CHAMPS XVIII

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Stone Cold Steve Austin, Jul 6, 2022.

  1. stric006

    stric006 Recovering Butter Beer addict
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    Explain the August first thing to me
     
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  2. southlick

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  3. southlick

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    Has like a 2.05 era
     
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  4. Brandon Chicken

    Brandon Chicken Chow Time
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    Hugh’s golf course closes for a month of maintenance.
     
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  5. southlick

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  6. southlick

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    Bored waiting on soccer to start


     
  7. southlick

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  8. southlick

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  9. HtownTide

    HtownTide Well-Known Member
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    That game at South Carolina is gonna be a doozy for sure
     
  10. Hawks11

    Hawks11 The arsonist has oddly shaped feet
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    Anyone know what happened with the director of Yea Alabama? He apparently got fired last week.
     
  11. Stone Cold Steve Austin

    Stone Cold Steve Austin Tickler Extraordinaire
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    Aaron suttles?
     
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  12. Hawks11

    Hawks11 The arsonist has oddly shaped feet
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    Nah, not Aaron. Jay McPhillips.
     
  13. The Blackfish

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    What a tease
     
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  14. wellsy

    wellsy Well-Known Member

    IMG_2073.jpeg
    anybody else gonna go watch this movie?
     
  15. Sammy Meatballs

    Sammy Meatballs Keep Calm and Keel On
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  16. DDB

    DDB Putting a cat in an oven, don’t make it a biscuit
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    Originally thought it was just a joke
     
  17. SummerOfGeorge

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    Waiting for the Broadway musical version
     
  18. southlick

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  19. southlick

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  20. wellsy

    wellsy Well-Known Member

    Yeah that happens when you have a baseball coach other schools actually want
     
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  21. southlick

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  22. southlick

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  23. southlick

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  24. Capstone 88

    Capstone 88 Going hard in the paint
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    No wonder he was gambling, he was barely getting by
     
  25. Snakes

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    i am so god damn ready for the fall
     
  26. southlick

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  27. i am a bammer

    i am a bammer Ben Eblen>Jamychal Green
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    No Ty, Keelon starting confirmed
     
  28. (Z)

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    Well yeah, one is a successful head coach. The other was the pitching coach at Auburn. Byrne should hang his head in shame regularly for that pathetic hire.
     
  29. RJF-GUMP

    RJF-GUMP Daubert Qualified in Cooler Thermodynamics
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    So we're expected to take like 21 or 22 total players? So 2 or 3 more. Man, after that run we've been on, only getting a few more sounds depressing. Also , with USC, Georgia, A&M, and Notre Dame already having 24-31 recruits, I don't see how we end up ahead of them in the rankings. It does look like we have the highest average recruit ranking on some of the services. But I don't see us finishing with a top 2 class. Top 3 seems like it is going to be tough. Probably end up around 4 or 5. Gurus am I wrong on this ?
     
  30. Troy Barnes

    Troy Barnes Constable to Inspector Spacetime
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    Eh, I don't really a shit about a recruiting NC or where we fall in the final rankings. As long as he's pulling high level guys like he is right now, I'm not too worried about volume
     
  31. i am a bammer

    i am a bammer Ben Eblen>Jamychal Green
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    It's honestly impossible to evaluate without knowing what they plan to do in the portal and how many resources are set aside for that. I want recruiting banners too but no one can say this isn't an elite class. They flipped a few guys like Derek Meadows in the fall last year so who knows what things look like by signing day.
     
  32. RJF-GUMP

    RJF-GUMP Daubert Qualified in Cooler Thermodynamics
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    Agree completely. I just remember at least one person in here talking about having the #1 class and it's just not going to happen numerically. This is an elite class regardless of where it ends up in the rankings.
     
    #140433 RJF-GUMP, Jul 8, 2025
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2025
  33. stric006

    stric006 Recovering Butter Beer addict
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  34. RJF-GUMP

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    We are going to be absolutely loaded with talent on offense. Pretty much every position. Defense isn't going to bad either. We are roster building like a mofo right now. I think we're actually upgrading offensively from where we were last few years of Saban. The receiver talent is already much better especially if you count the guys coming in in this class. We may be downgrading a bit on defense but even that is debateable. We're doing surprisingly well with corners and safeties. That was obviously Saban's wheelhouse but I don't think we've dropped off there much at all. Still would like to see some monsters on the DL. Last year was a relatively weak DL class. This year we have some studs with Nolan Wilson , Jamarion Matthews, and JJ Finch . From listening to Tim Watts and Andrew Bone, JJ Finch is an absolute monster and looks very much like a top 100 player. They need to stack more DL talent moving forward.
     
