2018 College Football Gambling Thread

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by letan, Aug 9, 2018.

  1. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    not sure if others are having the same problem but i cant open it due to the size online any longer
     
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  2. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Which one? The new one? I fucked around with it and made the entire sheet all the way to the bottom a table and it made it a massive file and fucked it up. Its going to take some time to get that sheet going. Hell I made the CFB sheet the same way but make my life easier but still took like 4 hours to do.
     
  3. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Yea the new one. I just got the original one to open
     
  4. Stone Cold Steve Austin

    Stone Cold Steve Austin Tickler Extraordinaire
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    Alabama Crimson TideAtlanta Braves

    Do you mind posting the expert favorite picks?
     
  5. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Here are the sharp picks according to them

    Coastal Carolina @ Massachusetts
    • Sharp angle: Under (moved from 73.5 to 71.5)
    • Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
    • TV channel: Eleven Sports
    Only three FBS teams allow more points per game than UMass, whose opponents have averaged 44.9 ppg so far this season. Coastal Carolina’s defense hasn’t been much better either, allowing 35.3 ppg, hence the high total.

    But while these defenses are bad, sharp bettors don’t think they’re quite that bad.

    Even though the over has been the more popular bet, drawing 69% of bettors, the total has fallen two points from its opening number thanks to sharp action.

    Five steam moves have been triggered on the under — and none on the over — indicating five instances of market-wide line movement caused by a sportsbook taking a sharp wager.

    Minnesota @ Nebraska
    • Sharp angle: Under (moved from 56 to 54)
    • Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
    • TV channel: BTN
    The total has fallen in this Big Ten matchup despite the majority of bets landing on the over. In fact, 73% of bettors are expecting this game to finish with more than 54 points.

    Sharps aren’t among that 73%, however. They’ve been the cause of this line falling, as evidenced by three steam moves on the under.






    It’s worth noting — if you’re looking to follow the sharps on this one — that the last steam move came at a total of 55.5.

    Memphis @ Missouri

    • Sharp angle: Under (moved from 74 to 73)
    • Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET
    • TV channel: SEC Network
    In a spot nearly identical to the Coastal Carolina-UMass game, Memphis and Missouri are attracting sharps to another under on a high total. The two teams combine to score 78.4 points per game, but wiseguys don’t see that happening on Saturday.

    The over is again the more popular bet, drawing 59% of tickets, but this total has fallen by one point as the under has drawn three steam moves.






    One potential reason for sharps to love the under?

    As is the case in many of Saturday’s games, winds are expected to be blowing between 15 and 20 mph in Columbia, which should make it harder to move the ball while keeping the clock moving as the teams might have to rely on the run game.

    Central Florida @ East Carolina

    • Sharp angle: East Carolina (moved from +24 to +21.5)
    • Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
    • TV channel: ESPN2
    Drawing 81% of bettors, UCF is one of the most popular college football teams of the entire weekend. The Knights briefly opened at -24, but were quickly bet down to -21.

    They’ve since inched up to -21.5, but it seems that sharps are still finding value on the underdog at those numbers.






    East Carolina has been on the receiving end of eight steam moves this week, six of which have come at either +21 or +21.5.

    Fresno State @ New Mexico

    • Sharp angle: New Mexico (moved from +16.5 to +13.5)
    • Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
    • TV channel: ESPNU
    Of all the games on Saturday’s slate, this looks to be the one that has drawn the most one-sided sharp action throughout the week.

    New Mexico has drawn 12 steam moves, causing this line to fall a full field goal from its opening number. Perhaps more impressive is that the line movement comes despite 77% of bets landing on Fresno State.






    New Mexico’s 23% of bets, however, have accounted for 38% of dollars wagered, meaning that bigger bets — more likely to be the ones placed by sharps — are behind the Lobos.
     
  6. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    And here are the expert picks Stone Cold Steve Austin

    PJ Walsh: Illinois-Wisconsin Under 56.5
    Noon ET on FS1

    Both Illinois and Wisconsin run the ball effectively, ranking 22nd and sixth in rushing yards per game, respectively. When two teams that average at least 215 yards per game on the ground match up, the under is 228-174-7 (56.7%) since 2003, according to Bet Labs.

    The current forecast also calls for swirling 21 mph winds, which should limit explosive plays through the passing game. Since 2003, college football games played in winds of at least 20 mph have gone under 64.3% of the time.

    Collin Wilson: Miami Ohio +8 (at Army)
    Noon ET on CBSSN

    If you listened to the latest episode of The Action Network Colleges podcast or read my weekly CW column, or even read our moneyline underdogs piece, you know my love for Miami Ohio this week knows no bounds.

    The RedHawks have the rush defense to contain Army’s triple-option rushing attack. They rank in the top 30 nationally against the rush, allowing 3.29 yards per carry.

    On the other side of the ball, Miami ranks 16thin rushing explosiveness, going for 200 yards in each of its past four games. Quarterback Gus Ragland, who led this team to six straight wins and a near upset of Mississippi State in 2016, has continued to play more efficiently in recent weeks.


