NCAAF betting preview: Big 12 Conference After nearly suffering total dissolution prior to the 2011 campaign, when Colorado and Nebraska bolted, the Big 12 is back for another season. And as improbable as it may seem after losing Missouri and Texas A&M to the SEC, the conference is arguably stronger than ever. That’s because the Big 12 inked a reported $1.3 billion contract with ESPN and lured TCU and West Virginia into the fold. That means the conference will operate as 10-team league for the second straight year as it continues to explore options to expand back to 12 teams or beyond. It also means that each school will play a round-robin regular season schedule among its members, providing a true league champion. That move contributed to the Big 12 members having the nation's top-ranked strength of schedule last season. A quick recap shows the Big 12 participated in eight bowls games for the third consecutive season, and the ninth time in the past 16 years. Its 6-2 record last season was the best in conference history. In addition, the Big 12 completed its non-conference schedule with the nation’s best non-conference win percentage at .868 (33-5). The conference also led the country in regular season non-conference win percentage at .900 (27-3). Big 12 teams went 11-3 against bowl-bound teams in 2011 regular season play. The .900 mark in regular season non-league games is not only a Big 12 record, but also the best among all conferences since 1996 - topping the .882 (30-4) recorded by the SEC in 1997. The previous Big 12 best occurred during the 2001 season when the league compiled a .868 (33-5). The league also tallied its best non-conference record in the month of September at 26-2. Oklahoma State won last year's Big 12 title, even after losing offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen to West Virginia. The Cowboys ranked third in total offense and second in passing offense. With Holgorsen, West Virginia adds a dynamic wrinkle to the league. Holgorsen's playbook at Oklahoma State led the nation in total offense in 2010. His offenses at Houston led the nation in 2009 and finished second in 2008. From 2005 to 2007, Holgorsen was at Texas Tech when the Red Raiders offense was ranked No. 2, No. 6, and No. 4 in 2007, 2006 and 2005 respectively. His passing offenses were No. 1, 3, 1, 2, 1, and 2 from 2005 through 2010, and No. 6 in his first season at West Virginia last year. West Virginia and Holgorsen’s hurry-up attack fits like a glove in a conference that still suffers from an age-old Indian disease that continues to affect most teams in the league: Lack-a-defense. Along with TCU’s always-potent offense, it’s bombs away in the born-again Big 12. Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2012 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview. Baylor Bears – (6 offensive starters returning, 8 defensive starters returning) Team Theme: RG3 UNPLUGGED A historic effort, behind a Heisman-winning campaign by QB Robert Griffin III, took the Bears to new heights last season. When the dust settled, 10 wins matched a school record, Baylor won a bowl game for the first time since 1992, and snapped a 20-game losing skid (as 17-point home dogs) to Oklahoma. It’s uncertain what happens to this high-powered offense this season. This much we know for sure: Defensive coordinator Phil Bennett was brought in last year to tighten the screws on a unit that has now regressed each of the last three seasons. Without RG3 around to ignite the offense, Baylor can ill afford continued slippage from its stop unit. It needs to step up. Stat You Will Like:] The Bears faced only one defense (Texas) ranked in the nation’s Top 40 last season. PLAY AGAINST: at Oklahoma (11/10) Iowa State Cyclones - (*7,5) Team Theme: ON THE RIGHT RHOAD Props to Paul Rhoads, who has taken a two-win team he inherited in 2008 to bowl games in two of the past three seasons. Not only did his Cyclones snap a 36-game road-losing skid when they beat the Longhorns in Austin as 21-point dogs, they also drilled the Red Raiders as 15.5-point dogs in Lubbock last year. More amazingly, he guided his team to a bowl game last season despite being an underdog in 10 of 11 lined games. The excitement has also hit Ames as ISU had more than 50,000 fans in attendance for every home game for the first time in school history. The best linebacker duo in the land, A.J. Klein and Jake Knott (231 combined tackles), should keep this team on the winning road. Stat You Will Like: Rhoads is 15-1 SU in games when ISU allows less than 24 points and 3-19 SU in games when ISU allows 24 or more points. PLAY ON: vs. Kansas State (10/13) Kansas Jayhawks – (6,6) Team Theme: WEIS INVESTMENT? Don’t feel sorry for college football’s most renowned coaching vagabond. Charlie Weis still bleeds green – as in the color of money. Not only does Weis’ fourth coaching job in as many years guarantee him $2.5 million annually plus incentives over the next five years, he is still collecting from his days at Notre Dame and Kansas City. His new contract also allocates $2.1 million for a coaching staff, thus the hiring of defensive coordinator Dave Campo, an 18-year veteran with the Dallas Cowboys. He’ll also have the services of fifth-year Irish transfer QB Dayne Christ with former BYU signal-caller Jake Heaps taking over in 2013. The receiving corps are thin but don’t expect Weis to lose $leep anytime soon. Stat You Will Like: The Jayhawks are 1-20 SU from Game 6 out the last three years. PLAY AGAINST: at Northern Illinois (9/22) Kansas State Wildcats – (*8,6) Team Theme: GRAND SURPRISE Not many great-grandfathers can lay claim to winning Coach of the Year honors unless, of course, your name is Bill Snyder and you captured that distinction in the Big 12 last season. Thanks to a bevy of close calls (nine games decided by one score or less in which KSU went 8-1), the Wildcats somehow won 10 games despite being outgained by 57 yards per game. The offense is in good hands as first-team All-Big 12 QB Collin Klein (FBS record 27 rushing TD’s last year) returns for his senior season following his Tebowesque performance. However, the Wildcats are at the top of our fade list after accomplishing so much while doing so little in the stats. Stat You Will Like: The Wildcats have gone bowling 14 of the last 17 years head coach Bill Snyder has been on the sidelines. PLAY AGAINST: vs. Texas (12/1) Oklahoma Sooners – (*8,7) Team Theme: THE OLD GANG IS BACK TOGETHER The highest-scoring program in NCAA annals, Oklahoma has averaged 27.03 points per game in its 1,182-game history. And it should go higher now that Bob Stoops has convinced Landry Jones, the all-time yardage and touchdown leader in OU lore, to return for his senior season. Having all but one of his protectors from a two-deep offensive line – including six who have totaled 102 starts – may have been all the convincing Jones needed. On the other side of the ball, “Big Game” Bob will rely on little brother Mike to call the shots as he makes his second stint in Norman after getting bounced from the Arizona sidelines midway through the 2011 season. Stat You Will Like: Oklahoma’s 15 returning starters this year missed 32 combined games last year. PLAY ON: at Texas Tech (10/6) - *KEY Oklahoma State Cowboys – (6,8) Team Theme: GUNNING FOR MORE En route to winning their first outright conference title since the 1940’s, the Cowboys started the 2011 campaign with 10 wins in a row for the first time in school history. Despite the loss of NFL first-rounders WR Justin Blackmon and QB Brandon Weeden, head coach Mike Gundy is ecstatic that 36 of his top 51 players on last year’s depth chart – including his top four RB’s and six of his top seven tacklers – return to Stillwater. The Cowboys led the nation in forced turnovers with 44 and will need more of the same in 2012, as five opponents with 10 or more wins grace the slate. Gundy returns both coordinators for the first time in six years. Stat You Will Like: Mike Gundy was 12-15 in his first 27 games with the Cowboys. He’s 47-15 since. PLAY ON: vs. Iowa State (10/20) TCU Horned Frogs – (*5,4) Team Theme: UP IN SMOKE When four football players were named among the 17 students arrested on campus for buying and selling dope, it left a heavy stain on this once squeaky-clean program. Here’s a squad that heads into the Big 12 after bullying the MWC (38-1), owning the best record (77-13) in the state of Texas since 2005 and registering 11 wins in six of the last seven years. We could go on about the amazing numbers that Gary Patterson’s troops have posted but we’d run out of space. Record-setting QB Casey Pachall is back but this inaugural season in Big 12 land could go up in smoke if the defense doesn’t return to the form that led the nation five of the past 12 years. Stat You Will Like: The Frogs have scored 27 or more points in 31 