Bowl Totals System - Hurry it ends January 1st. JK All bowls

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by TLAU, Dec 27, 2012.

  1. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    found this on a forum and decided to share since there are a handful of bowls left in december. if you win the 1H bet you call that a W for the game and move on. Basic Chase system, so as far as record keeping is concerned, if you lose the 1H but win the 2H it counts as a WIN (1-0) in the records.

    Check this out. Last season I decided to play 1H unders in all bowl games. What I found out was that I was 19-15. Big whoop right, that's only +2.5 units. Well, I started digging further. December, the 1H unders were 16-7, in January, they were 3-8.

    Not satisfied, I took it a step further. I looked at the 2H unders. I found out that games that went over the 1H total, mostly went under the 2H total. So, here's the gist, if you play 1H under and win, great. If you play the 1H under and lose 1 unit, then play the 2H under for 2.1 units. If you did this last year, you would have been 32-2 for 25.4 units. That's a little insane.

    The two losses to this "system" last year was Baylor/Washington which had 59 and 64 points in each half and NC St/Louiville which hit the 2H over by a point. I looked back at 2010-11 bowl games. That season yielded a 28-7 record for 4.8 units. 2011-12 was too perfect, I wouldn't expect it continue. The breakeven point on this system is 27 wins and 8 losses. For each win, you cash a unit, for each loss, you'd lose about 3.3 units. Of course, you could modify it to win less profit with the 2H under if you wish or bail on 2H depending on how the game is going. Shootouts like the Baylor/Washington game might need to be avoided.

    System is 8-0 so far this bowl season
     
    bstaple12 likes this.
  2. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Cliffs:

    Bet the 1H Under for the game.
    Win = Good for you, on to the next game
    Lose = Bet 2X your 1H bet on the 2H Under

    Giving it a test run today, as I have been skeptical hippo so far. But an 8-0 start in 2012 and 32-2 record in 2011 has made me feel obligated to at least try it for some little $15-20 bets
     
  3. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    interesting...might try it.
     
  4. 20/20/20/20

    20/20/20/20 something tasteful but not too bland
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    There is a 10% chance of this being 8-0 even if you just assume each half's o/u is a 50/50 chance independent of the other half.
     
  5. 20/20/20/20

    20/20/20/20 something tasteful but not too bland
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    That said, I took the 1H under in sjsu/bg just for fun even though this system seems pretty silly (as all systems thqt make certain plays with no regard for what the line is are).
     
  6. 20/20/20/20

    20/20/20/20 something tasteful but not too bland
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    9-0. Our 75% chance of success wins again. He says the break-even point is 27-8 though which is 77% so there needs to be some underlying value in the under of all bowl half totals for this to have a positive expected value.
     
  7. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    I am on the over in the Duke game, thoughts on still following this?
     
  8. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    starting off with a W definitely gave me enough confidence to ride the system out unless it starts tanking. Capt just do 1H under and maybe you'll win both.

    I would take actual handicapping knowledge before following a system though. and FWIW I'm playing probably $20 a game here which is minimum bet basically.
     
  9. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Maaaaaay sit out on the Baylor game though. I honestly think the Under is the pick in the game just because how could you not love both teams to score in the 40s. just seems like EVERYONE is on the Over. So may sit that one out during the 1st half and just hope 1H Over hits and play the 2H Under small or something as the back half of the chase.

    Locked in Cincy Un31.5 let's see if the streak continues
     
  10. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    2H Under 31.5

    hope the first day i get on it isn't the day it loses the first bet of the year

    :justsayin:
     
  11. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    That sucks.
     
  12. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Par for the course this year
     
  13. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    Going 2H under. So everyone play over
     
  14. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Did the 2H under hit? I called it a night and went to bed at half didn't even look at the line
     
  15. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    yeah...it did.
     
  16. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    :yaoface:

    well guess the system is at 10-1. should have stuck to original plan to sit out the 1H of baylor and play 2H. :facepalm:
     
  17. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    That is crazy.
     
