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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by shaolin5, Jan 20, 2020.
i may or may not have flown domestically a day later for vacation
the really sad thing, as ever, is the 400,000+ suicides that we've had
The evidence has confirmed that my estimate of 100,000 infected in early March was, if anything, laughably conservative.
It was running hog-wild by March.
Weirdly, when people selfishly assumed they would be part of the 99.99% (inaccurate) who would be fine, their balloons all popped and they walked around like nothing happened... and then hundreds of thousands more died. Your position is indefensible, mr. yeehaw.
I also had probably my in retrospect worst post ever, back before I truly appreciate the entire scope of severity and how wide reaching it would be, I also predicted that it would be better for the US economy in the long run if the pandemic only killed a bunch of 80+ year olds. This was January/February ish I think so before the actual IFR was known and just based on early Chinese numbers how almost all their hospitalizations and deaths were 80+ old smoking males, but it was an all-time horrific take.
Around the time when I wrote those posts, we had already started wearing masks in public, stopped going out, and limited our interactions w friends to outdoors-only.
Seeing the writing on the wall =\= yolo-ing the situation.
the early days of our discussions on the value of viral testing were fun and still would be no doubt!
and my point is the claims made due to this were that we'd reach infection herd immunity quickly, the IFR would end up being minuscule, and it'd all "pop" as you said
your continued defensiveness is cute tho
I’ve waffled on herd immunity being an effective strategy and criticized it as a goal in this very thread.
I readily admit that my reading of the political winds and public will, as well as my policy predictions, were woefully wrong.
But citing my logical inferences about the disease that proved to be largely accurate is a bizarrely strange way to offer evidence of my idiocy, IMO.
I made some hyperbolic and autistically callous comments about the situation early on, and I’ve apologized multiple times for that. That said, my overall message on the topic has not been that COVID is a hoax, or not serious, or whatever other “denier” stances you want to ascribe to me. Disagreeing over what we should do in response to the disease is not evidence that I think it’s fake or unimportant.
oh i know you've apologized for being an idiot early on compared to the people like dallasdawg who just left the board
but there's also discussions of scale, why people who argued ITS EVERYWHERE ALREADY in the denier community were directionally accurate but by scale still way off
TBF, I was extremely skeptical of the idea of having a viral DFA panel for a wide array of types of virus that was somehow only going to cost <$5 a person
This story keeps getting crazier. Many people hate desantis on a national level so I’m expecting this story to go national soon
Maybe Redav should be quote dragging those people rather than the guy who accurately predicted the National Academy of Science’s findings 6 months in advance.
You're a dickhead.
I prefer the term “cockhelmet.”
Would still be worth it :)
Pfizer going to one dose could be a fucking game changer. Doesn’t help me since I’m on that Moderna life though.
What’s so anger inducing is that this fuck is going to coast to re-election
pfizer 93% at 1 dose and 95% at 2 doses? If that’s true and proven they need to change that to 1 dose ASAP ask ramp this shit up
pperc should get excited about this or is this not not coming from a reputable source?
Both sound like good news. Anything issued yet about how effective vaccine is about reducing spread?
the person does cite their sources in the tweet thread
does clarify at the end the rec to go to single dose isn't from Pfizer directly but a team they funded to do research
Another question - not sure if this is how viruses work or not, but if these vaccines are effective against all but SA variant, does that just become the dominant strain almost immediately and grow like crazy due to reduced competition from other variants or does it kinda just do what it was going to do regardless
Original study authors reply:
"The authors reply: In response to Skowronski and De Serres: we would like to emphasize that alternative dosing regimens of BNT162b2 have not been evaluated. The decision to implement alternative dosing regimens resides with health authorities; however, we at Pfizer believe that it is critical for health authorities to conduct surveillance on implemented alternative dosing schedules to ensure that vaccines provide the maximum possible protection."
