They do it for what they do it for, once it's in the universe how do you control how people use it? SP+ is about the closest publicly available power rating to what Vegas odds are. They do their job
which are more or less same data that fpi/sp+/fei synthesizes its fits with the task of picking the best, rather than just teams with best records. Next to impossible to distinguish between teams with no common opponents.
And obviously computers don’t have the nuance of things like Ole Miss was woefully injured when they lost to 1-7 Kentucky, Miami would be 8-3 if it weren’t for two egregious officiating errors, Florida with or without a healthy Lagway, etc.
well if you (not you specifically) want to say bama deserves to get in with 3 losses over a 1 loss team bc of some vegas forecast that's a problem it goes back to the "what's the point of playing the games and just pick the playoff in the pre-season" argument
they gotta use something. how many losses you have should not be the determining factor especially with an unbalance as it relates to the competition across conferences yes, I genuinely believe a 11-1 SEC team is better than an 12-0 ACC team because of the depths of the two leagues. it's why I stood firm the committee got it right in 2023 sorry you don't agree, but I sure as fuck don't want a playoff full of Indiana's and G5 teams just because they navigated their dogshit schedules at 11-1 or 12-0
arguing 1 loss difference, I don't disagree (or rather I don't care to waste pages on that convo) but we all know they are about to argue a 2 loss difference
I love analytics but as with anything, they shouldn't be the be all end all to a discussion. but they without a doubt should be used for context about who a team is and how it got there it's a piece to solving the puzzle, but not the only solution
no they aren't. it's gonna be a 9-3 Bama vs 11-2 Miami or SMU and I say put Bama in because the ACC is dogshit
if they put Bama in over Indiana I'm totally fine with it IU looked outmatched in their only two games vs teams with legit talent. they are lucky yesterday wasn't 52-15; it was a helluva lot closer to that score than actually being competitive I also don't want to see team rewarded for dogshit schedules and that is what would happen if Indiana is included in the field in my honest opinion
yes, indiana looked bad in their matchup against a top 3 team meanwhile bama lost their 3rd game in an equally bad blowout to an unranked/.500 team very equal
It should also be noted that any controversy here is entirely self-inflicted by the NCAA. We make power conferences with unbalanced schedules and don't mandate tough non-conference play and then get confused when we can't compare
it's an opinion, man. that's all any of this really is my favorite part though is everyone said the bitching would stop at 12. it will never stop, someone (or multiple someones) will always be the first one or two out and people will scream. it's what makes this sport so fun for so long. the what ifs and woulda shoulda couldas
Hey now! Oklahoma had a bye before their matchup against Alabama. Alabama had to play ***checks notes*** Mercer the week before.
Talking heads are dumb and should be ignored, they still often care about rankings at the time of games like Georgia Tech’s win over top 10 2-9 Florida State
Every truly deserving team will get in now. If you end up at 12th or 13th and left out, lose less games. No one feels bad for them. But it was silly to think it would ever end debate. There’s consternation every year about who gets left out of a 68 team tournament field. There’s no size that will ever stop it.
I think it’s interesting for sure. Useful to see how perceptions change/were wrong or right based on sample sizes.
there is also a far different mindset and practice week by teams based on if a team has a number by their name
Injuries as well. 10-0 Florida State in week 12 of 2023 was a vastly different team than 11-0 Florida State a week later.
Let me know what I’m missing in a 12 team playoff. 5 conference champions, regardless of ranking 1 Notre Dame 3 Big Ten non-champions Oregon (1), Ohio State (2), Penn State (4) and Indiana (10). Indiana must beat Purdue, the others are probably fine. 3 Remain with the choices: Georgia (6) v. winner of Texas (3) or Texas A&M (20)—I think Georgia is in, win or lose in the SEC if they beat Georgia Tech. Texas is in. A&M must win the SEC. Miami (8) v SMU (9) loser (assuming Miami beats Syracuse—I think the loser is out. Clemson (12) if they beat SC (16)—Clemson did not play Miami or SMU, and I think they can get in over the ACC title loser if they beat a ranked SC. Tennessee (7), Bama (13), Ole Miss (15), or SC (16), The last three are going to be Georgia/Texas loser and Tennessee Clemson, Bama, SC all making a case with wins.
This is going to be the most ridiculous part. Clemson does not deserve a spot even if they beat SC, especially over a team that only gets a second loss because they go to the ACCCG (but they might)
Logically, the committee can’t take conference champ losers and move them below other teams in the same conference off that result, right? I’m clinging to that being a rule they uphold.
If Miami loses, Clemson has no shot If SMU loses, sorry about your luck Rhett Brand name will drive this decision
Clemson and Dabo are familiar brands. Send Dabo up to Columbus, Ohio in a (5) v (12) matchup and it’s a ratings blockbuster given the recent history in 2013, 2016, 2019 and 2020. Same with Alabama though, with the only difference being the committee maybe throwing the ACC an extra team to spread the wealth, which keeps Bama out. If we beat Michigan and Oregon, then I think it may be more likely Clemson gets left out for Alabama at Oregon.
I think there’s a certain aspect of the conference championship game where if you get blown out say 45-3 (let’s say SMU) that they consider the team that didn’t get a chance to be in that game (say Clemson) because of the 5th tier of a tie breaking scenario.
If Syracuse beats Miami, doesn’t Clemson control its own destiny because it goes to the ACC title game?
yes, Clemson goes to Charlotte when I said if Miami loses, I meant the ACCCG. if Miami loses to SMU in Charlotte, the committee will not jump Clemson over them. but if Miami wins, then Clemson could get in as they are bigger brand than SMU
The data in basketball is more detailed and useful for sure; football analytics not as reliable as baseball/basketball. But I never made the suggestion that there is some 1:1 facsimile in the data sets. I made the suggestion that data - generally - can be informative when trying to contrast/compare things with entirely different inputs (schedules). We use it all the time in sport. Turning a blind eye to things of utility, particularly when the charging decision underscores the need for those things, is dumb.
Preseason rankings and their current record: 1. Georgia 9-2 2. Ohio State 10-1 3. Oregon 11-0 4. Texas 10-1 5. Alabama 8-3 6. Ole Miss 8-3 7. Notre Dame 10-1 8. Penn State 10-1 9. Michigan 6-5 10. Florida State 2-9 11. Missouri 8-3 12. Utah 4-7 13. LSU 7-4 14. Clemson 9-2 15. Tennessee 9-2 16. Oklahoma 6-5 17. Oklahoma State 3-8 18. Kansas State 8-3 19. Miami 10-1 20. A&M 8-3 21. Arizona 4-7 22. Kansas 5-6 23. Southern Cal 6-5 24. North Carolina State 5-6 25. Iowa 7-4