genuinely shocked at how hard gunnerblog went at the club for the Partey situation. thought he’d do his best to rationalize the decisions.
I am enjoying Berta's approach vs Edu. Edu always seemed locked in on one target, and if it didnt work out, the window was largely fruitless. Berta has multiple irons in the fire
Good read from Edu's BBQ - just linking as it's long AF & too many images for upload https://substack.com/home/post/p-167025589?source=queue
I wonder if that was an Arteta thing as much as edu. And maybe Berta has enough cache to tell Arteta “look, we can’t put all of our eggs in one basket because otherwise you get Sterling.”
Edu (and Arteta) were new & naive, learning on the job... they were also having to convince players of the project. Berta has the benefit of recent results & selling "getting us across the line" - I'm loving the new approach as well
Spoiler: Nørgaard Scouting Arsenal’s midfield is undergoing a seismic shift with the departures of Thomas Partey and Jorginho as free agents, leaving a void in experience and depth. Into this empty space steps, the former Brentford captain Christian Nørgaard. As I do with every signing (and even some that don’t sign) we will dig into what the data is able to uncover and help give us the context about this player. I can’t help but start from the position with the opinion that while he wasn’t exactly on my radar a month ago but think that this is a player who should profile quite nicely as a cost-effective backup for Martin Zubimendi. Nørgaard’s defensive nous, set-piece threat, and Premier League experience offer Arsenal a reliable anchor to bolster Mikel Arteta’s Premier League aspirations. Let’s get into it starting straight away with a radar and distribution chart. Here we place him on the Deep Playmaker template with the idea that he’d come in at the base of Arsenal’s team and that has been more often than not the role asked of the player in that position under Arteta. The in-possession section of the graphic isn’t the prettiest here, but he does fill out the ball winning section quite nicely. Here is what it looks like on the defensive midfielder radar and the more generic central midfielder radar as well. Looking at the percentiles, it is a reminder that the green bars don’t pop but they also don’t have a lot of major areas that are not at least pretty good. I don’t worry too much about the upper right section of the chart for a defensive midfielder, focusing much more on the possession and defensive metrics. Before we get too far into things, I would highly recommend looking at the clips that Adam put together. For a defensive midfield player this is a very important part of understanding the player and it really helped me get a feel for the player, even if this a player that being in the Premier League we are more familiar with. Film Study Quickie: Christian Nørgaard ADAM RAE VOGE · JUN 25 Full disclosure here: I didn’t have a deep catalogue of film ready to go on Christian Nørgaard before Wednesday morning. Read full story Team Differences This is an important section for getting an idea of how the team he played in could be effecting the numbers we are looking at here. The difference between Arsenal and Brentford is obviously pretty large. Style wise Brentford played a pretty standard midtable type of style, lower possession mixed with very direct play. They looked to be solid at the back, even being willing to cede low quality shots in exchange for space that they could attack at speed when they won the ball back. They played a game that featured tons of turnovers and stoppages as they tired to make it as start/stop and transition based as possible. Norgaard did an excellent job for them in this role. Arsenal of last season wouldn’t be described by many as an attacking juggernaut, but they look that way in comparison to Brentford and their willingness to play ugly. The not great looking numbers continue looking at the defensive side of the game. Some of the weird style stuff really pops here, lots of shots allowed but they do a very good job of making sure that they are not high-quality shots. They do try and win the ball back but are fairly comfortable letting teams have the ball should the opportunity not present itself. Overall while this is a tricky team to make direct comparisons to Arsenal with! These two teams are pretty close to polar opposite on the way they play and this will be an important factor to remember for the rest of the numbers that we dig into here. Passing Let’s start with the high-level passing dashboard. His general skew of passing is forward. That’s not surprising for a player deeper and who plays for a team that likes to be direct, but it is box to check off. His volume of passing is a bit below average and he does a solid job completing the passes that you would expect for the difficulty. Here is what Thomas Partey’s dashboard looks like in the Arsenal team this season to get an idea of what the role at Arsenal would produce: You can pretty clearly see some of the team differences in this, at Arsenal with more possession the midfielders will generally have more attempts, this will also skew the difficulty towards passes that are shorter and more likely to keep things ticking over. This might be more of a Partey trait than an Arsenal one but his two favorite zones are the diagonal out to the right or the square pass to recirculate possession, that one isn’t quite as prevalent for Norgaard at Brentford. At Brentford he’s the sixth highest player for pass attempts, the distribution is pretty flat between these players but if you thought he was a deep lying playmaker that everything ran through for some reason this would point that it isn’t the case. Moving on looking at how his passing numbers compare to other defensive midfielders shows that this isn’t a major strength for him, at least in the Brentford system. Overall, the passing stats are very average. This shows in the film as well where he’s not going to create a ton of highlights. This is also not a one season thing either he’s been consistently in the solid but not spectacular range as passer. This is the way his passing rating looks over the last five seasons: In the Premier League he has never really broken above average but his last season in the Championship (where Brentford played a bit more of a possession style compared to their Premier League numbers) he did break out. It might be a touch optimistic to cling to that as what he could be but that is probably the bull case here, he’s probably better than just average in a team like Arsenal but the ceiling is probably in that above average range and short of an elite type player. At Brentford he’s second to Mikkel Damsgaard (this will be a reoccurring theme, he’s generally the passing hub for them at creating things) in final third entries, but this is shared overall pretty evenly. He ranks third in progressive passes at Brentford. With his deeper positioning in the midfield that makes sense, he also seems to be pretty