CFB Week 9

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by Juan, Oct 23, 2017.

  1. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    First Glance, liking some Big10 and Sunbelt...


    App State -4
    South Alabama -2
    Ohio State -6 (will probably take this closer closer to game time if the trend continues, i'm so glad Penn State blew out Michigan like they did)
    Missou -11
    UNC +21
    WVU +8
    ND- 7
    Minnesota +8
    Sparty -1

    YTD 50-29-3
     
    #1 Juan, Oct 23, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2017
  2. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    if I bet on the PSU-OSU game it's gonna be the PSU moneyline. No way I could lay a TD with the Buckeyes until they prove they can play well vs a team with a good veteran QB. That loss to OU is looking worse every week :twocents: and they've played 5 cupcakes since then.

    Only concern would be them having an extra week to prep for this game. But they had the same type situation vs. OU and that extra time didn't really help.

    Do like ND, OkSt and probably will end up gettin on UGA -14
     
  3. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    At first glance, Georgia stood out as my favorite play
     
  4. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    A TD is a lot but it seems like it is trending to be at -4 by game time. At least to a bookie friend of mine. Anyways the public money is going to come in big on Penn State all week for several (all valid) reasons. I think OSU can blow out several teams but I do question how they will be able to blow out a true quality opponent. This isn't my favorite line, but if the line keeps dropping I am going to take it 4, MAYBE 5. My main reason, OSU's DL versus Penn State's OL. Penn State' one weak spot is at OL and Ohio State is solid af across the defensive front. I think OSU is awake and getting better each and will not be sleep walking or taking this game lightly, like the probably did against OSU. Anyways 2 points is a lot to drop so we shall see.
     
  5. TLAU

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  6. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    TLAU
    One other thing I just read was that while PSU has the number 1 scoring defense they haven't played an offense in the top 75. I didn't believe it so I looked it up and the best offense they have played, Iowa #81 (tied with UVA). I never fully rely on stats but at the season goes I trust them a little more. Week 9 has a solid sample pool.
     
  7. TLAU

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    yeaaaa but at the same time what stats are making anyone confident in OSU considering the only team that isn't legitimate trash they have played completely dominated them for most of the game?
     
  8. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    it's only a component of it why I am considering betting on OSU. I just thought it was nuts that Penn State has played some really shitty offensive units. OSU's competition has better but nothing too crazy.


    The best offensive unit OSU has played was obviously OU which they lost 31-16 in week 2.

    Week 1 - Indiana #88 (49-21)
    Week 3 - Army #48 (38-7)
    Week 4 - UNLV #52 (54-21)
    Week 5 - Rutgers #101 (56-0)
    Week 6 - Maryland #62 (62-14)
    Week 7 - Nebraska #85 (56-14)
    Week 8 - BYE

    We all know OSU has the talent and a solid coach, however OSU's D hasn't been exactly tested either (less OU who they lost to early). OSU as a TD favorite and I would probably end up laying off, but with the OSU talent and coaching, them getting better each week, a recent bye week to prep, the game being played at home, and the line potentially dropping to closer to 4 I like the OSU odds better to cover versus PSU's.
     
  9. TLAU

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    I probably won't play anything at all because of the other games on at that time too unless I throw a real small action bet on the PSU ML
    I just think OSU is gonna be the gambling message boards flavor of the week. not speaking about this thread like the main gambling boards out there

    purely anecdotal and may not turn out that way but I've already seen a game thread discussing it on Madjacks and the majority think OSU is easy money. Games like that scare me
     
  10. Long Ball Larry

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    Ohio State -6.5
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    ohio st is going to roll.
     
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  12. devine

    devine hi, I am user devine
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    Pitt -3 at home looks good. Uva is really bad
     
  13. TLAU

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    not saying they won't just that I haven't seen a good argument for it other than them having a bye and now Juan OLvsDL matchup.

    Like I said if I bet it will be purely a small action bet on PSU ML. I think they have mismatches with PSU's WRs vs. OSU DBs and Barkley out of the backfield vs. LBs

    What are everyone's thoughts on the UGA-UF game?

    Might only have one big bet this weekend and that be it (aside from homerun parlay)

    ND ml / OKST ml / UGA ml - pays out +110
     
  14. Long Ball Larry

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    Maybe my biggest play of the year after Bama covering 7 on FSU.
    OSU going to crush PSU.
     
  15. wolfpck

    wolfpck haters gonna hate
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    North Carolina State Wolfpack

    Arkansas +3 @ Ole Miss
    Northwestern +2.5 vs Michigan State
    Ohio State -6 vs Penn State
    Tulane +11 @ Memphis
    Pittsburgh -3 vs UVA
    Houston +11 @ USF
    Missouri -13 @ Uconn
    NC State vs ND under 59.5 (LOCK)
     
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  16. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    So far tonight and the weekend, some of these I got on early in the week.

