2020 Democratic Candidate Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by NilesIrish, Mar 4, 2019.

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Who do you support

  1. Bernie Sanders

    19.5%
  2. Elizabeth Warren

    71.4%
  3. Kamala Harris

    3.0%
  4. Pete Buttigieg

    30.1%
  5. Corey Booker

    0.8%
  6. Beto O'Rourke

    0.8%
  7. Julian Casto

    0.8%
  8. Andrew Yang.

    8.3%
  9. Joe Biden

    5.3%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. NilesIrish

    NilesIrish Not a master fisher but I know bait when I see it
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    Harris fading a bit is interesting, Don't know where she was before in NH, she seemed like a clear #4
     
  2. RSK

    RSK Well-Known Member
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    No evidence :laugh:

    WP ran 15 negative stories about Bernie in a 16 hour period back in 2016

    [​IMG]

    They ran 4 negative ones in the 24 hours after he announced his campaign this year. You should know you linked all of them.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    Early polling isn’t as predictive as later, for obvious reasons, but it is predictive. In the last six times that a VP sought his party’s nomination since 1968, the VP won it five times.

    In each of those five races, polling ran between 24 Humphrey) and 37 (GW), with the exception of Gore who ran above 50 most of these months.

    That 24-37 spot is right where Biden has hovered.

    Dan Quayle is the outlier, but he didn’t run again until 8 years after he left office and ran against the son of his president ticket. Quayle also never got above double digits.

    With that said, Clinto was double digits above Obama for most of 2007, then cratered and fell right after Thanksgiving. No one in this field can be compared to Obama just yet.
     
  4. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    Obama was just another candidate, until he wasn’t. His rise was just as unique and unprecedented as whoever wins the nomination
     
  5. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hot dog
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    Glad we're getting opinions on Bernie from this guy...
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    Harris had a brief period in February 2019 when she polled at 12-14 in three straight polls.

    She fell back to single digits in NH for the next 5 polls until the first debate, then jumped with her Biden attack.

    She hit 18, 9, and 12 in three early July polls for NH. Her last two are 8 and 7, which is where she was pre-debates.

    Gabbard, Steyer, and Yang all have moved up 3-4 points each in the last month.

    50% of the vote is still polling to candidates not named Biden, Sanders, or Warren.
     
    NilesIrish likes this.
  7. Bo Pelinis

    Bo Pelinis WE GO HARD ON EARTH
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    Will be interesting to see who absorbs those votes when people start dropping out.
     
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  8. NCHusker88

    NCHusker88 We named our yam Pam. It rhymed.
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    A final 2 of Bernie-Warren is a fucking dream
     
  9. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    Not surprising, but I couldn’t disagree more.

    He gave the 2004 key note at the convention. As we rolled in to 2008, it was becoming very clear that he was going to crush the African American vote unlike anyone we had seen.
     
  10. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    We haven’t had a primary contest this muddled for Democrats in a long time, 1988 or 1992. The nomination was much different back then because the South mattered a lot more to the party than now.

    No idea how this plays out.
     
  11. Tobias

    Tobias dan “the man qb1” jones fan account
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  12. Drunkle Tom

    Drunkle Tom Well-Known Member
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    Has the DNC said they'd split the stage for these? In the last debate it was top 20 period and if there were more that qualified they would drop candidates with the lowest polling/lowest donor numbers from the debates.
     
  13. Pile Driving Miss Daisy

    Pile Driving Miss Daisy It angries up the blood
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    Said it before, give them the fusion earrings and let them skullfuck all old white boomers into the Dead Zone.
     
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  14. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    Who has the best shot at beating Trump? Not who would be the best POTUS, but who has the best chance of beating Trump?
     
  15. Tobias

    Tobias dan “the man qb1” jones fan account
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    bernie or warren
     
  16. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    its Bernie

    I know people don't want to hear it, but if you want the midwest white play that Biden brings without the seemingly early stage dementia it's Bernie
     
  17. AlternativeFactsRule

    AlternativeFactsRule Mmm ... Coconuts
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    There isn’t an objective answer to this question
     
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  18. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    despite my above take this is also true
     
  19. NilesIrish

    NilesIrish Not a master fisher but I know bait when I see it
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    I honestly believe any of the current top 5 would crush him. Unless weird divisions happen and we get another I’m voting Indy vote.
     