concentrated central as well for these passes favoring passes a bit longer into the channels and out to the wing. Another bit of a nagging concern is that he is again not a player that pops up as being overly involved in the passing game. It’s hard to say if this is an instruction and a result of tactics or just a bit of a shortfall of the player where others are favored to take these tasks on. From the defensive third he’s pretty minimal in his usage, and that tracks as he is not a player to drop into the defensive line and build play. In the middle third he is more involved but it is still pretty widely and evenly spread among players. But he ranks seventh for total progressive passing distance in this section of the pitch. To again use Arsenal here to highlight some of the differences, Partey is much more involved in doing the actual progression in the middle third. Norgaard has a bit larger of a share of the total passes and significantly more average progression with his passing 100 yards per match vs 45 yards per match. We are probably looking mostly at differences in team here but this is still something to watch and be aware of. What the player seems to be is one that helps the team reach it’s ceiling by putting others in the best positions to make the actions that will show on the highlights. Carrying and Dribbling Carrying is not probably the weakest part of Norgaard’s game and we will kind of breeze through this section. This last season put him near the bottom for defensive midfielders for what he did moving with the ball at his feet. This again seems like a long-term trend, he’s been consistently average or below and it could be the start of a bit of the worrying decline as he gets further into his 30’s. This can be overcome, we just saw Arsenal have success with Jorginho in midfield without much ability to move with the ball at his feet but it is a worry in the modern Premier League. His passing and decision making are still strong enough that he can compensate for his lack of ability to allude defenders in most situations with the ball at his feet but there could be times where he gets caught with it (especially in a more possession heavy environment like Arsenal) and he can’t beat his man or create the space for his next action. Ball Winning We just breezed through his major weakness and now let’s highlight one of his biggest strengths. Norgaard has been one of the premier ball winning midfielders in Europe for the last few years. This season was no different with him showing the ability to disrupt attacks and win the ball back all over the pitch for Brentford. His legs might be going a bit but so far that hasn’t drastically shown in his ability to cover space and read the game off of the ball. He still has the athletic ability to go out and be that destroyer. Like so many of the items we have already touched upon here, how Brentford play is a critical to putting what we see into context. I do generally adjust defensive numbers for possession, but rather than just time on the ball I measure from the number of possessions in a game and the speed for how quickly the ball turns over. I favor this approach because that is really the more important factor than the share of passes between teams. Teams can play high possession games but still directly where there is lots of turnovers of possession where players can and do win the ball (Liverpool are more like this), there are teams that play at a slower pace but have tons of the ball (Arsenal are like this), there are teams that are the opposites of that as well. Brentford fall into more of the less of the ball (48% possession) but fairly high average number of possessions 73 per match compared to the Premier League average of 70 (this is up quite a bit from just a few years ago where it was 65 and is a sign of the more transition-based League). The switch to Arsenal would be pretty drastic in the contrast and would potentially limit some of the opportunities that he has to win the ball. I still would rate him highly as a ball winner, but it is an important piece of context to highlight. Final Thoughts This move on paper is not exactly thrilling or a move that most expect to drastically impact Arsenal’s chances in the Premier League or Champions League next season. The reality of a move for an older established player that is added with an eye towards depth, is that it shouldn’t have a major impact on the team and if it does that probably means that something has gone not to plan in some other part of the field to make it happen. Profile wise he doesn’t fit the typical view for an Arsenal midfielder that we have come accustomed to, he is not a highly technical passing wizard but rather more of the destroyer mold. This might limit some of the situations where he would be the right choice for Arsenal but I can imagine there are also some situations where having that set of skills in the team becomes quite valuable. One of the issues last season for Arsenal was that they dropped points from winning positions too often, leading to 14 draws last season (not all from losing positions but still that’s a lot). In the first 60 minutes of matches, with Arsenal up a goal they allowed 1.06 xG and 1.04 goals per 90. In the final 30 minutes of matches, that jumped to 1.79 xG and 2.34 goals allowed per 90. The jump at the end of games when Arsenal were trying to see out wins was a major concern, especially for a team that is as good defensively as Arsenal (even if it is probably too small of a sample size to draw major conclusions from at just over 300 minutes) and that is a situation where Norgaard can help make an impact to the team. Norgaard is a player that the ratings see as pretty divergent for the role that they would be asked to play. The last three seasons he has been one of the higher rated defensive midfielders but a borderline top 5 league level player in other roles. His last season in the Championship showed the reverse but still from a fairly low level of rating and that was in a team that at least from a possession and field tilt share were closer to Arsenal. The long and shot of this move is that I can’t help but come to any other conclusion than that this is a sensible decision for Arsenal. This is a player that is a very known quantity, he has been in the Premier League for long enough that we should feel pretty comfortable in understanding what he is good at and where his weaknesses lie, there is a clear hole in the Arsenal squad that he can fill and does so with what should be a very reasonable fee and wage. This isn’t as exciting as a player that is younger, and you can project growth onto to blossom into a superstar. He is a bit of a zag on profile but towards a more pragmatic direction that can help in situations that lead to securing pivotal points for Arsenal. That last part is what makes me really optimistic about this deal and I think sets up Arsenal to be in a better position this season with Zubimendi + Norgaard than they were last season with Partey + Jorginho.
