Arkansas will be joining the 10,000 cases club in the next week. The County I live in went from around 80 cases to over 800 in less than two weeks. I’m so glad we are fully open right now we gotta get that haircut and massage.
Uh oh, FL reported 50 new deaths. That double digit number doesn't start with a 4, that's highly concerning.
Aaaand boom goes the dynamite. 1,579 new cases for AZ. But it's all good, the sun and the heat (see: 95 degrees at 9:19 in the morning on a cloudy day) will kill the 'rona real good-like. Edit: More than double the new (PCR and serology combined) tests reported, so that has something to do with it. Until you divide the maths. I believe that any positives from serology tests would not tick up the "new cases" category, right? So that means the 1,579 new cases came from the 14,110 PCR tests, if you have it now. That's a positive rate of over 11%. Even if I'm wrong and the new cases DO include antibody cases, that's a positive rate of over 8%, while the total positive rate up to this point is 5.9%. Bad news.
There are Two Americas https://www.augustachronicle.com/ne...a-area-and-georgia-see-jump-in-covid-19-cases
Looking at the Ohio trends.... Ohio really started opening up on May 18. On today's dashboard.... cases, ICU admissions, hospitalizations and deaths all lower than 21 days ago. I'm sure there will be ups and downs over the summer, but good that the spike hasn't happened so far.
I think it’s because a lot of big businesses are continuing to have employees work from home, gyms and restaurants that are opening are at least making an effort even if not completely according to CDC guidelines, and a lot of responsible people are still being cautious. Even though Georgia technically opened up a month ago, it didn’t snap back to normal and businesses / society still aren’t operating completely normally. Big potential for sports and colder weather to take us off the rails in the Fall/Winter. I do agree it’s at least somewhat encourage we haven’t spiked egregiously though
Pretty wild from Barons “U.S. Credit Card Debt Down To $769 Billion For the week ended May 20, the credit card debt U.S. banks held on their balance sheets was down from $860 at the beginning of March. The last time Americans owed that little credit card debt was at the beginning of 2018. The reason credit card debt has shrunk so rapidly is that Americans have cut their spending even faster than they have lost their jobs. The 10.5% drop in the space of 11 weeks is the steepest decline in American credit card balances on record. Credit card debt fell by 22% during the Great Recession, but it took more than a year” Americans are paying off debt at a record pace but it’s being offset by a rise in delinquencies in mortgage, credit cards, and auto loans. It’s a weird combo, I don’t know what to make of it. I’m starting to think the economy is going to explode in Q3 driven by consumer spending
I've spent so much less the last few months: mass transit, gas, restaurants, bars. My only expense besides food and utilities has been alcohol to drink at home.
If so, regular folk won’t see a dime of that for a while after since hiring lags. And companies won’t announce Q3 profits to see a market spike. Hopefully it’s mainly post-election news.
If the reopening causes an upswing in daily new cases it won’t show up noticeably in the data until the June 15-20 timeframe. If it doesn’t, it more than likely means the great majority of people are being smart about social distancing.
Daily cases are back in the 20k+ and rising. Are we going to end up back with 2k deaths per day in the next couple weeks?
Saw a post from a friend and they were at a little league game with the stands all packed. Arkansas is going to get hit hard.
Haircut/cocktail at my favorite barbershop/bar yesterday and will be dining around town all weekend in ATL the goat
Thank you dtx. I’ve already been dining out around my block here in Midtown but it’s a good time to venture out into other parts of this great city
I don't think people realize how bad Q2 is going to be - and the knock on effect we will see in Q3 (high unemployment, credit defaults, foreclosures, etc.). Couple that with continued COVID pressure, a fractious political climate and widespread civil unrest - and no amount of pent up consumer demand is going to salvage a rough few quarters ahead.
depends on fed and congress stimulus. High stock market/misleading jobs numbers could make republicans drag their feet on more stimulus which will he felt in late summer/fall. Maybe not in the stock market but in the real economy.
I think we need to see much higher daily cases to get the death rate that high again. We didn’t know as much as we do now about the virus, our largest city had a major cluster and got overwhelmed and we weren’t testing as much so we likely had far more cases than reported. Not saying 2,000 deaths a day isn’t possible. I just think we need a good bit more cases a day to see that happen. The protests will be a big test of this. If we don’t see a major increase in cases I think we see a major increase in complacency which could cause another run in the fall.
Topol posted this re: Japan's cluster-based approach. They did not conduct mass testing. Article https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/10900000/000635891.pdf Spoiler: Cluster approach Spoiler: News article Japan's main page https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/newpage_00032.html
AZ just hit its highest day total since the pandemic started. Granted test is also way up. Tested negative on Friday, also antibody testing was negative, had a really bad cold in March.
Friday's report showed that the government continues to struggle with how it classifies millions of out-of-work Americans. The Labor Department admitted that government household survey-takers mistakenly counted about 4.9 million temporarily laid-off people as employed. The government doesn't correct its survey results for fear that will look like political manipulation. https://www.startribune.com/us-unemployment-drops-unexpectedly-to-a-still-high-13-3/571043052/
The unemployment rate "error" left about 3% off the rate. Meaning last month's rate should have been over 19%. The U6 rate, which includes people working part time that want to work full time, would have been up to 25% last month. This is the measure republicans screamed was the real rate during the Obama years but ignore now.