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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by NilesIrish, Mar 4, 2019.
We have discussed before, by consolidate I mean candidates dropping out. Harris, Booker, and O’Rourke are all polling above debate thresholds, but have no chance at winning.
We need to see if each of them stay in this race through the March primaries for their home states. Those three have between 10-20% of the share in a significant number of states between them.
It’s not very clear who gets those votes if they drop.
Wisconsin (9/29-10/3) IBD: Biden 28, Warren 22, Sanders 17
SC (9/29-10/2) Fox News Qualifying Poll: Biden 41 Warren 12 Sanders 10, Harris 4, Steyer 4, Booker 3
you will like this one
It’s an interesting project to capture four years of data. Erie swung in 2016, but it typically goes blue by double digits.
In 2016, Trump won more votes in Erie than any R since Nixon in 1972. Trump won it by 2000 votes, roughly 60,000-58,000.
gonna just continue to throw horse race stuff in here. Dems grabbing the other Senate and the run Gallego for Governor in the 2022 race. State may be fully Blue by then.
More votes means a whole lot less than % of total votes or % of registered voters since populations change drastically over 47 years.
Not sure what point you are trying to make, but Erie County’s population has been stagnant since 1970 (really since 1960). In 1970, it was 264,000 and it’s estimated at 272,000 today based upon the 2010 census. It hit a high of 281,000 in 2000.
It is dumb when people say things like "Beto got more votes in Texas than any other democrat in history!"
Not good for ole Joe
There are 12 candidates qualified for the debate on 10/15.
With the Winthrop and Fox polls that dropped in the last week, there are now 7 for November. Both Booker and Steyer qualified this week.
November has Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg, Booker, and Steyer.
Yang needs one more qualifying poll to make November.
Beto and Klobuchar meet donor requirements, but each still need three qualifying polls.
Can we just give it to Liz and be done already ffs
What % do they have to reach to qualify for the November debate?
Liz is too far left. Same for bernie. Joe has misplaced his marbles and the rest are a joke. There is only one person who can thread the needle for 2020
3% in four qualifying polls or 5% in two, with a list of about a dozen organizations which are “qualifying” polls.
No, not until she wins Ohio.
Good gosh, DNC. If it's October and you're polling at 3%, you're not really in the race.
I'm waaaay behind, obvi, but this was absolutely pathetic on your part
I hope September 30th was better for you. Otherwise, not looking so good from September 29th's returns
The hill is the worst
all within the MoE (continues the trend of polling people predicting based on history that the Dem vs Trump margin is going to be roughly the same regardless of who wins the primary)
They also have her 8+ above water against Trump, which is even more significant given Biden’s reliance upon electability.
Many posters are pm'ing me and saying, sir, you have the best predictions
I doubt that is what he means but it might be the eventual outcome
Why would he attack Warren?
Nate just wants that to be the case so he can be validated.
he never attacked her over anything not related to policy so not the best tell there nate
i'm good with it thanks
The Crooked One is pretty good. Poster In Chief did it again.
It is fascinating how many people are struggling with this painfully simple concept because Biden is doing sort of ok in meaningless polling five months before iowa
It's why I don't really understand the "Bernie may attack Warren" angle. Historically attacking another candidate doesn't help the person doing the attacking but can hurt the person attacked, which would seem to play into Biden's hands. It's a really stupid take.
"Momentum is good so I don't need to throw a hail mary."
We are getting a significant number of state-based polls over the last month. Warren is gaining everywhere, but she needs either to start running higher margins in places like California or cut into Biden’s margins down South.
Her single digit leads in California aren’t enough to offset Biden’s double digits in FL, TX, NC.
I’ll be interested to see if she starts pivoting toward those states.
Fuuuuck yes. So happy to hear this. Of course the comments on that tweet are almost nothing but rose emojis talking about how you can't trust Warren.
She will swing up in Texas, but right now it’s trouble for her. A minority of recent polls have her below 15% threshold there.
15% is very unlikely, but it’s catastrophic for her in Texas if it does happen.
Castro and Beto won't be on the ballot by the time that primary rolls around
The field will be much more condensed by then, I dont think 15% is much of a concern.
Like I said, it’s unlikely, unless we see Beto do something like Kasich/Ohio 2016 and/or Sanders start to recover his polling slide.
Oh, I'm sure you are. Bet Bernie's not though.