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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by NilesIrish, Mar 4, 2019.
WHAT DO YOU MEAN, YOU PEOPLE!?
what about being positive and incorrect, Fuzz?
I was pretty positive Clinton would win in 16 and I will never make that mistake again
how about finding the notion that the Dems were going to spend the whole campaign kowtowing to mythical moderate Republicans unspeakably stupid? That worked out!
did amy mcgrath do 9/11
Yes, blind optimism can be as dumb as blind pessimism.
That's why I try my best to be a realist. The reality, based on the polling as it sits today, is that Biden is a heavy favorite to win the election.
Reality based polling that literally doesn't account for the outright cheating the GOP will engage in
538 is giving an electoral tie a 1% chance right now lol
morning consult has maybe the singularly most swingy polling of anyone this cycle, it's wild
Set your alarms!
i doubt i’ll be able to sleep
I would have thought Pennsylvania to be Biden's strongest state, not his weakest. Though I have no idea why I think that. Maybe because he's from Delaware and his campaign HQ is in Philly?
Bidens number with olds is astronishing
also gen x'ers are trash
Idk what can be done about gen x but hopefully some SS and Medicare pushes, along with movement on the environment can add to those other margins.
Oh also boomer veterans, you're losers and suckers.
Gen Xers seem like the people who get up in arms about cancel culture and live on Facebook because they feel old and worried about their place in the world. Eat a dick
White people are hella dumb.
these RV/LV screens at basically net 0 are a big dynamic shift, saw it in '18 too
Maybe Trump's plan to let all the old people die for the economy backfired
There are significant blocs of traditionally blue voters in the Lehigh Valley up through Scranton and also in Western PA who still view their local economies as tied to steel and energy (coal, power plants, gas fracking).
Whether those economies are or not is beside the point. They think they are.
Trump scored points on steel/aluminum tariffs, regardless of the bad policy it was.
Every Republican in Western PA is trying to scare voters with the idea that a green new deal will kill fracking jobs.
In Western PA, it’s effective because all of the unionized trades are seeing most of their work come through gas fracking infrastructure projects like a $1 billion ethylene cracker plant Shell has under construction outside Pittsburgh.
I forgot how much I hated this part of the election cycle where I live and die by each poll release
Yes all this new Gen X hate inject it into my veins
But Biden is only doubling the 2016 winning margin in Minnesota
The trump admin and his scotus appointments—notoriously pro union.
There are needles to thread and Biden has less than two months to do it.
Gen X is your older brother who calls you a pussy for not fighting back then snitches to your parents when you pop him.
Same with the High Turnout screens, gleaning Dem enthusiasm compared to past two cycles, and/or timid GOP support.
seems like biggest unknown this cycle, beyond correctly modeling electorate composition, is polling the Hispanic vote correctly. Most noise there.
Do words mean anything anymore? I'm going with no
I know we've talked about this too much already but Trump is closer to being a great businessman than Biden is to being a socialist
I remember when everyone was worried about them painting Bernie as a socialist.
*check the 538 forecast that will set the tone for the day*
I really have not seen much polling in Western PA. There was a June poll of the PA16, which stretches the Ohio border north of the Ohio River to Lake Erie. That’s a red district that was R8 in the June poll.
I would love to see how Lamb is polling in the PA17. Lamb had a healthy 12.5 win over an incumbent there in 2018 after redistricting.
The PA17 is as Rust Belt as it gets. It includes all of the river communities as the Ohio River heads west.
Hopefully Bloomberg spends that $100 million wisely in Florida. At least 25% if not more should go into Spanish Language advertising on social media, tv and other forms. Like one of the tweets above said, Biden gets Hillary’s 2016 Hispanic vote and he wins Florida.
I'm sure how you counter this nonsense but outreach to Hispanics is a must
white guy saying stuff alert: i don't understand the thing where latinx people are skeptical of biden when the other choice has called their friends and possibly their direct relatives rapists who bring "drugs and crime" to this country
start a 2020 election thread where we can follow the horse race so we don't clutter this thread for the folks still wanting to litigate the primary
they arent monolithic group, like the dynamic to follow vis a vis the electoral college are Puerto Ricans along I-4 versus Venezuelans/Cubans in Miami. The Trump admin has been very deliberate and targeted in throwing out red meat to the latter.
And how those communities view Trump in California-Arizona-NewMx-Texas-Nevada is also nuanced. And vary greatly from those in Florida. There isnt a clear cut answer.
Gen X’ers are going to make Boomers look smart in comparison
AND THEY ARE STILL DOING IT
or i can just rename this thread since outside of tangents it is that
To add to fran's post the guy organizing the Trump boat parades is a Peruvian immigrant who was convicted of conspiracy to distribute weed. His sentence was substantially reduced because he cooperated with the feds, Trump's openly flaunted the idea of outlawing cooperation for reduced sentences. There isn't a rhyme or reason for a lot of his support other than fuck you got mine.
fran already answered but the cultural, religious, and political dynamics of the different hispanic groups in the US is lets just say VARIED
before even getting into the groups that, for lack of a better phrase, identify as part of the white majority and have their own hatred for other hispanic groups that Trump often vilifies. do the whole kick down the ladder now that i'm through regarding immigration thing, etc.
so if you have a second generation immigrant who largely tries to white pass and is devoutly religious and conservative that's an easy square
(im making wild generalizations here fwiw)
I guess it's just anecdotal but pretty much every latinx person I know is either related to or knows closely people who are undocumented. One of the dudes I work with has been here for like 40 years but his English is still pretty bad, probably because he only speaks English at work. He wears Navy and Marine hats so people don't fuck with him. I can't imagine this experience is unique across any of these states, and yet we get polls like this one