2012 Triple Crown Trail

Mark Valeski is out of the Derby and will be pointed toward the Peter Pan. Optimizer is now in the field. Neither are real contenders in my view, so this really is inconsequential.

Derby Draw is tomorrow at 5PM ET. Obviously nobody wants to draw the rail in this race, but the horses that the draw is most important to are the three speed horses- Trinniberg, Hansen, and Bodemeister. Trinniberg won't get the distance, so when it comes to his chances, post position is not too important, but the effect it will have on Hansen and Bodemeister will be bigger. Ideally for Bodemeister and Hansen, you want to be drawn in the second half of the field, whereas Trinniberg would be drawn inside of them. The best chance they have will be rating and stalking Trinniberg on the outside.

 

I didn't bet Ruler On Ice last year (the two horses I liked were AK and Brilliant Speed), but him winning didn't totally surprise me. Shackleford winning the Preakness was the weird one to me. He ran well the two prior races, but with Flashpoint in that race, I thought the pace would be too quick for him.

I probably still have Creative Cause as my top pick pre-draw, but this comment from his trainer gives me serious pause:

Based off of that, he's another horse where it would be beneficial to be drawn in the outer half of the field.

 

I had a hard time getting past his Fountain of Youth, he just did absolutely nothing that race.

I always seem to undersell runners that Romans trains in these races- Paddy O'Prado, First Dude, and Shackleford all performed much better than I thought they would in the Derby/Preakness. I don't like Dullahan in this spot. That probably means he'll finish in the top 3.

 

Kentucky Derby Post Positions:

1. Daddy Nose Best (30-1)
2. Optimizer (50-1)
3. Take Charge Indy (15-1)
4. Union Rags (9/2)
5. Dullahan (8-1)
6. Bodemeister (4-1)
7. Rousing Sermon (50-1)
8. Creative Cause (12-1)
9. Trinniberg (50-1)
10. Daddy Nose Best (15-1)
11. Alpha (15-1)
12. Prospective (30-1)
13. Went The Day Well (20-1)
14. Hansen (10-1)
15. Gemologist (6-1)
16. El Padrino (20-1)
17. Done Talking (50-1)
18. Sabercat (30-1)
19. I'll Have Another (12-1)
20. Liaison (50-1)

Of the top horses, Gemologist drew the best. Hansen and Creative Cause I think drew very well also. There wasn't any horse that drew horribly among the top horses, but Bodemeister probably had the worst draw, with Trinniberg and Hansen outside of him. Also don't think Union Rags got an ideal post.

 

