CFB Week 4

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by TLAU, Sep 18, 2017.

  1. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Leans:

    MSU +7.5 at UGA - don't think MSU has a let down game. not Mullen's first time winning a big game and having to get his guys up for the next one. I think it's low scoring - I was big on UGA D vs. ND getting them the W then. I still think they could win I just see it being a defensive game and neither one pulling away.

    UF -145 at UK - honestly just betting on the more talented team winning the game. If Stephen Johnson shows he can ball vs. a talented Defense and Kentucky's D can put the clamps on the UF running game (I know it was vs. the VoLOLs but they had 3 guys average 4+ YPC) then I'll take my L and probably change my entire view on the rest of UK's season. FWIW I would still be taking UF had they lost on Saturday.

    Auburn -18.5 at Mizzou - we looked like shit vs. Mercer. Not reading too much into that honestly just because I don't think we'll turn the ball over a half dozen times every game or call the same 3 running plays the entire game vs. real opponents. Mizzou is a bad football team. Auburn should be able to dominate this game on the ground. 205 172 and 139 rush yards allowed on D - all well above the other performances by each team. See this game being a lot like the Auburn-Arkansas 2016 game

    Vandy +18.5 vs Bama - It's tough to type that pick and not have some doubts... I think bama wins but Vandy isn't a complete pushover anymore and playing D. Their D kept them in 1 score games vs. USCe, UF, AU last year and beat UGA, OMiss and UT. Bama's offense hasn't been impressive with Hurts since he's taken over. Their ridiculous defense won the games last year and so far this year. See this one as a 14-3 / 17-7 type game that Bama wins.

    Arky - A&M Over - if the number comes out around 50-55 (haven't seen one yet). Two horrible run defenses and two offenses that have success when they can get a ground game going = points.
     
  2. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Purdue (they are a good team and a live dog at home)

    Cal (fading USC getting too many points on the road after a huge home OT win against Texas)

    UGA (this is a terrible spot for Miss State coming off a monster home win against LSU with UGA basically having two weeks to prep after a cupcake last week. Public will be on the road dog).

    I like Vandy as well but I've faired so poorly betting against Bama lol.
     
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  3. TLAU

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    I'm curious to see if your comment about the public being on MSU will come to fruition as that could keep me from betting on them. I don't think it will happen because of public perception on two things:

    MSU is MSU and hasn't ever really gotten a ton of respect by the general public that watches CFB
    UGA beat ND in their house and the public IMO still sees ND as a good program regardless of how bad they are

    also as for actual x's and o's - do you think UGA's offense is better than LSU's?
     
  4. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    I'm riding Okie Lite and the over until it burns me
     
  5. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    that UGA line will come back down. i'll wait until it gets to 6 and take UGA.

    az state +14.5 at home against oregon. yes pls.
     
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  6. allothersnsused

    allothersnsused Wow that’s crazy
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    If you do want to bet on Vandy, let that line go ahead and grow through the week. Public loves Bama and will probably undervalue Vandy.
     
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  7. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    Agreed. I bet that number gets close to 21 by Saturday.
     
  8. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    Games I like this week:

    Iowa +13
    NCSt +13
    LSU -24
    TCU +11
    Oklahoma -28

    Games I'm considering:

    UGA -5
    Bama -19
     
  9. Ndirish123

    Ndirish123 Active Member

    Clay Travis' picks on Outkick the coverage.

    I’m not gonna lie, last week was not ideal — we went 6-8 against the number, dropping our yearly record down to 22-15, right at 60% for the year. That’s still good, but it’s time to rebound and kick some ass this week, with a a absolutely perfect 12-0 performance.

    As always, don’t be a pussy and sign up for Outkick VIP right now. If you are betting these picks without being a VIP then you have cost yourself at least three wins already based on getting lines that have gotten worse than the lines when I post them on Sunday afternoon on Outkick. So you’ve already cost yourself more than the $99 you would have paid for a yearly membership by being cheap.

    So stop being cheap asses and go sign up for Outkick VIP today, you get a free tshirt and access to our Outkick VIP events all over the country — we have one one in Nashville in two weeks — and you get to make money off gambling picks and hang out on our VIP message boards.

    Plus, you can even pick Outkick’s First Amendment and Boobs tshirt as your free tshirt selection. That shirt is guaranteed to get you laid at the bar this weekend. Bonus, we have new first amendment and boobs tshirts designed to make fun of CNN’s logo.

    So go do it, today.