  18. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    What is the game that neither hit?
     
  19. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    cincy-duke both 1H and 2H over hit bc I was on both unders
     
  20. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    oh yeah....was so pissed at that game because I had Duke for ***
     
  21. Rowdy Burns

    Rowdy Burns War Eagle Baby!

    Only game I followed it on so far was the damn duke game also. I just put one in on the Ohio game
     
  22. Rowdy Burns

    Rowdy Burns War Eagle Baby!

    This system really is on fire
     
  23. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    Look like I'll be doubling up in the second half in this navy asu game.
     
  24. longhornfan

    longhornfan Well-Known Member

    What about the Texas game
     
  25. Rowdy Burns

    Rowdy Burns War Eagle Baby!

    Hit 1H in this one. After starting out hot today I only ended up winning 1/2 a unit on this
     
  26. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    Better than losing
     
  27. I <3 bama cock

    I <3 bama cock Sharks are born swimming
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    Thanks for the link in sems thread. What is the record for the season?
     
  28. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    only applies to bowl games. was in the country all day yesterday so no idea how it went
     
  29. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
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    Are we going to try this one more time today?
     
  30. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    yea I like the Under in the Vandy game regardless. Account on 5D doesn't have enough in it to cover the other 3 games because of a way too big bet on Vandy -7 so hopefully 1H Under in Vandy game hits
     
  31. Rowdy Burns

    Rowdy Burns War Eagle Baby!

    Love first half under in GT/USC
     
  32. 20/20/20/20

    20/20/20/20 something tasteful but not too bland
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    You guys realize he plays this for all bowls right? It doesnt end on Jan 1.
     
  33. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Yea I am planning on continuing through the NCG unless it tanks. Just the 1H unders in a very insufficient sample size did much better in December than January
     
  34. TLAU

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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    1H vandy looked good end of 1Q then that offensive explosion.

    2H Un 28 (buy) looks good considering the whole game total was 53 and this puts the whole game total at 70
     
  35. Rowdy Burns

    Rowdy Burns War Eagle Baby!

    I'm getting it. I missed the 1H as i was trying to get vandy before the game started. I feel like the turnovers caused a lot of those points
     
  36. TLAU

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    2H under easy hit. no clue what the updated record is. didn't have enough available $ to get on USC Under 1H but it looks to be easy lock

    1H Un 25 for ISU/Tulsa game
     
  37. Rowdy Burns

    Rowdy Burns War Eagle Baby!

    2-0 start for the day. I have this Tulsa 1H at 25.5
     
  38. TLAU

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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    yea this under is DONE for 1H very quickly. hopefully they score a ton in 1H and the 2H line is inflated.

    There will probably be at least a couple more games that zero defense is played. hopefully can spot those and wait out the 1H and not lose that $
     
  39. Rowdy Burns

    Rowdy Burns War Eagle Baby!

    Yea this shit is done. Not sure why I went with it with tulsa's fast pace offense
     
  40. Rowdy Burns

    Rowdy Burns War Eagle Baby!

    Will probably lay off the 2H. I've got a lot riding on Tulsa and finally starting to feel good about it
     
  41. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    This whole system just seems liks you're chasing bets and that rarely works out. But congrats to those that are winning with this. Saturday afternoon and night burned me out pretty quickly on this one.
     
  42. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    Just caught Tulsa U 70 for the game.....I like that
     
  43. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    wow...2H for Tulsa game is 24.5.
     
  44. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    I will bite on it.
     
  45. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
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    Nice call! No way was I jumping on it though.
     
  46. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    Under for the game hit too......nice 12 unit win for me
     
  47. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    Won every game today with this.
     
  48. Rowdy Burns

    Rowdy Burns War Eagle Baby!

    Hate I backed off the Tulsa 2H but I'll take 3-1
     
  49. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    I'm in on today so if it goes bad it's bc of me.