I've had some success over the past week with 1st half plays. I was hoping D4H had some insight or was tracking this in one of his systems or spreadsheets. I don't guess he does. I checked through this past Saturday and it appears that all of the DDHF's are hitting the 1st half @ 67%, but are only 33% for the game. Here are the breakdowns by day: 1st half/Game Sat 7-6/4-9 Sun 3-5/3-5 Mon 4-1/1-4 Tue 7-2/6-3 Not gonna call this a system based on 4 days of data, but I will try to track it from now on. CBB has been tough so far this year, if anyone else has noticed any trends or has any input, it will be appreciated.
Today's games that qualify, I've added a P beside the 4 that the public is heavily on the other side of according to SBR, for tracking purposes. George Mason P Harvard Cincy Louisville Memphis Alabama Vandy P Duke P UAB P It may be smart to track for a couple more days, before making plays as there would be 18 plays today, with 9 1H Favs and 9 Dogs for the game. *Edit Missouri St Cal Pacific Col St These also qualify, they must have been added, they weren't on SBR this AM.
Sat 7-6/4-9 16-10 Sun 3-5/3-5 8-8 Mon 4-1/1-4 8-2 Tue 7-2/6-3 10-8 Wed 8-5/6-7 15-11 57-39(60%) 1 of the first half plays covered by 1 while 2 lost by 1 and 1 lost by .5. Very close to 11-3. I'm going to check these out today and see if early lines v late lines makes a difference. Also, of the 4 I noted as early heavy public leans, 2-2/2-2. Gonna follow this some more, because it looks like the first part of the trend may be no play and the second be a play. Any insight will be appreciated.
After reviewing yesterdays plays, the only game the early lines would have helped on would have been Cincy. Today's games that qualify so far. Kent. St. Wofford Morehead St. IUPUI Oakland Kansas Baylor The games the public bet heavily on one side were 4-4, so I'm not going to factor that in. In the original post I listed the trend @ 67% It's actually 60%, which for the amount of plays isn't as attractive, but I'll still follow. Hopefully Vegas will shorten the line on the DDRDs which will shorten the lines on the 1H plays.
I'm gonna play .5U on tonights plays. Baylor line dropped so they're out. Citadel line moved, they're in. 1st Half plays Kent. St -10.5 Wofford -10.5 Citadel -5.5 * IUPUI -13 * Oakland -10.5 Morehead St. -10.5 Kansas -10 The 1st half lines for IUPUI and Oakland aren't available at my sportsbook. These lines are guesstimates, but should be close for tracking purposes. Full Game plays UL Monroe +18 UCLA +17.5 UNC Greensboro +19 GA Southern +10 Tenn Martin +18.5 Centenary +25.5 Southern Utah +19 There are a few of the Full Game plays I don't care for, but I'll see how it goes. Eventually hope to just go all 1st half plays.
1st half tonite, 4-2-1 Game 4-3. For the night, 8-5 for the trend, 8-4 on my plays since my book didn't offer Oak 1st half, thankfully. 1st half continues to be my play of choice. There's something, I'm missing as only 4 of the last 20 have hit both. I'll look into it tomorrow. I don't like to bet 10 to win 12, but it's hard not to play as long as it's hitting. Any advice or insight is appreciated.
There are 3 games today, playing all .5U. 1H plays: Nova -12 Idaho -6.5 Iona -6 I've looked at my notes and decided I'm going to wait until halftime to see what the 2nd half line is and decide whether or not to play instead of playing the whole game. Does anyone know where I can find previous halftime lines? Thanks.
I think I've found something. If anyone has a site that gives previous halftime lines, I'd really appreciate it. Nova -9.5 2nd half 2U.
Sorry for any that tailed. I was trying too hard to pin this down. I really like the big plays and this trend is driving me crazy. I hate betting 5U to win 7U. High risk, low reward is not my style. There is something there as long as the trend holds up. I'll start trying to monitor as many halftime lines as I can since no one knows a reliable site for previous halftime lines. No plays tomorrow, I need a day to re-assess. Sorry again for any that tailed, I thought I was onto something.
1st half/Game Sat 7-6/9-4 Sun 3-5/5-3 Mon 4-1/4-1 Tue 7-2/3-6 Wed 8-5/7-6 Thu 5-3/4-2 Fri 1-2/2-1 Sat 17-11/13-14-1 Sun 2-2/1-3 Finally had time to update. DDHF's are still hitting @ 60%. DDRD's have dropped to 55%. I'll keep track of the DDRDs but not going to consider playing them. I'm playing the 3 plays today for 1U each. All 1H plays. Prov -9.5 Wash -10.5 Iowa St -12.5
Sat 7-6/9-4 Sun 3-5/5-3 Mon 4-1/4-1 Tue 7-2/3-6 Wed 8-5/7-6 Thu 5-3/4-2 Fri 1-2/2-1 Sat 17-11/13-14-1 Sun 2-2/1-3 Mon 2-1/0-3 Tue 2-6/3-2 Ouch Too many plays to take a chance tonight. I'll keep up with it in case anyone's interested, but probably won't update but 1-2 times a week.