    Before we get started I want to point something else out to you — every line but one has moved in our favor. That is, if you had bet the numbers when these games came out, you would have a better number than the market in every bet except for Michigan-Purdue, where the line has moved against us.

    The first place to put up college football lines every week is BetOnline. You can find all those lines here. The moment those lines go up I am picking the ones I like the best and immediately posting them on the Outkick VIP message board. Sometimes the lines move against me, but the vast majority of the time so far I’m on the right side of the line movement. (Even I’m not cocky enough to believe that Outkick is shifting the lines by what I’m telling you to do. Although that would be awesome to be able to do some day in the future.)

    The other thing worth noting here is that many of these lines moves are past significant numbers. For instance, look at Kentucky-Florida below. Sure, the line from Kentucky +4 to Kentucky +2.5 might look insignificant to a layman, but a more seasoned gambler knows that all points aren’t created equal. The move from +4 to +2.5 is MASSIVE as it pertains to your chances to win a bet. Now you might still win or lose at both numbers, but there’s a decent chance this game ends on a field goal. You’d win under the bet I gave out on Sunday and lose under the current line.

    Sure, you can wait on making your bets, but you’re actually costing yourself money by doing so.

    So, don’t be a pussy, sign up for Outkick VIP like thousands of your Outkick compatriots have already done.

    Okay, here we go with the picks. We’re going 12-0, bitches!

    Florida at Kentucky +4, and the under 44.5 (Now Kentucky +2.5 and 44)

    It’s happening!

    The Kentucky Wildcats are going to beat the Florida Gators for the first time in thirty years! Yep, the Bluegrass state is going to be partying like it’s 1986, baby!

    The Gators are not good.

    At all.

    And this game is going to be ugly and low scoring because Kentucky has a stout run defense and Feleipe Franks can’t throw the ball at all. (Unless Butch Jones is setting up the defenses for the final play of the game.)

    So go ahead and get a double win here on Kentucky and the under.

    Penn State at Iowa +13.5 (Now Iowa +12)

    Remember last year when Michigan rolled into Iowa and the Wolverine season collapsed?

    Well, I don’t think Penn State’s going to lose this game, but I do think they will get a scare and end up winning by 10 or less. That’s what frequently happens in conference road games, you get challenged even when you don’t anticipate a challenge.

    Iowa is 3-0, but you don’t know that unless you’re an Iowa fan. The Hawkeyes are the play here.

    Mississippi State +6 at Georgia (now Mississippi State +5)

    I’m kicking myself because last week I violated one of my cardinal rules, never take a coach who is infinitely worse than another coach to cover more than a touchdown spread on the road.

    And I got bamboozled into believing that Ed Orgeron wasn’t what I thought he was.

    And then Dan Mullen went out and crushed LSU’s hopes and dreams.

    Well, I’m not making that mistake this week. Dan Mullen is the second best coach in the SEC right now and we still don’t know exactly what to make of Kirby Smart.

    But we do know that Mullen’s got the best quarterback in the SEC in Nick Fitzgerald. So we’ve got a better coach, a better quarterback and I’m getting six points?

    Give me State and the points on the road in Athens.

    Michigan at Purdue +8 (Now Purdue +10)

    Jeff Brohm is the best coach in college football most of you haven’t heard of. He nearly pulled off the huge upset over Bobby Petrino in week one and last week he took his team on the road and bombed Missouri.

    This week Purdue is back home and I just think Michigan is overrated and Purde is still underrated.

    In every game of the Wolverines I’ve watched this season I haven’t been that impressed.

    I know, I know, Michigan’s undefeated and the line has moved against me here — it’s the only game where the lines have moved against me — but that only makes me like Purdue more. If you like a game, trust your instinct, put more on it if the line moves against you.

    The Boilermakers give Michigan a real scare and end up losing by a touchdown or less.

    West Virginia -20 at Kansas (Now West Virginia -22.5)

    Kansas gave up 45 to Central Michigan and 42 to Ohio.

    And now West Virginia, which is averaging over 46 points a game, is coming to town and I will absolutely guarantee you that West Virginia is scoring 50 in this game.

    And there’s no way Kansas is scoring thirty.

    When I pull my abacus out and slide the pegs that means, hold on a sec…West Virginia by twenty or more!

    This game is going to be a such a blood bath it’s going to be wait for it, OUR BLOOD BANK GUARANTEE BOYS AND GIRLS.

    Run down to the blood bank right now and roll up your sleeve and have them start taking the platelets out of your arm and immediately put that money on my boy Dana Holgersen’s team to cover.

    Get rich, kids.

