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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by shaolin5, Jan 20, 2020.
Do our vaccines still work?
We should be getting data on it within the month. Clinical trials were held in SA so they should be able to generate data with the quickness
So we fucked?
Presuming they're quarantining in their rooms like they should be and this 60 YO wasnt just a long developing case who had it before coming to the hotel, maybe?
Still a lot to learn. Beginning news isnt positive
This might be the real deal if its getting this reaction this quickly
Looks bad, todd
Every N starts with 1
...or 0, whatever.
I feel like all the travel restrictions are how the UK and other European countries reacted to the original South African variant. If it's busting through booster immunized people then I'll be worried. Another note is that South Africa has very poor vaccination coverage, something like only 24% of their population are fully vaccinated.
Won’t make any difference if it is as transmissible as suggested. If it is in Hong Kong, it’s in the U.K. and then elsewhere.
Quick travel restrictions are the order of the day now if it is a third world or developing country. Won’t make any difference but is optics.
Pinning my hopes on "won't outcompete delta" for those of us that need plain English but it says enough that everyone's worried.
Eyyyyy good news
Ahhh… I have a doubt
at this point and for the US only, is it really?
I'm a dick and tired of the anti vax assholes
Belgium already have cases too. It’s probably been around for a while.
From someone I’d trust doing a summary of that Twitter thread posted here yesterday
Treatments like monoclonal antibodies are probably fucked.
- Immunity based on previous infections (GBD hErD ImMunity fuckwittery) will be insufficient and reinfections are likely in unvaccinated.
- Vaccine based immunity will probably be reduced but vaccines will still confir strong protection against severe disease, may be a slight increase in symptomatic breakthrough inections.
- Mutations point towards adaptation focused on binding affinity to ACE2 more than transmissibility. There are mutations present that have shown an increase in transmissibility before in Beta and Delta but nothing to really suggest it is 500% more transmissable as some tabloid papers are reporting. Nu might be outcompeteing based on founders theory, low vaccination rates in SA and comparitively low Delta numbers.
It must be pretty spread since apparently the case was a woman who travelled to Belgium from Egypt via Istanbul and was not near Southern Africa recently.
If you take this as the worst case, it really isn’t too bad if the vaccines continue to prevent severe illness. It’s all about getting vaccinated at this point and this should actually be a reminder to the West that we need to do so much better in developing countries on vaccinations.
One of the lead investigators of the new variant has told the BBC that the virus is "transmitting at great speed" in parts of South Africa.
Prof Tulio de Oliveira, a virologist and Director of the Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation in South Africa, says that infections in Gauteng province - which contains the country's largest city, Johannesburg - appear to be "amplified".
"We hope that we are wrong on this," he tells the BBC's Newsday programme, adding that teams are trying to establish how transmissible the new variant is.
He says, however, that he expects existing vaccines to continue to provide some protection.
"We hope - and expect - that vaccines will protect against hospitalisations. We still think that, at the moment, vaccines are our best weapon."
Yup. Seems as likely they caught it in Belgium as travelling too as they are two weeks out from travel.
I’d be a bit more relaxed about this one now tbh if it has spread far and wide. The European Commission posted this graphic this week for recent deaths- vaccines are the answer still. Ireland has the highest rate in adults in the EU, hospitalisations are stable and deaths remain low. Cases are high - so even if it was this new variant driving that the vaccines are still doing their job.
that’s twice now a new variant has first been found in south africa, right?
is there any theories as to why some/more talked about variants seem to first be spotted there?
They have very low vaccination rates, to start.
They have really good genomic sequencing.
I believe that HIV means that many are immuno compromised.
Not to get too far over my skis but two reasons.
One, SA has a very robust infrastructure for variant reporting allowing them to identify and sequence these variants of concern more quickly than other places.
Second, it appears that a few of these concerning variants mutate in HIV/AIDS patients that really struggle to clear the virus. Unfortunately, HIV infection rates in South Africa (and the surrounding countries) are incredibly high, leading to more chances for these types of mutations.
I was exposed (boosted on 11/6). i just looked at the CDC guidelines, but wanted to make sure I’m correct in not needing to quarantine but mask indoors and then take a test in 5-7 days?
If vaxed yes - and not showing any symptoms
Lmao we never learn
What's the worst that could happen? ^
Is this a new South African variant from the one mentioned a time or two this summer? Also, down goes the dow
It may have mutated from a variant llike that
we are so flat footed and slow to decide . same w
The anti viral pills
That's because deciding quickly might mean we may lose a few bucks, and us Americans can't EVER let that happen.
They have some of the best viral genomic sequencing in the world
The down side is you’re punishing a country for having robust viral sequencing capabilities, something in the US we can’t bother with apparently. They may not be so quick to report next time.
Are travel bans really going to do much? This has already been found in a bunch of different places. Containment ship has seemingly sailed like two years ago.
Might help you get to the spring?
Like pperc said, if we don't have increased capacity for genomic surveillance and also masking/strategic lockdowns/vaccinations (>65-70%), then travel bans will only slow down the inevitable spread.
My assumption is this is fairly far spread if it breaks through fully vaccinated people like Delta (i.e. asymptomatic or mild symptoms). No way everyone who only feels mildly ill immediately quarantines themselves.
And a pretty robust and vigilant public health machine. Being the first to detect a novel variant doesn't mean that it originated inside your borders
could be more genetic diversity in the hosts as well but I’m not sure why that would matter