  20. AlternativeFactsRule

    AlternativeFactsRule Mmm ... Coconuts
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    Trump himself may be the best anti-Trump campaigner right now.
     
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  21. Rothko

    Rothko YYUUUU
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    It’s not what we want but...Biden/BobCasey. Why? Progressives are gonna show up no matter what and a ticket like that will calm uniformed swing voters who might otherwise get cold feet about the uncertainty of voting for a socialist.
     
  22. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    that'd never be the ticket

    but I also mostly thought this until Bidens shit down his leg for the last month, Trump will easily be able to crater his approval to Hillary-tier levels

    Trumps disliked enough Biden can still win, but I've found that argument weaker and weaker by the day
     
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  23. Tobias

    Tobias dan “the man qb1” jones fan account
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    i am firmly aboard the hot take express that trump will absolutely wipe the floor with biden
     
  24. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hot dog
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    That 2 minute video you posted the tweet of makes me tend to agree. He has real trouble getting thoughts out often times. Going to look terrible in a debate where Trump will definitely point it out.
     
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  25. Tobias

    Tobias dan “the man qb1” jones fan account
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    he's just as senile as trump but doesnt have the charisma and braggadocio of trump to cover it up
     
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  26. Rothko

    Rothko YYUUUU
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    I agree that ticket would demoralize many progressives, but the question is who has the best shot. Biden choosing Casey (or Wolf) is like the brilliance of Clinton choosing Gore. It firmly puts PA in the Dem camp, which all but ends Trumps path to 270.

    And Trump wouldn’t be able to likewise crater Bernie who will be seen as Lenin light taking over? Maybe in an 08like setting, but unless the economy tanks, I still doubt Bernie could withstand the assault that would be unleashed on him should be emerge as the nominee...
     
  27. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    I'm telling you, that an old white guy double ticket will never, ever, ever happen.

    You want every young person and person of color to go full nihilist and punch out? That's what you do.

    Hard to crater Bernie with that line of attack when policy wise on the global policies you're very similar, at least rhetorically.
     
    slogan119 likes this.
  28. AlternativeFactsRule

    AlternativeFactsRule Mmm ... Coconuts
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    The “socialist” tag is going to be used against whichever Dem gets the nom. Selecting a candidate you believe will be the least likely to be insulted by Trump and the GOP is a fool’s errand.
     
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  29. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    The Democrats need to flip 38 electoral votes.

    They need to hold all of the blue states they won in 2016 which might flip or we’re close (Virginia 13, Minn 10, Nevada 6, Colorado 9, NM 5).

    They need to find 38 from these 2016 red states (Florida 29, Pennsylvania 20, Ohio 18, Michigan 16, NC 15, Wisconsin 10, or Iowa 6).

    Basically, they need a candidate who can beat Trump in the Midwest.

    Right now, that’s Biden or Sanders.
     
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  30. Homo Erectus

    Homo Erectus Well-Known Member
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    Agreed, he's going to insult and poke/prod whoever. If you're accomidating that asshole he's already compromising your gameplan.
     
  31. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    I get people are nervous and want the safe win, I largely held to the Biden is the safest win on the board for a lot longer than most, I just don't find it convincing anymore. At least in the "hes by far the safest" type category. Especially in light of Bernies polling in a general setting and fundraising. (H2H polling at this stage isn't predictive but there is something to say that he matches Biden)
     
  32. AlternativeFactsRule

    AlternativeFactsRule Mmm ... Coconuts
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    I’d probably add Arizona’s 11 votes to the list.
     
  33. Homo Erectus

    Homo Erectus Well-Known Member
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    I would be ok with Bernie/Warren ticket with agreement he steps down and presumptively she's in line for 2024.
     
