2020 Presidential Election Thread - Debate Night #1

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by NilesIrish, Mar 4, 2019.

?

Who do you support

  1. Bernie Sanders

    40.2%
  2. Elizabeth Warren

    42.7%
  3. Kamala Harris

    2.1%
  4. Pete Buttigieg

    12.7%
  5. Corey Booker

    0.2%
  6. Beto O'Rourke

    0.9%
  7. Julian Casto

    0.2%
  8. Andrew Yang.

    9.5%
  9. Joe Biden

    12.7%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    WHAT DO YOU MEAN, YOU PEOPLE!?
     
  2. Iron Mickey

    Iron Mickey is this thing on?
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    what about being positive and incorrect, Fuzz?
     
  3. i am a bammer

    i am a bammer Ben Eblen>Jamychal Green
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    I was pretty positive Clinton would win in 16 and I will never make that mistake again
     
  4. Iron Mickey

    Iron Mickey is this thing on?
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    how about finding the notion that the Dems were going to spend the whole campaign kowtowing to mythical moderate Republicans unspeakably stupid? That worked out!
     
  5. Tobias

    Tobias dan “the man qb1” jones fan account
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    did amy mcgrath do 9/11

     
    yaywaffles, Evil Homer, Dump and 4 others like this.
  6. Fuzzy Zoeller

    Fuzzy Zoeller College football > NFL

    Yes, blind optimism can be as dumb as blind pessimism.

    That's why I try my best to be a realist. The reality, based on the polling as it sits today, is that Biden is a heavy favorite to win the election.
     
  7. CaneKnight

    CaneKnight Well-Known Member
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    Reality based polling that literally doesn't account for the outright cheating the GOP will engage in
     
    IV likes this.
  8. Tobias

    Tobias dan “the man qb1” jones fan account
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    538 is giving an electoral tie a 1% chance right now lol
     
  9. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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  10. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    morning consult has maybe the singularly most swingy polling of anyone this cycle, it's wild
     
  11. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    Set your alarms!
     
    herb.burdette likes this.
  12. Tobias

    Tobias dan “the man qb1” jones fan account
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    i doubt i’ll be able to sleep
     
  13. Fuzzy Zoeller

    Fuzzy Zoeller College football > NFL

    I would have thought Pennsylvania to be Biden's strongest state, not his weakest. Though I have no idea why I think that. Maybe because he's from Delaware and his campaign HQ is in Philly?

     
  14. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    Bidens number with olds is astronishing

    also gen x'ers are trash
     
  15. Josey Wales

    Josey Wales Well-Known Member
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    Idk what can be done about gen x but hopefully some SS and Medicare pushes, along with movement on the environment can add to those other margins.

    Oh also boomer veterans, you're losers and suckers.
     
    Lipp the Gay Liberal and IV like this.
  16. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    Gen Xers seem like the people who get up in arms about cancel culture and live on Facebook because they feel old and worried about their place in the world. Eat a dick
     
  17. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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  18. ashy larry

    ashy larry marcy projects, son
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  19. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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  20. AlternativeFactsRule

    AlternativeFactsRule Mmm ... Coconuts
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    White people are hella dumb.
     
  21. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    these RV/LV screens at basically net 0 are a big dynamic shift, saw it in '18 too
     
    Fran Tarkenton likes this.
  22. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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  23. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hotdog
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    Maybe Trump's plan to let all the old people die for the economy backfired
     
  24. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    Ohio State Buckeyes

    There are significant blocs of traditionally blue voters in the Lehigh Valley up through Scranton and also in Western PA who still view their local economies as tied to steel and energy (coal, power plants, gas fracking).

    Whether those economies are or not is beside the point. They think they are.

    Trump scored points on steel/aluminum tariffs, regardless of the bad policy it was.

    Every Republican in Western PA is trying to scare voters with the idea that a green new deal will kill fracking jobs.

    In Western PA, it’s effective because all of the unionized trades are seeing most of their work come through gas fracking infrastructure projects like a $1 billion ethylene cracker plant Shell has under construction outside Pittsburgh.
     
  25. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hotdog
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    I forgot how much I hated this part of the election cycle where I live and die by each poll release
     
  26. Bo Pelinis

    Bo Pelinis WE GO HARD ON EARTH
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    Yes all this new Gen X hate inject it into my veins
     
    Lipp the Gay Liberal and IV like this.
  27. Fran Tarkenton

    Fran Tarkenton Well-Known Member
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    But Biden is only doubling the 2016 winning margin in Minnesota
     
  28. Josey Wales

    Josey Wales Well-Known Member
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    The trump admin and his scotus appointments—notoriously pro union.

    There are needles to thread and Biden has less than two months to do it.
     
    steamengine, Dump, IV and 1 other person like this.
  29. Bo Pelinis

    Bo Pelinis WE GO HARD ON EARTH
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    Gen X is your older brother who calls you a pussy for not fighting back then snitches to your parents when you pop him.
     