consecutive regular season games. PLAY ON: as a dog at Baylor (10/13) – *KEY Texas Longhorns (*9,7) Team Theme: WE’RE HOOKED Texas bounced back off a disastrous five-win effort in 2010 to win eight games last year, including a satisfying win over California in the Holiday Bowl. The Longhorns are no longer mentioned among the nation’s elite but they own seven Top-10 finishes since 2002. Prior to Mack Brown’s arrival in 1998, the Horns last appeared in the Top 10 in 1983. Quarterbacks David Ash and Case McCoy welcome the return of their top three wideouts but the question becomes can a 39-9 SU record in true Big 12 road games under Brown offset a salty schedule that finds opponents tallying an 87-65 record – including six that won 10 or more games? Stat You Will Like: Over the last four years, Texas has held 43 of its 51 opponents under their scoring average. PLAY ON: as a dog at Oklahoma State (9/29) - *KEY off win Texas Tech Red Raiders – (*9,9) Team Theme: LUBBOCK OR LEAVE IT The hiring of Tommy Tuberville by Texas Tech two years ago appeared a genius move for a program that flirted with BCS bowl contention under Mike Leach. Two years later, though, win totals and offensive production are way down while losses and defensive yield are spinning out of control. Tuberville looks to reverse those outcomes with three new defensive coaches, including a fourth coordinator in as many years, and arguably the strongest compliment of returning starters in the Big 12. Senior QB Seth Doege and main target Eric Ward lead the charge, making the Red Raiders a full-fledged, highly capable “Mission Team” in 2012 while erasing last year’s 0-5 finish. Stat You Will Like: The Red Raiders have had two losing seasons in conference play since 1991 – both of which have occurred the last two years. PLAY ON: at Kansas State (10/27) - *KEY West Virginia Mountaineers (*9/7) Team Theme:CHANGING PONDS A psych question often asked is would you rather be a big fish in a little pond or a little fish in a big pond? While it’s up for debate, the WVU brass opted to swim with the big boys when they said goodbye to the Big East and hello to the Big 12. With fellow newcomer TCU also debuting, the league is back and as strong as ever. And head coach Dana Holgorsen should fit in well, having been a coordinator with Oklahoma State. While everyone remembers the 70-point outburst dynamic QB Geno Smith put on Clemson in last year’s Orange Bowl, it’s easy to forget the Hillbillies’ struggles against Big East foes (only two of seven games resulted in wins of more than three points). Be careful. Stat You Will Like: After being the only team in the nation to not allow 24 points in any game in 2010, the Mountaineers surrendered more than 24 points on seven occasions last year. PLAY AGAINST: vs. Marshall (9/1)
NCAAF conference preview: CUSA team-by-team breakdown The new four-team playoffs is now the talk of college football, and it appears the evolution of the proposed 16-team league ‘Super Conferences’ is more up in the air than ever before. One thing is certain: the BCS remains intact through the 2013 season and, like it or not, it’s their world and they still rule. A misnomer commonly associated inside the bizarre-world of the BCS is that only six major conferences carry the handle of being a ‘BCS conference’. Actually there are 11 BCS conferences in all, six who qualify with automatic berths (AQ) into BCS bowl games for their conference champions, and five who do not (non-AQ). The current Conference USA being among the latter. Despite its non-AQ status, the CUSA has more than held its own of late with 10 different teams from the conference participating in 40 bowl games over the last seven years. And they’ve held their own in these post-season affairs, going 18-22 SU and 19-20-1 ATS. Interestingly, in that span against .666 or greater bowl opponents the CUSA is 13-8 SU and 15-6 ATS, while just 5-14 SU and 4-14-1 ATS versus sub .666 foes. Go figure. Houston’s 13 wins tied LSU for most in FBS last season while the CUSA posted a sterling 4-1 bowl record in the 2011 campaign. The CUSA will lose Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF to the Big East next season. Meanwhile the CUSA imports Charlotte, FIU, Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Old Dominion and Texas-San Antonio in 2013 – although it’s unclear at this point which teams will be football member of the new-look CUSA. If talk like this isn’t dizzying enough, the loop welcomes five new head coaches in 2012 while breaking in six new starting quarterbacks as well. Stepping outside the conference, members will take on 15 foes that finished in the Top 25 last season, including 18 games against foes from the Big Ten, the Big12 and the SEC. In head-to-head games against these three super conferences, the CUSA stands 45-187 SU and 97-124-5 ATS since it formed the conference, including a super-scary 2-110 SU and 33-77-2 ATS in games in which its teams fail to score 17 points. Scarier, perhaps, is the fact many of the teams hanging on in this conference are uncertain which neighborhood league they will be calling home by the time the new NCAA Championship playoff format debuts in 2014. Talk about sacrificial lambs. Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2012 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine by the same author. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview. East Division EAST CAROLINA – (7/7) Team Theme: OVER THE TOP The Pirates witnessed an abundance of players (25) making their first-ever collegiate start last season, one more than the previous year. This forced-maturity, coupled with a roster featuring over 50 percent upper classmen, makes for exciting times in Greenville. The loss of QB Dominique Davis hurts but the return of WR Justin Hardy, the Pirates leading reception and yardage receiver in 2011, along with four starting offensive linemen, should aid an attack that slipped substantially in 2011. More importantly, a defense that was last in the loop in 2010 improved by 102.5 YPG after switching to a 3-4 formation and returns 70 percent of its production in 2012. Stat You Will Like: The Pirates have appeared in seven bowl games since 2000, including five the last six years. PLAY ON: vs. Marshall (11/23) MARSHALL – (*8/5) Team Theme: IN THE HERD The Herd benefited last year from having played 28 freshmen in 2010 as they made it to – and won – a bowl game in Doc Holliday’s second season in Huntington. They did it while facing the nation’s second strongest slate of non-BCS opposition, while squaring off against three ranked foes for the first time ever in one season. Unfortunately, they ride a 0-13 SU streak against ranked opposition heading into this season. The good doctor, however, will once again have QB Rakeem Cato as well as a defense that ranked in the Top 20 in tackles for loss, fumble recoveries, fourth-down and red-zone efficiency at his disposal. Stat You Will Like: Marshall is 8-0 SU at home and 0-8 SU away versus teams hailing from the state of Texas. PLAY AGAINST: at Rice (9/22) MEMPHIS – (*9/8) Team Theme: ALL SHOOK UP After winning five games the last three years, the Memphis brass decided it was time to turn a Frog into a Tiger. New HC Justin Fuente arrives from TCU where he served as QB coach and co-offensive coordinator. In his three years at Fort Worth, the Frogs set single-season records for TDs, points scored and first downs. “Our players have to become more comfortable with how we do things… because it’s going to be different from anything they have done before,” contends Fuente. Fortunately, what won’t be much different is an offensive line that returns four starters. However, the rest of the unit just may get a Memphis makeover. Stat You Will Like: No wide receiver caught more than one touchdown for the Tigers last season. PLAY ON: as a dog vs. UAB (11/17) SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI - (6/4) Team Theme: AND THE BEAT GOES ON When the Golden Eagles defeated Nevada in last year’s Hawaii Bowl, it marked the first time in school history a Southern Miss team had won 12 games in the same season. It also marked the end of a terrific four-year run by HC Larry Fedora, who takes his entire staff to Chapel Hill. Fear not, Eagles enthusiasts. New boss Ellis Johnson, the defensive coordinator at South Carolina the past four seasons, hits Hattiesburg with some strong pedigree himself, as former college head coaches Rickey Bustle and Tommy West head the offensive and defensive units, respectively. Stat You Will Like: The Eagles have enjoyed a winning season each of the last 18 years. Only Florida, Florida State and Virginia Tech have more. PLAY ON: vs. Marshall (10/20) UAB – (*7/4) Team Theme: BLAZING COLD One of five new head coaches this season in C-USA – and only the fourth in UAB history – former Arkansas offensive