Yeah, I just don't see much of an economic impact either way. On the plus side for the Brexiters, they could finally negotiate free trade deals with countries like India, which the EU has completely bottled at this point. But that's about it. I can't see tariffs being imposed at this point. Britain buys too much from Germany in particular for Merkel to allow that happen. Just fantasy and scaremongering from both sides.
Not true, there are strict rules against exit polling in the UK. Additionally there are rules for the media as well regarding what they can report the day of voting so as not to influence the vote. This is why we won't hear anything all day regarding the vote until the results are in.
You have no idea what you are talking about. John Curtice, with Strathclyde University, has conducted an exit poll for every general election since I believe 1997. The rules on it, are that no data can be released until polls are closed at 10:00 p.m. So every general election night, at exactly 10:00, an exit poll is released.
An exit poll only released after the polls close isn't an exit poll. They become results at that point.
No it isn't. An exit poll is simply a poll conducted of actual voters at the polling station. And in the UK it is released with a projection before any results have even been counted.
LOL. That article states exactly what I said, that the UK has exit polls for national elections, but will not be doing one for this referendum because of the cost/error potential.
Ohhhhhhh so now there will be no exit polls??? Love how you just slid in that you are wrong and I am right.
Can you read? I've never said there would be an exit poll tonight. There isn't going to be one. You said Exit Polls are not allowed in the UK, which is false. I mean, this was literally the last sentence of my response: "There's not going to be one tonight..."
Just to be clear everyone...no exit polls allowed in the UK today like I've been saying all along. That's how you bitch slap a poster like Z who steps out of line.
You must have gone to med school in Grenada. Exit polls are allowed today. There's just no reputable pollster doing one.
That is true. He may be a shitty pretend doctor/investor/rich guy. But damn he can suck people into arguments as good as dbl.
So biggest vote in the world in decades and people are allowed to do an exit poll but nobody wants to? Makes a lot of sense.
When did London overtake NYC as world financial capital and what are people basing that statement on? Not saying it's not true but this is the first I've heard of it
there is a lot to base it on there is actually an index, CFGI, that ranks the markets. NYC has top spot some years, but its mostly been London.
Just asking as an uninformed person here. Saw a lot of people repeating "London is #1, > NYC now" so I just wanted to ask is that a thing or are people just saying it. I wouldn't mind if you elaborated further; personally I found the idea surprising
It is an actual thing. There is objective data out there to back it up. Just google it tonight if you want to learn up.
Just because I don't have time- search "world financial capital" on Google, you'll find dozens and dozens of articles debating the topic, and what you'll find is that it is debated of course but in the last decade London appears to have overtaken or at least reached the same level as NYC.
Why are yall being contentious instead of just educating a fellow MBer. Fran Tarkenton seems to know a lot about it, just wanted to pick up info from someone who has some
to further muddy the waters for ignorant Americans, such as myself If Scotland blocks England from Brexit, what happens next? June 22, 2016 6.39am EDT Spoiler Aquir Author Duncan McTavish Professor of Public Policy and Management, Glasgow Caledonian University Scottish voters don’t regard the EU referendum with the same importance as the independence vote of 2014. No one is suggesting Scottish turnout will be anywhere near the 85% of that poll – more likely 20 points below. Yet the EU referendum could have fascinating implications for Scotland. All polls indicate a close result across the UK, but a very clear Remain vote in Scotland (and Northern Ireland). This leaves three realistic scenarios. Scotland could vote to stay in while the UK votes to leave – thanks to England. The UK could vote to stay in by a very narrow margin, with a Scottish Remain majority effectively blocking a narrow English vote to leave. Or the UK could vote Remain, with both England and Scotland in favour. Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, and her senior SNP colleagues have long said Scotland being forced from the EU against its will would be the kind of “material change” that would justify a second independence referendum. But would they want to? The first minister has also openly stated the Scottish government would only call for a referendum if public opinion indicates a significant uplift from the 45% Yes vote of 2014 – probably towards about 60%. Sturge seeks surge. Twocoms A large number of middle-class Scots voted No because of the economic uncertainty of independence. In the event of a Brexit vote, the same rationale may make them lean the other way if they thought an independent Scotland could remain in the EU. Current EU referendum polling certainly indicates the better off in Scotland are more likely to vote Remain. On the other hand, the fact that Scottish voters see the EU referendum as less important than the independence referendum suggests the EU result may not alter their opinion about Scottish independence. Either way, the Scottish government is likely to be cautious. Since economic certainty is important for these swing voters, it may be a case of seeing what happens. The UK’s exit negotiations with the EU may not run smoothly – the EU may wish to signal to the likes of the eurosceptic French that the exit path carries costs. That could boost support for independence among these middle class Scots, though how voters react to uncertainty is itself uncertain. If so, we would then probably see debates about an independent Scotland’s relationship to the remainder of the UK’s “single market” and its currency – indeed, Sturgeon has already indicated there would be discussions about Scotland joining the eurozone in the event of a Brexit. Many would want to know how welcoming the EU would be to an independent Scotland and whether fast-track entry would be possible. Even if the SNP did feel there was the momentum for another “indyref”, bear in mind the power to hold a legally secure referendum is reserved to Westminster. In this UK Leave/Scotland Remain scenario, would it authorise another vote? My guess is it would depend on the strength of feeling. David Cameron may well resist one, but a post-Brexit leader might take a different view, perhaps in a bid to shelve independence for a generation. But they might play hardball with timing, the nature of the question and so forth. The ‘Scotland blocks Brexit’ scenario On one level there ought to be no problem with our second scenario. Leading Brexiters presented themselves as strongly British unionists during both referendum campaigns, so they shouldn’t complain if the UK has voted as the UK. Yet it is still easy to imagine the idea of Scotland obstructing the will of England becoming a major political flashpoint. How it played out would depend on whether David Cameron was prime minister. If he remained there would be little immediate change, yet it would be an era of even more political positioning and posturing than now. Cameron would probably face rebellions on European issues from pro-Brexit Tories similar to John Major’s premiership post-Maastricht. He would be relying on opposition support for such votes, not least perhaps from the SNP voting bloc. This could exacerbate the sense of injustice among English nationalists already decrying the EU referendum as a European version of the West Lothian question (the problem of Scottish MPs potentially holding the casting vote at Westminster on purely English issues). None shall pass. Rolf G Wackenburg The situation could become more dangerous when the prime minister steps down. The new leader in a party whose root and branch is predominantly pro-Brexit would likely tack towards English nationalism – as Cameron himself attempted immediately after the Scottish independence referendum (his plan for English votes for English laws has led to some procedural changes in the Commons). The substance of this nationalism would matter. Would it broadly focus on tolerance, democracy and respect for diversity? Or would it be more exclusionary and self-assertive, responding to what it saw as the threats to English society? If it were more the latter that might be distinctly unwelcome in Scotland, and might have implications for independence support. On the other hand, it is not impossible to imagine an English nationalist UK government paying less attention to the devolved nations – particularly Scotland, where there are so few Tory MPs and the financial settlement with Westminster has already been agreed until 2020. The Brexiters have barely addressed the Scottish question during the referendum, so we’re really in unknown territory. Whatever the case, it would be unwise to assume that two referendum victories for Cameron would mean politics would return to the pre-2014 days. You only need look at the Scottish referendum to see that politics rarely plays out this way. Even if the vote is Remain both north and south of the Scotland-England border, there will be a Tory leadership election relatively soon and the party will have substantial divisions to heal following all the “blue on blue” hostility of the EU referendum. A Brexit leader such as Boris Johnson as prime minister while the Scottish nationalists continue to look for another independence opportunity, would certainly mean interesting times. The outcome of the vote on June 23 could well be an important staging post to whatever happens between England and Scotland next. bonus: pic of shaggy bevo, wtf
In content there's definitely some similarities. Farage is so much a better speaker than Trump could hope to be.
