I’m not an epidemiologist and I don’t have the data but I don’t see how your missing the fact that they’re not at high risk of death if they’re not at high risk of getting it. My parents are home, get groceries delivered, don’t see anyone other than masked outdoor walks. Maybe the occasional trip to the dentist or doctor. If a receptionist at a hospital or dental care facility is stuck in a room with 100 people per day (at least one is probably infected), she contracts it, then sits in a room with 100 people over a few days before realizing it, a lot of them are old, like my parents would be on that occasional trip. That person getting vaccinated means more than than 300 people she could expose even if she’s not likely to die comparatively. Of those 300 people that do get infected can spread it more too it amplifies. So even if she’s 100x less likely to die than that 65 year old she could be the stem of hundreds or thousands of infections. If my parents did get it they likely wouldn’t infect anyone either so it stops with them. The odds of them dying are higher if they get it but if it’s just the two of them that get it, than like 5-10% chance they may pass. But if a dental receptionist infests 10 who infect 10 each who infect 10 each, how many people die if 1000 people get infected?
I’ll try the respond to two of your posts. First, it’s NOT every state who had followed the epidemiological path that you say they all have followed. Utah has prioritized front line health care workers, followed by first responders, followed by teachers, followed by the elderly in long term health care facilities, followed by 75+, followed by 65+. FL obviously has not adopted the path you advocate. If you documented what every State is doing you would find a huge disparity. My original premise was supportive of the idea that “if the goal is to reduce mortality, then vaccinate those at the highest risk of mortality”. Our current predicament is not the same as when Smallpox and Polio were successfully defeated. Both were multi-generational scourges afflicting humanity. Covid-19 has been with us less than a year. We have the science to know more about it and to know it faster. And that science says, “if you want to reduce mortality fast, then vaccinate the senior citizens”. This doesn’t limit itself to those in long term care facilities. It is inclusive of all of those 65+.
What science? If you’re worried about mortality rate vs infections, well why are you worried about that? Total deaths is the more important metric... reducing spread reduces total deaths the most
My main concern is mortality. My whole discourse is about mortality. 80% of mortality is in the 65+ age group. Vaccinate them NOW. Reducing spread by vaccinating other age groups EVENTUALLY reduces death in the 65+ group. Why wait? Vaccinate the 65+ group NOW.
no it doesn’t EVENTUALLY do that. It prevents them from getting it immediately...which means they won’t die of covid because they never got exposed... and again there’s not enough vaccines for 65+ to go around nor will all get it. It's not as if you can vaccinate someone who already has it and prevent them from dying...
I know when the vaccine first was approved they still said they’re unsure if getting the vaccine is successful against catching covid and being contagious, it was more so proven you wouldn’t get sick if you did catch it. Is that still a concern or has it been proven with the vaccine you are unlikely to catch covid?
That’s not what the science says. Again, age is not equivalent to highest risk of dying. It’s only equivalent to highest risk of dying if infected. You’re refusing to try to understand this so I’m going to stop trying. I think I’ve explained it enough ways at this point and you’re just repeating yourself without processing what I’m telling you. And not to be a jerk but you don’t even know the priority of your own state. https://coronavirus-download.utah.gov/Health/COVID-19_Vaccination_Plan.pdf long term care facilities are before first responders and teachers.
It’s unproven right now, and leans more you’re less transmissible. It’s dangerous though to assume that just because you’ve been vaccinated means you can’t still spread it. Still best practice to wear a mask. Per Dr. Gottlieb, we will know in about a month.
So you’re stance is based on the calculated risk that it is indeed significantly reducing spread? Hopefully it is determined to be true.
also it’s what, only 90% effective? So, that 10% means a lot where we’re at. So yeah definitely keep doing that until cases come down
These vaccine shortages are an absolute tragedy. My expectations were a good bit lower than the experts and it looks like we will still fall far below my expectations. Hillsborough county (Tampa) had their second rollout of appointments for senior citizens. 9000 spots. 200,000 people were logged in trying to get an appointment. Desantis has also opened appointments to anyone from any part of the country so people may be trying to schedule appointments and then just flying down to Florida if they aren’t in a risk group in their home state but fall into one in Florida.
