I overcame a lot of shitty breaks during the season, but this bowl season has been a total shit show. Need msu and the under just to break even today. I might be done if I lose any more money.
I'm ashamed to say what I have gone over the last 13 bets I've placed. Like I feel it's near impossible to do as bad as I have done.
I just don't understand why the hell MSU keeps getting away from the run game. I would run it every fucking time
-10 Saturday, December 29 ***AFA/Rice Over 60.5 **AFA -3 ****Syracuse/WVU Under 74 ****Oregon St -3 ***Michigan St +3 ***MSU/TCU Under 41 +1 I was discouraged so I didn't load up on wvu under.
Only play wvu and Syracuse yesterday. Keeping up with this thread has been tougher than the last couple years.
rode the sheet until I took TCU -1.5 last night yesterday sucked pretty bad outside of WVU under time to rape the NFL....so far I like Falcons -3.5 Packers -3.5 Saints -5
Tried that 1st half under and doubling up on the 2nd half did not work for me 2 out of 3 times yesterday. Yeah that got out of hand quickly there.
The sheet is doing much better than my picks. Again, the picks in the thread are based not strictly on the sheet but also intangibles not accounted for in the sheet. Rarely do I go against the sheet though. If you were to strictly follow system a, you'd be 11-8 and up money. System B is 10-8. System A is great at identifying underdogs. Where it has called the underdog to win outright, system a is a perfect 4-0 ATS. My picks are 12-13. We've won 36 units and lost 38 units. When you add in the vig, my picks stand at -5.8 units.
Gonna wait on some line movement for plays on the side in the chikfila bowl and the total in the Liberty bowl.
Marquise Lee might be out, but nothing definite after he got hurt in practice yesterday. Edit: reason it's prob off the board
In reference to GT/USC tomorrow: I obviously am not privy to the things that go into Sem's model, so I can't say with any sort of certainty, but I believe the sheet might have a blind spot on option teams. Last year, the sheet liked GT huge and they lost outright to Utah. This year, it liked Air Force huge, and they were beaten to death by Rice. I suggest that there are some structural value problems with option teams in bowl games. These teams benefit during the season when their opponents only have three or four days of practice time to prepare for an unfamiliar offense. To me, this suggests that the predictive value of those offensive numbers is lessened when it comes to bowl games. As a team gets more time to prepare for an option offense, it will be better able to handle the assignment difficulties. I believe Georgia Tech's results bear this out. Paul Johnson personally has lost six straight bowl games. And he's lost all four at GT. Four years ago, he lost by five touchdowns as a 4-point favorite to LSU. The next year, GT came in as a near touchdown favorite and lost by three scores to Iowa. The next year, GT was a small underdog to Air Force and lost. Last year, Tech was favored over Utah and lost what was admittedly a very wild game. So far in bowl season, we have seen both option teams (Navy & AF) get blown out and we have seen their offenses get dominated. My judgement is that teams like Georgia Tech tend to have their value inflated in bowl games, since their good offensive numbers during the season are unlikely to be matched in the bowl game. It is difficult to draw conclusions with such a small sampling of games, but evidence suggests that teams with a bye week before GT also have much more success in shutting them down. Thoughts?
I've identified that and is the reason why I scratched my navy play and also do not have a play on GT which the sheet likes. This is also the reason why I've focused the play on the under.