coordinator Garrick McGee looks to halt a seven-year losing skid in Birmingham. QB Jonathan Perry is back after getting the starting nod midway through last season and leading the Blazers to their only three wins in 2011, but he’ll have to operate behind an offensive line that loses four starters. A more inspired effort will be needed from a stop-unit that was torched for more than 500 yards on seven different occasions but it probably won’t be enough as four of UAB’s six road games are against bowlers. We don’t see a quick cure for this seven-year itch. Stat You Will Like: The Blazers’ defense ranked dead last in the nation in sacks (8) last season. PLAY AGAINST: at Southern Mississippi (11/3) UCF – (6/8) Team Theme: STORM’S A BREWING Last year we lauded the talents of QB Jeffrey Godfrey and he promptly proceeded to lay an egg on our face (and his) when the pressure to perform on the field and in the classroom proved too much for the talented signal-caller to handle. After threatening to transfer, Godfrey agreed to rejoin the team as a receiver and part-time QB in UCF’s version of a Wildcat package. Bigger news is the addition of Miami (Fla.) transfer Storm Johnson, a RB who made a huge impression in spring camp. QB Blake Borties is back after beating out Godfrey and topping C-USA in passing efficiency. Don’t be (O)Leary – the Knights have enough weapons to return to the roundtable. Stat You Will Like: The Knights tied Miami Florida for most losses (6) by eight or fewer points last season. PLAY ON: vs. UAB (11/24) West Division HOUSTON – (5/6) Team Theme: CASE CLOSED After the final dust settled in last year’s bowl games, C-USA finished with the best percentage of all conferences, posting a 4-1 mark. New HC Tony Levine did his part as he guided the Cougars to a win over Penn State in the Ticket City Bowl when Kevin Sumlin jumped ship knowing NCAA career passing yards leader Case Keenum’s eligibility was about to run out. Sumlin did lead the Coogs to an unbeaten regular season but that was due to an incredibly soft schedule that featured only one foe with a winning record from the previous year. It looks like Levine may go ‘ground’ in 2012 as All C-USA RB Charles Sims (1,396 combined yards, 7.5 YPR) returns for his junior year. Stat You Will Like: The Cougars are 1-19 SU and 3-17 ATS as dogs off back-to-back conference losses. PLAY AGAINST: at UCLA (9/15) RICE – (*5/5) Team Theme: NO SNAP, CRACKLE OR POP It seems like eons ago, but it has actually been only four years since the Owls recorded a 10-win season. They’ve gone 10-26 since, with one glaring common denominator over that span: a rotten defense. Sixth-year boss David Bailiff realizes his fanny is getting warm so he’ll need to improve on the Owls’ 467.5 YPG annual-yield since he’s been on the Rice sidelines. Bailiff will count heavily on CB Bryce Callahan, whose six interceptions is tops among C-USA returnees. The keys to the offense will be given to QB Taylor McHargue but things won’t change until the Owls wake up on the road and improve on a 1-17 SU and 5-13 ATS mark since 2009. Stat You Will Like: Under Bailiff, the Owls are 2-15 ATS versus opponents off back-to-back wins, including 0-11 ATS away. PLAY ON: as a dog vs. SMU (11/17) - *KEY off win SMU (3/7) Team Theme: TOUGH TO FACE On the heels of seven-plus wins over the last three years for the first time since 1982-1984, the Mustangs made their biggest score when HC June Jones stayed put in Dallas rather than jump ship for Arizona State. QB J.J. McDermott has graduated and Kyle Padron has transferred, opening the door for former Texas starter Garrett Gilbert. RB Zach Line returns off a pair of 1,000-yard rushing efforts, as does star WR Darius Johnson – the MVP in each of the Ponies’ last two bowl games. However, if an offensive line is truly the ‘face of the team’, then SMU is faceless as the trenches must be rebuilt. One ray of light is a defense that has improved each and every year under Jones. Stat You Will Like: June Jones is 5-0 ATS as a dog of fewer than 20 points versus undefeated opposition. PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Texas A&M (9/15) - *KEY if A&M is undefeated TULANE – (*7/7) Team Theme: C.J. TO THE RESCUE After nine straight losing seasons, including the last five in a row under Bob Toledo, the Green Wave placed a 911 call to New Orleans native Curtis ‘C.J.’ Johnson and he responded. Johnson brings 25 years of coaching experience, along with some pretty nice hardware: a Super Bowl trophy during his stint with the Saints and a national championship ring as an assistant at Miami. And though a glossy resume won’t win games, it’s a good start towards recovery. So, too, is the return of senior QB Ryan Griffin, who has started 30 games the last three seasons, and RB Orleans Darkwa, who has rushed for 1,849 yards in 17 career starts. Stat You Will Like: Five of the Green Wave’s final six games are versus foes that finished the 2011 season with a losing record. PLAY ON: at Memphis (11/10) TULSA – (6/7) Team Theme: CATEGORY 8 The eight wins registered by Bill Blankenship in his first year at the Tulsa helm was really no surprise considering the Hurricane has logged eight or more wins in six of the last seven seasons since exiting the WAC in 2005. Blankenship’s biggest challenge in 2012 will be replacing all-conference QB G.J. Kinne and the entire left side of an OL that has started 83 games over the past four seasons. Hulking Nebraska transfer Cody Green won the starting QB job in spring camp and he’ll be joined by a pair of backs who each rushed for more than 800 yards in 2011 and a set of receivers who each reeled in more than 850 yards. With an easier slate, is eight enough in 2012? Stat You Will Like: Tulsa faced the toughest strength of schedule of all non-BCS teams last year. PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite at Iowa State (9/1) UTEP – (*7/4) Team Theme: THE PRICE IS NOT RIGHT Six in a row… and counting. That’s how many consecutive losing seasons the Miners have encountered under Mike Price after he was inked to a contract extension in 2005 following back-to-back bowl appearances. What seems like eons ago actually is if you apply a dose of daily math to the numbers – meaning it’s been 2,190 days since UTEP last struck bowl gold. The good news is the top three tacklers are back from last year’s defense. The bad news: all three starting LBs depart meaning the secondary will be busier than usual. With Price’s contract up at the end of the year, can you say, “Come on down… you’re the next coach in the unemployment line.” Stat You Will Like: Price is 43-83 SU and 41-82 ATS from Game Seven out in his career. PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Tulane (10/20)
NCAAF preview: Boise big fave in MWC with TCU gone By MARC LAWRENCE Like a new year’s resolution, it’s out with the old and in with the new… well sort of… in the Mountain West Conference in 2012. After breaking off talks with the Conference USA about a proposed super merger, the MWC lost its first-and-only three time champ, TCU, to the Big 12 this season, before bouncing back and luring three replacement members for 2012 - namely Fresno State, Hawaii and Nevada. By our scorecard three major powerhouse programs have bailed out the past two seasons (BYU, Utah and TCU) with the aforementioned Bulldogs, Rainbow Warriors and Wolf Pack taking their place. Pure and simple, if it were a trade the MWC would have been hosed. Granted, last year’s addition of Boise State (albeit temporarily) added luster but, in this wacky world of conference carpet-bagging, the Mountain suddenly appears to be crumbling. Through all changes the MWC owns the best percentage in bowl games of all conferences in games the last eight years, going 24-12 (.667). It has also produced four 8-win teams the last five years in a row, all who went bowling. In addition to the revolving door, four new coaches come calling in the Mountain West this season, three of whom that will be taking charge of a program for the first time in their coaching careers. The MWC has seen 16 first-year coaches the past 13 seasons, seven of which played in a bowl game in their debut year. Note: Team writeups by this author were excerpted from the 2012 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview. AIR FORCE – (3/2) Team Theme: WHAT, ME WORRY? When you’ve guided your team to a bowl game each and every year you’ve roamed its sideline, and then in one fell swoop lose 17 starters – including your four-year starting signal caller from an offense that put up its best ever numbers during your tenure – it may be time to reach for the Right Guard. But five of the Flyboys’ six home games are against teams that ended the 2011 season with losing records, and the Falcons are 19-1 SU and 9-5 ATS hosting non-winning foes under Troy Calhoun. Stat You Will Like: Falcons