PP's for the Derby
http://www.drf.com/sites/default/files/HGDERBY.pdf

My Breakdown for each horse:
1. Daddy Nose Best: He's a good horse, and he's run (and won) further than anyone else in the race, but his one race on dirt was a disaster. He is superior on turf and synthetics. Braking from the rail doesn't help him either, but I was against him before the draw. Not using.
2. Optimizer: Good distance pedigree, and will benefit by a fast pace. With that said, he just isn't good. Not using.
3. Take Charge Indy: Ran well in his first two starts of the year, and will have a nice stalking trip behind the leaders. Borel doesn't have to go too far to get to the rail. Because of Borel, he'll be overbet. I think he has a good future, and I could consider him in the exotics. Don't think he will win though.
4. Union Rags: Despite Bodemeister being the morning line favorite, I would guess that by post time, he will be the favorite. There is no doubt he is talented, but I think he's a bit overrated. I don't think he's improved as a 3 year old, and I'm still not convinced he wants to go this far. He also has a history of finding trouble. Not using.
5. Dullahan: He's probably the best 3YO American turf horse, and he was very impressive winning the Blue Grass, but I just don't think he's quite as good on dirt. I do tend to underestimate Romans horses in these races, and I think he'll run a good race. Just don't think he'll finish in the top 4. Not using.
6. Bodemeister: Despite being inside the other speed horses, he is still the horse to beat. He's the only horse you can say that doesn't need to improve off of his last race to win. If he can relax and not spend too much energy chasing after Trinniberg, he'll be the horse to catch turning from home. Win contender.
7. Rousing Sermon: A lot of the extreme long shots in this race are closers. If I were to use one to get into the back of the exotics, he would be the one. He finished third in the Louisiana Derby closing into a speed favoring track, and he had a good workout over the Churchill surface. He's not winning, but he could be that weird horse that finishes 4th to complete the superfecta.
8. Creative Cause: No horse is more consistent. Great pedigree and has shown he can run a fast race. Should sit a good trip in the middle of the pack before making his move on the far turn. He's my top selection.
9. Trinniberg: He'll lead until the far turn, then he'll drop back and finish 18th. Should have ran last Saturday in the Derby Trial. He's a very good sprinter, but he has no chance with this distance. Not using.
10. Daddy Nose Best: He is definitely the 'wise guy' horse leading up to the Derby. He's the only horse to have won two graded stakes at a mile and an eighth, and has shown grit in each win. His race in the Sunland Derby puts him with the top contenders, and he'll get a good pace setup. Plus he has been working great on the Churchill track, particularly for an Asmussen horse. The problem is everybody seems to like this horse as their 'sleeper.' Those horses almost always seem to disappoint. I could use him in exotics, but probably not anything beyond that.
11. Alpha: If this horse is able to settle in the gate, he is one of my top contenders. There is no guarantee that this will happen, and him being one of the first horses to load will likely not help him. He schooled at the gate today without any problem. He also had his training briefly interrupted with a small injury coming out of the Wood, but his one workout since was strong. He's a boom or bust sort of horse, but I think he has a chance. Fringe win contender.
12. Prospective: He's been working well at Churchill, but he hasn't beat anyone good to date, and the two races he's gone against this caliber, he's finished 13th and 6th. Not using.
13. Went the Day Well: So many comparison are being made between him and Animal Kingdom, but I don't see it. Animal Kingdom could run all day, and I can't say the same for him. His Spiral didn't impress me all that much, and while he did win his maiden on dirt, he moved up significantly on synthetic. Not using.
14. Hansen: He drew as well as he could, and he may be the second most talented horse in this race behind Bodemeister. I just think that this is a bit too far for him. Not using.
15. Gemologist: He's done nothing wrong in his career, and watching him run in the Wood, it looked like there was more in him, he just didn't use it until he was challenged by Alpha. His workouts have been very similar to how he was working in the lead up to the Wood. Win contender.
16. El Padrino: I was down on this horse for so long, then just I begin to like him, he shows me why I thought he was being a bit overhyped with his mediocre performance in the Derby. With that said, he was due for some regression. He does have a fantastic pedigree, and has run fast enough races to be competitive. He might be the one horse I have no idea what to do with. At 20-1, though, I can use him in the exotics.
17. Done Talking: He's the slowest horse in the race. He got a perfect setup in the Illinois Derby, but the final time was so much slower than the rest of the preps. Not using.
18. Sabercat: Another long shot closer who clunked up to finish third in the Arkansas Derby. The fact that he couldn't pass Secret Circle in a mile and an eighth race tells me what I need to know about him. Not using.
19. I'll Have Another: He's ran very well in his two races this year. If he runs like he did in those two races, he's a contender. He just seems like a horse that is due for a regression to me. I'm not thrilled with how he has been campaigned. Not using.
20. Liaison: Hasn't been the same horse at 3 that he was at 2. He's run better on synthetics. Plus I question him getting the distance. Not using.

To sum it up:
Win contenders: Bodemeister (6), Creative Cause (8), Alpha (11), Gemologist (15)
Exotics contenders: Take Charge Indy (3), Rousing Sermon (7), Daddy Nose Best (10), El Padrino (16)

Selections:
1. Creative Cause
2. Bodemeister
3. Gemologist

 

Some quick picks for other races this weekend at Churchill:

Friday-
La Troienne, Race 6: Plum Pretty (4)
Eight Belles, Race 7: Contested (7)
Edgewood, Race 8: Stephanie's Kitten (3)
Alysheba, Race 9: Nate's Mineshaft (1)
American Turf, Race 10: Gung Ho (2)
Kentucky Oaks, Race 11: Summer Applause (3)

Saturday-
Turf Sprint, Race 6: Great Attack (2)
Churchill Downs, Race 7: Amazombie (6)
Churchill Distaff Turf Mile, Race 8: Hungry Island (10)
Humana Distaff, Race 9: Sassy Image (3)
Turf Classic, Race 10: Brilliant Speed (10)

 

Well done.