    Auburn at Missouri +18.5 (Now Mizzou +18.5)

    I don’t think Auburn’s offense should be favored by 18.5 over air right now, guys.

    Now, I get it, some of you Mizzou fans are like, “Our defense is pretty much air, Clay,” but I have faith that Mizzou isn’t as bad as they have looked on defense so far this year. And I also have faith that their offense will actually score a touchdown this week.

    So I know it seems counterintuitive right now, but trust me on this one, take Mizzou and the points.

    Old Dominion at Virginia Tech -25 (Now Virginia Tech -28.5)

    Virginia Tech is an offensive machine under Justin Fuente right now.

    Last week Virginia Tech scored 64 points against East Carolina.

    Meanwhile last week Old Dominion gave up 53 to UNC.

    I’m not a math expert, but that doesn’t seem to bode well for Old Dominion slowing down Virginia Tech’s offensive attack.

    Take the Fighting Fuente’s big over ODU.

    Alabama at Vanderbilt +19, the under 44.5 (Now Vandy +18.5, 43)

    You ever make a bet and then ask yourself something like, “Wait, did I really take Derek Mason and Vanderbilt against Nick Saban and Alabama?”

    This is when you need the courage of your convictions.

    I have watched both these teams play all three of their games. And I’m telling you, Vandy is not three touchdowns worse than Alabama this year. I mean, sure, they’ll probably still lose by double digits, but I think the Commodores can keep this game close into the fourth quarter if they just play normally.

    Seriously, Vandy doesn’t need to do anything extraordinary, they just need to play the same balanced offensive and defensive games they have played so far and they will keep this a low scoring game where they cover with ease.

    You know all the public money is going to come pouring in on Bama and the over, but I really like Vandy and the under here. And I think the smart money — i.e. not the Bama fan money — will come in on our side on Saturday.

    Oklahoma -27 at Baylor (Now Oklahoma -28)

    Baylor is 0-3 and has the misfortune of having beaten Oklahoma two of the last four years. That means there are Oklahoma players on this roster who remember losing to Baylor.

    That ain’t good for Baylor.

    Because Oklahoma is going to open up a can of holy hell whoop ass on them and win by 30 or more.

    Hell, this football beating’s going to be so bad Baylor might even report it to the Waco police.

    Texas A&M-Arkansas, the under 56.5 (Now 54.5)

    What happens when two coaches are on the hot seat, the two teams are evenly matched, and their teams are playing against each other?

    Frequently neither coach wants to make a big mistake.

    So the game is conservatively called.

    That’s exactly what I think happens here.

    In a losing coach goes home contest, I think one team wins 24-21 over the other. I lean towards A&M being the victor, but I like the under much more than playing either side.



    There you have it boys and girls, we’re going 12-0 this week.

    Get rich.
     
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  10. TLAU

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    Like UNC moneyline and think the wrong team may be favored. they hung tight with UL for a while and Cal is better than they get credit for. Duke's only real win is vs NWestern who I think was really overrated preseason
     
  11. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    Mississippi State +7
    Wake Forest -4
    Wake Forest/App State over 48
    Oklahoma -27.5
    Auburn/Missouri under 60
    Went with TLAU and took the UF ML (-151) as well
     
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  12. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Juan you get on MSU early? That line is down to 4.5 at 5D
     
  13. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    My first Monday morning bet of the year. :badasswolf:
     
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  14. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    I like that Mizzou u60. Was looking at that today. If that goes over, Auburn is in sure fire trouble unless it's an absolute offensive explosion from Stidham and Co. Also like Oklahoma.
     
    Juan likes this.
  15. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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  16. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    What are your thoughts process on UGA? As I see it today, give me Mullen and Co. and the 7 points all day until proven otherwise. I have been high on them since the end of last year. They are well coached, motivated, and obviously talented enough.

    By the way Wake Forest is pretty damn good this year. I randomly follow them because our babysitter's son is on scholly there. IMO they are still not getting enough respect on point spreads. Them and Mississippi State are the two teams I am going to ride out until the spreads are adjusted more appropriately. I was the same way with Ok State until this week.
     
  17. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    A few things. First, UGA basically gets an extra week to prepare for this game. It's at home. They have a very good defense. Seeing State beat up in LSU probably takes away any chance State had of sneaking up on UGA and forces UGA to be more focused. I think they will be very prepared to play. And I think there will be (and it seems we're already seeing) a lot of the public buying into State's last performance and possibly overvaluing them.

    If you wait long enough, you could get a pretty good middle opportunity.

    Agree on OK St. I think they were pretty undervalued the last couple of weeks, but that line seems pretty good this week. Plus this will be the best defense OKSt has seen this year.
     