are 20-10 SU in the final six games of the season with Calhoun. They were 12-24 before his arrival. PLAY AGAINST: vs. Navy (10/6) BOISE STATE – (5/3) Team Theme: TOP OF THE CLASS Wouldn’t you know it? TCU dipped its toes into the Mountain West waters for just one year, but it was long enough to ruin another perfect season by the Broncos. The stunning 36-35 setback snapped Boise’s 65-game regular season, 47-game conference and 35-game home win streaks. The win skeins also contributed to an astonishing 50-3 record compiled by QB Kellen Moore, with all three losses coming by a total of five points. Like the Horned Frogs, Moore is now gone, leaving Chris Petersen – one of the most innovative offensive minds in college football – with 10 straight senior classes to win 40-plus games. Petersen’s horses own the nation’s longest active streak in the BCS standings (37 straight). Stat You Will Like: Boise State is the first program since 1920 to win 12 or more games in four consecutive seasons. COLORADO STATE – (7/7) Team Theme: UNSETTLING IN A 3-1 start had Ram backers forgetting back-to-back 3-9 seasons but then – just like that – a season-ending eight-game losing skid made it a three-peat and terminated the four-year reign of Steve Fairchild. Enter Alabama OC Jim McElwain who must think Fort Collins resembles Fort Apache as starting LB Michael Orakpo and DE Nardly Capi were expelled as a result of an off-campus brawl, and two-year starting QB Pete Thomas transferred to NC State following the firing of Fairchild. Garrett Grayson, who filled in for Thomas when he suffered a knee injury last season, inherits the starting job but, like Apache, may find a dilapidated attack early on. Stat You Will Like: The Rams are 1-11 ATS as road favorites since 2003. PLAY ON: vs. UNLV (11/10) FRESNO STATE (*8/7) Team Theme: OVER THE HILL The leash wasn’t long enough for Pat Hill to survive just his third losing season in 15 years at the Bulldogs’ helm. Enter Tim DeRuyter, who arrives with nine new assistants, as the Fresno makeover begins. The former Texas A&M defensive coordinator has the luxury of 15 returning starters – the most in the MWC this season – including a backfield that features QB Derek Carr, the younger brother of former No. 1 pick David Carr, and all-MWC RB Robbie Rouse. It’s time to let these ‘Dogs out as Carr threw for 3,544 yards in 2011 – the second highest among sophomore QB’s – while the diminutive Rouse has tallied over 2,600 rushing yards the past two seasons. Stat You Will Like: The Bulldogs are 19-5-1 ATS as single-digit non-conference dogs. HAWAII (7/4) Team Theme: CHOW TIME When Honolulu native Norm Chow was hired as the new Hawaii head coach, he became the first Asian American coach of a major college football program. The credentials are certainly there: 39 years of collegiate and NFL experience, three National Assistant Coach of the Year awards, three Heisman Trophy winners and six first-round NFL QBs. Though the WR corps remains intact, the offensive guru will be put to the test early as he loses All-WAC performer QB Bryant Moniz to graduation. After 33 years, the Warriors will be also calling a new conference home as they say mahalo WAC and aloha MWC. Stat You Will Like: The Warriors will travel 23,604 round trip miles in their four MWC games this season. PLAY ON: at Fresno State (11/3) NEVADA (*6/7) Team Theme: NEW LEADER IN THE CLUBHOUSE Looking for a free cold one this football season? Simply saunter into any sports bar and ask anyone to name the FBS college football coach with the most active career wins with one team. If they answer Chris Ault (226 wins with Nevada), they’re either from Reno or they have more time on their hands than Bobby Petrino. Ault hesitantly bids adieu to the WAC as he enters the MWC this season with a 17-1 SU log in his last 18 home games. The good news for the Nevada faithful is the fact that the Pack takes on a schedule laced with opponents that went a combined 46-67 ATS in 2011. Dual-threat QB Cody Fajardo will once again be in charge of triggering the ‘Pistol.’ Stat You Will Like: Chris Ault is 24-8-1 ATS as a home favorite, including 8-0 ATS versus non-conference foes. PLAY ON: vs. Boise State (12/1) NEW MEXICO (*8/6) Team Theme: LET’S GET PHYSICAL College football television analyst Bob Davie is back on the sidelines after 10 years away from the locker room. Here’s Urban Meyer on Davie: “X’s and O’s and understanding the game of football, he’s one of the best minds that I’ve ever been around.” However, Davie will bring a physical approach to Albuquerque. “We’ll hit. I’m not going to tippy-toe into it. There is only way to play the game and that’s to be physical,” says the former Notre Dame head coach. Davie does return eight starters on offense but that’s like hiring the staff of the Titanic to captain a ship as the Lobos ranked 120th in the land in scoring (12 PPG). Yep, physical sounds like the right way to go. Stat You Will Like: Bob Davie is 12-0 SU and 8-4 ATS at home versus sub .400 opponents PLAY ON: vs. Texas State (10/6) SAN DIEGO STATE – (7/6) Team Theme: PACKING UP One year away from moving into the Big East Conference – yes, the Big East – the Aztecs are hoping to stay above water in 2012 after suffering major losses from last year’s bowl squad. Gone are QB Ryan Lindley and RB Ronnie Hillman. Spring camp saw former Oregon State QB Ryan Katz the frontrunner for Lindley’s job while the stop-unit was still looking for replacements after losing virtually its entire front seven. In truth, the Aztecs actually scrimmaged more than practiced this spring in hopes of finding those replacements. A very favorable seven-game home slate should help somewhat, but taking on foes that were 59-44 ATS last year will not. Stat You Will Like: Rocky Long is 1-9 ATS at home in conference games when playing off a double-digit win. PLAY AGAINST: vs. Army (9/8) UNLV (*8/5) Team Theme: WHAT THE F*** ARE YOU DOING? Likeable Bobby Hauck knows that unless he improves on a pair of two-win seasons and seriously addresses a defense that ranked No. 117 in the nation, he’ll likely end up like most other ‘good fellas’ in Vegas – last seen in the desert talking to a Joe Pesci look-alike. “We are a better looking team in our uniforms but the depth charts shows the youth,” admits Hauck. He’s right: of the 47 returning lettermen, just two red-shirt seniors and 11 scholarship seniors answer the roll call. Hopefully, opening the season with four straight home games for the first time since 1973 will stave off that little road trip to the desert. After all, Hauck is 0-14 SU and 1-13 ATS away from home. Stat You Will Like: The Rebels have been outgained in 21 of their 25 games under Hauck. PLAY AGAINST: at Hawaii (11/24) WYOMING (*5/8) Team Theme: WE TRY HARDER The Cowboys’ offense took a quantum leap forward last year behind new offensive coordinator Greg Brandon’s spread attack. The former Bowling Green head coach nurtured freshman QB Brett Smith to a record-shattering performance when Smith’s 3,232 total yards eclipsed Andy Dalton’s freshman record. Fortunately, Brandon has elected to stay with the Cowboys after the new staff at Illinois failed to lure him away. HC Dave Christensen has tabbed Chris Tormey as his new defensive coordinator and if his work is anything close to Brandon’s, the Cowboys could end up being the second best team in the MWC this season… and maybe even give Boise a poke. Stat You Will Like: The Cowboys’ 20 losses under Christensen have been by an average of 24.15 points per game. PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite at UNLV (11/17)
