Advanced analytics are not predictive, especially when trying to project individual player growth and development. Granted, I think they’re all wrong about Levis. But that point about analytics is something most folks don’t realize. They just assume these “fancy stats” are infallible, and if they prove they’re not, they’re deemed totally useless. The reality is, they’re somewhere in the middle.
Also if the Bears can trade back and get Anderson or Carter at 4 isn’t that kind of no brainer? Assuming AZ takes one then they take the other?
packers trading back to take a defensive lineman who doesn't even start for his college team is so on brand. but i do like that second round pick though.
Really interested to see what his 40 time will be, if he runs at all While he is massive, sometimes it looked like he was just running in slow motion
Fair enough and idk if he will run but I lean towards no. He's been banged up a some point in every season and it's usually an ankle iirc. He's a fantastic blocker at the LOS and in space. He will add a lot of value immediately IMO. Jags should bring Engram back to go with Darnell imo.
Removing cost from the equation, the Lions are probably the perfect place for Richardson. I don’t think he’ll ever end up as a good QB but the situation/style of play would benefit him more than most places. Hard pass once you factor the cost though.
I get the reason why people will mock Richardson to the Lions for the next 3+ months. An argument can definitely be made that it's the right move. I don't think there's any real chance it happens, though. I think there's a much greater chance the Lions package 6 and 18 to move up for Carter or Anderson than there is they use one of those picks on a QB.
Yeah Holmes has proven he’s not afraid to make a move to get his guy. I anticipate him at least trying to get into the top 3 to land either of those guys.
- Tyree Wilson being a top 10 pick is crazy to me - please lets not get the Chiefs to pick JSN for the sake of the league - Achane going to the Dolphins with Tyreek and Waddle. Ultimate track team.
I'd be excited if the Chiefs ended up with JSN, but I think pending decisions on Orlando Brown Jr. and Chris Jones will influence their first round pick, and depending on what directions they go think they'll take an OT or pass rusher.
If the Seahawks can’t get Anderson/Carter in the 5 spot, would be a big fan of a QB hungry team trading up.
Seahawks will draft Tyree Wilson or Bryan Bresee with Will Anderson still on the board. I think they will do something wild
I think the funniest resolution would be the Bears trading down to 4 to get "whoever is left of Anderson/Carter" only for Seattle to trade up to #2 once Houston realizes it doesn't really care between Levis/Stroud. Leaving the Bears at #4 with no leverage since both Stroud and Levis are still there
Yes, its the no brainer move. Everything else being spoken about is just crazy sauce. Extract the maximum you can from Indy and let it play out. I will say if someone picking beyond Indy wants to give us the Ricky Williams package I would sign up for that in the 1% chance it happens.
I see a lot of people talking about trading back in the draft and then taking "whoever is left" out of seemingly close to equal prospects, like Anderson & Carter for instance. isn't it worth more to your franchise to do the work studying these players and getting to know them and then own that decision yourself, rather than give that massive decision for your franchise to someone else for the sake of draft capital? I think people fall into the trap where just because guys are next to each other on a bunch of rankings lists that means they're equal. every guy is going to have a unique skill set and personality that the teams need to identify and choose what fits their best with their franchise.
I don’t think Carter or Anderson fall to 5, which is why I would love for a team desperate for a QB to trade into their spot. Also, Schneider constantly trades down in the first and sometimes out of the first entirely. Given we have two 1sts, I imagine he has all sorts of ideas with at least one of those picks if they don’t have someone they love available (they stuck and picked ET and Okung the last time they had two 1sts).
I agree with this, but especially when it comes to guys at the same position. It will always be bizarre to me when you see stuff like the SF deal that got them Lance or the Philly trade that got them Wentz where they didn't even know who would be on the board. They just decided to take whoever was going to be leftover like it didn't matter.
I would imagine they had scouted both qbs and while they had a preference would be happy with either at their spot
The expectation is they do the work and come to the decision that the margin between the two is small enough that they'd rather also have another first round pick than the ability to choose between them
that's fair, but I feel like that would be a much more rare occurrence than how often it is thrown around by fans.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame The Chargers need to make changes this offseason, and it will be interesting to see what buttons they push. Something the organization should be trying to do every year is upgrade on offense around their talented quarterback, Justin Herbert. Michael Mayer is a physical blocker and will be one of the best contested-catch tight ends in the NFL the moment he is drafted. I'll die inside if the Chargers take a TE over one of the round 1 grade receivers. Herbert has the lowest YPC stat in the NFL. Sure, lets take a TE that can catch a bubble screen over a WR that can stretch the field or actually do something with a bubble screen. I'm not a talent evaluator but surely making a bet on the top wr on their board is a bigger potential upgrade than another dime a dozen starter at TE.
