***2018 MLB Thread: Cano way either team will Edwin this trade***

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by teel, Mar 29, 2018.

  1. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
    Donor

    Giving Corbin the extra year or two is rough, but I like that Washington is still going for it while Scherer is still an ace. That rotation was garbage last year.
     
  2. Yanks711

    Yanks711 TMB's Hoosier
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    Indiana HoosiersNew York YankeesIndiana PacersCincinnati BengalsMiami Dolphins

    wanted Corbin pretty bad but yeesh at 6 years at the AAV. Pivot to Happ for a couple years and go all in on Machado and/or Harper
     
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  3. bwi2

    bwi2 Not affiliated with BWI
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    ITT: Yankees (and some Phillies) fans forgetting the acquisition cost of starting pitching on the open market. Corbin has been a healthy starter for 4.5 seasons and has exceeded $23.3 AAV in value in 3.5 of them.
     
  4. Weedlord420

    Weedlord420 Jabooty Football
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    Whatever, the price is high but we were throwing tanner roark out there as our #2 when stras hit his yearly dl stint.
     
  5. Jack Parkman

    Jack Parkman Well-Known Member
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    Mets deal wouldn’t upset me, but if that braves offer is real I’d prefer that I think

     
  6. IanC

    IanC I'm sorry, the card says Moops
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    Lol at Yankees acting like an extra year that equates to a rounding error of their annual revenue is actually cost prohibitive
     
  7. poor paul

    poor paul Well-Known Member
    Houston Rockets

    It’s the whole paying for ages 30-35 part that gives people pause, I think, and the risk of pitcher health.

    I think it’s a pretty fair deal overall (not sure I’d have gone to 6 years) but it’s still $23.3/year in the decline phase.
     
    #13507 poor paul, Dec 4, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2018
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  8. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    He's been worth $23m once year in his career but definitely spin this to make yourself feel better about it.
     
  9. poor paul

    poor paul Well-Known Member
    Houston Rockets



    Basically this.
     
    MG2 likes this.
  10. bwi2

    bwi2 Not affiliated with BWI
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    He was worth $25.7 million in 2013, $24.2 million in 2016, and $12.4 million in 16 starts in 2015. A six win pitcher wouldn’t make anything in the neighborhood of 23 million, and they’re clearly not paying him as if he is going to be one.
     
  11. IanC

    IanC I'm sorry, the card says Moops
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    ZiPS Projections – Patrick Corbin
    Year W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ WAR
    2019 12 8 3.63 32 31 181.0 171 73 21 50 195 117 3.4
    2020 11 7 3.63 31 29 173.7 163 70 20 47 185 117 3.3
    2021 10 7 3.68 30 28 168.7 159 69 20 45 178 115 3.1
    2022 9 7 3.71 27 26 153.0 145 63 18 41 161 115 2.8
    2023 9 6 3.77 25 24 143.3 137 60 17 39 152 113 2.5
    2024 8 6 3.82 24 23 134.3 129 57 17 38 143 111 2.3
     
  12. Tobias

    Tobias doubtful...not with brexit
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    yeah because you definitely aren’t trying to spin this to make yourself feel better about the yankees not getting him :meh:
     
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  13. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    Whatever makes you feel better.
     
  14. Tobias

    Tobias doubtful...not with brexit
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    yankees don’t sign a top target so dbl makes sure everyone is aware of how bad the signing was for the team that did. great stuff as always
     
  15. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
    Donor

    This is the topic on which MLB teams have done the most PR work Jared Diamond was tweeting about yesterday, IMO. Somewhere along the way, big market teams convinced their fan bases that things like "financial flexibility" and luxury tax are big deals. It's trickling down to teams like Seattle, which is getting horrible value for their best players while calling it "rebuilding" when all it really involves is them shedding payroll it could probably afford.

    Yes, these FA deals are often stupid and blow up in teams' faces. There are a lot of teams that are legit contenders who aren't spending to their payroll capacities nowadays, though, and they've done such good PR in how they've done it that their fans are behind it.
     
  16. electronic

    electronic Fan of the Seahawks and no other teams of note
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    Georgia Bulldogs

    The M’s were/are in a pretty bad situation. If I recall correctly, even after shedding the payroll they have so far, they’re still on the hook for like $110 million in 2019 commitments currently. Just a really poorly constructed team.
     
  17. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
    Donor

    Part of that is because they aren't actually saving much money next year because they took back guys like Santana, Bruce and Swarzak.

