College Football Calculator

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by TableKnight, Aug 27, 2010.

  1. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    A couple years ago I created a college football calculator and last year I implemented it into a website.

    I have been using it to gamble the past couple of years and more often than not I have been winning money on a weekly basis.

    If you want to check it out I would appreciate it.

    http://www.collegefootballcalc.com/


    I said it on the site but note that the week 1 predictions are just based off of last years results. Since I only use statistical data I would not start trusting the predictions till week 4 at the earliest
     
  2. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Good luck bro. I will definetly keep my eye on this
     
  3. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    very interesting....going to be a good thing to follow......
     
  4. gotyacovered

    gotyacovered New Member
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    it has bama beating hogs... cant be right... j/k

    good luck, look forward to following it.
     
  5. Where Eagles Dare

    Where Eagles Dare The Specialist Show On Earth
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesWashington Football TeamAtlanta United

    You are doing it wrong. Should go the TPSC method. Stop being a pussy. Offer huge returns, sell it & disappear in 2 months.

    Seriously, for week 1 I put in Arky St vs Auburn. Spread is 31. Your calc gives me AU 33 AkSt 20.

    Skeptical, but I'll keep an eye on it.

    Once the season gets going, you'll use current season stats in your algorithm? That's why you say wait a month?
     
  6. RUseaweed

    RUseaweed Rutgers
    Donor

    also, you have ecu beating tulsa. if skip holtz still coached there then obviously you'd be right. but with a new coach there, those stats from last year don't mean anything (in all likelihood).
     
  7. Swt

    Swt Well-Known Member
    TMB OG

    thanks will follow it
     
  8. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    Alabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesJacksonville Jaguars2pacSneakersFormula 1

    I'm confused. I put in SJSU @ Bama and it says Bama wins 40-12, yet down at the bottom, it shows:

    San Jose State @ Alabama Vegas Says: Alabama by 39 I Say: Alabama by 37

    So you say Bama by 37, yet the calculator says 28? I confused. :idk:
     
  9. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    Um... I think you did something wrong

    http://www.collegefootballcalc.com/?H=3&A=83

    Says 8-45
     
  10. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    Yup... Realistically I think of it like the BCS System... I need 4-6 weeks of stats to get an accurate measure on how good a team is
     
  11. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    Alabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesJacksonville Jaguars2pacSneakersFormula 1

  12. 47 straight

    47 straight Well-Known Member
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    Cleveland BrownsOklahoma City Thunder

  13. Swt

    Swt Well-Known Member
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    The Bama line is now at 36.5/37 now fyi
     
  14. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    Week 2 stats are up

    Once again I wouldn't take these predictions too seriously till at least week 4
     
  15. kmac1231

    kmac1231 Well-Known Member
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    Good call on ECU!
     
  16. Harrison Beck

    Harrison Beck Bailout Bro
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    Detroit LionsLiverpoolNebraska Cornhuskers alt

    Calculator really likes Miss st. hmmmmmm

    Away Team Home Team
    Team Auburn Mississippi State
    Score 24 37
    Passing Yards 216 351
    Rushing Yards 202 121
    Turnovers 1 1
     
  17. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Like he said. He only has Week 1 statistics done. So you are going to have to wait a couple weeks to get better results
     
  18. blind dog

    blind dog wps
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    Arkansas RazorbacksGreen Bay PackersWu-tangCoors Light

    Away Team Home Team
    Team UL Monroe Arkansas
    Score 1 455
    Passing Yards 51 708
    Rushing Yards 37 640
    Turnovers 0 2

    looks right to me
     
  19. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    Week 3 is up... Starting to look more reasonable, but still some anomalies AKA Houston
     
  20. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    This week over Vegas we correctly picked the winner 60.78% of the time!
    This week we correctly picked the winner 74.00% of the time!

    The Bet Busters were only 50% but that doesn't surprise me, the bet busters is just the games where I have the biggest difference with Vegas, so this early teams with inflated stats are going to look better for the calculator (AKA Houston and ECU)

    http://www.collegefootballcalc.com/Article.aspx?AID=1028
     
  21. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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  22. dallasdawg

    dallasdawg does the tin man have a sheet metal cock?
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    Texas RangersDallas MavericksDallas CowboysDallas StarsOklahoma Sooners

    so basically, if I bet on the ten games in the Top Bet Busters, I should come out on top, winning between 6 and 8 of those?
     
  23. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    In theory, But use common sense. Last year week 4 I went 80% in my bet busters.

    http://www.collegefootballcalc.com/Article.aspx?AID=1003
     
  24. dallasdawg

    dallasdawg does the tin man have a sheet metal cock?
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    Texas RangersDallas MavericksDallas CowboysDallas StarsOklahoma Sooners

    I might actually do that this week. I've made some terrible bets so far but at least I'm hovering around even
     
  25. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    i base my results off better the spread, never the moneyline FIY

    I am unsure how it works as far as over/under also... that might be a new feature I try out later this year/next season
     
  26. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
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    Oklahoma City ThunderPhiladelphia EaglesOklahoma SoonersBarAndGrillBig 8 Conference

    on your bet busters, are those listed in order of best bets or just randomly listed?
     
  27. kmac1231

    kmac1231 Well-Known Member
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    I like Idaho and Nevada already.
     
  28. RUseaweed

    RUseaweed Rutgers
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    it's sweet of your calculator to have us by 14, but... jeez we've sucked lately. and we're having a change at o-line. hopefully it pans out.

    if we win by 14 i will click on every ad on your webpage 20 times.
     
  29. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    They are listed in order of the largest discrepancy between my prediction and the Vegas odds
     
  30. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    Of all the busters I like that one the least. With Rutgers only have played 2 games and 1 being a cupcake (and the other FIU) their stats are still skewed.

    I would not take that bet IMHO.
     
  31. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    Last week was horrendous for me.

    This week I am not sure what to think either. 70% of my predictions are within 3 pts of Vegas...
     
  32. Wendel Clark

    Wendel Clark Gambling God
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    Just want to give a recommendation. Not sure how you could do it tho.

    I wanted to see if Florida played Miami. It looks to me that you don't have any points in there for home field advantage. Not sure what you could do with that.
     
  33. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    I do have points for home field advantage, it isn't the standard vegas 3 pts though... it is a multiplier based on Sagarin's home field advantage number. some teams have a better home field advantage than others.

    Right now the HF advantage is worked into it. I'm not sure the neutral site part is working perfectly though
     
  34. RUseaweed

    RUseaweed Rutgers
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    Bump. Interested in the virginia gtech matchup... where are uva's stats to support that coming from?
     
  35. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    UVA scores an AVG of 27.50pts per game While GT lets up 25.40 pts per game
    UVA avg 399.50yards per game and GT lets up an avg of 347.80 yards per game

    My calc predicted UVA 25pts and 355 total yards. Seems reasonable to me
     
  36. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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