 

Looks like a field of between 11 and 13 for the Preakness. The two on the fence are Liaison and Daddy Nose Best.

The 11 that are in, with their last performance:
I'll Have Another- 1st Derby
Bodemeister- 2nd Derby
Went The Day Well- 4th Derby
Creative Cause- 5th Derby
Optimizer- 11th Derby
Cozetti- 4th Arkansas Derby
Guyana Star Dweej- 2nd Belmont Allowance
Pretension- 1st Canonero II
Teeth of the Dog- 3rd Wood Memorial
Tiger Walk- 4th Wood Memorial
Zetterholm- 1st Patsyprospect

I think there is a significant difference between the top four horses and the rest of the field. Optimizer and Cozetti have already proven they can't keep up with Bodemeister. Guyana Star Dweej lost by over 6 lengths in allowance competition last time out. Pretension won a slow Canonero II over My Adonis, but before finished 5th and 9th in the Gotham and Illinois Derbies- neither a strong race. Teeth of the Dog and Tiger Walk are coming out of a Wood Memorial that showed poorly in the Derby.

If a horse can break through the top four, Zetterholm would be the one in my opinion. Its a step up in class for him, and he hasn't run that fast race (top Beyer of 85), but he's won three straight, and could pass some tiring horses late. The issue for him will be the pace- there should be a slower pace in the Preakness, which will only benefit Bodemeister and I'll Have Another, and may hurt a closer like Zetterholm (and to a lesser extent Went The Day Well). But not only does he need to improve, he needs the top contenders to bounce off of the quick 2 week turnaround from the Derby to the Preakness, and the top four appear to all have come out of the race in good shape. Still, Zetterholm will be a good price, and could be worth giving a look to.

 

Exactly how I'm seeing it.

 

Draw is sometime today. It will be a field of 12, with Daddy Nose Best joining the other 11.

 

Make it a field of 11, as longshot Guyana Star Dweej will not be entered.

 

Just wanted to have a fresh horse for the Belmont.

 

The Preakness field:

1. Tiger Walk, 30-1
2. Teeth of the Dog, 15-1
3. Pretension, 30-1
4. Zetterholm, 20-1
5. Went the Day Well, 6-1
6. Creative Cause, 6-1
7. Bodemeister, 8-5
8. Daddy Nose Best, 12-1
9. I'll Have Another, 6-1
10. Optimizer, 30-1
11. Cozzetti, 30-1

 

Preakness PP's:

http://www.drf.com/sites/default/files/HGPREAKNESS.pdf

 

Thoughts on a couple of today's races at Pimlico, before getting to the Preakness:

Friday Race 10: Black Eyed Susan

Mamma Kimbo is the horse to beat. I wonder if she wants to run this far though- horses sired by Discreet Cat seem to hit a wall as the distances increase, and she is facing a couple of tougher horses today. The two horses I like are Welcome Guest and In Lingerie. Of the two, I prefer In Lingerie. Her best race was on synthetic, but she's been working well on dirt in preparation for this race. She should like the added distance, and I think she's primed to run a big race.