    Seattle was messed up and wasn't going to win. It makes sense for them to do some kind of fire sale. But I'm not really sure how Seattle is that much more likely to compete in 2021 today than it was a month ago. The only difference is that 2021 team is going to cost a lot less now.
     
  18. theregionsitter

    theregionsitter Well-Known Member
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    I was hoping for FA 2018 deals but this isn’t shaping up that way, this year looks expensive to acquire players

    White Sox gonna end up with a bag of peanuts again :(
     
  19. Wallcoq

    Wallcoq Miles of D.
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    There’s a lot on the market still.
     
  20. electronic

    electronic Fan of the Seahawks and no other teams of note
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    Georgia Bulldogs

    The hope is that the payroll flexibility will allow them to bring on more talent. I’m dubious of the strategy, but I’m not super upset by the sell off because this team was going nowhere anyway. Winning 75 games instead of 83 games doesn’t make any real difference. I don’t care if some billionaire saves a few dollars, so I’m not operating under that delusion; just that I don’t think the M’s were making the playoffs before 2021 prior to the sell off.
     
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  21. Han Solo

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    This is the reality. They've improved the farm system, but it's only about league average now. The only thing they've really done is reduce payroll in 2020 and beyond. It remains to be seen if they do anything with it, or if they continue to "rebuild"
     
    electronic likes this.
  22. electronic

    electronic Fan of the Seahawks and no other teams of note
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    Georgia Bulldogs

    I also wonder how much of Cano’s health and production was aided by PEDs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him totally wilt in the next couple years.
     
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  23. It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens

    It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens Sporting a Chubby
    Donor

    Cano deal is w.e. The Segura deal seems indefensible.
     
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  24. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
    Donor

    They've improved the farm system by taking less value for some of their better players in order to dump money. They basically traded Paxton for Sheffield rather than keeping Paxton long term. They replaced Segura with Crawford. They replaced Diaz with Dunn and Cano with Kelenic 3+ years from now. The farm system will look better at the start of the season, but realistically the organization is worse than it was before. The only thing that's different is that the big league roster is cheaper. There's value in that, but the only realistic chance for the rebuild to work is to either suck for a long time, or sign a bunch of FAs as soon as the money comes off the books post-2020. Realistically speaking, I'm not that sure what the Mariners have accomplished that makes it more likely to compete moving forward.
     
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  25. electronic

    electronic Fan of the Seahawks and no other teams of note
    Donor
    Georgia Bulldogs

    I think Segura was not popular in the clubhouse. I read a take on the Mariners SB nation site that argued that the M’s needed something like $40 million in surplus value from Crawford to make the trade favor the M’s.

    I can’t get particularly upset about the Segura deal because:
    - he wasn’t going to be on the next M’s playoff team regardless
    - there is almost no market for SS this offseason
    - Crawford may be a “post hype sleeper”
    - I’m dead inside from being a Mariners fan
     
  26. electronic

    electronic Fan of the Seahawks and no other teams of note
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    Georgia Bulldogs

    Being expensive and bad is how the M’s have operated since 2002. At least this is different.
     
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  27. It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens

    It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens Sporting a Chubby
    Donor

    This is the thing.. You guys took back a bigger contract than you cleared. Why not wait until the Allstar break or next summer and get good value?
     
  28. It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens

    It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens Sporting a Chubby
    Donor

    Full disclosure.. I'm mad because the Phillies got a really good ss and dumped an awful contract for nothing. Well played Phillies.
     
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  29. electronic

    electronic Fan of the Seahawks and no other teams of note
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    Georgia Bulldogs

    Santana is projected to be a 2.5 win player next year, and I'm not confident that the M's could've gotten anything better by waiting.

    My whole position on this offseason is basically - welp, if you're going to clear this much money long term and sink the near term, you better fucking nail it long term. Then again, the M's front office is embroiled in a sexual harassment/racism scandal, so fuck them either way.
     
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  30. Han Solo

    Donor
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    I feel like the M’s future success will be based on if their record is bad enough the next few years to get enough top 5 picks that even they can’t screw them all up. Unfortunately they’ll probably be in the 6-10 range and will inevitably whiff on them all anyways.