    South Alabama pick
    App State -3
    Ohio State -6
    Missouri -13
    aTm ML
    UNC +21 (bought half)
    WVU +8
    Sparty -1 (bought half)
    Baylor +10 (bought half)
     
  17. longhornfan

    longhornfan Well-Known Member

    So MSU vs A&M line kind of strange. On vegasinsider the line went from A&M -1.5 to MSU -1.5 and 75% of the money is on A&M. Anyone want to comment on that?
     
  18. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    75% of the $ or the ticket count? Sounds like reverse line movement is occurring.
     
  19. longhornfan

    longhornfan Well-Known Member

     

    Attached Files:

  20. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    uconn pass D is legit. i think they beat mizzou.
     
  21. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    you do know that Uconn is literally the worst pass defense in NCAA football right? 129/129
     
  22. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    uconn passing defense ranks 29th in the nation on passing downs (passing IsoPPP)...who looks at "passing defense" as a stat anymore?
     
  23. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    It is definitely a relevant measureable when the only respectable team UConn has played is Memphis. Maybe SMU, but they haven't really been as good as I thought they would be this year. Neither UConn nor Missouri are good teams but Missouri is definitely explosive on offense and UConn will not be able to keep up offensively or defensively IMO. This is not overlook spot for Missouri. Missouri also has one of the higher offensive IsoPPP rankings. I think top 20 iirc.
     
  24. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    mizzou ranks first in explosive plays on offense but almost last in preventing them. uconn ranks 20th in isoppp in passing downs.
     
  25. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
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    I'm going with

    Georgia -14
    KSU -24
    Houston/USF Over 56.5

    Feel free to shit on my picks.
     
  26. J.R. Bob Dobbs

    J.R. Bob Dobbs Fan of: Firing Coaches, Cutting Players

    BC to cover is the easiest pick since louisville to cover last week. FSU is absolutely terrible.
     
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  27. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    BC and the under. Playing both and parlaying
     
  28. SoCalDuck

    SoCalDuck sleep late, its much easier on your constitution
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    Like
    TCU -6.5 (bought the hook)
    OSU -6.5 ""
    Fresno St. -20.5 ""
     
  29. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    the more i look at this game, i don't really see any situational angles in uconn's favor. seems to me line is about right. GL.
     
  30. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    fuck it, i'm in.
     
  31. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    I am not in love with the play, but what sold me on that side was the quality opponent Missouri has played over UConn. The SEC is definitely down but the AAC is an awful conference this year. I feel like Missouri is the better bad team that has better athletes. Mizzou has also played much better the past two weeks. Look at their loses, Mizzou has loses to Auburn, UGA, South Carolina, Purdue, and Kentucky. UConn has loses UVA, East Carolina, SMU, and Memphis. It's not completely crazy to count them out as finishing 6-6. They're currently 2-5 with games against UConn, Florida, Tennessee, Vandy, and Arkansas. Now I doubt that scenario plays out but it I would not be surprised at all to see them beat any of those teams. Especially considering some those teams HC scenarios. They still appear to have not given up and they still technically have something to play for. BOL to you as well.
     
  32. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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  33. kslim

    kslim Guest

    tonights games
    College Football 112 Boston College +5 +110* vs Florida State
    College Football 113 Tulane/Memphis Over 63 -110*
    College Football 114 Memphis -9 -155* vs Tulane
    College Football 116 SMU -7 -150* vs Tulsa
     
  34. bRamonceTaylor

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    Also the red bandana game. I'm in too.
     
  35. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    Added

    Notre Dame -7
    Notre Dame/NC State Under 58
    South Carolina -6 (bought hook)
    FAU -6
    Arizona State +3.5
     
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  36. kslim

    kslim Guest

    love wvu outright but yeah ugh is a lock
     
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  37. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    I don’t like that bc line is just sitting at 6.5
     
  38. kslim

    kslim Guest

    did you tease it
     
  39. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    Bought a half
     
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  40. kslim

    kslim Guest

    smart
     
  41. J.R. Bob Dobbs

    J.R. Bob Dobbs Fan of: Firing Coaches, Cutting Players

    :roll:
     
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  42. kslim

    kslim Guest

    i think you are okay
     
  43. SoCalDuck

    SoCalDuck sleep late, its much easier on your constitution
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    Ha!

    Took it at +4.5 earlier this week and then doubled down on the ML.
     
  44. devine

    devine hi, I am user devine
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    Baylor +10
    Pitt -1.5
    Miami -20.5
     
  45. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    alright everyone post your stone cold locks of the day not Ohio st

    Oklahoma st -7
     
  46. devine

    devine hi, I am user devine
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    Rutgers +22
     
  47. devine

    devine hi, I am user devine
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    Miami +21
     
  48. kslim

    kslim Guest

    georgia
    wvu
    ksu
    a&m
    miami
    went wake on a whim
    texas
     
  49. J.R. Bob Dobbs

    J.R. Bob Dobbs Fan of: Firing Coaches, Cutting Players

    I really don't think osu is that big of a lock
     
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  50. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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