I think the argument is about motivation. Trump fans are going to show up. They’re motivated. Likely Biden voters aren’t similarly motivated.
And I don’t think that changes leading up to ‘24, though admittedly Trump is doing his best to get casuals to forget about how awful he was/is. I would have never thought the world’s biggest blowhard and attention whore would skip a debate and opportunity to hear himself talk, regardless of how smart it was strategically (not that anyone here is accusing Trump or his people of being smart). Meanwhile every other R nom hopeful is racing as fast as they can to support national abortion bans, book bans, the extrajudicial murdering of migrants and criminalizing/exterminating the trans community. It all serves to make Trump seem “not so bad” to casuals who haven’t really heard from him in awhile.
And while I don’t doubt that Lyrtch is right about an increased probability that Biden could win the EC without winning the popular vote, the increase is probably tantamount to something like 2% to 4%. That could be framed as doubling the odds that it happens, and without context, seem significant.
Put another way, winning the EC but not the popular vote to Republicans is a realistic and good strategy. For Dems, it is not.
I should be more specific- forget about the worst shit he’s advocated for in the past and his party currently supports. He won’t talk about abortion. He won’t talk about the vaccines he was so proud of. Those are two pretty big issues for the R electorate. Edit: he also won’t debate because he knows he can be outflanked on the right based on his 4 years in office.
Trump will skip every Republican debate (unless, in the unlikely case someone else comes within 10 points of him) and avoid trying to pull off one of the hardest tricks in politics- going from hard right to secure the nom, to more center during the presidential election to sway casuals and undecided voters. And all these other Republican morons running for president are helping him pull it off by staying in a race they have no chance of winning.
Ur wrong on this and ur good peeps but Comon man he ain’t losing the popular vote that’s fairytale shit
Youre gettin lyrtched. He didn’t say it will happen. He said the probability of it happening is going up!
It doesn’t matter if he’s attempting to court the centrists or hardcore R’s because all he spews is gibberish. And never answers the questions.
You’re right, and they’ll still vote for him. But if he can avoid saying things like “women who get abortions should be punished” and shoot migrants at the border, he’ll likely avoid the ire of the casual voter he pissed of throughout his first term. Lots of 2020 Biden voters were one issue voters- the issue was Trump. I think he understands that now and stays away from hammering the most heinous parts of the Republican platform and he can do that without losing any of his voters because they know full well he’s a s big a piece of shit as they are when it comes to the issues.
I think technically they recycled the same one from the prior election cycle, but fair point. I debated between platform and agenda and decided agenda was less laughable.
Lol at comparing fetterman’s hoodie/ shorts combo to boebert feeling up her date and blowing vape smoke in a packed theater
You guys act like you never seen a sitting member of congress vape and give a handy on video in a theater. Grow up.
Yeah, the difference is Fetterman isn't deriding people for not dressing professionally. Boebert pontificates about family values while doing shit like that. Too nuanced for Nate though.
and again, Fetterman is a progressive but honestly has been pretty quiet in the senate given his recent health stuff. Boebert is one of the loudest, dumbest, most deranged politicans in the house.
lol that’s the worst possible answer a politician can give Just fire the blue collar worker, fuck em!
We could fire Tim into the sun, but everyone feels badly they can’t notify his gf no one knows because she goes to another school.
Related, but listened to this pod last week and sheesh it was tough to listen to. It's about a network of saints that field calls from drug users and will call the cops if they appear to be od'ing. I want to buy the lady in GA a soda. https://neverusealone.com/ https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aH...cHM6Ly93d3cudGhpc2FtZXJpY2FubGlmZS5vcmc?ep=14
Federal workers are largely dem-leaning. We know that we’ve only ever missed a paycheck because of Rs and that raises come when Ds are in charge. The only exceptions I’ve found are a few people at the top (mostly judges) and people at the bottom whose brains are moosh.
Not my experience. Probably like most things depends on line of work and locations, but I've worked with tons of people who voted republican. More trump fans than not on my staff.
My experience is that govvies are center left, contractors are center right to far right, although typically not homophobic and becoming less transphobic.