  18. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    uga wins this game by double digits.
     
  19. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    I also like Baylor this weekend. :bunnywithapancakeonitshead:
     
  20. TLAU

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    Too busy in the Westworld Filmroom

    GuyOnA_Buffalo
     
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  21. Ndirish123

    Ndirish123 Active Member

    God bless.
     
  22. Ndirish123

    Ndirish123 Active Member

    ESPN Chalk Best Bets


    Phil Steele: 5-3 in Week 3 (8-15 season)
    "Stanford Steve" Coughlin: 2-3 in Week 3 (8-5-1 season)
    Chris Fallica: 3-4 in Week 3 (11-12 season)


    Common games


    No. 16 TCU Horned Frogs at No. 6 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-13.5)

    Steele: TCU is 34-10 on the road over the past nine years, but Oklahoma State has been one of the most impressive teams in the country led by Mason Rudolph and James Washington. Their highlights are constantly being shown, making the public like them even more. TCU has one of the best secondaries in the nation, holding foes under 50 percent passing. The Frogs have also held each of their foes to their respective season lows in yards and are winning by an average margin of 49-14. Before the season started, I had these teams within a few points of each other, and I still do. This game will be decided on the last possession, so I'm taking the double-digit 'dog.


    ATS pick: TCU
    Score: Oklahoma State 38, TCU 35




    Coughlin: How does Oklahoma State make scoring points so easy -- and will it continue? Oklahoma State plays at a relentless pace and has been so successful that their star quarterback, Mason Rudolph, has played in only eight of the 12 quarters the team has played so far this season. I think that offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich will be a head coach next year, with the attention this Pokes offense is getting and will continue to get through this season, thanks to them averaging over 54 points. On the other side, you have Gary Patterson prepping his team, and you can be sure he has brought up last year's embarrassing 31-6 loss at home. I wouldn't take too many other coaches in college football to coach TCU in this game. The Horned Frogs' defense played great in a road game at Arkansas earlier this year, giving up only seven points. I think the road team keeps it close and covers.

    ATS pick: TCU
    Score: Oklahoma State 38, TCU 31


    Fallica: This series has been one of blowouts and unders. The past five meetings were decided by at least 14 points with the average margin of victory of 22.8 points. Only one of the five meetings had more than 51 points scored. I'm curious to see how the line moves. This number was 11.5 on Tuesday, and I guessed it would go up and has now, given how the Cowboys have blown out everyone. That move might give some value to TCU, but I'll steer clear of the side and go with the history of this game and call for a lower-scoring game than most would think.

    Pick: Under 71 points
    Score: Oklahoma State 38, TCU 28




    No. 17 Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 11 Georgia Bulldogs (-5)

    Steele: Mississippi State has lost nine straight in Athens, with its last win coming in 1956, but Georgia does have SEC East rival Tennessee on deck. Mississippi State has been impressive and has an average game grade of 108.8, the fifth best in the country, after its 465-270 yard edge against LSU. It is outgaining foes by 287 yards per game this year. My computer is calling for Mississippi State to win outright. It has a great shot at the upset here, and I like their quarterback edge with Nick Fitzgerald over true freshman Jake Fromm. Mississippi State is 9-3 as an away 'dog in the past five years and has to be thinking it can break the long losing streak this year. I won't call for the streak to end, but I will call for Mississippi State to keep this game closer than expected.

    ATS pick: Mississippi State
    Score: Georgia 24, Mississippi State 23


    Coughlin: After a huge win last week at home versus LSU, the stakes get even bigger as the Bulldogs travel to Athens. Dan Mullen's Bulldogs come in leading the SEC in scoring defense (9.3 points per game) and have outscored opponents 143-28. Still, I like the spot that Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs are in here, as all the talk this week will be about their opponent. The Georgia defense is giving up 14.3 points per game and an average of just 71 yards on the ground. No team has rushed for more than 100 yards against Georgia through three games. I see this being the story of the game, with both defenses playing well. I don't expect a crazy offensive game plan from Georgia, as it will rely on its defense and home field to be a major factor. I see the winner of this game scoring in the 20s. I like the under.

    Pick: Under 48.5 points
    Score: Georgia 24, Mississippi State 19


    Fallica: I liked Mississippi State last week against LSU and noted Dan Mullen's success as a touchdown underdog, but I worry the State bandwagon might be too full this week. I don't think Nick Fitzgerald and Aeris Williams will have as easy of a time running as they did last week. Now, I do think Mississippi State's defense is legit, so I don't know how many points Georgia will put up given the inexperience of quarterback Jake Fromm, but if I had to make a pick on this game, I think it is going to be one of those games that the public sides with the underdog, and then Georgia wins by seven after being close throughout.

