was expected, what goes up - must come down. Couple of tough breaks by Baddelly and Donald lost their matchups. But I'm pretty sure I was on the right side of both of those. I know I was on the right side of Baddelly, but you can't cap people blowing up on a single hole that ties/loses a match for you. Like trying to handicap fluke INTs/Fumbles that get returned for TDs.

Oh well. Still up on the year and have match play this weekend. MUCH more fun to bet on that random matchups where players don't even know they're playing "against anyone." Will definitely have some solid plays this week -- Starts TOMORROW AFTERNOON - WEDNESDAY.

2012 Season: +3.58 Units

 

Round 1 Plays

I feel like Snedeker is still playing some fantastic golf. Posted a 1st round 75 last week but came back with -5 thru his next 54 holes. Goosen had 1 good day on Friday last week and then 3 rounds over par. I think he tends to play better outside of the US personally. He's had a couple of good this year on the Euro. But not playing as good as Brandt so far this year.

Snedeker -135 over Goosen 3.3u / 2.5u

Small play on a 1st round dog:

Manassero +145 over Webb Simpson 1.5u / 2.2u

Couple of first time players in this event. Manassero is a solid golfer. Could easily win this matchup for a good price.

Aaaand just to do it... 4-Golfer Parlay: 1.5u / 7.14u
(pays 4.76-1)
Rory -195 over Coetzee
Poulter -180 over Bae
Haas -155 over Ishikawa
*** Day -200 over Bello

Only one I wouldn't call a pretty big upset would be Haas, but the way Ishikawa has been playing this year... he should be an early exit in this tourney.

Had to edit the Parlay bc they wouldn't let me put Tiger and Rory in the same one. Went with Jason Day instead

 

Also going against the normal No Future rule on this one simply because it's match play the whole way through and not a "field" tournament.

Tiger has won it 3 times in the last 8 years. His game is pretty sharp. He may not have been able to put together 4 great rounds yet to win the tourneys he's played in this year (which were all loaded fields) - but he's played some great golf, shot some low rounds and showed huge improvement from last year. I'll take a chance on him.

Tiger woods to win the WGC Accenture +1400 1u / 14u

 

leaning towards these: (not sure if I pull the trigger, if I do I'll post before they tee off)

Oglivy over Bradley
Stanley over Choi
Jacobson over Karlsson
Toms over Fowler