College Football Calculator

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by TableKnight, Aug 22, 2011.

  1. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    I just went though and got my site ready for the new season.

    Like always week 1 is just based off last season statistics and usually not enough data is gathered till after week 4 to make accurate predictions.

    Feel free give me any feedback if you want as well

    I will bump again week 5 when I have my Bet Busters up

    http://www.collegefootballcalc.com
     
  2. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Miami DolphinsNebraska Cornhuskers

    How did your Calc do last year? I meant to check it, but forgot.
     
  3. Patface

    Patface Touch & Go Like A Dantonio Heartbeat
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    Oakland RaidersWWESan Jose SharksSeattle SupersonicsDeVry FarvasGolden State WarriorsOakland A'sCalifornia Golden BearsNotre Dame Fighting IrishSan Jose Earthquakes

    That is freaking awesome that it has the Western Michigan/Michigan game as a push.
     
  4. Richard Yanker

    Richard Yanker Riding with Haysuse

    Curious about your calculation process. Is it power rankings based or based on PF/PA percentages, etc..
     
  5. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    It's gotten more in depth every year... but basically i take passing yardage, rushing yardage, turnover ratio and turn that into an equation for scoring, then I take a defenses passing yards given, rushing yards given, and turnovers forced into another equation. I then weight each team based on a bunch of factors and then compare the offensive and defensive results. Then I "average" them together for lack of better word and I get an estimated score, yardage, and turnover %

    Then I take the top 10 score differences between my guesses and Vegas and I bet on a couple of those and I have had pretty good success beating Vegas that way.

    Last year i also started tracking how a team performs against the spread, so I use that to pick 1 game out of the 10 biggest differences for my most likely bet buster
     
  6. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    Does it factor in SOS at all?
     
  7. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    Yes
     
  8. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    Do you have the stats for how it performs for favorites vs underdogs?

    Or games where you have vegas with the wrong team favored vs games where your line is different but the same team is favored?

    Or where your line is within 3 points...6 points...double digits?

    Would be interesting to see if there's any trends there.
     
  9. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    Very interested in this.
     
  10. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    It's still a young project and something I develop on the side. Right now I just save the results of my top 10 differences with Vegas and my overall % for the week for win/loss and vs Vegas.

    Improvements I want to add this year is to start saving more data I produce so I can generate some charts and graphs. Bitches love visual data.
     
  11. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    Also I'm very open to ideas for improvement
     
  12. Richard Yanker

    Richard Yanker Riding with Haysuse

    It sounds similair to something I created a good while ago. Was pretty good predicting lines after about 6 weeks after enough stats were in. Was money on over unders when the difference was more than 10 points. Would be glad to share it. Never factored in SOS. That was hard to figure.
     
  13. Where Eagles Dare

    Where Eagles Dare The Specialist Show On Earth
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesWashington Football TeamAtlanta United

    I remember this from last year.

    So...what are your % like for you top 10 differences w/ vegas & your overall?
     
  14. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    Week 1 uses the final stats from last year, and week 2 only uses week 1 statistics

    The calculator isn't using enough data till about week 4

    but last week I had no top 10 (for the reasons listed above)
    This week over Vegas we correctly picked the winner 46.67% of the time
    This week we correctly picked the winner 93.33% of the time!
     
  15. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Miami DolphinsNebraska Cornhuskers

    Do you have the Vegas comparison and Correctly picked # from last season anywhere?
     
  16. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    NVM, found it

    It looks like if we bet based on your data, we'd be losers overall.
     
  17. cuc mach

    cuc mach New Member

    Just got it. Nice work bro.
     
  18. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
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    Oregon 100 Nevada 75. That would be a wild game to say the least
     
  19. Karl Hungus

    Karl Hungus Fan of lingonberry pancakes, autobahn, deine kable
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    UCF 29 at Oklahoma 19.

    UCF #1 team in the land. i'd bet the house on them to win it all people.
     
  20. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    LOL, i would say wait till next week when the stats are starting to even out. But i really think UCF playing FIU is just gonna make our stats look even better.

    UCF is having a statistically freakish year
     
  21. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    also UCF loses to Arkansas
     
  22. Karl Hungus

    Karl Hungus Fan of lingonberry pancakes, autobahn, deine kable
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    and florida.
     
  23. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    My betting lines are finally posted

    Honestly this weeks 10 bets look terrible... Probably should have waited for another weeks worth of statistics
     
  24. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
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    Miami DolphinsNebraska Cornhuskers

    Link isn't working.
     
  25. TableKnight

    TableKnight Go Knights
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    fixed