    ATS pick: Georgia
    Score: Georgia 24, Mississippi State 17




    No. 20 Florida Gators (-2) at Kentucky Wildcats

    Steele: There are three things that are certain in life: death, taxes and Florida beating Kentucky. The nation's longest active winning streak of one opponent over another is now at 30 in a row. The Wildcats have been outscored 125-13 in the first quarter alone the past eight meetings. Feleipe Franks gained a lot of confidence last week and showed off his powerful arm with that 63-yard toss, hitting his receiver in stride for the winning touchdown. Florida has faced Michigan and Tennessee, and is taking a step down in level of competition, while Kentucky is playing its toughest foe of the year to date, and is giving up 64.2 percent completions. The Wildcats are just 3-11-2 as a home 'dog.

    ATS pick: Florida
    Score: Florida 27, Kentucky 20


    Fallica: In two of the past three years, people thought the streak was about to be broken. I wasn't one of them. But this year, I think the time has come. The Gators have injuries and suspensions to deal with, and their offense just isn't very good right now. Florida's defense will keep it in the game, but I think Kentucky's defense will also do a good job keeping the Gators out of the end zone. After the emotion of last week, will Florida wear down late if it is again a close, physical game? I'll take the Cats at home to snap the 30-game losing streak.

    ATS pick: Kentucky
    Score: Kentucky 23, Florida 20




    UCF Knights at Maryland Terrapins (-3.5)

    Steele: Maryland has a rare extra game under its belt edge this early in the season due to UCF having to cancel/postpone its past two games due to the effects of Hurricane Irma. The Knights haven't played in 21 days. Maryland lost starting quarterback Tyrrell Pigrome in its season-opening win at Texas. True freshman Kasim Hill led two fourth-quarter touchdown drives, and that win looks even better now with the way Texas has responded in the past two weeks. I had Hill rated at the No. 26 quarterback coming out of high school and thought he would contend for the starting job this year, anyway. DJ Durkin has his Maryland squad playing with confidence, and UCF is just 5-16 in road openers. I'll call for the Terrapins to win by over a touchdown.

    ATS pick: Maryland
    Score: Maryland 44, UCF 35


    Coughlin: This is one of my favorite games of the weekend because I absolutely love both of these offensive coordinators: Maryland's Walt Bell and UCF's Troy Walters. These great young minds have serious talent on their side of the ball and are putting up sky-high numbers. While we've only seen one game of the Knights' offense, you could easily see the improvement of quarterback McKenzie Milton, as he threw for 360 yards and four touchdowns. I don't expect him to be rusty. The Terps come in averaging 315 yards per game rushing the football. I expect the scoreboard will be lit up like a Christmas tree. Take the over.

    Pick: Over 59.5 points
    Score: Maryland 45, UCF 42


    Friday games


    No. 23 Utah Utes (-3.5) at Arizona Wildcats

    Fallica: It pretty much bottomed out last year for Rich Rodriguez at Arizona, as the Cats were 2-10 against the number and weren't very competitive after taking eventual conference champion Washington to overtime in the Pac-12 opener. The seemingly annual Rodriguez upset win never came. Arizona lost at home to Houston a couple of weeks back, but at least the defense played well. This had been a series that Arizona had controlled before last year, winning four straight -- three coming in as a 'dog -- but last year, Arizona couldn't hold a halftime lead, and Utah went on to win by 13 points. We've seen Utah play one road game this year, and it was a struggle with a mediocre BYU team. Our numbers have Arizona favored by about six in the game, so we'll take the points and look for the Wildcats to put forth their best effort of the year.

    ATS pick: Arizona
    Score: Arizona 31, Utah 27


    Saturday games


    Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-4.5) at Appalachian State Mountaineers

    Steele: Though the schools are just 92 miles apart and have met 22 times, this is their first matchup since 2001. Wake Forest went 4-1 in nonconference games last year and made a bowl game, so this might mean more to it than next week's Florida State game. The Deacons are just the second Power 5 team to travel to Boone, and Appalachian State was fired up last year when it hosted Miami -- but still lost 45-10. I have been extremely impressed with Wake Forest this year, as it played better than my expectations in each game, and its average game grade is 92.7 (No. 34). Appalachian State has played below my expectations in each game and was outgained 385-283 by Texas State, which ended the game at the Appalachian State 1-yard line down seven last week. I expect a good amount of Wake Forest fans on hand and for it to grab the road win.