    John Ewing: Michigan-Michigan State Under 41
    Noon ET on FOX

    The market expects a low-scoring game between Michigan-Michigan State, as the over/under of 41 points is the lowest on the Saturday slate.

    The Wolverines rank No. 1 in defensive S&P+, while the Spartans are 21st. Not only should this rivalry game be a defensive slugfest, but the weather will impact scoring, as well. The forecast calls for 17 mph winds during the game, which will impede both passing offenses and kicking games. Since 2005, the under is 471-341-12 (58%) when the average wind speed was 13 mph or stronger.

    Casual bettors are ignoring the defensive matchup and the weather as 68% of tickets are on the over. Michigan-Michigan State is one of the most bet games on the slate. Historically, the under has been a profitable play in heavily bet games with low totals.



    Steve Petrella: Temple -3 (vs. Cincinnati)
    Noon ET on ESPNU

    What’s the old adage? When an unbeaten, Top 25 team is an underdog at Temple, you back Temple without thinking twice? Yeah, that’s it.

    Cincinnati is a year ahead of schedule thanks to an excellent defense. That unit is legit. But the offense’s numbers have been propped up by a weak schedule. And despite ranking No. 20 in the AP Poll, the Bearcats are No. 73 in our power ratings. They’re just not this good.

    This is by far the stiffest test Cincy’s offense will face thus far. Temple’s defense ranks 15th in S&P+ and fifth in yards per play. It’s been tested by far better offenses in Buffalo, Maryland and Boston College, so those numbers are not inflated.

    Temple has played much better since dropping its opener to Villanova and dominated inferior opponents the last few weeks. The number is accounting for Associated Press voters overrating Cincinnati, but I think the Owls win a defensive struggle by about 10 points, so take a look at the under, too.

    Danny Donahue: Mississippi State +6 (at LSU)
    7 p.m. ET on ESPN

    After Saturday, LSU has two weeks to rest and prepare for a home game against Alabama that will make or break its season. Not an ideal time to be playing the top scoring defense in the nation that will be fresh off a bye week.

    And even if the Tigers are able to keep their focus and come away with a victory, the low total in this game is going to make a seven-point win hard to come by. I’ll take the points.

    Stuckey: Mississippi State +6 (at LSU)
    7 p.m. ET on ESPN

    I completely agree with Danny. This is not only a great situational spot to back the Bulldogs, but I like some of the things they should be able to do schematically. I think their dominant defensive front can disrupt the LSU offense and they should be able to get their run game going — similar to what Florida did in its win over LSU when the Gators ran for 215 yards.

    This is just a few points too high, which doesn’t surprise me in Death Valley — historically one off the most overvalued home-field advantages in all of college football. I played +7 (-120) earlier this week, but still like it down to +6.

    Ken Barkley: USC +7 (at Utah)
    8 p.m. ET on PACN

    Just a couple too many points, that’s all.

    You might say this is some kind of revenge spot, because Utah blew the game after having USC on the ropes last year in LA. However, that angle is usually overblown and generally irrelevant in my eyes.

    What’s really happening here is Utah is being given a huge bump from its last two games, when a huge bump was not particularly deserved. The Utes’ big win against Stanford was a product of the confluence of Stanford being worn out, not having Bryce Love, and also committing horrific turnovers. Stanford was basically going in to score on its first three drives of that game, and Utah ended up by two touchdowns. Almost an impossible thing to accomplish.

    Combine that misleading score with a thorough domination of Arizona, which was playing with an injured Khalil Tate, and then Rhett Rodriguez, and I’m not sure what kind of credit we should be giving Utah at all. The Utes couldn’t handle Washington at all at home, and now the other most talented team in the conference comes in on an upswing.

    I’ll take the Trojans with what I think is a little line value.

    Quick Grabs
    Jason Sobel: Colorado +17.5 (at Washington)
    Peter Jennings: SMU moneyline +230 (at Tulane)
    Jack Settleman: Maryland +10 (at Iowa)
    Lauren Joffe: Charlotte +17 (at MTSU)
    Sean Newsham: Memphis-Missouri Over 71
     
  7. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    I find it hilarious that Stuckey is getting paid for this. Used to chat with him regularly on boards.
     
  8. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    God damn blizzard in Wisconsin
     
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  9. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Hasn’t stopped them from scoring yet damnit
     
  10. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Just started. Wasn't snowing at all when Wisky scored.
     
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  11. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Live betting the Under
     
  12. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Jfc stop turning the ball over Illinois
     
  13. g8r

    g8r Well-Known Member
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    Florida GatorsBoston Red Sox

    I can help you with this if you want.
     
  14. Tony Perkis

    Tony Perkis Living My Best Life
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    Clemson TigersChicago CubsCharlotte HornetsCarolina Panthers

    So I put big money on UCF tonight and Milton isn’t playing. Fuck me
     
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  15. bstaple12

    bstaple12 Nole World Order
    Atlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsFlorida State Seminoles

    Rip Tony from 5 dimes wow
     
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  16. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Really?!
     
  17. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    Tiger Woods

    I have no clue who that is. Story please?
     
  18. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Tony is/was (depending on if hes alive) the owner of 5dimes. Anytime you would have a major issue or argument and go on the chat, they would give it to Tony. He was a notorious douche bag asshole. Plenty of stories if you google 5dimes Tony.