Seems like something that merits surveillance but has insufficient data to make a call at this point. The error bars were pretty large on the 2 week analysis - not surprising given the study wasn't set up to evaluate that - but the first dose probably also deserves some of the "credit" for illness prevention post-first two weeks of dose 2.
just give me my vaccine
is that so much to ask
We are now scheduling/calling all 65+ year olds to be vaccinated in my state. Already have 70+ done, HCW/front lines/nursing homes all done. Add into that one of the highest natural immunity percentages in the country and our outbreak is pretty much done in the state barring new variants fucking it all up.
so I believe that they are bound to what was in the trials and what the fda approved
they would have to get re-approved after the fda studies the single shot effectiveness
this is from last month https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pre...authorized-dosing-schedules-covid-19-vaccines
Yeah the risks associated with one dose would be that your antibody levels drop off quicker. I'm all for them just delaying the second dose an extra 3 or 4 weeks to let supply really build up though. Sadly I doubt they'll recommend that any quicker than just eliminating the second dose. It seems like each company wants to resubmit for FDA approval so that will take time.
My wife is getting her second Moderna shot today. She already took off tomorrow in case she has a sore arm tomorrow.
What are typical symptoms people have been having from Moderna? Quick google says chills, but I prefer to use tmb as my source.
prisma texted me to confirm my 2nd shot monday afternoon
Both companies' second shots are often giving people nausea, slight fever, chills, and fatigue.
I'm getting the 2nd Pfizer on Tuesday. Already scheduled myself off of work. My wife had severe body aches, low fever, nausea and severe fatigue. Hit for the cycle.
DeSantis reserving vaccines for the two richest zip codes in Manatee County is just another level of corruption
Don't know how up to date the NYT vaccine tracker is but a lot of states sitting at 80+% of doses used. 38 states have used 75% of more. Lets fucking get going Biden.
Mom and Dad are getting their first shots today. Have only seen them 3 times in the last year, since Dad has some heart and lung issues. Might’ve shed a tear when they told me last night.
Pretty sure it’s a combination of the crazy weather around the country wrecking havoc on supply chains and actually waiting on delivery from the manufacturers. We’re up to over 1.5 million shots per day at this point and sounds like they are hoping to get to 3+
add: body aches
Onset was roughly 12hrs from shot. All completely passed by 36hrs. My arm is still a little tender but that’s it.
so that letter about Pfizer isn't from the company, it is from an external 3rd party analysis. Unfortunately, that's not going to get FDA to move the needle.
edit: which others mention later in the thread, my bad
J&J doesn't have a lot on hand, but still promises to reach 100M by June. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-white-house-idUSKBN2AH2DD
"(Reuters) - Johnson & Johnson has only a few million doses of its experimental COVID-19 vaccine in its inventory even as likely U.S. regulatory authorization is only a few weeks away, White House officials said on Wednesday.
J&J remains committed to providing 100 million doses by June but deliveries are likely to be “back-end loaded” as J&J works with the U.S. government to boost supply, Jeffrey Zients, the White House’s COVID-19 response coordinator, said during a press call....
J&J said in a statement it intends to immediately begin distributing doses upon U.S. authorization and expects to supply 100 million doses to the United States in the first half of 2021."
Johnson and Johnson makes vaccines like I used to do my homework.
Homework Timeline for Assignment received Monday and due the following Monday:
Monday: open Word file, type title and name on top, save file, go to bar.
Tuesday: go to bar.
Wednesday: do 45 minutes of internet research, go to bar.
Thursday: go to bar.
Friday and Saturday: enjoy the weekend.
Sunday: watch Johnny Dangerously on Comedy Central.
Sunday night until class starts on Monday: do assignment.
My mom got a Covid test Saturday at a Walgreens in Tampa. Still no results. How are we at 5+ days to get results back a year into this thing? It’s unbelievable.
I made a joke about J&J promising 100 million doses by June, but the delivery will be "back-end loaded."
LadyPokes got Pfizer back in late Dec and mid Jan and we picked up some home antibody tests to see if it registered anything. Nothing after the first, immediate positive after the second. She had the infamous strong response to the second.
Her breast milk also tested positive for antibodies after the second, although there’s a lot of speculation that it might not be able to pass the baby’s GI barrier.
oh lol, i couldn't follow, sorry.
i suspect what they are doing is hard. promises are difficult to keep.