I think Moncef Slauoi is underrated as bad at his job. Azar and Birx got their fair share, but Slauoi completely botched his messaging. Don't sell 20 million doses, if you know our federal response is going to be this poor. No surprise Biden let Slauoi go. Biden too has now got to hit that 100 million people vaccinated in 100 days.
there is 0 chance we hit 100 million in 100 days. My expectation is 65-75. Reach goal of 85 if they get some things cleaned up. No way it’s 100 million.
he's a personal friend of mine, so it's hard for me to comment... but i didn't agree with his lofty, aggressive promises. I told my wife, i'll believe it when I see it. he's a very good vaccine developer/scientist. he's not a politician or a marketer. he was leaving regardless if Biden kept him on or not, though. just FYI. Even if Trump won, he was done this month.
Wait, so are there no where near the number of doses that Pfizer and Moderna said would be available by January or did they just make some shit up about a stockpile and try to sell it?
Got my first shot 2 minutes ago. This is what it looks like here (for those curious). I am currently sitting on the bleachers for 20 minutes
WaPo article Spoiler Vaccine reserve was already exhausted when Trump administration vowed to release it, dashing hopes of expanded access States were anticipating a windfall after federal officials said they would stop holding back second doses. But the approach had already changed, and no stockpile exists. By Isaac Stanley-Becker and Lena H. Sun Jan. 15, 2021 at 1:06 p.m. EST When Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar announced this week that the federal government would begin releasing coronavirus vaccine doses held in reserve for second shots, no such reserve existed, according to state and federal officials briefed on distribution plans. The Trump administration had already begun shipping out what was available beginning at the end of December, taking second doses directly off the manufacturing line. Now, health officials across the country who had anticipated their extremely limited vaccine supply as much as doubling beginning next week are confronting the reality that their allocations will remain largely flat, dashing hopes of dramatically expanding access for millions of elderly people and those with high-risk medical conditions. Health officials in some cities and states were informed in recent days about the reality of the situation, while others are still in the dark. Because both of the vaccines authorized for emergency use in the United States are two-dose regimens, the Trump administration’s initial policy was to hold back second doses to protect against the possibility of manufacturing disruptions. But that approach shifted in recent weeks, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter. Inside the cold, complex world of getting a covid-19 vaccine into arms After making a vaccine for the coronavirus, you have to get it to the masses. But that’s not so easy for a so-called cold chain vaccine, requiring exact temps. (The Washington Post) These officials were told that Operation Warp Speed, which is overseeing the distribution of vaccines, stopped stockpiling second doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine at the end of last year. The last shots held in reserve of Moderna’s supply, meanwhile, began shipping out over the weekend. AD The shift, in both cases, had to do with increased confidence in the supply chain, so that Operation Warp Speed leaders felt they could reliably anticipate the availability of doses for booster shots — required three weeks later in the case of the Pfizer-BioNTech product and four weeks later under Moderna’s protocol. But it also meant there was no stockpile of second doses waiting to be shipped, as Trump administration officials suggested this week. Azar, at a Tuesday briefing, said, “Because we now have a consistent pace of production, we can now ship all of the doses that had been held in physical reserve.” He explained the decision as part of the “next phase” of the nation’s vaccination campaign. Those in line for their second shots are expected to get them on schedule since states are still getting regular vaccine shipments. But state and local officials say they are angry and bewildered by the shifting directions and changing explanations of supply. AD The health director in Oregon, Patrick M. Allen, was so disturbed that he wrote Azar on Thursday demanding an explanation. “Earlier today, we became concerned when we discovered there were no additional doses available for allocation,” he said in the letter, which was reviewed by The Washington Post. On a call with Perna earlier the same day, Allen wrote, the four-star Army general had “informed us there is no reserve of doses, and we are already receiving the full allocation of vaccines.” “If true, this is extremely disturbing, and puts our plans to expand eligibility at grave risk,” Allen added. “Those plans were made on the basis of reliance on your statement