  35. i am a bammer

    i am a bammer Ben Eblen>Jamychal Green
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    I want to laugh but no one should be going to jail for that
     
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  36. SummerOfGeorge

    SummerOfGeorge Friend of the Program
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    Take a seat friends, it's time to get ready for the TYphoon.



    The Patient Protégé: A Historical Analysis and 2025 Projection for Alabama QB Ty Simpson

    Executive Summary

    This report provides an exhaustive analysis of the historical precedent for quarterbacks matching the unique career trajectory of Alabama's Ty Simpson, who is projected to take over as the starter in 2025. The specific archetype under examination is a former 5-star recruit at a major college football program who becomes the primary starter in his fourth year on campus after three seasons of limited playing experience, yet is supported by a proven, high-powered offensive system and a roster laden with returning talent.

    The research identifies an extremely small cohort of comparable players from the last 20 years, a testament to the rarity of this developmental path in the era of the transfer portal. The primary analogue is Mark Sanchez (USC, 2008), whose situation and subsequent success provide a "gold standard" benchmark. The analysis is supplemented by case studies of transfer variants who fit the developmental timeline, including Max Browne (Pittsburgh, 2017), Blake Barnett (USF, 2018), and Hunter Johnson (Northwestern, 2019), whose varied outcomes underscore the critical importance of coaching and offensive infrastructure. Additionally, the performance of Jake Haener (Fresno State, 2020) under coach Kalen DeBoer offers a direct, system-specific data point that is crucial for forecasting.

    The central finding of this report is that for this specific quarterback archetype, success is almost entirely dictated by the quality of the surrounding ecosystem. Quarterbacks in favorable situations (elite coaching, strong supporting cast, stable system) have thrived, while those in less-than-ideal environments have struggled, regardless of their initial recruiting pedigree.

    Based on this historical analysis, the report concludes with a detailed statistical projection for Ty Simpson's 2025 season. The forecast, which uses a weighted average of the most relevant historical comparables, predicts a highly efficient and productive campaign. The projection anticipates Simpson throwing for approximately 4,100 yards and 35 touchdowns, a performance level that would place him among the nation's elite passers, establish him as a high-round NFL Draft prospect, and position the Alabama Crimson Tide as a premier contender for the SEC Championship and the College Football Playoff.



    Section 1: The 2025 Alabama Nexus - Opportunity Meets Expectation

    The 2025 season in Tuscaloosa represents a fascinating convergence of talent, system, and expectation, all centered on the quarterback position. After a transitional 2024 season under a new coaching regime, the Alabama Crimson Tide is poised for a return to offensive dominance, but the linchpin is a signal-caller with immense potential yet minimal on-field production. Ty Simpson steps into a situation that is, by nearly every objective measure, a near-perfect incubator for a first-year starting quarterback. The combination of his own elite pedigree, the installation of a famously quarterback-friendly offensive scheme, and an arsenal of top-tier talent creates an environment where the floor for success is remarkably high, and the ceiling is a national championship.


    1.1 The Heir Apparent: Profiling Ty Simpson


    Ty Simpson's journey to the starting role at Alabama is a throwback to a bygone era of quarterback development. As a member of the 2022 recruiting class, he was a consensus 5-star prospect, ranked as the No. 2 quarterback by On3 and the No. 4 quarterback by 247Sports. He was a prized recruit out of Martin, Tennessee, choosing the Crimson Tide over national powers like Clemson and SEC rivals Ole Miss and Tennessee. This pedigree establishes the foundational, elite-level talent that coaches covet.

    Instead of seeking an immediate starting job elsewhere, Simpson embraced a developmental arc, spending three full seasons (2022-2024) as a backup. This path was publicly praised by former head coach Nick Saban, who called Simpson's journey a "true example of development," noting that he "matured for two years, and now he's getting an opportunity". This patience is a stark contrast to the modern landscape, where highly-touted quarterbacks often enter the transfer portal if a starting role isn't secured by their second or third year.

    This developmental period has rendered Simpson a relative unknown to the national media and fanbase. His career statistics are exceptionally modest for a fourth-year player, consisting of just 50 total pass attempts across 16 mop-up appearances. This lack of on-field production is the primary driver behind low external expectations for Alabama's quarterback room, with publications like Phil Steele's magazine ranking the unit as low as No. 36 nationally.