  30. Fran Tarkenton

    Fran Tarkenton Well-Known Member
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    Wake Forest Demon Deacons

    Same with the High Turnout screens, gleaning Dem enthusiasm compared to past two cycles, and/or timid GOP support.

    seems like biggest unknown this cycle, beyond correctly modeling electorate composition, is polling the Hispanic vote correctly. Most noise there.
     
    Lyrtch likes this.
  31. Butthead

    Butthead uh hu hu hu

    Do words mean anything anymore? I'm going with no
     
  32. Butthead

    Butthead uh hu hu hu

    I know we've talked about this too much already but Trump is closer to being a great businessman than Biden is to being a socialist
     
  33. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hotdog
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    I remember when everyone was worried about them painting Bernie as a socialist.
     
  34. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    *wake up*

    *make coffee*

    *check the 538 forecast that will set the tone for the day*
     
  35. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
    Donor
    Ohio State Buckeyes

    Noncollege whites

    I really have not seen much polling in Western PA. There was a June poll of the PA16, which stretches the Ohio border north of the Ohio River to Lake Erie. That’s a red district that was R8 in the June poll.

    I would love to see how Lamb is polling in the PA17. Lamb had a healthy 12.5 win over an incumbent there in 2018 after redistricting.

    The PA17 is as Rust Belt as it gets. It includes all of the river communities as the Ohio River heads west.
     
  36. RavenNole

    RavenNole Well-Known Member
    Baltimore RavensTampa Bay LightningChelsea

    Hopefully Bloomberg spends that $100 million wisely in Florida. At least 25% if not more should go into Spanish Language advertising on social media, tv and other forms. Like one of the tweets above said, Biden gets Hillary’s 2016 Hispanic vote and he wins Florida.
     
    Dump, Josey Wales, IV and 1 other person like this.
  37. JGator1

    JGator1 I'm the Michael Jordan of the industry
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    I'm sure how you counter this nonsense but outreach to Hispanics is a must

     
  38. Butthead

    Butthead uh hu hu hu

    white guy saying stuff alert: i don't understand the thing where latinx people are skeptical of biden when the other choice has called their friends and possibly their direct relatives rapists who bring "drugs and crime" to this country
     
    IV likes this.
  39. Fran Tarkenton

    Fran Tarkenton Well-Known Member
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    Wake Forest Demon Deacons

    start a 2020 election thread where we can follow the horse race so we don't clutter this thread for the folks still wanting to litigate the primary
     
  40. Butthead

    Butthead uh hu hu hu

     
  41. Fran Tarkenton

    Fran Tarkenton Well-Known Member
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    Wake Forest Demon Deacons

    they arent monolithic group, like the dynamic to follow vis a vis the electoral college are Puerto Ricans along I-4 versus Venezuelans/Cubans in Miami. The Trump admin has been very deliberate and targeted in throwing out red meat to the latter.

    And how those communities view Trump in California-Arizona-NewMx-Texas-Nevada is also nuanced. And vary greatly from those in Florida. There isnt a clear cut answer.
     
  42. Fire Jimbob

    Fire Jimbob #1 Alex Caruso Stan
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    Gen X’ers are going to make Boomers look smart in comparison
     
    IV and Iron Mickey like this.
  43. Fire Jimbob

    Fire Jimbob #1 Alex Caruso Stan
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    AND THEY ARE STILL DOING IT
     
    Iron Mickey likes this.
  44. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    or i can just rename this thread since outside of tangents it is that
     
  45. JGator1

    JGator1 I'm the Michael Jordan of the industry
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    To add to fran's post the guy organizing the Trump boat parades is a Peruvian immigrant who was convicted of conspiracy to distribute weed. His sentence was substantially reduced because he cooperated with the feds, Trump's openly flaunted the idea of outlawing cooperation for reduced sentences. There isn't a rhyme or reason for a lot of his support other than fuck you got mine.
     
  46. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    fran already answered but the cultural, religious, and political dynamics of the different hispanic groups in the US is lets just say VARIED

    before even getting into the groups that, for lack of a better phrase, identify as part of the white majority and have their own hatred for other hispanic groups that Trump often vilifies. do the whole kick down the ladder now that i'm through regarding immigration thing, etc.

    so if you have a second generation immigrant who largely tries to white pass and is devoutly religious and conservative that's an easy square

    (im making wild generalizations here fwiw)
     
    Butthead and Dump like this.
  47. Butthead

    Butthead uh hu hu hu

    I guess it's just anecdotal but pretty much every latinx person I know is either related to or knows closely people who are undocumented. One of the dudes I work with has been here for like 40 years but his English is still pretty bad, probably because he only speaks English at work. He wears Navy and Marine hats so people don't fuck with him. I can't imagine this experience is unique across any of these states, and yet we get polls like this one
     
    Daniel Ocean likes this.