1. In Lingerie (7)
2. Welcome Guest (3)
3. Mamma Kimbo (4)

Friday Race 12: Pimlico Special

If there was one race to bet this weekend, this is it, as there are many directions you could go in. The favorite is Mission Impazible- a horse that always seems to finish 2nd or 3rd in big races, but he's only one once in his past 14 starts or so. It features two prominent horses from the Triple Crown trail last year in Nehro (2nd in the Derby) and Toby's Corner (won the Wood before getting hurt the week before the Derby). I prefer Toby's Corner of the two, because Nehro doesn't seem like the horse he was last year in his two starts this year. Both are question marks though. Alternation has ran great his last three starts, but he had the easiest trip in the world the past two starts, and it's fair to wonder if he is just better at Oaklawn than other tracks. Endorsement has been getting some hype as of late, but I wonder if the pace will be slightly too fast for him. I also think the pace goes against Yawanna Twist and Eighttofasttocatch, and I don't think they want to run this far anyways. The horse I like is Hymn Book, who won the Donn Handicap a couple months ago. He was great on Donn day, but was a disappointment in the Oaklawn Handicap, finishing 4th behind Alternation. But Hymn Book was didn't get a good pace setup, and it should improve this time out. He runs the same that he did on Donn day, he wins. Cherokee Artist is a long shot that I think has a real chance as well- after years of running on turf/synthetic, he finally ran on dirt last time out and responded with a 104 Beyer- tops in the field among each horses last race. He also ran credibly as a 3 year old on dirt.

1. Hymn Book (3)
2. Cherokee Artist (4)
3. Mission Impazible (6)
4. Toby's Corner (1)

Saturday Race 12: Preakness Stakes

1. Tiger Walk (30-1): He ran in all three of the New York series of graded stakes, and only finished top three in the Withers, which was a weak prep race. Not using.
2. Teeth of the Dog (15-1): He ran well in the Wood, finishing third. But it was pretty clear that the first two finishers in Gemologist and Alpha were the best, and they returned to do nothing in the Derby. He is improving, but I don't think it will be enough. Not using.
3. Pretension (30-1): He's run in two graded stakes. He was beaten 9 1/4 lengths by Hansen in the Gotham, and by 13 1/4 lengths by Done Talking in the Illinois Derby. His best race, the Canonero II, received an 83 Beyer, far below the competition. Not using.
4. Zetterholm (20-1): There are a ton of reasons why he is a long shot: he's faced weak competition- best competition was against New York state bred horses in an overnight stakes, and that came back with a career best Beyer of 85- far below the top horses. On top of that, he is a deep closer, so he will need a quick pace- something he may not get. With that said, he intrigues me a bit. He hasn't had a fast pace to run into in any of his wins, which helped limit how high his Beyer actually was. He also ran wide on the turn in both of his last two wins. He looks like an improving horse, and while I don't think he can win, getting into the exotics is a possibility.
5. Went the Day Well (6-1): He definitely ran well in finishing 4th in the Derby, and was visually the most impressive runner in the stretch. I wonder if that was a bit of an illusion, and it was more due to other horses slowing down. He's a contender, but of the four top horses, I like him the least. Exotics contender.
6. Creative Cause (6-1): He ran further than any horse in the Derby, being forced 8 wide around the far turn. He actually had the fastest average speed of any horse in the Derby- even ahead of I'll Have Another and Bodemeister. I think he may get the biggest improvement in trip this time around, and he has beaten the top two finishers in his career (granted, I'll Have Another was last year). I'll give him another shot. Win contender.
7. Bodemeister (8-5): The pace will certainly be easier for him, but I wonder if I'll Have Another will pressure him enough to just exert enough energy not to hold off Creative Cause. If I'll Have Another lets him go, then as long as he doesn't bounce, he wins. Win contender.
8. Daddy Nose Best (12-1): One of the biggest Derby disappointments. Just think he's a cut below the others. Not using.
9. I'll Have Another (5-2): He'll be the horse that is tracking Bodemeister. He is as adaptable as any 3YO in the country, as shown in the Derby, and he came out of the Derby in good shape. The pace dynamics of the race will largely be determined by him- he will likely have a trip similar to the Santa Anita Derby- only Bodemeister is a hell of a lot better than Blueskiesandrainbows. He's the third horse that I can see winning.
10. Optimizer (30-1): No matter how many times you send him on dirt in graded stakes, the result is still the same. Six tries in dirt graded stakes, and only twice was he better than 8th. Not using.
11. Cozzetti (30-1): Was well beaten by Bodemeister in the Arkansas Derby. He actually could have been a sneaky long shot for the exotics had the track came up wet, but it will be a fast track. Not using.