    However, a significant dichotomy exists between this external perception and the reviews from those within the elite football community. At the prestigious Manning Passing Academy, Simpson reportedly showcased "first-round" arm talent, with his arm being described as "as impressive as any QB there," a group that included other top prospects like Arch Manning and Garrett Nussmeier. Perhaps most tellingly, Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik, a fellow 5-star from Simpson's 2022 class, unprompted, included Simpson in his list of the "best quarterbacks in college football" alongside established stars. This suggests that while the game reps are missing, the raw talent is not.

    Adding another layer of intrigue and pressure is the arrival of 5-star freshman Keelon Russell. Russell is one of the most decorated recruits in the 2025 class, having won the Elite 11 MVP award and been named the Gatorade National Player of the Year. This creates an internal dynamic reminiscent of 2020, when incumbent Mac Jones had to fend off 5-star freshman Bryce Young. Simpson will not only be battling opposing defenses but will also be constantly measured against the high-potential freshman waiting in the wings, ensuring his performance is under a microscope from the very first snap.



    1.2 The DeBoer/Grubb Effect: A System Built for Quarterbacks

    The single most significant factor in Simpson's favor is the arrival of head coach Kalen DeBoer and the return of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. This coaching duo brings a system that is not just proven, but is arguably the most effective in college football at elevating quarterback play, particularly for first-year starters within their scheme. The 2024 Alabama offense, built to accommodate the unique running talents of Jalen Milroe, was often described as clunky and frustrating, a square peg in the round hole of DeBoer's philosophy. In 2025, the offense will be fully unleashed in the coaches' image.

    The DeBoer/Grubb system is predicated on accuracy, rhythm, and putting playmakers in space. It utilizes quick-hitters and condensed formations to create favorable matchups and simplify reads for the quarterback. Simpson, a more natural pocket passer with lauded arm talent, is considered a far better schematic fit for this "point guard" role than his predecessor was.

    The historical evidence of this system's impact is overwhelming:
    • Michael Penix Jr. (Washington, 2022): After an injury-plagued career at Indiana, Penix transferred to Washington to reunite with DeBoer, his former offensive coordinator. In his first and only season in the system, Penix exploded, leading the entire nation with 4,641 passing yards and throwing for 31 touchdowns, earning AP Comeback Player of the Year honors. This demonstrates the system's capacity for immediate and dramatic transformation of a quarterback's career.

    • Jake Haener (Fresno State, 2020): Haener, a transfer from Washington, took over as the starter for DeBoer's first season as head coach at Fresno State. In a COVID-19-shortened six-game season, Haener threw for 2,021 yards and 14 touchdowns. His per-game average projected to over 4,300 yards and 30 touchdowns across a full 13-game season, reinforcing the system's plug-and-play nature even without an elite supporting cast.
    This track record establishes DeBoer and Grubb as "kingmakers" at the quarterback position. They have repeatedly taken quarterbacks—whether transfers or developing players—and turned them into statistically prolific, nationally recognized stars in their very first year at the helm.


    1.3 An Arsenal for Success: Alabama's Returning Talent

    A great system requires great players to execute it, and Ty Simpson will be surrounded by one of the most talented rosters in the nation. Alabama returns 14 total starters (six on offense, eight on defense), tied for fifth-most in the Power Four conferences and positioning the team as a consensus top-three program in the SEC. This level of support provides a safety net and a multitude of weapons that few, if any, first-year starting quarterbacks ever get to enjoy.
    • Offensive Line: The foundation of any great offense, Alabama's line is expected to be a dominant force. It is anchored by left tackle Kadyn Proctor, a monstrous 6-foot-7, 360-pound talent who is already projected as a potential top-five pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. He is joined by returning starters Parker Brailsford at center and Jaeden Roberts at guard, both of whom were key contributors in 2024. This unit is widely regarded as one of the best in the country and will be tasked with providing Simpson ample time to operate DeBoer's complex passing schemes.

    • Receiving Corps: The collection of pass-catchers is arguably the best in the SEC and a consensus top-five group nationally. The room is headlined by sophomore phenom Ryan Williams, who burst onto the scene as a true freshman with 48 catches for 865 yards and eight touchdowns. He is complemented by the reliable and productive senior Germie Bernard (46 catches for 714 yards in 2024) and Isaiah Horton, a high-impact transfer from Miami whom NFL scouts already view as a potential Day 2 draft pick. With this trio, plus a healthy Jalen Hale, Simpson will have a diverse and explosive set of targets capable of winning at all three levels of the field.