NCAAF preview: Barkley's return makes USC fave to win Pac-12 It’s strange the path college football follows. Two years ago, with NCAA sanctions looming, Pete Carroll bailed out on USC for the NFL. Candles were lit with many thinking the Trojans glory days were suddenly in the rear view mirror. Yet somehow, with four-and-five-star prospects dotting the roster and experience forging its hand, USC is widely considered one of the favorites to win the BCS National Championship in 2012. Last year, because of the aforementioned ongoing NCAA suspensions, USC was ineligible to participate in the Pac-12 championship game, thus paving the way for UCLA to win the South Division and become the first team in NCAA history to participate in a bowl game and end the season with seven losses. With the sanctions lifted, USC appears the team to beat this season while Oregon figures to be breathing right down the Trojans’ necks. And surprisingly, despite being limited to just 15 recruits a year (10 less than the NCAA normally would allow), the Trojans continue to recruit blue-chip classes. Who says the University of Spoiled Children doesn’t know its way around a football field and a rulebook? Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2012 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview. North Division CALIFORNIA – (*6/6) Team Theme: LAY OFF THE AMBIEN Had Jeff Tedford’s 7-6 Bears not fallen into fourth-quarter hibernation last season where they were outscored 79-41 (after outscoring the opposition 321-232 through the first three stanzas), they could have easily proved to be more than ‘average’ in 2011. While Tedford is best known as a quarterback guru, having developed six NFL 1st-round QB’s, but let’s not forget that he has also produced a 1,000-yard rusher in nine of his 10 seasons on the Cal sidelines. Another balanced offensive attack, along with a third straight Top 25 recruiting class, figures to prevent any more fourth-quarter hi-jinks from the Berkeley bunch. Stat You Will Like: All seven Bears’ home opponents were either winners or appeared in bowl games last season. PLAY ON: vs. Washington (11/2) OREGON – (5/7) Team Theme: DUCK SEASON Three straight Pac-12 titles and a downy-soft schedule that features only one true road game through the first two months of the season would have most teams drooling with anticipation. But it’s not as easy as it appears for Chip Kelly. His ‘blur’ offense suffered serious losses, including star RB LaMichael James and its main operative, QB Darron Thomas. Thomas, 22-3 as a starter, received a heavy dose of bad advice when he was bypassed in the NFL draft and will now be replaced by electrifying freshman Marcus Mariota, the Hawaiian hurler who had a jaw-dropping spring game. Don’t despair – that click you heard was the Ducks reloading. Stat You Will Like: The Ducks were last in the nation in time of possession in 2011. PLAY ON: as a dog at USC (11/3) OREGON STATE – (*7/8) Team Theme: YOUNG BEAVERS When injuries caused projected starters to miss 59 games, Mike Riley’s crew was forced to play a bevy of freshmen and sophomores who accounted for 74 starts. At last count, 23 players made their first start while a school-record 10 true freshmen played. The good news is 27 players who started at least one game in 2011 return, including QB Sean Mannion, who tossed for over 3,300 yards while landing a spot on the all-freshmen 1st team. While we like OSU’s chances of improving, we suggest you gnaw at this: with a 2-8 SU and ATS mark in its final four games of the season the last two years (coupled with the stat below), you may want to jump on this team sooner than later. Stat You Will Like: The Beavers’ final seven opponents in 2012 all appeared in a bowl game last season. PLAY ON: at UCLA (9/22) - *KEY off BB SU losses STANFORD – (6/7) Team Theme: OUT OF LUCK When a team wins 11 games and the season was considered a downer, one can assume the expectation bar was probably set a bit too high. That was the case last year when Andrew Luck’s decision to forego the NFL fell just an Oregon loss short of a desired BCS title game appearance. What didn’t come up short was the cash register as Luck hit the lottery as the No.1 pick in this year’s draft while Cardinal backers went 10-2-1 ATS. David Shaw, the Pac-12 coach of the year, will now put his 77 percent ATS career mark on the line with RB Stefan Taylor (looking for his third straight 1,000-yard season) as his spotlight player. Stat You Will Like: The Cardinal are 24-2 ‘In The Stats’ the last two seasons, including stat wins in their last 20 games in a row. PLAY ON: as a dog at Oregon (11/17) WASHINGTON – (*6/7) Team Theme: DOG DAYS ARE OVER A pair of seven-win bowl seasons the last two years makes it official: the Huskies are back. Not that it needed confirming, but U-Dub has won more games in three years under Steve Sarkisian, than they did the previous six seasons combined before his arrival. The loss of star RB Chris Polk, who opted to leave early for the NFL, is offset by the development of QB Keith Price, who enjoyed a seven-touchdown performance against Baylor in last year’s Alamo Bowl. The main cause for concern in Seattle these days is fixing a defense that slipped seven points and 70 yards per game in 2011 and made former defensive coordinator Nick Holt the latest member of Monster.com. Stat You Will Like: The Huskies open the 2012 season against six straight opponents that all owned winning records last year. PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite at Arizona (10/20) WASHINGTON STATE – (6/7) Team Theme: UP THE WAZZU What happens when the nation’s ninth-ranked passing offense crosses paths with an offensive guru like Mike Leach? We’re about to find out as Leach lands in Pullman after getting run out of Lubbock by the James Gang in 2009. Leach is as smart as he is savvy (graduated third in his class with a law degree from Pepperdine) and his 10 winning seasons and 10 bowl appearances in 10 years at Tech has the Cougar faithful clamoring. He also inherits a defense that returns its entire line and secondary. With that being said, we say call the scoreboard police as there’ll be plenty of offense in 2012 with these contentious cats prowling the Palouse. Stat You Will Like: Leach is 20-0 SU and 17-1-2 ATS at home in lined games when his team owns a .600 or less win percentage. PLAY ON: at BYU (8/30) South Division ARIZONA – (6/8) Team Theme: TOSSIN’ AND TURNIN’ After a one-year hiatus, Rich Rodriguez has turned up in Tucson where he’ll need to overcome long odds if he wishes to avoid yet another nightmarish November (4-10-2 ATS in his career during turkey month). That’s because the Wildcats open the Rodriguez era against winning foes in seven of their first eight games, while taking on no less than nine bowlers overall. Toss in a blasé 17-14 SU and 10-19-2 ATS career mark at home against winning teams and Rodriguez’s first priority should be fixing a failing defense that slipped 120 YPG last season. Meanwhile the offense loses stud QB Nick Foles and star WR Juron Criner to the NFL. We’re guessing Rich Rod will be up all night. Stat You Will Like: Rodriguez is 9-14 SU and 6-16 ATS from Game 11 out, including 0-11-1 ATS when off an ATS loss. PLAY ON: PASS ARIZONA STATE – (4/7) Team Theme: TAILIGHTS Last year’s new uniforms and logo headed the Sun Devils in a new direction – south. Despite a roster filled with 30 seniors, six-time coach of the year Dennis Erickson was pink-slipped after a 0-5 finish to a promising 6-2 start. Enter Todd Graham, fast becoming the king of one-year stands. After his initial season at Rice, Graham was awarded a significant pay raise and contract extension, only to leave for Tulsa a few days after. And then after inking a lucrative contract with Pittsburgh last year, in which Graham said, “I spent my whole life working to get this job,” he skipped town again and mercenarily signed on with ASU. It’s no wonder Paul Daugherty of SI.com said, “This guy would make a weasel call another weasel a weasel.” Stat You Will Like: Graham is 6-0 ATS as a dog with rest. PLAY AGAINST: at Missouri (9/15) COLORADO – (4/6) Team Theme: THE PERFECT DIVIDE Whew! After playing 13 games in 13 weeks in 2011 – including five of the first seven away from the range –second-year Buffalo boss Jon Embree had to be elated when perusing this year’s itinerary. Not only do his Boulder boys get a respite in early October, their first six opponents check in with a losing record. They’d best do some damage early on as five of their final six foes ended last season above .500, including three that boast Top 15 preseason billing in 2012. While it’s worth noting that Colorado’s foes were a collective 54-72 ATS in 2011, keep in mind that of the 22 starting positions, only three saw the same player start all 13 games last season. Stat You Will Like: The Buffaloes are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS as favorites versus Pac-10/12 foes since 1999. PLAY AGAINST: at Arizona (11/10) UCLA – (*7/7) Team Theme: THAT’S A MORA The Bruins stunned the college football world when they hired former NFL head coach Jim Mora Jr. this off-season. Mora is the beneficiary of some strong recruiting classes by former UCLA boss Rick Neuheisel, who ended his four-year tenure in Los Angeles with a 21-30 mark. As expected, both of Mora’s new coordinators have NFL experience while six other members of the staff are former NFL players. Thirty of the Bruins’ 54 returning lettermen own starting experience, but the featured performer will be RB Johnathan Franklin, who has rushed for 2,689 career yards and 18 TD’s. Kevin Prince and Richard Brehaut are once more fighting for the starting QB spot. Stat You Will Like: The Bruins were the first bowl team in NCAA history to end the season two games under .500 last season. PLAY ON: vs. Utah (10/13) USC – (*9/8) Team Theme: TROJAN MAN When Heisman-hopeful QB Matt Barkley announced he was returning to USC for his senior season, head coach Lane Kiffin was ecstatic, bellowing “This is a special story. He’s the perfect Trojan. He’s Matty Trojan.” Along with WRs Robert Woods and