Right, but, it's ~50 days until no more hospitalizations are observed. These people were out and about 2-3 weeks after their JnJ shots. The CDC JnJ vaccine web page says 2 weeks until "max protection" (whatever that means) is observed. That's really bad communication that people are depending on. I'm not arguing its effectiveness, I'm arguing what the clarity of the timeline being presented to people should be
Like, yeah, okay, that could be a breakthrough case, but it's much more likely given everything that the behavior of going out and stuff changed to be more in-person-social based on bad info about the effectiveness timeline. Its especially important to not make that mistake in communication now since states are seeing a bunch of surges right now
Sao Paulo authorities justify the reopening by pointing out that occupancy rates in intensive care units in the state have fallen from crisis-level 90.5% to 88.6%. "This measure clearly shows that the effort made in recent weeks is beginning to give results," said Vice-Governor Rodrigo Garcia on a press conference on April 9.
Looking at the US, you seem to be about where Israel were in late February given your vaccination rates. Seasonality and more people being infected previously (not sure what the relative true infections would be in Israel, but I’d guess the US was higher) may speed you up. Israel saw their significant decline in cases start from then, though you guys have already seen pretty big declines. Alternatively, the size of the US and vaccine hesitancy may slow you down. Michigan looks to be close to or at its peak at least.
Do you know if there is one of these graphs for each vaccine? Weirdly, this morning I was wondering if this data was out there.
I think Moderna/Pfizer are supposed to reach max. protection ~2 weeks after your 2nd shot. But, unlike J&J, those vaccines were not run through trials with the current variants in circulation. ETA: Probably best to be conservative on the tail end and not jump back into normal activities just b/c 2 weeks have passed.
Probably? Thats from the FDA EUA report. Im sure there are moderna and pfizer ones on the fda site somewhere https://www.fda.gov/media/146265/download
TBF trials are going on now and diff studies in diff areas are publishing results every couple weeks or so, like the israeli pfizer study, though yeah there is a very low incidence of the S.A. variant there i think
The main thing I would want to avoid is getting a vaccine and then becoming too lax w masks/distancing/etc. before my body had fully reacted to the vaccine.
Exactly. That's why I got fussy about the timeline thing, because I was legit like looking to be more social after 3 weeks of the JnJ shot, and the JnJ lit does NOT match clearly with the CDC JnJ shot page. I really don't want to short change that immunity-building time
Like, we made it this far. I'm not gonna fuck up at the home stretch because some assholes at the CDC aren't writing shit clearly on their info pages Edit: well, me personally, but also people need to be aware of what the results actually say wrt protection
I remember the good ole days when there was like a 5-7 day span where reading this thread gave me hope. Was fun while it lasted.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/n...italizations-now-exceed-fall-peak/7192698002/ "I think if we tried to vaccinate our way out of what is happening in Michigan, we will be disappointed that it took so long for the vaccine to work — to actually have the impact." The comment contradicted the approach of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's administration, which has declined to have her state health department director issue epidemic orders to shutter indoor dining, in-person high school classes or to end youth sports. On Friday, the Democratic governor urged a two-week pause in these areas. Several restaurants and schools indicated they wouldn't make changes to their operations. Cool cool stuff
I mean it's like the poster (blanking) said - lockdown is dead politically. A lot of us don't want to be here but our officials are in an impossible situation of not being able to effectively enact lockdowns that a significant enough segment of the population will revolt against.
The absolute worst part of this disease is that it doesn’t only hurt those who disregard it. All of the collateral damage around these assholes is the tragedy. Because it would be a-okay for anti-vaccine and anti-mask people to die from their own stupidity.
No that’s not good at all. So we’re going to end up at what percent vaccinated now as a country? I know it was a slim chance of us even getting near the herd immunity numbers with the J&J vaccine, so now that the anti-vax has this to run with they’re never coming back
I think any holdouts for this long had their doubts so I’d say it’s going to sway quite a bit of people on the fence.
millions will likely not get the vaccine now because of this. Anti-vax will use this to push their agenda and plenty of idiots will eat it up. Thousands more will get very sick and die. One of 7 million died and we don’t even know for sure it was because of this. this is what happens when academics who assume that people will logically look at all the information and make an informed decision like they would are making decisions. The average American follows their Facebook feed for news and this is going to be a major catalyst for vaccine hesitancy turning into people just not getting it. Also will ruin the thin chance of a vaccine passport IMO.
I've already had 2 on the fence Trumpers in our family say they aren't getting vaccinated now. This is going to be catastrophic.
Small chance for covid death so fuck a mask / the cdc. Even smaller chance of adverse reaction from vaccine so I’m not taking it. Not my point of view btw. I’m double pfizered
Damnit. This just gives more ammo to the antivax crew. I've already seen the same dipshits who said Covid was "only 0.1% chance of death so I'm not worried about it", hyping the fear about the 1 in 6 million JNJ death
Seriously how fucking stupid are the CDC? 100% chance they let this vaccine resume after a couple of weeks, but the pr damage will be impossible to come back from.
There's not a company on the planet that would stop producing a drug with that low of an instance of potential side effects. It's statistically irrelevant.
I’m just saying I’ve told hesitant people to trust the science when it comes to the vaccines and I’ll apply the same logic here...don’t think it would be pulled without good reason.
Most optimistic take I can cling to is that it would look way worse and do more harm if they didn’t hit pause. By taking the most cautious option it keeps the appearance of safety first and transparency that are the biggest hurdles for those who are reluctant to get the vaccine. Every suspected occurrence of clotting is going to be the headline for every news outlet so trying to figure the clotting now prevents some erosion of trust. Probably fucked regardless because people can’t do math.