Likely overpay, but enough to get it across the line I'd imagine -- assuming the payment structure isn't fucked. Looks like it'll be him & Eze
Spoiler: Eze Conundrum The vibes are great but where does he fit. Why would Arsenal spend first XI money on a player that doesn't have a first XI spot? Scott Willis There are rarely links to a player for Arsenal that earn nearly universal positive reaction from this fanbase. Eberechi Eze has become one of those players. He is basically the polar opposite of one Arsenal’s other links this summer in Noni Madueke. If you watch the player and especially if you watch the comps of him, you can get why that excitement is there. The player has that special je ne sais quoi with how he plays that makes you forget things for a few minutes. It is a magical quality. I wrote this the first time I looked at him: Does he have a nailed-on position? Not really, he’s a bit of a tweener between a midfielder, winger, and striker. Does he fully fit with the type of player that Areta has targeted for that advanced midfield role? Again, not particularly, with him favoring the more off ball second striker types in Kai Havertz and Mikel Merino, before potentially grooming Declan Rice for that spot. Is he exciting and just a baller that I am prepared to sort of just forget all of that and hope that you can just figure it out along the way? Oh yes, I am. I am there with the people wanting to forget about everything and just bring him hoping to figure out the rest later. While I love that feeling, it goes against my feelings as an analyst that I can just leave the very big red flag of well where do we actually play this player if he signs with Arsenal? I did a very unscientific polling of my followers to get a feel for how our fans rate him in the head-to-head matchups to get an idea of some clarity here. My view on the player is that he is an interior player, and given that he likes to drift left from those starting positions in Arsenal’s 4-3-3 base formation the first comparable player is Declan Rice. When asked, there was a pretty small minority that thought he would start more often than Rice here. I get that, Rice is Arsenal’s record signing and the team’s player of the season. The at least little bit funny part here is that I do love the profile of Eze in this spot much more. I have made no secret that I want a second highly technical player in that spot to pair with Odegaard, especially if Arsenal are going with a more true 9 in front of them instead of a player like Gabriel Jesus there. I think Eze fills out that role better for me compared to Rice currently. Rice is an extremely talented player that I am not going to doubt can add extra to his game and become the type of player that Arsenal need for this position but at least right now I think that would probably be the best position to put him in the Arsenal team but probably also the most unpopular move to actually displace a player in the first eleven. Continuing on the left side let’s go a bit wider. My followers view him as a superior player on Leandro Trossard for a left wing spot. Looking at the numbers just from last season it is closer than you think it would be given the reputations here but the big part here is that this would certainly reset the age profile here on the player. Trossard is actually a very good comparable player for me on Eze. He is more of a wide attacker that can play central compared to Eze who is a central attacker who can play wide but they share traits and add value in similar ways. At the same age they do again show up as similar players! Time has shown that Trossard has been a phenomenal signing and valuable player for Arsenal. He did move at a year older so maybe there would be a slightly longer runway for Eze to add that value but also the players that relay on quickness and dribbling age a bit less gracefully into their 30’s. While this is exciting, the financials between the deals at the moment suggest that this is not the case. Trossard came to Arsenal on a very modest fee of £20m + £7m, he also seems to have been on a wage deal that paid him closer to a backup wage than something that matched his true standing as a big rotation contributor. Eze by all reports would not be remotely close to that. He has a £60m + £8m release clause in his deal and he is paid well by Crystal Palace and while the reporting here is basically nothing my intuition is that he would request a wage that matches his fee, that has him being bought at a valuation as a key first team player. I am pulling this from my neither region, but I’d peg that at a 200k-250k kind of base expectation based on fee, the situation, his reputation, and age. That’s a lot for a Trossard replacement. Continuing on with the left wing here is how people compared him with Gabriel Martinelli. This was incredibly close, with Martinelli just edging it out. I am calling this basically a tie here and I think that is a pretty fair reflection of my own rating of the two players. Just to say it again, I think of Eze as a cental player that can drift wide and that is a big part of why I would favor Martinelli as the wide player here. Their stats back this up as well (with the caveat about the positions/teams all that). Martinelli continues to be a