    ATS pick: Wake Forest
    Score: Wake Forest 28, Appalachian State 17




    Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks (-8.5)

    Steele: This is the only non-SEC game in a six-week span for South Carolina. Last week, Central Michigan was off an upset road win and traveling again, and Syracuse was off an upset home loss and at home again. Syracuse was laying 9.5 points and won, 41-17. I bring that up because this game has a similar feel, with Louisiana Tech off a huge Conference USA road win over Western Kentucky, while South Carolina is off a home upset loss to Kentucky. South Carolina has played my No. 10 toughest schedule, and Louisiana Tech has played just my No. 81 toughest. Louisiana Tech quarterback J'Mar Smith is completing just 51.5 percent of his passes. I like the value on South Carolina.

    ATS pick: South Carolina
    Score: South Carolina 37, Louisiana Tech 20




    Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-11)

    Steele: This is the first away game for Rutgers, and the Scarlet Knights dropped their past two road openers by 30 points per game. Rutgers has had 12 Big Ten road games and lost nine of those by 18 or more points. Nebraska had a two-to-one yardage edge last week in the first half but trailed 14-0 due to a pair of interception return touchdowns. The loss was to an improved Northern Illinois team that will make a bowl. Rutgers won 65-0 over a Morgan State team that also was shut out in its first two games against FCS foes. Rutgers is averaging just 13.5 points against FBS foes, and Nebraska is averaging 32 points, and after two straight losses, the Huskers are in must-win mode. Bob Diaco's defense made big strides last week, holding Northern Illinois to just 213 yards. I like the angry Huskers to win big in a game that they have to take seriously.

    ATS pick: Nebraska
    Score: Nebraska 35, Rutgers 13





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    UT San Antonio Roadrunners (-12.5) at Texas State Bobcats

    Steele: UTSA was in a bowl last year and is a legit contender to win Conference USA this year. It has already beaten a Power 5 team in Baylor on the road and is giving up only 212 yards per game. Texas State exhorted a ton of energy in its emotional loss last week, finishing one yard short of scoring a touchdown in a seven-point loss. With the schools so close, I expect a good amount of UTSA fans to make the less than one-hour trek. UTSA quarterback Dalton Sturm is completing a remarkable 81 percent of his passes, and the Bobcats are allowing 62.2 percent completions.

    ATS pick: UT San Antonio
    Score: UT San Antonio 28, Texas State 7




    No. 22 San Diego State Aztecs (-3) at Air Force Falcons

    Steele: Rocky Long is vastly experienced at defending the option going back to his days as the New Mexico head coach. He has won all five games in this series while coaching San Diego State. Air Force enters off a physical loss at Michigan. There was no luck involved in San Diego State's two wins over Power 5 foes Arizona State and Stanford. The Aztecs outgained both and even had an impressive 21-9 first-down edge against the Cardinal. San Diego State is holding its opponents to 183 yards per game below their season averages. On offense, Rashaad Penny has run for 588 yards with an impressive 8.3 average, and Christian Chapman is completing 68 percent of his throws. The Aztecs could be in line for a New Years Six Bowl bid if they run the table.

    ATS pick: San Diego State
    Score: San Diego State 28, Air Force 17




    West Virginia Mountaineers (-22.5) at Kansas Jayhawks

    Fallica: One would have to be a complete fool to back Kansas on the heels of being blown out by Central Michigan and Ohio. Well, I've been called worse. Last year, KU was a double-digit home 'dog four times -- three times as at least a 20-point 'dog -- and the Jayhawks went 3-0-1 against the number and pulled the outright upset win over Texas. West Virginia could be peeking ahead just a bit to an upcoming game with TCU, as well. I'll take the better-than-three-touchdown line in this spot, expecting a much better effort from the Jayhawks.

    ATS pick: Kansas
    Score: West Virginia 38, Kansas 24




    Alabama Crimson Tide (-18.5) at Vanderbilt Commodores

    Fallica: It is apparent that Vanderbilt is improved, but beating Middle Tennessee, Alabama A&M and Kansas State is one thing, while hanging with the top dog in the conference is another. And it's not as if Vandy is just sneaking up on Bama. The Tide will be on full alert with the national attention of Vandy's 3-0 start and hearing how Vandy has the top defense statistically in the country. After a couple of sluggish efforts against Group of 5 schools, expect Alabama to come out and methodically control this one, reminding all that it is still the king of the SEC. You might even get a bit more of a discounted number, as I think there will be money coming in on the Commodores.

