CFB Season Win O/U

let me know what you think of some of the Big 12 when you get there.....

 

Stanford at 9 wins is the best win total bet imo. Push at absolute worst.

 

vs ND
@ SoCal
vs Oregon
@ Oregon state (since it is in between SoCal and Oregon)

4 toughest games for Stanford. They should win the other 8 games on their schedule. I don't think they will lose all 4 of those games. Unfortunately my book has them at 8.5 -220, so I won't be playing it unless the line changes. -220 is too much juice for me.

 

Like vtech over 10 also. Not the best value but it's a push at wost as well.

My only future is South Carolina to win the east (homer pick, I know). Has decent value at +150, and I'm pretty confident we'll be back in Atlanta.

 

TAMU, okie St, tech, and Texas thoughts??

 

add Baylor to that as well....thanks.

 

Don't know anything about gambling... what do the plus and minus numbers mean?

 

It's the vigorish on each bet. Normally the vig is -110. For example, you would risk $110 to win $100. You calculate by taking $110/1.10 = $100.

If the vig is -170, you have to risk $170 to win $100 (170/1.70 = 100)

If the vig is a positive number, the payout is more than your risk. Given +120, you win $120 for every $100 risked (100*1.20). Given +200, you win $200 per $100 risked (100*2.00) and so on

In the case of win totals, books use the vig to shade the odds one direction or the other without adjusting the actual over/under number for wins

 

how much you have to bet or can win, based off $100.

IE North Carolina O 7.5 -130 means to win $100, you have to bet $130.
Penn State O 8 +120 means if you bet $100, you win $120.

 

Ah, ok. Thanks

 

Why would anybody ever bet minus numbers?

 

Because you like the bet. It is Vegas' way of hedging. If they are getting a lot of action on one side, they will make the minus number bigger, making it more of a risk.

 

Nvm, I am stupid. I get it now.

 

I would stay away from that. They very well may be very good this year, but they lost what IMO was the best coach in all of CFB. Not sure how you can lose the best coach in the game and not suffer a drop-off.

 

I took Auburn Over 6 Wins -125. $200/$160 Homer play or whatever but I say we are 3-1 going into SC. Very possibly 4-0. I think Clemson is tremendously overrated. If Auburn has a QB problem, I don't know what to call a Tahj Boyd. Miss State is a toss up at this point. I think worst case we split those 2.

Then we got an auto-W on Samford. so that's a minimum of 4 wins. Ole miss @ Auburn we will be favored by double-digits. They are gonna be a shitshow this year. = 5 wins.

I'm betting on AT LEAST a push on this bet due to the fact that I think we can win at least one of: SC, ARK, LSU, UF, UGA, UA.

Call it homer. Or call it a Lock. Either way, feel free to use it to get some free money.

Only other one was Tennessee Over 7 Wins +115. $62/$72. see that one like:

Montana W
Cincy W
UF Toss. no clue how UF offense is gonna be
Buff W
UGA Toss. b/c it's in Knoxville and UGA will struggle to score this year IMO
LSU Toss. If not for 15 men on field, they beat LSU @ LSU last year.
Bama L
USC Toss. just because it's an SEC Home game.
MTST W
ARK Toss. Probably an L b/c it's in Fayetteville but a lot can happen between now and then + no Kniles
Vandy W
UK W

All they have to do is win 1 tossup to push. 2 for a win. I like the chances of that happening. Towards the end of the year last year, Dooley had them moving in the right direction

 

I think that's a big gamble on AU. AU has to win every game they "should" win and has to win one they "shouldn't" win. That's asking a lot.



Sept. 3, 2011 Utah State WIN
Sept. 10, 2011 Miss. State (SECN) Toss Up, but MSU will be favored
Sept. 17, 2011 at Clemson Toss Up
Sept. 24, 2011 Florida Atlantic WIN
Oct. 1, 2011 at South Carolina LOSS
Oct. 8, 2011 at Arkansas LOSS
Oct. 15, 2011 Florida Toss up
Oct. 22, 2011 at LSU LOSS
Oct. 29, 2011 Ole Miss Toss Up
Nov. 12, 2011 at Georgia Toss Up
Nov. 19, 2011 Samford WIN
Nov. 26, 2011 Alabama LOSS (but ya never know)

I see 3 lock wins and then a 5 toss up games. AU has to win 4 of those 5 to cash. I think at best you're looking at a push.

 

Nah, but in reality UF and Miss St are not toss-ups either. Both should be favored over Aubie

 

DBL is that a no-homer prediction? I fully expect a 7 win regular season for Auburn. It's actually the first future bet I've ever placed in CFB. a 6-6 season would be a disappointment. OleMiss we will be favored by double digits. We've done well against UF in recent history and our weakness on defense is going to be the interior of our defense stopping the run. Florida has no way to expose that with the players they have. Pair that with us being at home, I think we that line will be between +/-3. I like home conference teams.