    • Running Back Room: A strong running game is a quarterback's best friend, and Alabama's is deep and talented. The Tide returns its leading rusher from 2024, Jam Miller (668 yards, seven touchdowns), and features a stable of other highly-recruited backs like Richard Young and Daniel Hill. This potent ground attack will force defenses to respect the run, creating favorable play-action opportunities for Simpson.

    • Elite Defense: Compounding the offensive advantages is a defense that projects to be one of the very best in the nation. Publications and preseason models have ranked Alabama's 2025 defense as high as No. 1 or No. 2 nationally. A dominant defense shortens the field for the offense, creates turnovers, and prevents the team from falling into high-pressure shootouts, further easing the burden on a new starting quarterback.
    The confluence of these factors—a talented quarterback, a proven system, and an elite supporting cast on both sides of the ball—creates an environment with virtually no built-in excuses. It is a level of support that few of the historical comparables enjoyed, which simultaneously provides the perfect incubator for success while magnifying the pressure on Simpson as the single biggest variable for a team with legitimate National Championship aspirations.


    Section 2: In Search of Precedent - Identifying the Fourth-Year 5-Star Archetype

    To project Ty Simpson's 2025 season with any degree of accuracy, it is essential to look to the past. The central challenge is that his specific career arc—a highly-touted prospect patiently waiting three years at a single powerhouse program for his turn—is exceptionally rare. This section will meticulously define the criteria for comparison, discuss the modern factors that make this path an anomaly, and identify the small, select cohort of quarterbacks from the last two decades who provide the most relevant historical context.

    2.1 Establishing the Criteria

    The analytical framework for this study is built upon a precise set of five criteria, derived directly from Ty Simpson's situation heading into the 2025 season:
    1. Five-Star Recruit: The player must have been a consensus 5-star prospect as defined by a major recruiting service such as 247Sports or Rivals. This establishes an elite talent baseline.
    2. Major Program: The player must have been on the roster of a major Power Five conference program, typically a perennial national contender, ensuring a similar level of institutional pressure and expectation.
    3. Delayed Starter: The player could not have been the team's primary, season-opening starter until at least their fourth year of college eligibility (typically a redshirt junior). This captures the essence of a long developmental wait.
    4. Strong Supporting Cast: The player must have stepped into a situation with a high level of returning talent, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.
    5. Proven Offensive System: The player must have operated within an established, high-functioning offensive scheme led by a respected coordinator or head coach.
    2.2 The Rarity of the Profile in the Portal Era

    In the landscape of modern college football, this archetype is nearly extinct. The advent of the one-time transfer exception and the normalization of player movement have fundamentally altered the career paths of elite quarterbacks. A 5-star prospect who does not win the starting job by their second or third season is now overwhelmingly likely to enter the transfer portal to seek immediate playing time elsewhere. The days of a top recruit patiently holding a clipboard for three years, learning the system, and waiting their turn are largely a relic of the pre-portal era.

    This reality makes finding direct, one-to-one comparisons for Ty Simpson exceedingly difficult. His decision to remain at Alabama through two coaching changes and behind two different starting quarterbacks (Bryce Young, Jalen Milroe) is an anomaly. Consequently, the historical data set is small, which elevates the importance and analytical weight of each individual case study. It also necessitates a slightly broader definition of the cohort to include "transfer variants"—players who, through transferring and sitting out a season, still followed a similar four-year developmental timeline before their first true starting opportunity.