    ATS pick: Alabama
    Score: Alabama 34, Vanderbilt 10




    Ohio Bobcats at Eastern Michigan Eagles (-2)

    Fallica: Ohio righted the ship last week against Kansas and now heads to Ypsilanti with revenge on its mind after being upset at home last year by EMU. FPI has the Bobcats rated as a slight favorite in this game, so I'm willing to take a shot with our numbers.

    ATS pick: Ohio
    Score: Ohio 27, Eastern Michigan 23




    NC State Wolfpack at Florida State Seminoles (-12.5)

    Coughlin: This is such a tricky spot for Jimbo Fisher and the Seminoles: a noon game at home, and they haven't been able to get a snap for new starting quarterback James Blackman because they haven't had a game to play since losing De'Andre Francois in the season-opening loss to Alabama. There is plenty to like about the NC State defense, starting with defensive lineman Bradley Chubb, who is the brother of Georgia star running back Nick Chubb. The feeling here is that the Wolfpack defense can cause enough disruption to the Noles' offense, and the NC State offense, led by quarterback Ryan Finley (six touchdowns through the air and no interceptions), can score enough to pull the upset. We'll take the points but also call for the upset.

    ATS pick: NC State, over 52 points
    Score: NC State 23, Florida State 17




    Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech Hokies (-28.5)


    Coughlin: Last week, the Hokies were trailing East Carolina 17-7 and rallied back to score 57 unanswered points, beating the Pirates, 64-17. I love what I'm seeing from quarterback Josh Jackson, who is fresh off a 372-yard, five-touchdown performance, and I don't think there is a possibility that the Hokies could be looking ahead to Clemson next week because I trust head coach Justin Fuente. The Monarchs have a bunch of injuries and don't have the depth to maintain success at the Division I level yet, and it showed up last week when they were dominated by North Carolina 53-23. I like the over, and honestly, Virginia Tech might cover it itself.

    ATS pick: Virginia Tech, over 52 points
    Score: Virginia Tech 50, Old Dominion 13
     
  23. allothersnsused

    allothersnsused Wow that’s crazy
    Donor
    Virginia CavaliersAtlanta BravesAtlanta HawksChelsea

    Leans:

    LaTech @ SCar -8.5
    Wake Forest -6
    @ App State
    TCU +14 @ OkSt, U71
    Penn St. -12.5 @ Iowa
    Purdue + 10 vs. Michigan

    Probably won't touch any of the dogs until Saturday morning and hope the line grows a bit. Lines may be a bit outdated, I try not to hop on the book at work.
     
  24. Ndirish123

    Ndirish123 Active Member

    Have anything else this week?
     
  25. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    probably app state. seeing if it goes up

    Bet ok st o 71
     
  26. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
    Donor
    Real MadridJacksonville JaguarsFlorida GatorsTampa Bay Rays

    Anyone know of any good sites with analysis other than shit like espn chalk?
     
  27. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    Wendel Clark turned me on to www.cappingthegame.com and some of the regulars there have some solid write ups from time to time.
     
    letan likes this.
  28. wolfpck

    wolfpck haters gonna hate
    Donor
    North Carolina State Wolfpack

    UNC +2.5 vs Duke
    TCU +13.5 @ Ok State
    Georgia -4.5 vs Miss State
    BC +34.5 @ Clemson
    Kentucky +2 vs Florida
    Alabama -18.5 @ Vanderbilt
    LSU -21 vs Syracuse
     
    The Hebrew Husker likes this.
  29. Phi Mus Love Boones Farm

    Phi Mus Love Boones Farm Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Auburn TigersNew Orleans Saints

    The latech USC and UCLA Stanford lines seem fishy as fuck to me
     
  30. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
    Donor
    Real MadridJacksonville JaguarsFlorida GatorsTampa Bay Rays

  31. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    W USF/Temple Under 63
    Mississippi State +7 (got it Monday)
    WF -4 (same as Miss State)
    WF/App State over 48
    Oklahoma -27.5
    Auburn/Missouri Under 60
    Cal +17
    Alabama -18.5
    Florida ML -151
    South Carolina -9
    Ga Tech -9

    Leans
    TCU +14
    NC State +13



    Week 1: 4-2-1
    Week 2: 3-4
    Week 3: 4-3

    YTD 11-9-1
     
    #31 Juan, Sep 22, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2017
    Ndirish123 likes this.
  32. Ndirish123