With the shit show going on in LSU and Kniles getting knocked out for the year those games are looking a little more win-able. Arkansas will come down to who has the ball last IMO. LSU will struggle to score this year. I honestly thing we can put up 21-24 on them. Either way, I'll take a push on any bet and worst case I see 6 wins on that schedule.

MSU early line a few weeks ago was favored by 3. I think since then it has gone down on futures lines to -2. basically a pick.

 

You should know from my posting history that I'm not a huge AU hater. I'm not PDL or anything. Even if you give AU the Ole Miss game, that's 4 wins. In order to win the bet, AU has to win 3 of MSU, Clemson, UF, and UGA. I just don't see AU winning 3 of the 4.

Also, what happened in years past with different staffs (AU/UF) doesn't mean a thing today. Arky without Kniles and LSu without Jefferson are still much better teams than AU, too. Doesn't mean that AU can't sneak up and beat one of them, but the same can be said that AU could slip up and lose to an Ole Miss.

Overall, I think AU will be in the 5-7 win category. All things would have to fall close to perfect to get to 7 wins, though. There's not much wiggle room when you look at the schedule and there's 5 losses on the schedule to start with.

 

Forgot we play LSU, Arky and Bama. Since Gus has gotten to Auburn, he's shown we can score on anybody. Like 2009, this season rests mainly on our defense. Our offense is much more dangerous than the '09 offense

 

Eh, not sure I agree with that. Your QB play will be atrocious. I don't think Trotter will put a 22/6 TD/INT ratio without Adams like Todd did. I think AU will score some points bc Gus is good and you guys have good RB's, but I just don't see enough to win more than 6-7 games with that schedule.

And I didn't forget that AU plays those 3, but those 3 are as much of a LOSS as any WIN is on your schedule. If you're going to chalk Clemson and Ole Miss up as wins, then all 3 of those have to be chalked up as losses. Sure, AU could sneak up and win one, but AU could also lose to Ole Miss.

I just think you're being an extreme homer on this one. Betting a future when best case scenario is 1 game over a push is just foolish.

 

I haven't seen any O/U Win totals that I thought were off by more than 1 game in a best case scenario to be honest... Vegas ain't no fool

 

never done the season O/U before, but i want to put a homer bet on auburn as well.

A. are you still able to do this by website and if so,
B. what do you recommend tlank?

 

I'm not even sure which websites still A)take US clients and B)pay out in a timely fashion

with some good googling skills you can probably come across a message board that has 1st hand knowledge of answers to these two questions. I use a local that has a little website setup like an online book but meets up to pay/collect in person

I'd be very surprised if there isn't a person that operates this same way in Auburn. Get on the horn and check around I bet you can find one by the end of the day. Off the top of my head I'd say ask brett/graham/inslen

 

Bama's best case scenario is 12-0. I'm not betting it, but betting over 10 isn't a stretch bc you have some wiggle room. I think they'll go 11-1 which gives you wiggle room for an unexpected loss and still push. Those are the type spots to bet a future, where you feel worst case scenario is a push. I just don't think AU's worst case scenairo is 6 wins.

 

ah well we agree to disagree. I can't see us going 5-7. not saying it's impossible, because anything is possible. but if someone gave me 5-1 odds, I wouldn't bet it regardless of them being my chosen team

 

Only counts regular season wins. So if you think it is impossible that Bama loses 2 games this year, then yes it is a no brainer... color me skeptical with them having the same QB issues as Auburn paired with losing their go-to receiver that was pretty much a guaranteed 5 yard outlet at any given time.

also not gonna entertain speculation on how good McCarron and Sims are based on zero on-field performance. So save the comments there.

 

other than vandy, ole miss and probably tennessee, bama is capable of losing the other SEC games. if TR gets hurt, which he has before... I would chalk that bet up as a loss. If it was 10 and not 10.5 I would say it is a solid bet that you'd probably push worst case. hook is kinda scary on that one

 

UNC over 7.5

That's the first and only season O/U I've ever bet.

 

For the Auburn over, say goodbye to that sweet, delicious money

 

No MJRuff that is just what we needed.........

 

I like the UT over and the OSU under (they have some rough road games). I think LSU is going under too. This is about the time that they realize Les is a fraud and quit on him.

 

Good to go back and read some rational gamblers pre-season thoughts on teams' seasons.

Barring something silly this weekend I'll cash my AU OV6 wins

Injuries killed Tennessee OV7 though.

Barring an Ironbowl calamity Bama OV10.5/10 was a good call

As were Zona UN6.5 and Stanford OV9

Some good gambling minds on TMB

 

OP gonna lose money on UGA and FSU.

 

Yes there were definitely some bad calls mixed in with the good ones