    2.3 The Historical Cohort: Defining the Comparables

    After a thorough review of 5-star quarterback recruits from the 2005 through 2022 classes, the following players have been identified as the most relevant comparables for this analysis. They are grouped by the nature of their path to the starting job.
    • The Primary Analogue: Mark Sanchez (USC, 2008) Sanchez represents the cleanest and most direct historical precedent. He was a 5-star recruit in the 2005 class who signed with USC, a national powerhouse. He redshirted in 2005, then served as the backup to starter John David Booty for two seasons (2006, 2007), before finally winning the starting job in 2008—his fourth year on campus. His situation almost perfectly mirrors Simpson's.
    • The System-Specific Analogue: Jake Haener (Fresno State, 2020) While only a 3-star recruit, Jake Haener's situation is critically relevant and warrants inclusion. He began his career at Washington, transferred to Fresno State when Kalen DeBoer was hired as head coach, sat out the 2019 season per NCAA transfer rules, and won the starting job in 2020—his fourth year of college eligibility. Haener provides the single best data point for how a quarterback with this exact developmental timeline performs in this exact offensive system. His performance offers a "system baseline" that can be adjusted for the talent differential between himself and Simpson, and between 2020 Fresno State and 2025 Alabama, making the final projection far more robust.
    • The Cautionary Tale: Hunter Johnson (Northwestern, 2019) A 5-star from the 2017 class, Johnson transferred from Clemson after one season, sat out 2018 due to transfer rules, and won the starting job at Northwestern in 2019, his third year of eligibility. While his timeline is slightly accelerated, his experience as a highly-touted prospect who struggled mightily in a dysfunctional offensive environment provides a crucial counterweight to the more successful examples, highlighting the potential pitfalls.
    Section 3: A Deep Dive into the Case Studies

    To understand the potential outcomes for Ty Simpson, a granular examination of each historical comparable is required. This section provides an in-depth analysis of the five quarterbacks identified in the cohort, focusing on the specific context of their first starting season, their statistical performance, and the ultimate outcome for both the player and their team.

    3.1 Case Study: Mark Sanchez, USC (2008) - The Gold Standard

    Mark Sanchez's 2008 season at the University of Southern California stands as the quintessential example of what is possible for a patient, 5-star protégé. His situation is the most analogous to Simpson's, and his performance set a benchmark for success.
    • The Situation: USC entered the 2008 season as a national championship favorite, ranked No. 1 in the coaches' poll and No. 3 in the AP poll. The program was at the zenith of its power under head coach Pete Carroll. After three years of waiting, Sanchez was named the starter over Arkansas transfer Mitch Mustain, another former top recruit. The offense was coordinated by a rising star in Steve Sarkisian, who praised Sanchez's mental and physical preparation. While the offensive line was replacing key starters, it was restocked with elite talent, including future first-round NFL draft picks Matt Kalil and Tyron Smith. The skill positions were loaded, featuring a stable of future NFL running backs in Stafon Johnson, Joe McKnight, and C.J. Gable. The true strength of the team, however, was a legendary defense anchored by future NFL All-Pros Rey Maualuga, Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews, and Taylor Mays. This unit was historically dominant, providing an immense safety net for a first-year starting quarterback. The environment was, in short, perfectly engineered for success.

    • The Performance: Sanchez delivered a spectacular season, validating the years of development. He earned First-Team All-Pac-10 honors and led the conference in passing efficiency. In 13 games, he completed 241 of 366 passes (65.8%) for 3,207 yards, with an exceptional 34 touchdowns against just 10 interceptions. His passer rating of 164.6 was elite. He demonstrated command of Sarkisian's offense, distributing the ball effectively and showing poise in big moments, such as a dominant 35-3 victory over No. 5 Ohio State in which he threw four touchdowns. The USC offense was a juggernaut, averaging 37.5 points and 454.7 total yards per game.

    • The Outcome: USC finished the season with a 12-1 record, their only loss coming in a shocking upset at Oregon State. They capped the year with a dominant 38-24 victory over Penn State in the Rose Bowl and finished ranked No. 3 in the final AP Poll. Following his stellar season, Sanchez made the controversial decision to declare for the NFL Draft, against the public advice of Coach Carroll, who believed he could have benefited from another year of college experience. The decision was validated when the New York Jets selected him with the No. 5 overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft.
    3.4 Case Study: Jake Haener, Fresno State (2020) - The DeBoer Prototype