Marquise Lee, a pair of 1,000-yard Biletnikoff award-winning and All-American candidates, the three-time Davey O’Brien semi-finalist Barkley quickly added, “The 2012 team has some unfinished business to do.” Before betting the ranch, though, you may want to hold your horses. The Men of Troy face nine bowlers, and a result of recent NCAA sanctions, quality depth is still a bit thin. Stat You Will Like: The Trojans own the best win percentage (50-10, .833) away from home the last nine years. PLAY ON: as a dog at Stanford (9/15) UTAH – (*8/6) Team Theme: BOUND TO WYNN Two shoulder surgeries (left and right) in two years have not deterred junior QB Jordan Wynn. He bulked up this off-season and the results in spring camp were apparent. “He has arms instead of No. 2 pencils hanging from his shoulders,” joked Utes’ HC Kyle Whittingham. “I haven’t felt this good in a long time,” added Wynn. That’s good news for former Utah QB Brian Johnson, who takes over as the youngest offensive coordinator in the nation. Furthermore, a cushy conference schedule finds no Oregon or Stanford, and all five Pac-12 road games are indeed winnable. This has Whittingham, Wynn and us (see below) pointing to an October 4th home date with USC. Stat You Will Like: The Utes outscored opponents, 102-65, in the fourth quarter last season. PLAY ON: as a dog vs. USC (10/4)
SEC Conference football preview By MARC LAWRENCE When projecting a national champion this year, keep this sobering thought in mind: Eight of the last ten BCS champions have owned a Top 10 ranked defense. After winning six national titles in a row and seven of the last nine, the SEC is now 8-0 in BCS title games. The conference has now won more than half of the 14 BCS championships games. Its why, as Dennis Dodd of CBSSports.com says, “They ought to just rename the system, BCSEC.” Who’s to argue? The SEC builds elite defenses with waves of athletic defensive linemen. There is so much gridiron talent in this league its no surprise that, every year since 2006, the SEC has had more players selected in the draft than any conference. A total of 54 first-round selections (nine this year) have landed in the NFL in that span, cementing their case as the most fertile football breeding ground in the land. It’s also no coincidence the SEC produced 14 of the nation’s 23 highest-paid assistant coaches last season, including seven of the top eight. So while saddling up with an SEC team to make it the BCS title game would appear to be the high percentage play, the tougher this year is question is ‘who’. Five different teams have captured the SEC championship game the last eight years, with only Alabama and Florida winning twice. The Crimson Tide, last year’s national champ, loses half of their returning starters and will be highly targeted in 2012. Bama coach Nick Saban is fully aware of what lies ahead. "That target is always on our back," Saban said. "Our players know that. If they don't, we're going to remind them every day... We need to look forward and not look in the rear-view mirror at what we did." And then there’s always LSU, this year’s preseason No. 1 team. Deeply talented as always and defensively ferocious, the Tigers relish being left out of the spotlight and figure to have plenty to prove after finishing with a better record than Alabama last season. As we like to say, “This is the SEC’s world. We just live in it.” Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2012 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview. East Division FLORIDA (7/10) Team Theme: WILL & GRACE An 0-for October for the first time since 1971, an NFL draft that included no Gators in the first three rounds for the first time since 1993 and, most importantly, the most losses in a season (6) since 1987. It’s no wonder that Will Muschamp has fallen out of grace with the Gator nation after only one year on the job. A lot of Florida’s undoing can be attributed to the fact that they’ve played 66 freshmen over the past two seasons – the most in the nation. And while their string of 21 consecutive bowl appearances doesn’t appear in jeopardy with 17 starters back on campus, spring practice has yet to clear up a very fuzzy QB picture. No pain, no ‘Gaines.’ STAT YOU'LL LIKE: The Gators are 0-7 SU and ATS as dogs the last two seasons. PLAY ON: at Florida State (11/24) GEORGIA (*6/9) Team Theme: RICHTER SCALE You can put to rest the Mark Richt ‘hot seat’ talk. Richt, who owns the third best win percentage among active Division 1-A coaches at .736 (106-38), inked a contract extension through 2016. Also returning to Athens is QB Andy Murray, who tossed a school-record 35 TD’s in 2011. In addition, Murray’s top five targets and 12 of the top 14 tacklers from the nation’s 5th-ranked stop-unit, including a pair of All-Americans, are aboard this season. Unfortunately, SEC Freshmen of the Year RB Isiah Crowell was dismissed from the team this spring, leaving a gaping hole in the backfield. Nonetheless, with only four true road games, and without Alabama or LSU dotting this year’s regular-season docket, don’t be surprised if Richt and the Dawgs scale new heights in 2012. STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Mark Richt is 44-8 SU versus non-conference opposition, including 30-1 ‘Between the Hedges.’ PLAY ON: as a dog at South Carolina (10/6) KENTUCKY (*6/5) Team Theme: HOW CAN YOU MEND A BROKEN OFFENSE? Wasn’t it the Bee Gees who started a joke, which started the whole world crying? Well, Joker Phillips’ second year on the Kentucky sidelines certainly didn’t bring many smiles. Thanks to massive graduation losses, the offense shrunk a whopping 15 points and 168 yards per game, finishing No. 118 in the nation – behind the likes of Akron, Memphis and New Mexico. Better days are ahead with QB Morgan Newton back after successful off-season shoulder surgery and prize recruit Kentucky high school 5A Player of the Year QB Jacob Russell coming to Lexington. On the flip side, though, new DC Rick Minter inherits a stop-unit that lost five of its top seven tacklers. STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Over the last five years, the Wildcats have gone 5-6, 6-6, 6-6, 6-6 and 6-6 ATS. PLAY ON: PASS MISSOURI (*4/6) Team Theme: TRANSITIONING As if they need it, the SEC gets another ‘Tiger.’ However, HC Gary Pinkel insists changes are needed if the Columbia Cats are to compete. “We have to make facility improvements. Salaries have got to get comparable to what we’re going up against in the SEC,” says Pinkel. “Anytime you go into something new you have to prove yourself… that’s our approach and that’s what we’re going to do.” Despite a rash of injuries, Missouri finished last season with four straight wins for the first time since 1965. QB James Franklin is back to lead the charge but we have a feeling that a school-record seven straight bowl appearances is suddenly on the line with Mizzou moving into a new neighborhood. STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Since 1981, the Tigers are 6-1 SU and ATS versus the SEC, including 4-0 SU and ATS during the regular season. PLAY ON: PASS SOUTH CAROLINA (*7/6) Team Theme: GETTING COCKY It was a shame to see Marcus Lattimore, arguably the best back in college football, go down with a knee injury in mid-October last season. The team had just inserted Connor Shaw as its quarterback the prior week when the tandem combined to lead a 639-yard assault on Kentucky. Shaw ended up 8-1 in his starts while leading the ‘Cocks to six SEC wins for the first time in school history. When the final dust had settled, SC finished No. 9 in the AP Poll – the first time they ever scored a Top 10 finish. With seven players back that started all 13 games in 2011, along with Lattimore and Shaw, Spurrier believes this to be his best team ever in Columbia. We agree. STAT YOU'LL LIKE: The last four ‘Mr. Football’ winners in the state of South Carolina are on the Gamecocks’ roster. PLAY ON: vs. Tennessee (10/27) TENNESSEE (*10/8) Team Theme: DOOLEY DOCTRINE Tradition goes a long way in the SEC, especially in Knoxville. However, we have a feeling that UT’S new $50 million, four-story, 145,000 square-foot training complex being built will sit just fine with the Vol faithful. Getting back to tradition, having at least one SEC all-first team selection in 37 of the past 38 seasons is one of UT’s oldest accomplishments – while the fact that Florida head coaches are just 4-7 all-time in their first visit to Neyland Stadium is one of its finest. And with 18 starters back, led by QB Tyler Bray, an entire offensive line and four who garnered all-SEC freshman honors, the OLD-timers should be ‘Dooling’, err, drooling in 2012. STAT YOU'LL LIKE: The Vols are 11-3 SU when playing a new member of the SEC. PLAY ON: vs. Kentucky (11/24) VANDERBILT (*9/7) Team Theme: FRANKLIN & BASH Offensive coordinator at Maryland from 