This concept bothers me the most when it is applied to quarterbacks when there is a perceived supply of players worthy of a top x pick. People act like as long as you get one of those players that is a success. To hey aren't fungible assets and with QB it is possible that the wrong one provides zero value. I think Green Bay might fall into the habits you describe between Anderson/Carter, that they grade players and if they are graded equally they are comfortable moving to the back of that bunch of equally graded players. However, they also weed out a considerable portion of the draft pool with their physical traits thresholds.
i think there is some literature/studies out there that basically suggest that front offices dont have the capacity to know which player is better and the best way to draft is to simply accumulate picks. from what i remember, this is mostly geared towards the idea of trading up for "your guy" being a bad decision because you're losing the other pick(s) and still making a judgement call that is likely wrong. but presumably the same logic sort of stands with standing pat to select and trading back. but of course there are levels to it (a 1st rounder is worth more than 2 third rounders), obviously, so i'm sure the teams would need to do work to ensure the players are at the same tier level.
Here's an article on movement for the #1 pick. Basically a lot of settling among Young/Stroud/Levis/Anderson/Carter, with them the overwhelming favorites and nobody else close. But they say the most movement is Isaiah Foskey?? From 150:1 to 20:1 in a week. Other books still have him at 250:1 and even that seems like wasting money
Without question, but it's also the kind of thing every fan base has to go through any time they get a top pick. You can't help yourself from wanting to think that there's an amazing trade out there that solves all your problems. I wanted to believe that trade existed for the Lions for 4 months in the 2020 draft because of course someone was going to trade up for Tua. Stupid Jeff Okudah.
Are all three in the last 3 years too? Sounds like SF has had about as diverse and well qualified staff and office as anyone in the league
There isn't a single wr on the free agent list I'd take over a first round grade wr in this class: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/wide-receiver/?ref=trending-pages Get ILB or RT in FA or later rounds. Chargers need to gamble on a game breaker in round 1 imo.
He was probably one of the more underrated/under appreciated prospects in the Draft a few weeks ago, but him jumping to the 6th best odds to be drafted #1 just flips the entire script on him. I would’ve thought mid-to-late 1st would have been his absolute best case scenario.
wrong (trump gif) LB isn't valuable in the current NFL and it's especially not valued in Staley's defense. and it's especially especially not valuable because LAC drafted a first round ILB in 2020 in murray. Pipkins was just fine as a developed RT this last year. They need to resign him. They've picked 1st round LTs and RGs the last two years; a third first round OL would be egregious. WR? Yes, if someone valuable is there because you are moving away from Keenan Allen and (eventually) Mike Williams probably next offseason. But not sure there's value at #21 because it's a weak WR draft. otherwise, they need EDGE and every team always needs DL and CBs. and while i really don't want them drafting Mayer, they do need a TE. i also think LAC is a sleeper Bijan team. Ekeler is getting older and isn't spectacular (though casual fans who play fantasy football will beg to differ). Bijan would be cheap and add explosiveness and versatility to an offense that is desperate for it. they've invested a lot of late picks into RBs the last few drafts and they all sort of suck.
They have the 4th worst run defense in the league and Kenneth Murray being fucking awful is a big reason why. Trey Pipkins is also terrible and a reason they have one of the leagues worst pass rush win rate. I’ll take a DT too if it makes sense.
the run defense is bad but there's also a scheme element to it. they want teams running the ball. pipkins was pretty good this year. you're just wrong. hell, murray looked playable this year. think there was some sort of issue with him vs. staley (maybe scheme wise) because he was good for them two years ago, said he wanted to be back, and didn't command a lot of money in FA last year. tranquill was fine but it seemed dumb to let white go last year at the time and in hindsight.
you are letting your memories of Nate Gerry and Alex Singleton cloud your judgement White started off playing well but has been really really really bad in coverage the past 8 weeks to the point Edwards is now the dime backer he's been about what you would expect from a guy on a 1 yr 4 million deal
Edwards has been great but I don’t think White has been bad. best LB play the Eagles have had in years.
There’s tons of potential value at WR at 21 if there isn’t a run, stupid comment. The problem at WR is for teams like the Bears, getting a JSN or Addison late first is great value