Preakness Selections:
1. Creative Cause (6)
2. Bodemeister (7)
3. I'll Have Another (9)
4. Zetterholm (4)

 

I know how you are feeling: I went back in forth between doing a tri box or a super box with the top four- ended up doing the tri box.

 

He didn't beat anyone, but Paynter looked fantastic on the Preakness undercard. Before the year started, he was actually the horse Baffert thought was his best 3YO. I think he's definitely the main competition.


It will be interesting to see how the betting goes between I'll Have Another, Paynter, Union Rags, and Dullahan. I wonder if Paynter may drift up a little bit because he lacks the name value of the other three.

I'm not the biggest Dullahan fan in the world, but how is he the same odds as Optimizer? I can understand being ahead of some horses like Alpha and Mark Valeski because it is uncertain whether they run in the Belmont, but that isn't an issue with Dullahan. I don't understand how you can look at these two horses and say that they are equal in betting value.

 

Looks like a field of 11 is lining up for the Belmont. The odds listed are from Mike Watchmaker of the Daily Racing Form:

I'll Have Another, 3-5
Dullahan, 5-1
Union Rags, 6-1
Paynter, 8-1
Street Life, 15-1
Optimizer, 30-1
Atigun, 30-1
Unstoppable U, 30-1
Five Sixteen, 50-1
Ravelo's Boy, 50-1
Guyana Star Dweej, 50-1

 

I'd prefer Paynter at 8-1. He's run faster races, and I have more confidence in him getting the distance.

 

Field of 12 was drawn today, with My Adonis a late entrant.

1. Street Life, 12-1
2. Unstoppable U, 30-1
3. Union Rags, 6-1
4. Atigun, 30-1
5. Dullahan, 5-1
6. Ravelo's Boy, 50-1
7. Five Sixteen, 50-1
8. Guyana Star Dweej, 50-1
9. Paynter, 8-1
10. Optimizer, 20-1
11. I'll Have Another, 4-5
12. My Adonis, 20-1

 

My Belmont breakdown:

1. Street Life: He continues to improve, running the fastest race of his career last time out with his third place finish in the Peter Pan, and I don't believe distance should be a problem. But he had a great pace setup last time out, and I don't think he'll get that this time out, and he's facing tougher horses to boot. He'd need to take a giant step forward while others regress to win, and I don't see that happening this weekend. I think down the road, he could win some big races, but for the Belmont, I'd only use him in the exotics.
2. Unstoppable U: Undefeated in two stars, but neither race was fast, and hasn't beat anyone of note (beating Guyana Star Dweej is not noteworthy). He had a perfect setup in his allowance win over Guyana Star Dweej, setting an easy pace, yet still only ran an 82 Beyer. An frontrunner stepping way up in class off of setting a slow pace while running 1/2 mile further? Not using.
3. Union Rags: I'm still waiting for him to show on the racetrack why he is so hyped. Did he get ideal trips in either the Florida or Kentucky Derbies? No. But this horse has a knack of finding trouble, and it is also fair to question whether or not he's progressed from 2 to 3. The two positives with him are that his best career race was run over the Belmont track in the Champagne last year, and I think John Velasquez is a better jockey for this horse than Leparoux. But I don't think added distance will benefit him, and of the top contenders, he is the one I like the least. Even with his faults, though, he is clearly better than the majority of the field. But I don't think he can win. Exotics contender.
4. Atigun: In his three graded stakes attempts, he has never finished better than 5th. He's another one run closer in a race that won't have a ton of speed. Not using.
5. Dullahan: I'm still not convinced that his best races won't eventually be run on turf and synthetics, but he has put in good efforts during his last two attempts on the dirt, and he wowed observers with his workout this week. Plus he gets a positive jockey switch upgrading to Castellano. The problem I have with him is that he had a great pace setup in the Derby, and appeared to hang a little bit. He won't get that pace setup here. He is one of the three win contenders for me, but I would rank him third of those three.
6. Ravelo's Boy: Finished 4th and 5th in the Tampa series of graded prep races- a series that was incredibly weak this year. Now coming off of a sizable layoff and jumping into much tougher company. Not using.
7. Five Sixteen: He has never run a Beyer above a 78, and finished 4th beaten 11 lengths in his one start against winners (though the horse that beat him, Eye on Jacob, is a solid horse that is running in Friday's Brooklyn). I don't think distance will be a problem with him, but he just isn't good enough to run with these horses. Not using.
8. Guyana Star Dweej: Took eight attempts to break his maiden, then got crushed by Unstoppable U in his one start against winners. Not using.
9. Paynter: Paynter is the only horse outside of I'll Have Another to run a triple digit Beyer (both have ran two of them), and he should be forwardly placed and receive a good trip. The two questions that face him are his seasoning and his class, both of which should help give him playable win odds. I don't think they'll be a big issue for him- he jumped up from a 5.5 furlong maiden win to run in the Santa Anita Derby, a race where he did not have a clean start but ran a respectable 4th behind I'll Have Another. He's the horse that Baffert has said all along was his best Triple Crown hopeful, and his 106 Beyer last time out (albeit against overmatched horses) shows he fits here. Win contender.
10. Optimizer: Finished 11th in the Derby, 6th in the Preakness, yet D. Wayne keeps trotting him out there in these races. Just put him on the turf, where I think he has a good future. The one positive with him is that, pedigree wise, he is the best built for the distance, with his sire English Channel being a quality 12 furlong horse. But I have no reason to expect anything different from his Preakness, where he will pass some tired horses, but not enough to finish in the top four. Not using.
11. I'll Have Another: The clear favorite, and the horse most likely to win the race. I think if he runs the same race that he ran in the Preakness, the only horse that has a chance to beat him is Paynter. I don't think distance is an issue. The issue for him is value. With the public out hoping and betting that I'll Have Another will win the Triple Crown, he will be a significant underlay. He's good, but he's not 3-5 good. Plus he has a jockey in Gutierrez who will have never ridden at Belmont until the Friday card. Several horses have lost the crown due to a premature move on the far turn (think Spectacular Bid, Real Quiet, and Smarty Jones) because the geography of the Belmont track is different. At most tracks, including Santa Anita, Churchill, and Pimlico, the far turn generally marks 3 furlongs left, while at Belmont, at marks 5 furlongs left. It very easy for a jockey to make that mistake, particularly during his first time riding it. It happens to everyone, even the greats. Because of this, while he may be the best horse in the race and the most likely winner, for betting purposes, it is tough to put him on top.
12. My Adonis: He does a good job beating the horses he should beat while losing to horses he should lose to. By my count, there are five horses that I would consider better than him. Therefore, I'm expecting him to finish 6th. Not using.

Belmont selections:
1. Paynter
2. I'll Have Another
3. Dullahan
4. Street Life

 

I just don't like the longshots in this race, they aren't in the same tier as the top 5 horses. If I was told that one of the horses going off at 20-1 or better was going to finish in the superfecta, it'd probably be Atigun. He finished behind Bodemeister in the Arkansas Derby by just over 11 lengths. If he had ran that race in the Preakness, for example, he would have finished 4th. I just think Dullahan and Street Life are superior closers to him. He'll need to improve his form while a couple of the contending horses simultaneously regress.

It isn't a good betting race unless you believe I'll Have Another will falter.

Here are the Belmont PP's, for anyone interested: http://www.drf.com/sites/default/files/HGBELMONT.pdf

The most interesting betting race of the weekend is the Brooklyn Handicap, Race 10 today at Belmont. First of all, for Belmont implications, it is a 1 1/2 race, and Gutierrez has a mount in Boxer des Rues. Don't think he can win, but it will be good experience for him. But I like a couple of long shots in the race with Golden Gulch (12-1 ML) and Arthur's Tale (8-1).