2020 Democratic Candidate Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by NilesIrish, Mar 4, 2019.

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Who do you support

  1. Bernie Sanders

    22.3%
  2. Elizabeth Warren

    63.6%
  3. Kamala Harris

    2.2%
  4. Pete Buttigieg

    21.6%
  5. Corey Booker

    0.7%
  6. Beto O'Rourke

    1.1%
  7. Julian Casto

    0.7%
  8. Andrew Yang.

    11.2%
  9. Joe Biden

    4.5%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. jokewood

    jokewood still fucking around
    Donor

  2. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
    Donor
    Ohio State Buckeyes

    We have discussed before, by consolidate I mean candidates dropping out. Harris, Booker, and O’Rourke are all polling above debate thresholds, but have no chance at winning.

    We need to see if each of them stay in this race through the March primaries for their home states. Those three have between 10-20% of the share in a significant number of states between them.

    It’s not very clear who gets those votes if they drop.
     
  3. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
    Donor
    Ohio State Buckeyes

    Wisconsin (9/29-10/3) IBD: Biden 28, Warren 22, Sanders 17

    SC (9/29-10/2) Fox News Qualifying Poll: Biden 41 Warren 12 Sanders 10, Harris 4, Steyer 4, Booker 3
     
  4. Fran Tarkenton

    Fran Tarkenton Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Wake Forest Demon Deacons

    herb.burdette likes this.
  5. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
    Donor
    Ohio State Buckeyes

    It’s an interesting project to capture four years of data. Erie swung in 2016, but it typically goes blue by double digits.

    In 2016, Trump won more votes in Erie than any R since Nixon in 1972. Trump won it by 2000 votes, roughly 60,000-58,000.
     
  6. Fran Tarkenton

    Fran Tarkenton Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Wake Forest Demon Deacons

    gonna just continue to throw horse race stuff in here. Dems grabbing the other Senate and the run Gallego for Governor in the 2022 race. State may be fully Blue by then.

     
  7. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
    Donor TMB OG
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    More votes means a whole lot less than % of total votes or % of registered voters since populations change drastically over 47 years.
     
  8. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
    Donor
    Ohio State Buckeyes

    Not sure what point you are trying to make, but Erie County’s population has been stagnant since 1970 (really since 1960). In 1970, it was 264,000 and it’s estimated at 272,000 today based upon the 2010 census. It hit a high of 281,000 in 2000.
     
  9. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
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    It is dumb when people say things like "Beto got more votes in Texas than any other democrat in history!"
     
    Luka likes this.
  10. -Prime-

    -Prime- Well-Known Member
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  11. Beeds07

    Beeds07 Bitch, it's Saturday
    Donor
    St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Blues

  12. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
    Donor
    Ohio State Buckeyes

    There are 12 candidates qualified for the debate on 10/15.

    With the Winthrop and Fox polls that dropped in the last week, there are now 7 for November. Both Booker and Steyer qualified this week.

    November has Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg, Booker, and Steyer.

    Yang needs one more qualifying poll to make November.

    Beto and Klobuchar meet donor requirements, but each still need three qualifying polls.
     
    Luka likes this.
  13. MORBO!

    MORBO! Hello, Tiny Man. I WILL DESTROY YOU!!!!
    Donor
    New York GiantsNew York YankeesAtlanta UnitedUCF Knights

    Can we just give it to Liz and be done already ffs
     
  14. Fuzzy Zoeller

    Fuzzy Zoeller College football > NFL

    What % do they have to reach to qualify for the November debate?
     
  15. blotter

    blotter Aristocratic Bum
    Donor
    Florida State Seminoles

    Liz is too far left. Same for bernie. Joe has misplaced his marbles and the rest are a joke. There is only one person who can thread the needle for 2020



     
  16. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
    Donor
    Ohio State Buckeyes

    3% in four qualifying polls or 5% in two, with a list of about a dozen organizations which are “qualifying” polls.
     
  17. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
    Donor
    Ohio State Buckeyes

    No, not until she wins Ohio.
     
  18. Fuzzy Zoeller

    Fuzzy Zoeller College football > NFL

    Good gosh, DNC. If it's October and you're polling at 3%, you're not really in the race.
     
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  19. BWC

    BWC It was the BOAT times, it was the WOAT times
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    Nebraska CornhuskersChicago CubsPittsburgh SteelersPittsburgh PenguinsNebraska Cornhuskers alt

    I'm waaaay behind, obvi, but this was absolutely pathetic on your part
     
  20. BWC

    BWC It was the BOAT times, it was the WOAT times
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  21. BWC

    BWC It was the BOAT times, it was the WOAT times
    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersChicago CubsPittsburgh SteelersPittsburgh PenguinsNebraska Cornhuskers alt

    Also gross
     
    bro likes this.
  22. BWC

    BWC It was the BOAT times, it was the WOAT times
    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersChicago CubsPittsburgh SteelersPittsburgh PenguinsNebraska Cornhuskers alt

    I hope September 30th was better for you. Otherwise, not looking so good from September 29th's returns
     
    Beeds07 likes this.
  23. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    Tennessee VolunteersLos Angeles DodgersBuffalo BillsBuffalo Sabres

    The hill is the worst
     
  24. Mister Me Too

    Mister Me Too Well-Known Member
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    New York MetsNew York KnicksNew York Jets

    [​IMG]
     
  25. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

  26. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    all within the MoE (continues the trend of polling people predicting based on history that the Dem vs Trump margin is going to be roughly the same regardless of who wins the primary)

     
    BWC, slogan119, The Banks and 6 others like this.
  27. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
    Donor
    Ohio State Buckeyes

    They also have her 8+ above water against Trump, which is even more significant given Biden’s reliance upon electability.
     