  34. Tobias

    Tobias dan “the man qb1” jones fan account
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    if she's not president she better stay in the senate (ideally as majority leader)
     
  35. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    Biden is literally running the Hillary 2016 playbook (she was largely forced into this due to media failures but we'll ignore that)

    making it a moral decision, about what you want america to be, etc.

    was a lot of people post '16 claiming that was a major mistake who are now riding for Biden to run it back
     
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  36. Rothko

    Rothko YYUUUU
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    Lyrtch. The issue with Biden’s VP selection is that whoever the person is will likely end up taking over in 2024. The establishment doesn’t want to see someone like Pete or Stacey Abrams inheriting control of the party. Neither will Biden want his deputy to be seen as “the future” while he’s a placeholder.

    Poc punching out? Biden’s polling 25points higher than anyone els in SC. He’s going to win the AA vote going away.
     
  37. Blu Tang Clan

    Blu Tang Clan Whose moronic idea was it to order dry beers?
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    The day the Democrats decide to be proactive in their thinking instead of reactive to what they think Republicans want will be a great day for America.
     
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  38. Homo Erectus

    Homo Erectus Well-Known Member
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    Thats a fair point. I just want a strong ticket to beat Trump that doesnt include Biden. After that idgaf
     
  39. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    It's not about margins, it's about turnout. Every Dem is going to get the AA vote 95-5.

    Again, they aren't running an all-white male ticket with the required coalition you need in the party, ask any Dem political operative in the country. Getting into the weeds on the machinations of who Biden would want, etc doesn't matter.
     
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  40. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    It’s amazing to me how little Biden has to do to secure this nomination and how incapable he seems of doing it.
     
  41. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    It seems like his campaign tried to install guard rails for him with limiting public appearances, limited campaigning, etc, but he still can't get out of his own way.

    Which is probably why he has so many failed bids in his past, but it's even harder when you're old and the brain isn't firing as quick as it used to.
     
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  42. Rothko

    Rothko YYUUUU
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    AlternativeFactsRule. When will we all understand that it does NOT matter what line of attack the GOP uses; it ONLY matters if it’s accepted by swing voters.
     
  43. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    the better argument to have is that since basically any of the candidates CAN win you should find the candidate that has the best chance of doing big positive things so they can continue winning
     
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  44. Blu Tang Clan

    Blu Tang Clan Whose moronic idea was it to order dry beers?
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    I want the candidate that can maximize the turnout of sympathetic voters, not the one who the other guy might consider vote for if the Republican Party somehow folded in the next year.
     
  45. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hot dog
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    Just reading the quick summaries of Biden's 2008 and 1988 campaigns on wiki and they were the same kind of disasters. He wasn't running from the front in those campaigns so he never really got any momentum.

    This is from the 2008 campaign and it's basically the same kind of shit we've seen in this campaign...

    I imagine we are in store for more of this type of thing.
     
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  46. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    It’s like watching one of the Big Ten contenders struggle with a couple of MAC teams in nonconference, knowing they’re about to get their ass handed to them once we start conference play.
     
  47. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    Turnout killed Hillary in 2016 and was critical for Obama in 2012, but I don’t think there will be much problem motivating Democrats to vote in 2020.

    It’s not going to be hard to get people off the sidelines.

    My concern is that Trump remains pretty strong among the Reagan Democrat demographic in the Rust Belt.
     
  48. AlternativeFactsRule

    AlternativeFactsRule Mmm ... Coconuts
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    It only matters when the MSM gives it any credence.

    Spoiler: the MSM always falls for GOP concern trolling.
     
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  49. Rothko

    Rothko YYUUUU
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    Lyrtch. In normal times I would agree with you about the coalition. But Trump has radically altered the reality we were living in just four years ago. If Biden wins the nomination, he’s gonna ultimately chose who he wants, not someone whose presence is gonna undermine him, because why even run if you’re only gonna be viewed as a placeholder? Guess we’ll see. This will prob be a moot point anyway.
     
  50. Blu Tang Clan

    Blu Tang Clan Whose moronic idea was it to order dry beers?
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    If turnout increases, the Reagan Democrats will be swallowed by the extra voters. Trump barely prevailed in near-optimal conditions. Michigan should move back with a little push, with a slightly harder push necessary for Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Biden won’t provide that IMO.