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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by HotMic, Jan 3, 2020.
go to sleep
Oklahoma was pretty average this last year friend
They're pretty legitimately a 4-8 team every year and amazingly consistent, just don't have the talent to compete with the best.
No MAC titles
That’s the big 12 effect. I Think they are consistently overrated. But you are right, Oklahoma is a very consistent and good program. I just think that people see them as more than they really are,
Switch Michigan and Oklahoma’s schedule from last year and Oklahoma looks like shit while Michigan goes undefeated.
The '17 OU team was very good and could have very easily been playing for the national championship
Penn State makes CFP barely over ND. I don’t understand hype for teams with complete mysteries for their skill positions.
Hard to see less than 11-1 for Penn State, start embracing B1G getting two in the playoffs because this is the year it most likely happens
I have no idea what to expect from us this season. Probably have a better idea once we fill the open spot on the staff.
We have no one we know can catch the ball except Freiermuth.
The schedule is pretty favorable. Week 2 at VT, probably at night, makes me nervous with how much they are returning.
Journey Brown is good, you'll have good pass rushers and Micah.
Think we're way better but scared of the fuckery of a night white out game.
It’s gonna be Big Nude.
They overachieved this past season but the 17 and 18 teams compete with anyone beside the top couple teams, even with an absent defense. 17 was a double overtime away from the title game.
2. Ohio State
I don’t think you’ll be way better in 2020. Will be better, no doubt, but in comparison to 2019 we will be closer talent wise.
As Jimmy the Saint said, developing a WR or 2 is what we need. We have Jahan Dotson who will be our number 1, and he’s smooth and pretty reliable but not a game breaker. We’ll need our new OC to take us up a couple notches as well.
Ohio State 2020 could be a huge matchup problem for Penn State 2020 based upon the way things look on paper in January nine months before we start the year.
We are going to have a better OL, possibly best we have had in 7-10 years. QB should be better, assuming Fields continues to progress. WRs and TEs will be better. The TEs return, as do our top two WRs over our last six games and we’re bringing the best WR class we have had.
We’re going to be a pass heavy team in 2020. I’m not sure that’s a Penn State defensive strength.
On D, we lose three on the DL, but we actually get two starting DEs back. DE Smith started 2019, but that’s because we lost team captain DE Cooper to injury. Cooper recovered and started Michigan, but took advantage of the new four game rule to redshirt and come back for 2020. Our DTs and other DEs all played a lot in 2019.
We return four senior linebackers, with two starters. We’re going to be very solid in the front seven against the run.
We’re gutted in the secondary, but Penn State may not be able to exploit that.
You’ve been a matchup nightmare and way more talented than psu for the last 5 years and it hasn’t stopped us from competing and having competitive games. I expect that to continue.
You get us at home, which has always been tough for us. We also have to show some offensive balance by running the ball without Dobbins.
How many FBS teams would NDSU beat?
North Dakota State wrapped its eighth FCS national championship in nine years when it beat James Madison 28-20 on Saturday in Frisco.
If there were ever a year when this was not supposed to happen, this was the one! NDSU had just lost a four-year starting QB (Easton Stick), a head coach (Chris Klieman, off to K-State), and a host of other starters on all sides of the ball. The Bison had already replaced head coaches and QBs over the course of their dynasty run, but those losses and the rise of JMU as something sort of close to a contemporary made it seem like 2019 might not be NDSU’s year. The Bison were not the odds-on favorites this year, according to SP+, which projects how teams would fare against each other on neutral fields. At most sports books, they were even slight dogs in the title game.
And yet, here we are. The Bison haven’t lost since 2016. They’ll go into 2020 with a redshirt sophomore QB, Trey Lance, who appears to be the best they’ve had yet. (You threw as many interceptions as Lance did this season. Congrats to you both.)
The Bison are perfectly happy being exactly where they are, but an annual thought exercise is taking a stab at how they would do against FBS competition. They’re 9-3 against FBS teams all-time, and they’ve won six in a row going back to 2010. The last victim was Iowa in 2016, and then teams stopped playing them … for a while. Oregon is opening this particular can of worms again in 2020, when it hosts NDSU in Week 1.
So, a question: How would NDSU have done against each of 2019’s FBS teams, if they played on a neutral field?
The Bison finished 33rd in all of Division I in the Sagarin ratings, the most prominent computerized attempt to put just about all of FBS and FCS on one playing field.
Here is a quick spoiler: Oregon, Arizona, and Colorado are all on NDSU’s schedule by 2024. Right now, there’s no reason to think the latter two will beat the Bison.
Let’s categorize everyone from 2019, though. These teams are loosely categorized by SP+, but I’ve made some adjustments as I’ve gone down the list.
Would beat NDSU barring a really big upset
These are the top eight in SP+, and they were reliably solid all year, with just a few exceptions. More importantly, they’re all Blue-Chip Ratio teams, and they should have enough four- and five-star athletes to be able to beat any 63-scholarship team of three-stars and below without trouble.
Shouldn’t have much trouble, but less of a sure thing
These teams were all pretty good, though A&M’s record didn’t reflect that because of a brutal schedule. All of them are considerably more talented than any FCS team, even the Bison, but all also had moments that would make you think an NDSU win was at least a possibility. Minnesota-NDSU would be an amazing regional rivalry game, and if we lived in a better world, the Bison and Gophers would play each other every year.
BIG MANBALL teams that might get into some trouble
These teams are all FBS versions of the Bison, which should make them better versions of the Bison. But NDSU may well have a better QB than all three of them, and Utah and Wisconsin in particular showed major vulnerabilities at different points. Iowa might also fall into this trap, but they’re probably a slightly safer bet, given how they blew USC off the field in the Holiday Bowl.
