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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by NilesIrish, Mar 4, 2019.
I believe I read Harrison is shutting off his donation site to push money elsewhere so he is good.
Thanks $200 to the resistance.
since when do people think espy is competitive
Thanks, they're all included in the 11 person index for ActBlue.
$250 to Ossoff, $250 to Warnock, $250 to Greenfield, $250 to Peters - because either the polling in his race is wrong or the Presidential polling in MI is wrong or he's really running 6 points worse than Biden, either way, in two of those three scenarios he needs the cash.
- Most recent poll has him down 1%
- MS has the highest share of African American voters of any state (38%)
- Espy has so significantly out-raised Hyde-Smith and invested it in a GOTV infrastructure that hasn’t existed before in the state
- Strong MS Dem voter enthusiasm for down ballot race (Latrice Brooks; Supreme Court candidate)
appreciate the response just think there's lots better use for that money vs longshots even if there's some secondary reasons to be bullish
Yeah, I definitely should’ve included Peters. Is the Ossoff race actually competitive? It seems to me Warnock is more likely to beat Loeffler outside the margin of GA GOP election rigging than Ossoff to beat Perdue.
I can see Peters running behind Biden, his opponent is not a complete POS as far as the GOP is concerned. He also allows the racists to vote for him and think it absolves them of being racist.
My perception - purely anecdotal from family in rural Holmes County and suburban Jackson - is that between Espy’s GOTV and Brooks’s candidacy, black voter turnout is being significantly improved. Still, an espy win relies on him winning like 20-25% of white voters with a higher black voter turnout. I’d rather throw money at that GOTV effort than at Harrison, Ossoff or Hegar, for example.
It feels like Biden and Ossoff are tied at the hip. Either both will win or both will lose in GA. It's a coin flip, every dollar helps.
I guess Trump would stop fighting COVID out of spite, but I don’t know how we’d be able to tell that was the case.
He would have a price on his head.
If my life’s work was protecting people from diseases I’d probably be mildly pissed at Trump but what do I know
where do you see a better use of money? Maine, Iowa and especially South Carolina are flushed with cash. I think Mississippi, Michigan (this one has been creeping closer), Kansas, Alaska and Texas in that order is where I would look.
You also have to look at bang for your buck. In Texas, you need significant funds to move the needle. In Mississippi or Alaska you don’t. That Mississippi race has been poorly polled. That race could go anywhere from R+3 to D+5 and I wouldn’t be surprised. In a cheap state with the highest black population per capita in the country, a good black candidate and a white republican who has joked about lynchings before, I’ll take my chances. She beat him by 7 in 2018 and I would expect turnout to be much more favorable this time around.
Georgia and Montana before Mississippi imo.
Does Mississippi have a runoff if neither Senate candidate doesn't hit 50%? In Georgia we will for both races, and that would definitely impact whether I would spend money in Mississippi or not, I think turn out as much harder in December or January than in November.
Using decimals feels like artificial precision when there’s a margin of error of multiple percent.
Yeah that was pretty strange
I gave to espy just because he seems nice and his opponent doesn’t.
Anyone voting for trump at this point won't worry about some covid that's just the flu
my girlfriend got a text from a friend of hers growing up.
“who should I vote for? What’s the difference? I just know Trump is annoying.” She had never voted before.
it’s easy for us in our informed bubble to forget that there are plenty of uninformed people who still care about covid. Not every vote for trump is one of his MAGA idiots. Plenty of uninformed people.
for the record her friend is mailing in her ballot for Biden in Florida so +1 for the good guys.
Dump is too harsh with the language, but do it.
i wonder what the data says about campaigning as an incumbent. i can see a challenger attracting people who are curious about their positions but everyone already knows the incumbent.
lots of polls tomorrow
I wonder if these are the polls that are supposed to be "devastating" to Trump that were teased earlier today?.
Biden leading those three states would cause a major cream in my pants incident
I know this isn’t right, that there is a lot that needs to be done to undue the mess we’re in.... but I really hope Biden wins, the senate goes blue, and starting in January I can go back to only slightly following politics, at least for a couple months.
doubt it, NYT's team publishes soon after completing so these probably aren't even done polling or all that close
Yeah, I doubt anything in MI or WI would be earth shaking anyway. We know Biden has a sizable lead in those states.
I get the sentiment, but we had, and still have, major crisis that pre-dated Trump that we'll supposedly push Biden "to the left" on if we try according to pundits. Him, Schumer, Pelosi, and others need to feel the fire right on their septuagenarian assholes if we want the US to actually becoming materially better for poor people and the underprivileged.
I think that was the wash post/ABC that was 54-42 Biden. +12 in that poll is pretty bad. Especially with that poll done after trump got out of the hospital and mostly after the VP debate. Showed that neither of those moved the needle.
imo a national poll isn’t gonna move the needle for most... it’s gotta be the state polls
Didn't it imply multiple poll results in that tweet? At least that's how I read it.
The Bidenpocolypse thread only getting a page a week (or two) will be quite a jarring shift
My guess is a decent Biden lead in Texas and/or blowout territory in Florida from a strong pollster.
The original said two but I think Dave only saw one.
I don’t think we really know, no one polls there
But the Biden Redemption thread is gonna be hopping (hopefully) as we mark any undoing of Trump-era policies/Trump-era cronies dying/getting their comeuppance
Yeah I think it’s more likely the other thread is full of us bitching about none of this happening
It’ll be most of us being disappointed and CaneKnight screaming that every Democrat and their family should be dipped in vats of sulfuric acid.
In the ABC/wash post poll, Americans only oppose the ACB hearing starting today 52 to 44. That’s an epic failure in messaging by democrats. I believe it was 70 to 30 opposed like 2 weeks ago. Dems have done such a poor job articulating why this is bad.