    Jake Haener's 2020 season is perhaps the most predictive single data point for Ty Simpson, despite Haener's 3-star recruiting background. He is the only quarterback in this cohort who spent his first year as a starter in the exact offensive system that Simpson will command in 2025.
    • The Situation: Haener began his career at Washington before transferring to Fresno State to play for newly hired head coach Kalen DeBoer. After sitting out the 2019 season due to NCAA transfer rules, he won a tight preseason battle to become the starter for the 2020 season, his fourth year of college eligibility. He inherited a team that was rebuilding from a 4-8 record the previous year. The supporting cast was solid for the Mountain West Conference but not spectacular, featuring productive running back Ronnie Rivers and receiver Jalen Cropper, but it was not comparable to the talent level at a program like Alabama.
    • The Performance: In a season shortened to just six games by the COVID-19 pandemic, Haener was statistically prolific and immediately showcased the explosive potential of DeBoer's offense. He completed 150 of 232 passes (64.7%) for 2,021 yards, 14 touchdowns, and five interceptions. His average of 336.8 passing yards per game was among the best in the nation. He displayed remarkable command of the offense for a first-time starter, including a 422-yard, four-touchdown performance against Utah State.
    • The Outcome: Fresno State finished the abbreviated season with a 3-3 record. More importantly, Haener established himself as a legitimate star and a future NFL prospect. He followed up his debut by throwing for over 4,000 yards in 2021 under DeBoer's offensive staff and was eventually selected in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft by the New Orleans Saints. Haener's immediate success provides the most direct evidence of the DeBoer/Grubb system's ability to take a fourth-year, first-time starter and rapidly develop him into a highly productive, professional-caliber quarterback.
    Section 4: The Synthesis - Statistical Benchmarks and Averages

    By aggregating the performance data from the individual case studies, we can establish a quantitative baseline for what a typical season looks like for a quarterback fitting this rare archetype. This synthesis allows for a direct comparison of outcomes and an analysis of the factors that correlate most strongly with success, which is essential for building an accurate projection for Ty Simpson.

    The table below presents the full-season statistics for the four most relevant comparables in their first year as a primary starter. Hunter Johnson's 2019 season is excluded from the primary quantitative analysis due to his abbreviated developmental timeline (third-year starter) and the extreme dysfunction of his offensive environment, which renders his statistics a significant outlier. Max Browne's stats are prorated to a full 13-game season, as his year was cut short by injury after six games.

    4.1 The Archetype's Average Season (13-Game Pace)

    A simple, raw average of the four players above would be misleading. The vast differences in their situations—from a national title contender (USC) to a rebuilding Power Five team (Pitt) to a Group of Five program (USF)—would skew the results. A more intellectually honest approach is to create a weighted average that more closely reflects the high-end situation Ty Simpson is inheriting.

    Therefore, we will calculate a "Prime Situation Average" using only Mark Sanchez (2008) and Jake Haener (2020). These two quarterbacks operated in the most effective and well-coached offensive systems, supported by the best relative talent, making their performance a much more accurate and predictive baseline for Simpson, who is stepping into an A+ environment at Alabama.

    "Prime Situation" Average Season (Sanchez & Haener, 13-Game Pace):
    • Completions: 283
    • Attempts: 435
    • Completion Percentage: 65.3%
    • Passing Yards: 3,793
    • Passing Touchdowns: 32
    • Interceptions: 11
    • Rushing Attempts: 88
    • Rushing Yards: 28
    • Rushing Touchdowns: 5
    This statistical profile paints a clear picture: a fourth-year, first-time starter in a high-level system can be expected to perform as an upper-echelon college quarterback, capable of producing nearly 3,800 passing yards and over 30 touchdowns.

    4.2 Analysis of Causal Factors: Success vs. Struggle

    The data reveals that for this archetype, raw talent is a prerequisite, but the environment is the determinant of success.
    • Coaching and System: The most significant variable is the quality of the offensive coaching. Sanchez thrived under the tutelage of Steve Sarkisian, a bright offensive mind who tailored the system to his strengths. Haener flourished immediately in Kalen DeBoer's quarterback-centric scheme. Conversely, Browne was saddled with Shawn Watson's outdated offense at Pitt, and Hunter Johnson was mired in an offensive system at Northwestern under Mick McCall that ranked 127th in the nation in total offense. The conclusion is inescapable: elite, modern offensive coaching is the single greatest predictor of success.

    • Supporting Cast: The talent differential between the successful and unsuccessful cases is stark. Sanchez was surrounded by a roster teeming with future NFL players at every position group. In contrast, Browne and Barnett were the most talented players on their respective offenses, forced to elevate the players around them rather than being elevated by them. This demonstrates that while the quarterback is the trigger, the quality of the weapons and protection is paramount.