2008-2010, James Franklin was one of the most sought after assistants in the league. Now we know why. His Commodores scored more points than any Vanderbilt team since 1915 and the Terps’ attack fell off by 9 PPG. More importantly, the ‘father of electric offenses’ steered the Commies from a two-win season to a bowl game in his first year in Nashville. And they did it the old-fashioned way – they earned it – as the offense was up 10 points and 42 yards per game while the defense improved 9 points and 96 yards per contest. And with QB Jordan Rodgers, five targets and RB Zac Stacy back in the mix, the lights stay on in Vandy. STAT YOU'LL LIKE: The Commodores are 6-1 ATS versus .667 or less opponents under Franklin. PLAY ON: PASS West Division ALABAMA (*6/5) Team Theme: ROCK OF AGES It was simply the most dominating defensive performance witnessed in college football since 1986 when Alabama last year – like Oklahoma 25 years ago – led the nation in fewest points allowed, rushing defense, passing defense and total defense in the same season. The icing on the cake was a 21-0 whitewash-win over LSU in the BCS Championship game, college football's version of a Yankees-Red Sox World Series. It was the first shutout in a title game since 1992 when Miami blanked Nebraska, 22-0, in the Orange Bowl. Unfortunately, it makes the bulls-eye on Bama’s back larger than ever. Hence, it’s no surprise to learn that the last team to allow less than 10 PPG and 250 YPG in the same season (2008 USC) was 9-4 SU and 4-9 ATS the following year. Uh oh. You get our drift. STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Defending national champions are 0-5 SU and ATS in bowl games the next season when playing off a DD ATS win. PLAY AGAINST: as favorite at LSU (11/3) ARKANSAS (*7/6) Team Theme: BAD KARMA Little did he realize, when Bobby Petrino quit on his team with three games remaining in his first season with the Atlanta Falcons to take the job at Arkansas, his karmic destiny was etched in stone. And so it was this spring when was he dismissed from Arkansas for not disclosing ‘an inappropriate relationship’ with a female employee. It fit to a tee the words written by the legendary John Lennon who said, “Instant karma’s gonna get you, gonna knock you off your feet.” Enter retread John L. Smith, who like Petrino, is a former head coach at Louisville. Let’s hope that in itself is not a dose of bad karma! The Hogs can’t afford to be taken on another bad ride. STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Both of the Razorbacks’ losses were against the nation’s No. 1 and No. 2 ranked teams last season. PLAY AGAINST: at Texas A&M (9/29) AUBURN (*7/9) Team Theme: IT CHIZ WHAT IT CHIZ In what might have been the greatest coaching effort of all last season, Gene Chizik somehow guided his Tigers to an 8-win campaign despite losing 15 starters from his 2010 national championship team – including Heisman winner and NFL Rookie of the Year QB Cam Newton. Best of all, Chiz did it despite a combined 200-yard decline on both sides of the ball, all while dressing up as underdogs in no less than eight contests. To that we say job well done! The big test comes this season when four of Auburn’s five games away from home will be against bowl teams from last year. It’s our best guess they will likely end up paying a price for 2011’s successes. STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Chizik is 10-1 ATS at home with revenge versus an opponent off a win. PLAY AGAINST: at Mississippi State (9/8) LSU (6/5) Team Theme: LES IS MORE The Tigers found out how difficult it is to defeat a quality foe two times in the same season when they faced Bama’s impregnable wall in the BCS title game last year. They must regroup this year with a cast of new characters as no less than five Bengals were selected in this year’s NFL draft. The new gunslinger in town is 6’5” QB Zach Mettenberger, a Georgia transfer who appears to be the perfect compliment to Miles’ riverboat gambler mentality. Eight home games should add to LSU’s 97-win total over the past 10 years – third most in the land behind Boise State and USC – but they may have to run through a wall on November 3rd to get back to the title game. STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Miles is 51-6 SU in night games and 24-13 SU in day games with LSU. PLAY AGAINST: vs. Mississippi State (11/10) MISSISSIPPI (*9/6) Team Theme: FAST & FURIOUS When both a team’s offense and defense have been in serious decline each of the past three seasons, you can expect changes aplenty. So it is, with the arrival of Hugh Freeze, who sparked a dramatic turnaround in his two seasons at Arkansas State – one as the head coach, the other as the offensive coordinator. The Mississippi native and former Rebels assistant has been a winner at every level he’s coached. His teams have all featured furious, high-profiled offenses. There’s plenty of room for improvement for a team that has tallied six wins in two seasons but Freeze will need to especially pick up the pace against an SEC slate that comes with all eight bowlers. STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Over the last two seasons, the Rebels are 0-8 SU and ATS versus sub .750 SEC opposition. PLAY AGAINST: at Tulane (9/22) MISSISSIPPI STATE (*8/7) Team Theme: MULLEN IT UP AND DOWN On the heels of a nine-win effort in 2010, the Bulldogs began the 2011 campaign as a team ranked in the preseason Top 20. An auspicious debut at Memphis where MSU gained a school-record 645 yards in a 45-point romp seemed to signal they were on their way. Dan Mullen’s crew then played .500-ball thereafter, losing all five games against teams that brought a winning record to the field. In order to better balance the books, Mullen will need QB Tyler Russell to step up his game to the level expected when he was a 5* recruit. He’ll also need to fill the big hole left by star DL Fletcher Cox, who took his talents to Philadelphia as a first-round selection. STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Mullen is 20-2 SU and 13-6 ATS versus sub .750 foes, and 1-15 SU and 5-11 ATS versus .750 or greater opposition. PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Texas A&M (11/3) TEXAS A&M (8/6) Team Theme: GIG ‘EM, AGGIES Unbeknownst to loyal Aggie fans, when A&M said yes to the lure of the SEC, it agreed to sever many long-standing traditions. One such tradition being the Aggie War Hymn, which recites “Goodbye to Texas University” twice in the opening verse. Little did they realize it would be so factual. Yes, it’s sad to see their Thanksgiving rivalry with Texas fall prey to the crazy world of conference expansion, but new HC Kevin Sumlin was never a part of it anyway. Sumlin and his high-powered attack should benefit a team that lost five games by a TD or less in 2011. Here’s a new tradition that we’d pay to see: Aggies and ‘Horns in the inaugural SEC/Big 12 bowl clash! STAT YOU'LL LIKE: The Aggies will face 11 teams in 2012 that owned a winning record last season. PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Florida (9/8)
NCAAF betting: Sun Belt Conference preview Slow but sure. That’s the Sun Belt’s motto. After sending three teams off to the bowling alleys each of the last two seasons, the "Fun in the Sun" guys currently own the fifth-best win percentage (.545) of the 11 FBS conferences in bowl games played since 2007, ranking ahead of the ACC, Big 10 and the PAC 12. And a recently signed contract with ESPN guarantees the Sun Belt new radiant exposure on the programming giant through the 2019 season. No less than seven games will be aired this season. The newest addition to the league is South Alabama, a team that has lost only four of its 27 games the last four seasons under head coach Joey Jones. Never shy when it comes to tackling the big boys, the Sun Belt has squared off in no less than 42 games against FBS foes that appeared in a bowl game the last two seasons. One very disturbing stat: Sun Belt teams are 9-108 in games against BCS AQ (Automatic Qualifier) teams the last five years. Granted, they may be arguably the weakest of the 11 BCS conference affiliates, and its league champ won’t be guaranteed a BCS bowl, but don’t tell them. By rule, if it can, the SBC champion will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if its champion is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS standings, or if that team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS standings and its ranking is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls. In closing, as we mentioned in our analysis last year, the league may be suffering from a bad case of sunspots but to a team they believe, sooner than later, a member of the Sun Belt Conference will someday be playing in a BCS bowl game. Don’t bet against them. They’ve still having plenty of fun in the