    I always felt bad because he probably tons of people trying to get the best of the book and try and cheat. So it annoyed a lot of people that if you had a legitimate argument, he just wouldn't listen.

    I had only one run in with him, when he banned me from Live Betting and limited me to $5 on all bets. No convincing him to change his decision.

    I would not want to have any money on 5dimes right now now thats he gone. Who knows what will happen there
     
  19. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    Tiger Woods

    I have money on 5dimes so this has my attention
     
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  20. bstaple12

    bstaple12 Nole World Order
    Atlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsFlorida State Seminoles

    Yeah was kidnapped and now found dead. If its me, I'm withdrawing
     
  21. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    I would try and withdraw it. But thousands of others will be trying to do the same. So it probably will take a while
     
  22. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    Tiger Woods

    I only have ~$100 on there (leftover from last year) but definitely want what's mine
     
  23. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    If it were me, I would go crazy with that 100 and see what you can turn it into on some crazy shit. If you lose, then fuck it.
     
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  24. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    Tiger Woods

    This is my thought process
     
  25. The Hebrew Husker

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    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    Is there a tab on their site for this list?
     
  26. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
    Boston Red SoxBoston CelticsNew York RangersSeton Hall Pirates

    Hey for those who use Action Network app, you can add me, username the same as here.
     
  27. The Hebrew Husker

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    You guys with sports action, is there an article explaining the new edge feature?
     
  28. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    What feature? I thought edge was just what they called the subscription
     
  29. The Hebrew Husker

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    They do. But recently on the mobile app they have the thing that shows like an “edge” based on sharp money, projections, etc. so I was just wondering exactly how they calculate the sharp money % for example.

    It says Gameday Edge. And shows projections, experts, sharp money
     
  30. Detlef Schrempf

    Detlef Schrempf Well-Known Member
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    Got Georgia at -6.5 when the line first opened, pretty happy about that.
     
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  31. TheGodfather

    TheGodfather Half man, half amazing
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  32. The Hebrew Husker

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  33. wolfpck

    wolfpck haters gonna hate
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    North Carolina State Wolfpack

    5-2 last week. Here is what I'm rolling with this week.

    Arkansas +1.5 vs Vandy

    Louisville -2.5 vs Wake

    Duke -3 @ Pitt

    UGA -6.5 vs Florida

    Missouri -7 vs Kentucky

    Stanford -3 vs Washington State

    OK State +3.5 vs Texas

    Miss State -1 vs Texas A&M
     
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  34. g8r

    g8r Well-Known Member
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    Florida GatorsBoston Red Sox

    Wendel Clark have you been able to update the spreadsheet? Been leaning on it for my pickem.
     
  35. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
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    Clemson TigersCarolina Panthers

  36. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Getting it done now
     
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  37. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    Tiger Woods

  38. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Also trying to make a new file to make that file that is too big smaller.
     
  39. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Got the sheet up to date. Today is all set. Tomorrows games are in by the Plays aren't in for tomorrow yet.

    Had a 3 system play last night with the GT/VT Over and got one tonight as well.

    Hopefully here in the very near future, the other sheet will be up to date and all the Combo of Plays will be updated with records and such.

    My manager that runs the business for me and a couple other people have been gone this week. I actually had to put some leg work in
     
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  40. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    Tiger Woods

    Where can I find a link to the sheet?
     
  41. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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  42. aspenbuff

    aspenbuff Well-Known Member
    Colorado BuffaloesSan Francisco GiantsSacramento KingsOakland RaidersSan Jose SharksUSA Rugby

    I pulled 4k out of 5 Dimes this week and they paid in about 72 hours. It's a big operation and things are fine for now so I still have money there but decided to reduce my exposure since they limited me to 20% of normal max anyway. I'd be shocked if they had trouble paying anyone out during football season. They are too profitable of a book and too big of a name in the industry to go downhill that quickly.

    Whether or not to keep money there comes down to what you're using them for. If someone is a 1 book bettor that only plays full game spreads and totals, then I wouldn't keep money there and would move to a Lowvig.ag or Nitrogen type of book. But if someone wants to play props or have accounts at a number of books to line shop, then I'd still keep money there.
     
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  43. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    3 system play hits tonight.

    BC Miami Under
     
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  44. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    Tiger Woods

    :rain:
     
  45. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Can’t believe that under hit. I was really sweating it early.
     
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  46. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    I was counting it as a loss in the 1st quarter. Great 2nd half
     
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  47. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Same. I was at rough n rowdy so couldn’t watch but was getting updates through the action network app. Thought maybe I had bad reception bc scoring updates just stopped.
     
  48. JCort

    JCort oiling and lotioning, lotioning and oiling
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    Nebraska CornhuskersLiverpoolBig 8 Conference

    Who we liking today boys? Need a lock for a coop parlay with some bros.
     
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  49. Wilfred

    Wilfred Well-Known Member
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    Missouri TigersSt. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Blues

    So far I’m liking the Umass/UConn under
     
  50. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
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    Clemson TigersCarolina Panthers