In the past I've had success betting the team with the most returning starters (especially playing at home) the first week of the year. Using http://blog.philsteele.com/2012/01/20/2012-returning-starters/ to determine the number of returning starters, because its not that accurate I am only gonna count games between teams with a difference 2. I haven't bet so far this year due to being a poor graduate student, but I thought I would start a thread to track the results. Obviously this wouldn't be they only thing I would look at, but helps when narrowing down games to research farther. Thursday night Results (Only games between two FBS teams, excluding UMASS game due to their first year in FBS) Vandy 18 USC 14 W 1-0 UCF 15 @Akron 15 -- 1-0 Eastern Mich 18 @Ball St. 16 L 1-1 UCLA 16 @Rice 11 W 2-0 @BYU 17 Washington St. 15 W 3-1 @UNLV 15 Minn 13 W 4-1 Last night it went 4-1 with the only lose being a team with only a difference of 2 (min) playing on the road. Fri night UT 20 @NCSU 16 @MSU 14 Boise 6 @ Stanford 14 SJST 11
Friday results UT W 5-1 @MSU L 5-2 @Stanford L (barring a miracle) 5-3 Stanford is showing why you don't follow any trend or stat blindly. The players they lost were obviously not your run of the mill defections.
Sat games that fit ND 15 Navy 13 Troy 15 @UAB 11 @UGA 15 Buffalo 13 @SU 14 NW 12 Ohio 15 @PSU 12 *not counting defections since the sanctions @WVU 16 Marshall 12 BC 19 Miami 12 @Neb 16 USM 12 Colorado St. 18 @CU14 AU 18 CU 14 FIU 19 @Duke 16 N. Texas 18 @LSU 14 usc 17 Hawaii 12 @UT 17 Wyoming 14 @tulane 17 Rutgers 15 Mich 16 UA 13 @zona 12 Toledo 9 @Oregon 13 Ark St. 10 OU 17 @UTEP 13 @Wash 14 SDST 12
ND W 6-3 Troy W 7-3 UGA L 7-4 SU L 7-5 Ohio W 8-5 WVU W 9-5 4-2 based on closing lines in the morning games, Syracuse could have been a win or a push if you shopped lines
BC L 9-6 Neb W 10-6 CSU W 11-6 AU L 11-7 FIU L 11-8 N. Texas W 12-8 USC L 12-9 UT L 12-10 UM L 12-11 Tulane 13-11