sun. Note: Team writeups by this author excerpted from the 2012 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview. ARKANSAS STATE (*6/4) Team Theme: FAST AND FURIOUS With Hugh Freeze yet another ‘one-and-done’ coach and now the new boss at Ole Miss, new coach Gus Malzahn has large shoes to fill as ASU broke virtually every offensive record in program history en route to a 10-win campaign last year. That doesn’t faze Malzahn, who sees his fast-paced offense as being a really big advantage when it comes to coaching college football. “I'm a big fan of Chip Kelly and his offense. He's kind of on the cutting edge and he's not afraid to take chances with new things." Editor’s note: Don’t be surprised if Malzahn’s next new thing finds him and his playbook in Little Rock sometime in the very near future. STAT YOU’LL LIKE: After ranking No. 95 in total offense in 2009, ASU’s spread offense ranked No. 22 last season. PLAY ON: at Oregon (9/1) FLORIDA ATLANTIC (*7/8) Team Theme: TAKE A LOOK AT ME NOW It’s out with the old and in with the new in Boca as Howard Schnellenberger is now drawing full Social Security while Carl Pelini is roaming the FAU sidelines. While Pelini’s only experience as a head coach has been at the high school level, he immediately established a leadership council led by players, rules in the weight room that players have responded to, a new spread offense and 4-3 defense. “Things went so poorly last year, you really want to buy in,” says DB Keith Reaser of Pelini’s playbook. Though Iowa transfer Jonathon Wallace should help a ground game that mustered only 3.3 YPC in 2011, we’ll continue to window shop before we buy. STAT YOU’LL LIKE: In 2012, the Owls will play seven true road games for the ninth straight season. PLAY ON: vs. North Texas (9/29) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (7/10) Team Theme: IMAGINE THIS There’s a reason Mario Cristobal said no to offers from Pitt and Rutgers. The coach knows what’s under the hood for his football team this season. With 17 starters back from last year’s eight-win edition, Cristobal has more talent on hand than he’s ever had since taking over this fledgling program in 2007. What happens should FIU win each of its four non-conference games to start the season? The Panthers would then head into Sun Belt play with a real possibility of finishing unbeaten. It would be just their luck to see that happen to only wake up and find the Mayans were right! While the ancient ones have December 21st circled on their calendar, Mario is thinking New Year’s Day. STAT YOU’LL LIKE: After going 0-18 SU in the first three games of the season the previous six years, the Panthers went 3-0 last season. PLAY ON: at Duke (9/1) LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (*9/4) Team Theme: RING OF SUCCESS In his first year on the job, Mark Hudspeth tied a school record for most wins in a season (9) and was quickly rewarded with a five-year contract extension and double the pay (750k) in hope that he’s not lured out of Lafayette by the big boys. In a show of appreciation, Hudspeth awarded each player a Super Bowl-like ring as a memento of their New Orleans Bowl win. He may want to remember sizes as the Cajuns return nine starters on offense, led by senior QB Blaine Gautier, who tossed for 3,000 yards and 23 TD’s in 2011. Hudspeth also put the advantage back in home field as Lafayette raged to a 5-0 SU mark after dropping six of its previous eight at Cajun Field. STAT YOU'LL LIKE: The Cajuns have cashed in each of their last 13 games in a row away from home as a dog. PLAY ON: at Oklahoma State (9/15) LOUISIANA-MONROE (*8/5) Team Theme: BERRY PROMISING At first glance, it appears the Warhawks have slipped in each of the first two years under Todd Berry, going from six wins to five to four. However, Monroe improved on each side of the ball in 2011 and, despite the SU and ATS drop, teams of this ilk almost always improve dramatically the following season. Let’s not forget that in his first season Berry saw 17 freshmen and sophomores start games for a team that came within one game of bowl eligibility – or that he has developed 11 all-SBC performers since his arrival. Yes, ULM will open the season 0-3 but that should toughen them up for what promises to be a much-anticipated bowl run. STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Berry is 0-24 SU and 6-17 ATS in games off a spread win of more than 4 points. PLAY ON: at Western Kentucky (10/20) MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (*6/6) Team Theme: STOCKING UP There is something to be said about how teams perform after record-setting performances. If you think otherwise, witness the Blue Raiders’ effort last year after having gone bowling in consecutive seasons for the first time in school history. An offense that has slipped 10 PPG over the past two seasons, along with an 87-yard collapse by the defense over the same span, results in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The Blue Man Group will continue to operate from a no-huddle attack but they’ll do it behind a rebuilt offensive line. The good news is the defensive line remains intact for MTSU’s two-time Sun Belt Coach of the Year, Rick Stockstill. STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Rick Stockstill is 6-0 ATS in regular-season games when playing off a SU underdog win. PLAY ON: vs. Troy (11/24) NORTH TEXAS (*9/5) Team Theme: OFF THE STEROIDS Now that former coach Todd Dodge is gone, it's time for the not-so Mean Green to wean itself off Dodge's JUCO-transfusion and onto Dan McCarney's recruits as this program continues to rebuild itself from the ground up. This year they’ll have to do it without the services of star RB Lance Dunbar and his backup, who together combined for 1,521 yards in 2011. The Green will also be minus the services of 27 seniors who graduated from last year's roster, including three starters from the secondary. The good news is QB Derek Thompson, who battled through injuries last year, appears fully healthy while his backups are suddenly experienced. STAT YOU'LL LIKE: McCarney is 3-18 ATS as a conference road dog of 13 or more points. PLAY AGAINST: at Middle Tennessee State (10/27) SOUTH ALABAMA (*5/9) Team Theme: SMOOTH SPREAD Established in 2007, Bo Derek would be proud of a South Alabama football program that has moved along nicely, playing its first game in 2009 before recording a perfect 10-0 season in 2010. Defense should, once again, be the strong suit as nine starters are back from a unit that ranked No. 16 in the FCS last season. Offensively, the Jaguars will be unveiling a new spread-attack, handing the keys to sophomore QB C.J. Bennett. Though not eligible for the Sun Belt title until 2013, games played this year will count as conference games for SBC foes. This season may not go as smooth as the past few (see stat below), but the Jaguars have earned FBS status. Perfect. STAT YOU'LL LIKE: The Jaguars are 23-2 SU all-time versus non-FBS opponents. PLAY ON: at NC State (9/15) TROY (*10/6) Team Theme: THE ART OF REBOUNDING According to Bill Connelly of SB Nation.com, one of college football’s most illuminating reporters, Troy’s down season last year is an indicator of good things to come in 2012. We agree, as the Trojans are a fully qualified ‘Mission Team’ with a lot to prove this season. The descent started early last year when three starters were declared academically ineligible, including QB Corey Robinson’s top two targets. All three return this season. In fact, nine of Troy’s top 10 receivers are on hand this year. And remember, despite the loss of his main weapons, Robinson still managed to air it out for over 3,400 yards and 21 TD’s in 2011. Off the worst season of his 22-year tenure, expect a big Blakeney bounce-back. STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Blakeney has had 19 players picked in the NFL draft in his 22 years with Troy, including DeMarcus Ware and Osi Umenyiora. PLAY ON: vs. La-Lafayette (9/8) WESTERN KENTUCKY (*9/8) Team Theme: FROM ZERO TO… When the Hilltoppers hired Willie Taggert as their new head coach in 2010, little did they realize that their former star quarterback from the mid 1990’s would lead them from zero to seven wins in two short years. Despite the seven victories, the Toppers were snubbed of a bowl bid. Taggert insists there are no sour grapes – just motivation. “After last year, we’re not gonna make any excuses,” said Taggert. “That’s on us. We can’t blame anyone else.” We wouldn’t blame them for taking a step back, especially with the graduation loss of featured RB Bobby Rainey, who owns every school rushing record while toting the ball nearly 31 times per game last year. STAT YOU'LL LIKE: The Hilltoppers are 9-35 SU versus FBS opponents. All nine victories have all been under Taggert the last two seasons. PLAY AGAINST: at La-Lafayette (11/17)