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  28. blotter

    blotter Aristocratic Bum
    Donor
    Florida State Seminoles

    Many posters are pm'ing me and saying, sir, you have the best predictions

     
    BWC, BellottiBold, slogan119 and 2 others like this.
  29. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
    Donor
    Tennessee VolunteersLos Angeles DodgersBuffalo BillsBuffalo Sabres

  30. chuckmasterflex

    chuckmasterflex Mediocre digital spew
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  31. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
    Donor
    Tennessee VolunteersLos Angeles DodgersBuffalo BillsBuffalo Sabres

    I doubt that is what he means but it might be the eventual outcome
     
  32. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hot dog
    Donor

    Why would he attack Warren?
     
  33. Pile Driving Miss Daisy

    Pile Driving Miss Daisy It angries up the blood
    Donor
    Texas LonghornsAtlanta BravesAtlanta HawksAtlanta FalconsAtlanta UnitedGeorgia Southern Eagles

    Nate just wants that to be the case so he can be validated.
     
  34. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    he never attacked her over anything not related to policy so not the best tell there nate
     
    Tobias, Luka, slogan119 and 2 others like this.
  35. ElectricDreamMachine

    ElectricDreamMachine he was on the colgate comedy hour
    Donor
    Clemson TigersCharlotte HornetsCarolina Panthers

    i'm good with it thanks
     
  36. Name P. Redacted

    Name P. Redacted I have no money and I'm also gay
    Donor
    Kansas State Wildcats

    The Crooked One is pretty good. Poster In Chief did it again.
     
  37. blotter

    blotter Aristocratic Bum
    Donor
    Florida State Seminoles



    It is fascinating how many people are struggling with this painfully simple concept because Biden is doing sort of ok in meaningless polling five months before iowa
     
    electronic, slogan119, BWC and 16 others like this.
  38. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hot dog
    Donor

    It's why I don't really understand the "Bernie may attack Warren" angle. Historically attacking another candidate doesn't help the person doing the attacking but can hurt the person attacked, which would seem to play into Biden's hands. It's a really stupid take.
     
    slogan119, Tobias, Beeds07 and 3 others like this.
  39. Fran Tarkenton

    Fran Tarkenton Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Wake Forest Demon Deacons

  40. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    YANGMENTUM
     
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  41. Les Mocho

    Les Mocho Please don't get lost in the sauce
    Staff Donor TMB OG
    Newcastle UnitedBig 8 Conference

  42. Bo Pelinis

    Bo Pelinis WE GO HARD ON EARTH
    Donor TMB OG
    Nebraska CornhuskersBig 8 Conference

    Translation:

    "Momentum is good so I don't need to throw a hail mary."
     
  43. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
    Donor
    Ohio State Buckeyes

    We are getting a significant number of state-based polls over the last month. Warren is gaining everywhere, but she needs either to start running higher margins in places like California or cut into Biden’s margins down South.

    Her single digit leads in California aren’t enough to offset Biden’s double digits in FL, TX, NC.

    I’ll be interested to see if she starts pivoting toward those states.
     
  44. Spike 80DF

    Spike 80DF Too Much Bama In Me
    Alabama Crimson Tide

    Fuuuuck yes. So happy to hear this. Of course the comments on that tweet are almost nothing but rose emojis talking about how you can't trust Warren.
     
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  45. AlternativeFactsRule

    AlternativeFactsRule Mmm ... Coconuts
    Donor TMB OG
    Michigan WolverinesSwansea

     
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  46. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
    Donor
    Ohio State Buckeyes

    She will swing up in Texas, but right now it’s trouble for her. A minority of recent polls have her below 15% threshold there.

    15% is very unlikely, but it’s catastrophic for her in Texas if it does happen.
     
    Luka likes this.
  47. AlternativeFactsRule

    AlternativeFactsRule Mmm ... Coconuts
    Donor TMB OG
    Michigan WolverinesSwansea

    Castro and Beto won't be on the ballot by the time that primary rolls around
     
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  48. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
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    The field will be much more condensed by then, I dont think 15% is much of a concern.
     
  49. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
    Donor
    Ohio State Buckeyes

    Like I said, it’s unlikely, unless we see Beto do something like Kasich/Ohio 2016 and/or Sanders start to recover his polling slide.
     
  50. BWC

    BWC It was the BOAT times, it was the WOAT times
    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersChicago CubsPittsburgh SteelersPittsburgh PenguinsNebraska Cornhuskers alt

    Oh, I'm sure you are. Bet Bernie's not though.