tough player for players that are poised to replace him to actually displace. One of the factors here is that with Eze wanting to come central that would need someone else to help hold the width on the left and I am not sure that is the best for him. Do we expect Rice to get better on doing that? Maybe he will, we did see Granit Xhaka do it. Do we expect Myles Lewis-Skelly to do it? I kind of hope not, I want him to be central and tucking in with his ability on the ball. Riccardo Calafiori could and is probably the best on that front but is he the first choice here? Lots of questions that we won’t have answers here to right now. Moving into very theoretical moves now let’s compare him to another potential signing in the crazy world where both come in to the team and Arsenal have the choice between Eze and Rodrygo. I love Rodrygo and he has long been my white whale of a signing for left wing. I think that my followers and the people that were kind enough to vote in this poll got it right. My longer view on Rodrygo is overdue and maybe that will actually be able to come out this weekend (if the news slows down enough to fit it in). The last matchup here is perhaps a bit unfair to Eze, but there is a loud minority that has the view that he could make Martin Odegaard expendable so I was willing to include it here: I will be blunt and think that this is nonsense talk. Eze is a good player but he is not really close to the creative player that Odegard is. Odegaard had a down and disappointing season last year, he still lapped Eze with his ability as a creative midfielder. Odegard is still one of the premier ball progressing players in the world and with better injury health my expectations is that this gap will only grow for the coming season. So where does this leave Eze? This is ultimately the question for me and while there is noise that this deal wasn’t in place of another attacker that doesn’t pass the smell test at all for me now that I have had more time to think about it. Arsenal’s summer business in attack seems like there was room to add a striker and not have an outgoing player but things beyond that it very well could be a one in and one out situation. My mental model is it probably looks something like this for Arsenal’s incoming/outgoing pairs right now Raheem Sterling → Noni Madueke Gabriel Martinelli → Rodrygo Leandro Trossard → Eze An optimistic person might say Trossard for Rodrygo but that is a bit too far for me right now. The thing that I come back to and have already talked about above is that this is a situation where Arsenal are paying first XI money for a player that doesn’t really have a first XI spot in the team. There is no doubt that adding him makes the team better for the next couple of seasons. Here is a hypothetical depth chart for Arsenal including players that could join Arsenal. If Arsenal believe that they have the budget for it I guess let’s go. If this move (plus the one for Noni Madueke which I like but at the right price and not at the expense of other moves) happens and the rest of the squad can be filled out nicely I would have a lot of trouble saying it is a bad decision and get the trophy that we all crave. If Arsenal have to compromise on the squad, either with other incomings or other contract renewals I would have a harder time being in support for it. Let’s hope it is the latter here.
Madueke If this doesn’t cause a significant outgoing then I’m fine with it. If Martinelli leaves because Madueke is coming in, I am going to be pissed.
I’ve given up trying to have an opinion on the summer. Attacking signings good Like Eze, also get fit/minutes concerns Like Ethan a lot but not at the expense of signings that gets us a trophy now (arguable if said signings that could impact him actually do that) Madueke stats seem impressive, I’ve no clue on him fit wise Hope that’s not the only wing add
No clue, his stats aren’t bad and we don’t really know why Ethan’s minutes dried up end of season. I certainly want to keep him.
I don’t see how we have the money to add another attacker unless one leaves. So if the club is choosing Noni Madueke in early July with Eze and Rodrygo (probably) available, I am absolutely baffled with that decision.
I guess it works with Madueke, Rodrygo, and Eze in with Trossard out but these transfer rumors are nuts
madrid seems very clear that rodrygo’s for sale. fifth straight game he’s not in the starting xi please, big berta, make it happen
I get he might be a bit of a shit-head & seems to play very selfishly, but his metrics stack up & age profile is perfect. If Arteta wants him, I'm sold.
Not trying to rehash everything, but I just finished that podcast — and AV’s too. Hearing their commentary, especially given their access to far more information than any of us, my perspective has shifted. Looking back, I was overly focused on the legal angle & the whole “innocent until proven guilty” stance, without giving enough weight to the moral side of things. Both pods did a great job of framing it in a way that resonated. Hard not to view the whole situation as a stain on the club, a missed opportunity & agree that we should all expect better.
Been said before but replacing Partey + Jorginho with Zubimendi + norgaard is a fucking great bit of business.