    • Defensive Support: A factor that is often overlooked is the quality of the team's defense. USC's 2008 defense was historically great, allowing a mere 9.0 points per game. This created a low-pressure environment where Sanchez was not required to win high-scoring shootouts. Pitt's 2017 defense, on the other hand, was porous, surrendering 26.6 points per game and forcing Browne into more difficult situations. The 2025 Alabama defense projects to be a top-3 unit nationally, mirroring the immense advantage Sanchez enjoyed in 2008.
    Section 5: The Projection - Forecasting Ty Simpson's 2025 Campaign

    The culmination of this historical analysis is a data-driven forecast for Ty Simpson's 2025 season. By synthesizing the performance of his historical peers and adjusting for the specific, highly advantageous context he will inherit at Alabama, we can construct a detailed projection of his statistical output and its implications for the Crimson Tide.

    5.1 Comparing Contexts: Alabama 2025 vs. The Historical Cohort

    When placed alongside the situations of the historical comparables, Ty Simpson's 2025 environment at Alabama is not just favorable; it is arguably the most ideal of the entire cohort, including the "gold standard" set by Mark Sanchez at USC in 2008.
    • Coaching/System: Advantage Simpson. The DeBoer/Grubb offensive system has a more recent and statistically explosive track record of elevating first-year starting quarterbacks than any other system in this analysis. The immediate, nation-leading success of Michael Penix Jr. (4,641 yards, 31 TDs in his first year) and Jake Haener (4,000-yard pace in his first year) provides direct evidence of its potency. This system is a perfect match for Simpson's skill set as an accurate, strong-armed pocket passer.

    • Supporting Cast: Advantage Simpson. The 2025 Alabama roster is, on paper, on par with or superior to the legendary 2008 USC team. The offensive line is anchored by a generational talent in Kadyn Proctor, the receiving corps is a consensus top-five unit nationally with multiple future NFL draft picks, and the running back room is exceptionally deep. This represents an arsenal of weaponry that exceeds what was available to any other quarterback in the cohort.

    • Defense: Advantage Simpson. The 2025 Alabama defense is projected to be a top-three unit in the country, boasting elite talent at all three levels. This mirrors the dominant defense that supported Sanchez in 2008 and provides a significant advantage over the situations faced by Browne, Barnett, and Haener, who all played with defenses that ranked outside the national elite.
    Given that Simpson is stepping into a situation that is superior in every critical category, the "Prime Situation Average" derived from Sanchez and Haener should be considered a conservative baseline, or floor, for his potential output.

    5.2 Statistical Forecast for Ty Simpson

    The following projection uses the "Prime Situation Average" as a foundation and adjusts upward to account for the hyper-productive nature of the DeBoer system and the elite talent level of the 2025 Alabama roster. The schedule, which includes road trips to Florida State, Georgia, and Auburn, is challenging, but the offensive firepower should allow for consistent production.

    Table 2: Ty Simpson 2025 Season Projection (13-Game Regular Season)

    Stat Category

    Projected Value

    Rationale / Comparable

    Completions

    ~330

    Higher than Sanchez (241) due to the pass-heavy nature of the DeBoer system. In line with Penix's first year (362).

    Attempts

    ~490

    DeBoer's QBs consistently have high volume. Penix had 554 attempts in his first year.

    Completion %

    ~67%

    Aligns with the system's emphasis on accuracy and high-percentage throws. Higher than Sanchez (65.8%) and Haener (64.7%).

    Passing Yards

    ~4,100

    A conservative estimate below Penix's 4,641 but well above the Sanchez/Haener average, reflecting Alabama's elite WRs.

    Passing TDs

    ~35

    Slightly above Sanchez (34) and Penix's first year (31), reflecting superior red zone weapons and offensive line.

    Interceptions

    ~8

    Lower than the Sanchez/Haener average (11), reflecting a system that prioritizes ball security and a strong run game.

    Rushing Yards

    ~150

    Simpson is an athletic QB who can extend plays, similar to Sanchez. This projects positive yardage, unlike many pocket passers.

    Rushing TDs

    ~4

    Will be a threat on designed runs and scrambles in the red zone, similar to Sanchez (3) and Haener (7, prorated).

    5.3 The Narrative of 2025: What This Season Looks Like

    A season with this statistical output would be a resounding success for Ty Simpson and the Alabama Crimson Tide. It would represent a seamless transition at the most important position on the field and the successful installation of Kalen DeBoer's offensive vision.

    The narrative of the season would be one of elite efficiency. Simpson would operate as a lethal point guard, not necessarily making spectacular, off-script plays like his predecessor, but consistently and accurately distributing the football to his plethora of playmakers. The offense would likely rank in the top 10 nationally in passing yards, total offense, and scoring offense, characterized by explosive plays from receivers Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard and a balanced, punishing run game led by Jam Miller.