Why a Possible Brexit Could Affect the Markets When a butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil, a tornado forms in Texas. (Or at least that’s how the saying goes.) Thanks to modern technology, the four corners of the world are closer than ever. Even the mighty Atlantic Ocean becomes a mere pond where the markets are concerned. That’s why the ripples near one shore are often felt on the other. Brexit could have an enormous impact on the UK’s economy. Many economists believe that leaving would decrease economic growth, weaken Britain’s currency, raise the cost of imports, and even diminish London’s standing as a global financial center. Should any of these things happen, the UK’s financial health could suffer, at least in the short term. One study even suggests that British stocks “could lose up to a quarter of their value.”1 If that happens, the ripples that start near the banks of the River Thames could extend outward. There are many companies in the U.S. that have made investments in the United Kingdom. In 2014 alone, U.S. companies invested a total of $588 billion into Britain.2 These companies could be financially affected if the British stock market suffers. Even more significant is that Britain’s exit will mean the departure of over $100 billion in securities from European banks.2 And should certain members of the European Union continue to experience economic hardship, they will have to deal with it without the UK’s help. And as we’ve learned over the last half-decade, volatility in the EU means volatility around the world. Ultimately, however, the biggest impact Brexit will have can be summed up in a single word: Uncertainty. To put it simply, the markets hate uncertainty. The simple matter of not knowing what will happen is enough to make even the hardiest investors jittery. Uncertainty has been the culprit behind many periods of market volatility. With Brexit, there are so many unknowns, so many variables, so many maybes and mights. The fact of the matter is that nobody knows what the UK will do, or what the consequences will be. And that uncertainty has some investors nervous.
Both the NYSE and the Nasdaq dwarf the London Stock exchange. However, equity markets are just one slice of the pie. Bond and insurance markets, currency exchange markets, derivatives markets etc. make up the rest of the pie and represent a much larger portion of the global financial picture. London is without question the leader in these markets, and as a result wields more global financial influence.
Turnout will be the interesting thing to watch. Been some reports that it's pretty high. Theory has been that low turnout (50-60% range) would favor Leave whose voters are usually more passionate/committed on the subject, normal to high turnout (65-75%) would be good for remain, and very high turnout (75-85%) would be good for leave as most people who identify as usually don't vote, favor leave.
Leave Chaotic Neutral for me. Also leave: because fears of market instability will probably improve the worth of the dollar against the pound for the next year until I head back stateside.
I've been paying pretty close attention to it, but i have a weird fascination with british politics. As far as the idea that it will have a "huge impact on america." Nah. Maybe it'll affect Wall Street, but seriously who cares about that unless you're a TMB billionaire. If a Brexit changes anything, the switch to an australian-style points system will make it much easier for Americans to get a UK work visa. It will probably make Britain rely more heavily on the US as an export market. So in that sense i think a brexit is good for ~95% of americans. What , IMO, a brexit would impact the most is the EU itself. Britain's goal from day 1 was to (depending on your perspective) weaken the EU, reform it to be more of a 'trade union' and less of a 'political union', and to generally have it operate in the UK's interests. If they leave I would anticipate the EU becoming more protectionist towards non-EU countries, and also more tightly-integrated politically.
Polls just closed. This seems to confirm the expected (Farage being the UKIP leader) Alex Wickham @WikiGuido 19s19 seconds ago Farage tells sky: "Remain will edge it"
I disagree, I do think immigration is at the center of it. It's not about race, necessarily, it's just about the fact that they can't control who comes and goes.
It's boosted the argument, but that's not the heart of the argument. The heart of the Eurosceptic argument is the sovereignty/democracy issue. The immigration issue is a result of that.
Faisal Islam ✔@faisalislam Breaking: exclusive @skynews/ Yougov poll of 3000 today has Remain at 52: Leave at 48 - NOT an exit poll