    Ndirish123 Active Member

    Week 1: 6-4
    Week 2: 2-5
    Week 3 3-5
    YTD: 11-14

    Penn St at Iowa +12.5
    UVA +11.5 at Boise St
    Toledo +13.5 at Miami
    WVU -21 at Kan
    Sd St -3.5 at AF
    Oregon at AZ St +15.5
    USC at Cal +16.5
    Wake at App St +4.5
    UCLA at Stanford -7.5
    UTSA -13.5 at TX St
    FAU +2.5 at Buffalo
     
  33. colonelrascals

    colonelrascals Mayonnaise-colored Benz, I push miracle whips
    Donor
    Texas Tech Red RaidersHouston AstrosHouston RocketsTennisTottenham HotspurTexas Tech Red Raiders alt

    Week1 - 11-2
    Week2 - 1-5
    Week3 - 7-4
    YTD- 19-11

    ARMY @ TUL -3
    LA TECH @ SC -9.5
    BAMA -19
    @ VANDY
    TCU @ OKST OVER 71.5
    BALL ST. @ WKU -7.5
    MISS ST @ UGA -5.5
    CUSE @ LSU -21


    ...just realized I took an all chalk week. Pretty disappointed in that.
     
  34. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    Alabama
    Ohio
    UGA
    OU
    WVU
    UK
    SYR
    ARK ST
    Arkansas
     
  35. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    Adding ND -3, WVU -21, Purdue +10.5
     
    #35 Juan, Sep 22, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2017
  36. UKupNorth

    UKupNorth Well-Known Member

    UGA -4.5
    ND -3
    PSU -7 1H
    Alabama -10 1H
     
  37. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Have held off on the why-not parlays so far. Got enough throw away money to start doing 1 $10 multigamer on Saturday and one Sunday. Hitting 1 the entire year would make it worth it since the payouts are normally $500-1000. If I lose $20 a week the rest of the year on these I'm not too worried about it

    1. 9/23/2017 3:30 PM College Football 312 North Carolina* +105 vs Duke
    2. 9/23/2017 4:00 PM College Football 313 Michigan* -365 vs Purdue
    3. 9/23/2017 7:30 PM College Football 317 Penn State* -470 vs Iowa
    4. 9/23/2017 12:00 PM College Football 321 NC State* +13 -110 vs Florida State
    5. 9/23/2017 7:00 PM College Football 323 Mississippi State* +7½ -190 vs Georgia
    6. 9/23/2017 7:30 PM College Football 373 Auburn/Missouri* Under 60½ -120
    7. 9/23/2017 3:30 PM College Football 379 Alabama/Vanderbilt* Under 44½ -140
    8. 9/23/2017 3:30 PM College Football 383 TCU/Oklahoma State* Over 70½ -120
    Risking $10.00 To Win $521.78
     
    FadeMe likes this.
  38. hawkeyeOUTeast

    hawkeyeOUTeast Love it or leave it!
    Donor
    Iowa HawkeyesChicago CubsCarolina PanthersKansas City ChiefsCarolina HurricanesPGABig Ten Conference

    Chalk
     
    Rasheed Wallace likes this.
  39. longhornfan

    longhornfan Well-Known Member

    Anyone got any thoughts or insights on tonight's game? Need a big win tonight for some play money tomorrow.
     
  40. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
    Donor
    Tiger Woods

    I love throwing a hail Mary occasionally
     
  41. The_QCT

    The_QCT Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Clemson TigersCleveland BrownsChelseaInternazionaleCleveland IndiansUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamCharlotte FC

    YTD 8-7

    Wake Forest -3
    Louisville -37
    Virginia Tech -24.5
    Bama -19
    ASU +17
     
  42. *DIESEL*

    *DIESEL* Half man, half amazing
    Donor
    Florida State SeminolesChicago CubsChicago BearsMiami Heat2pac

  43. kslim

    kslim Guest

    Did two parlays

    Pitt gt under 54
    Nc state +11
    Wvu/KU under 71
    Tech/him over 68
    Army+3



    Purdue +11
    Iowa +12 (teased up 1/2 point)
    NCstate +11.5
    Souf cack -9
    Tech straight up
     
  44. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    Arky ml free winner
     
    Juan likes this.
  45. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    Houston
    App st
    And Baylor
     
    The Hebrew Husker likes this.
  46. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    That high of a % on Auburn and line dropped to 17. Hello RLM

    Vandy TT Under 12
    Mizzou TT Under 21.5
     
    Juan likes this.
  47. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Also may give Hawaii late game a look because of those %s
     
  48. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    And because degenerate
     
  49. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    Added Duke at a pick and Missouri TT Under 21.5