Speaking of which:
These are all Blue-Chip Ratio squads. But if Miami can lose 14-0 to Louisiana Tech in Shreveport, it can absolutely lose anywhere in the world to NDSU. The other teams here, except Auburn, were bad in their own ways. Auburn could destroy NDSU but could also lose by 21. Either would be a classically Auburn outcome. USC should be thankful it didn’t play NDSU this decade, because there’s no way it would’ve gone well.
Probably looking at a competitive game
Here are a bunch of pretty good Power 5, with a few impressive Group of 5s mixed in. There’s some triple-option flavor here on the G5 side, which would be a wrinkle.
NDSU is winning either way
Should 2019 NDSU beat both of these teams? Yes. If NDSU didn’t win, would that in and of itself be proof of NDSU’s greatness, via the coaches on the other team? Yes.
Close-ish games that NDSU would probably win
Any of these teams might beat NDSU. The Bison are, after all, a top-three team, which might mean they have trouble against Pitt. But NDSU certainly seems better than anyone in this section, and it’d take a lot for any of them to beat the Bison.
Fully expecting NDSU to win
San Diego State
Hawaii, because this game’s not in Hawaii
These are mostly bad Power 5 teams and Group of 5 teams that showed flashes but didn’t do anything much over the long run. If Rondale Moore’s healthy for Purdue, it’s possible the Boilers blow the Bison away, but I wouldn’t necessarily expect that. NDSU flattening Hugh Freeze’s Liberty would be a uniquely satisfying CFB experience. That Louisiana Tech is in this section speaks further to Miami’s problems.
NDSU would win, and it would probably be ugly
San Jose State
New Mexico State
UMass beat Akron, but still has a case as maybe the worst FBS team ever. This is not easy to do. Anyway, NDSU by 55 if they ever see each other.
Also, since we're talking dynasties today, and since (later tonight) we might see one fully establish itself or even a new one begin, here's a look at seven ways college football's historical dynasties have ended.
Bama too high
They lose a lot, but they’re going to be top 5 by default until someone beats them.
You probably have to go back to 2008 or 2009 to find Alabama outside the top 5 in a preseason poll.
What do you mean until someone beats them?
They will be presumed top five until they get beat. I think they get the benefit of doubt from voters, especially in the preseason.
Maybe so, but with what we return I think we’re solidly top 5. I’m not real sure who you’d argue for otherwise. Maybe Penn State?
I think he was just being silly
Auburn seems like a natural choice but I don't know much about what they lost
All 4 of those will be back.
We had the #6 D in the country and return 9 starters. The 2 graduating starters are being replaced by 5* LB true freshmen. We expect to be better next year on that side of the ball.
Offense is still TBD as we await our new OC.
there's a not unreasonable chance Oregon starts the season in the top 10 and goes 0-2 in its first two games.
2020 non conference games to watch
MICHIGAN at WASHINGTON
When: Saturday, Sept. 5
USC vs. ALABAMA (in Arlington, Texas)
When: Saturday, Sept. 5
TEXAS at LSU
When: Saturday, Sept. 12
OHIO STATE at OREGON
When: Saturday, Sept. 12
NORTH CAROLINA vs. AUBURN (in Atlanta, Ga.)
When: Saturday, Sept. 12
WISCONSIN vs. NOTRE DAME (in Green Bay, Wisc.)
When: Saturday, Oct. 3
CLEMSON at NOTRE DAME
When: Saturday, Nov. 7
MIAMI-FLA. at MICHIGAN STATE
When: Saturday, Sept. 26
Tennessee at Oklahoma 9/12
Colorado at aTm 9/19
Ole Miss vs Baylor 9/5 (Houston, TX)
Penn St at Virginia Tech 9/12
Feel free to add more. That second weekend won't be one of the worst matchup weekends like years past.
That should put Ohio State at Oregon as a top 10 matchup. We’ll be 2 and you should be 6-7.
We aren’t losing as much as you might think; we should bring back 14 starters from the Citrus Bowl, 15 if Najee stays as the rumors indicate, plus getting two injured senior ILBs back,including a Butkus finalist, as well as an all-SEC DE
That Miami-Michigan State game should be riveting.
Also very smart move by Oregon scheduling NDSU while they are looking ahead to Ohio State. That is almost a guaranteed loss the first week.
Alabama has recruited at an elite level. Like I said, Alabama will be top 5.
2019 was not an Alabama defense though, and you are losing very high end talent.
In no way am I predicting it, but just imagine the fuckery that would ensue if a Pac-12 team actually won one of these early Pac 12 - SEC/Big Ten matchups
Sucks to be #Baylor Bears
devine is #trusttheclimb yalls slogan for 2020 or mocking Norvell's CLIMB motto
No we used it as soon as Neal got here
thats what i thought, but dumbass fsu twitter thinks yall are mocking norvell because they are idiots.
I would bet on Washington to beat Michigan if that game was tomorrow. Michigan is trash on the road.
UW losing 9/11 on offense (returning only their guards), how much is Michigan returning?
UDub also made unequivocally the worst OC hire of the offseason. Michigan should roll them.
new QB, 4/5 new OL, thin on DL
Regardless, will bet against Michigan in a big game on the road every time
Forever and always
Fuck Walt Bell
Michigan will blow the doors off of them but we're going to have to deal with this milquetoast pity party until they beat us or win the Big Ten
hello v v randy for the season to start and if marcus doesn’t get his sweet cheeks to Eugene he’s gonna make me sad
3. Ohio State