    With this level of quarterback play complementing a dominant defense, Alabama would be a formidable opponent for any team in the country. They would enter their key matchups against Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, and Oklahoma with a balanced attack capable of winning in multiple ways. This performance would firmly place Alabama in the hunt for the SEC Championship and a berth in the 12-team College Football Playoff.

    Individually, a season of this caliber would vault Ty Simpson from a relative unknown into the national spotlight. He would be a strong contender for First or Second-Team All-SEC honors and would enter the conversation as a potential first or second-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, mirroring the rapid ascent of Mark Sanchez in 2008.


    Conclusion: The Verdict on Patience in the Portal Era

    The deep research into the last two decades of college football reveals a clear and compelling conclusion: the path of the patient, 5-star quarterback protégé is fraught with peril but holds the potential for immense reward. The historical data, though limited by the rarity of the archetype in the modern transfer portal era, demonstrates that innate talent, as signified by a 5-star recruiting ranking, is not in itself a predictor of success. The careers of players like Max Browne and Hunter Johnson serve as powerful cautionary tales, illustrating that even the most decorated prospects can falter when placed in unstable or ill-fitting offensive systems without an elite supporting cast.

    Conversely, the successes of Mark Sanchez and Jake Haener prove that when this specific archetype—a talented quarterback with three years of development—is inserted into a high-level infrastructure, the results can be spectacular. The single greatest determinant of success is the quality of the ecosystem: the offensive scheme, the coaching, and the talent of the surrounding players.

    Ty Simpson's situation heading into the 2025 season at the University of Alabama represents the absolute pinnacle of this ecosystem. He possesses the requisite 5-star talent. He will operate within the famously productive Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb offensive system, which has a proven track record of elevating first-year starters to national prominence. He will be protected by one of the nation's best offensive lines and will distribute the ball to a top-five receiving corps. Finally, he will be supported by a championship-caliber defense that will mitigate pressure and create favorable opportunities. His situation is not just comparable to the historical best-case scenario set by Mark Sanchez in 2008; it is arguably superior across every critical metric.

    Therefore, the final verdict of this analysis is that Ty Simpson is positioned for a breakout season of historic proportions. The statistical projection of approximately 4,100 passing yards and 35 touchdowns is not an optimistic guess but a data-driven forecast based on the most relevant precedents, adjusted for an unprecedented level of support. His success would not only propel Alabama to the forefront of the national championship conversation but would also serve as a powerful, albeit rare, counter-narrative in the age of quarterback transience—a testament to the enduring value of patience, development, and the profound impact of a perfectly aligned opportunity.
     
    Owsley, southlick and i am a bammer like this.
  37. IV

    IV Freedom is the right of all sentient beings
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    That’s a lot of words to project a good year
     
  38. LeonardWashington

    LeonardWashington Leader of Tuanon
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    the business school grad that wrote this was on an adderall bender that would make even Gump blush
     
    Tommy Callahan, Tiffin, bama1 and 9 others like this.
  39. SummerOfGeorge

    SummerOfGeorge Friend of the Program
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    That's science bitch
     
  40. SummerOfGeorge

    SummerOfGeorge Friend of the Program
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    His name is Gem Ini.
     
  41. SummerOfGeorge

    SummerOfGeorge Friend of the Program
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    In conclusion, Ty Simpson having an elite season and leading the Tahd to the national title might just save our country by teaching young men the value of hard work, discipline, stick to itness and determination.

    America, get behind your team and your man.
     
  42. Nug

    Nug MexicanNug
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    [​IMG]
     
  43. SummerOfGeorge

    SummerOfGeorge Friend of the Program
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    It's written in stone. Prepare anuses rest of the SEC.
     
  44. RJF-GUMP

    RJF-GUMP Daubert Qualified in Cooler Thermodynamics
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    now that's bender style Tolstoy'ing if I've ever seen it .
     
  45. southlick

    southlick "Better Than You"
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  46. Jake Barnes

    Jake Barnes Team Mac OG
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    This absolutely gutted me. Never the kind of kid I would expect to get popped for this.
     
    Rammer Jammer likes this.
  47. southlick

    southlick "Better Than You"
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  48. southlick

    southlick "Better Than You"
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  49. Saul Shabazz

    Saul Shabazz RIP Big 'Fo Dub'
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    Tay just excited to see who is actually on the roster like the rest of us Nole fans