Welp Addy's inability to throw is probably going to fuck us this inning. And catch now apparently too. God damnit. Jake pitching a gem too.
He has pretty glaring win probability and clutch stats (scroll down a quarter of the way) http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15429&position=3B And it's a pattern... http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-one-problem-with-kris-bryants-mvp-case/ Less advanced stats: Bryant is .218/.326/.449 with RISP (91 PA) .178/.327/.311 with RISP/2 outs (54 PA) .220/.412/.380 close and late In contrast Willson is a mind boggling .373/.467/.840 with RISP (91 PA) .406/.513/.875 with RISP/2 outs (38 PA) Again I love the man, but there's nothing controversial about stating he needs to produce more in those critical instances. And alluding to one at bat is just weird. Believe he struck out with RISP the previous inning versus Bradley before Rizzo two out walk and Willson's two out bases loaded 2-RBI single.
Well first of all, those sample sizes are so small that they are actually meaningless. His line drive percentage is highest with men in scoring position this year and his ground ball percentage is the lowest and yet his batting average is lowest in that situation. Also his strikeout rate is highest with no one on, lowest with runners in scoring position. That says he's experiencing some pretty shitty luck.
Go look at Harper's clutch rates, they are all over the place. Same with Rizzo. When you see huge variance in stats like that it means there's a problem either in the way its calculated (sample size) or how meaningful it is (its actual predictive value)
We will disagree then. I don't find a season and a half worth of plate appearances in these instances to be strictly random. It's enough to suggest a pattern for me. His line drive and hard hit rates are down this year so his luck will realllly have to change for his critical production to increase. If it is down to random chance, then it ought to.
But its not a season and a half, you posted it yourself its like 90 plate appearances. Wilson Contreras was -.62 last year and .88 this year. Did he go from being unclutch to clutch? Or is it just noise? Harper went from -2.46 (2nd worst in all of baseball) to 1.15 (which was 15th in all of baseball). Did he get way better between his 4th and 5th seasons of his career or is it a dumb, imperfect stat? This year by the way he's at .17 which is good for 57th in baseball.
His risp stats from 2016 were also significantly deflated from his overall production. When I cited a year and a half I was indicating the fangraphs blog from 2016 in addition to this year re: wpa/clutch 2016 -2.37 2017 -2.13 I think it's enough to take notice. If it's random noise/bad luck then great; it should change. And it will have to.
Bryant has a career .340 BABIP, he's at .218 this year with runners in scoring position. In 2016 it was .305 with RISP.
It's worth noticing for me. It isn't for you. That's totally fine. Didn't see this from Taylor earlier. Think he comes to same conclusion. Low sample size but "its on the radar." I agree. And I'll end here. http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/...coring-position-and-in-high-leverage-moments/
When you have nothing else to bitch about... Anyways the bullpen battle during the rain break was awesome. Good job both teams
If we don't get at least 4 runs off Edwin Jackson today I'm gonna be quite perturbed. Lost 3 of the last 4. Need to get back on track.
Oh well... not sure why Rondon or Wilson aren't the guy for the 8th. Madden just loves being the smartest guy in the room
Does it get any more fun than Javy and Willy? Who was the last Cubs with an inside the parker, Tony Campana?
I guess Riz had one against the Reds last year. Somehow I don't remember that. edit: Just saw a link to it. Was the play where Billy Hamilton took the ball to the face. I remember that now. Classic Reds.
I was confused, couldn't Contreras have taken off to first and saved the out? He was never touched. I admittedly don't know the nuances. I thought on a swinging third strike with the ball in the dirt he could have gone to 1b instead of the dugout.
Our defense just isn't anywhere near what it was last year. Bumgarner going tomorrow. Going to really suck if we lose 2/3 to the shitty ass Giants.
Hendricks had to work his ass off to get through 4 2/3. Hopefully the bullpen can get back to form. Gonna need em today.
Didn't look good for Willy. Hope he's ok, but I fully expect he'll be on the DL for a while and Caratini will get called back up.