    Then they’ll have 1 year of some success and trade all their good young prospects to fall just short of the WC2 spot.
     
    electronic likes this.
  31. Muddy Badger

    Muddy Badger Well-Known Member
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    Phillies fans also just watched Halladay and Lee breakdown overnight at age 35 so the back end of that deal is scary. Like I said before Phils are loaded with young arms, if they are going to spend 20 million plus it should be for bats. Also need to save up for the billion dollar contract for when Mike comes home.
     
  32. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    I wish the Yankees would have a $400m payroll yearly. They aren't though. Knowing that, I'd prefer to not spend $23m a year on a guy like Corbin. I don't trust that you're getting the 2018 Corbin for the next 3-4 years, which you'll need to make eating the back end of that deal worth it.
     
  33. teel

    teel teelsy
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    Brodie is suh dude’ing everyone

     
  34. poor paul

    poor paul Well-Known Member
    Houston Rockets

    If they got 2018 Corbin for 3-4 years this is the best contract that will be written this year, and one of the better ones in recent memory.

    It’s a reasonable contract that is probably a little too long, just like many big free agent contracts in this era.
     
    #13535 poor paul, Dec 4, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2018
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  35. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    Yea I worded that poorly. I just dont think we'll see 2018 Corbin more than a year or two, if at all. I'm not a fan of putting 1/8th of your payroll into a guy that's had one elite year. I know you can say a win is worth X so he's worth Y but those type numbers rarely work out in the long run.
     
  36. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
    Donor

    I get that, and I'm not saying the Yankees are necessarily wrong not to do it. It's just interesting to me that fans (not you specifically, but in general) just kind of seem to take the org at its word about finances now when that kind of goes against the understanding we all have about how much money is in the game currently.

    In terms of the Yankees specifically as it pertains to Corbin, the cost of not meeting Corbin's price is you're not signing a legit #2ish starter and instead probably jumping back into the JA Happ-level pool. For a team with WS aspirations the next few years, the difference between those two guys going into a playoff series in a crowded American League feels pretty significant to me. There were reports from the start of last year that Corbin was a significant target for them. Again, I get why they did it, but it still feels like a somewhat significant whiff to me unless they can pull off another trade for a top 3 starter.
     
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  37. Rammer Jammer

    Rammer Jammer Fan Of: Bama, Braves, Packers, MSU Baseball
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  38. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    What else can a fan do other than accept the payroll is going to be at the cap? Stand outside the team office and protest that they wont go higher? I mean I'd love for them to go way over but I really dont have any recourse other than to accept it. I know they can go higher but it appears they aren't willing to so I just have to live with that.

    If the Yankees sign nobody this offseason, I'll be upset. I still think they'll land one of Machado or Harper. I'd rather invest dollars in them than Corbin.
     
  39. teel

    teel teelsy
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    The Corp The Corp The Corp

     
  40. poor paul

    poor paul Well-Known Member
    Houston Rockets

  41. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
    Donor

    I don't think banning the shift accomplishes what some think it would, but I'm open to the idea because I think there's a good argument to be made for hard hit balls being rewarded, and the shift takes more of those away than a normal defense. I'll never buy the premise that "no shift = less strikeouts" until I see it.
     
  42. Jack Parkman

    Jack Parkman Well-Known Member
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    How should i feel about this package as a marlins fan

     
  43. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
    Donor

    I don't really understand that one from Miami's perspective. Or the Mets' perspective, really.
     
  44. poor paul

    poor paul Well-Known Member
    Houston Rockets

    there's also this for those of us who are interested in how players have incentives to play a certain way.

     
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  45. MG2

    MG2 No judgement in brainstorming
    Donor

    After looking over some numbers and whatnot, I take back my view of that from Miami's standpoint. It's a weird deal for them, but could make a lot of sense depending on what the final deal looked like.

    From the Mets standpoint, I could see dealing one of those guys + prospects for Realmuto. Dealing two of them would make no sense to me, given the holes the Mets already have. Just sign Grandal in that scenario and keep those guys.
     
  46. electronic

    electronic Fan of the Seahawks and no other teams of note
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    Georgia Bulldogs

    Weird - the Mets team doctor performed an arthroscopic knee surgery on Cano’s right knee after the season, while Cano was still a Mariner.

    Story on the Athletic.
     
  47. Jack Parkman

    Jack Parkman Well-Known Member
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  48. It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens

    It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens Sporting a Chubby
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    well obviously one of the Mets best players and their two best prospects would be a good deal for the Marlins.
     
  49. Jack Parkman

    Jack Parkman Well-Known Member
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