about “releasing the entire supply” you have in reserve. If this information is accurate, we will be unable to begin vaccinating our vulnerable seniors on Jan. 23, as planned.” AD HHS spokesman Michael Pratt confirmed in an email that the final reserve of second doses had been released to states for order over the weekend but did not address Azar’s comments this week, saying only, “Operation Warp Speed has been monitoring manufacturing closely, and always intended to transition from holding second doses in reserve as manufacturing stabilizes and we gained confidence in the ability for a consistent flow of vaccines.” He also said states have ordered only about 75 percent of what is available to them. Azar’s comments followed a Jan. 8 announcement by President-elect Joe Biden’s transition team that his administration would move to release all available doses, rather than holding half in reserve for booster shots. Biden’s advisers said the move would be a way to accelerate distribution of the vaccine, which is in short supply across the country. AD When Azar embraced the change four days later — after initially saying it was shortsighted and potentially unethical to put people at risk of missing their booster shots — he did not say the original policy had already been phased out, or that the stockpile had been exhausted. Signaling to states that they would soon see expanded supply, he also urged them to begin vaccinating adults 65 and older and those under 64 with a high-risk medical condition. Officials in some states embraced that directive, while others said suddenly putting hundreds of thousands of additional people at the front of the line would overwhelm their capacity. Your coronavirus vaccine questions, answered Moderna, Pfizer and AstraZeneca have released promising results from their initial coronavirus vaccine trials. Here are answers to common questions about them. (The Washington Post) In subsequent conversations with state and local authorities, federal officials sought to temper those instructions, said people who participated in the conversations. Gustave F. Perna, chief operating officer of Operation Warp Speed, spoke directly to officials in at least two of the jurisdictions receiving vaccine supply, explaining that allocations would not increase and that they did not have to broaden eligibility as they had previously been told, according to a health official who was not authorized to discuss the matter. The revised instructions led additional jurisdictions to hold off on broadening their priority groups. One state health official noted that the updated eligibility guidance announced Tuesday did not appear on the website of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, even though it was stated as federal policy by Azar and by Robert R. Redfield, the CDC director, in their remarks earlier this week. Under the original recommendations, adults 65 and older and front-line essential workers were to comprise the second priority group, known as phase 1b, in line after medical workers and residents and staff of long-term care facilities. AD But the issue of supply was most troubling to state health officials. “States were shocked and surprised that they did not see an increase in their allocations, and when they asked for explanations, some of them were told there was not a large stockpile of second doses to draw from,” said an official working with numerous states on vaccination planning who spoke on the condition of anonymity to recount sensitive conversations. “They thought they were getting more doses and they planned for more doses and opened up to 65 and up, thinking they were getting more.” In an email that reached some state officials on Friday morning, Christopher Sharpsten, an Operation Warp Speed director, called it a “false rumor” that “the federal government was holding back vaccine doses in warehouses to guarantee a second/booster dose.” AD But it had been Azar who said Tuesday that “we are releasing the entire supply we have for order by states, rather than holding second doses in physical reserve.” There was additional confusion. Another change Azar announced this week — making allocation of doses dependent on how quickly states administer them — would not take effect for two weeks, he said. But Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont (D) on Thursday tweeted that federal officials had notified the state that it would receive an additional 50,000 doses next week “as a reward for being among the fastest states” to get shots into arms. West Virginia, meanwhile, which is moving at the fastest clip based on CDC data, did not get any additional doses, said Holli Nelson, a spokeswoman for the state’s National Guard. In a sign that the incentive structure may not be long-lived, a senior Biden transition official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to address ongoing deliberations, said this week the team did not look kindly on a system that “punishes states.”
That is fucking amazing, how do you fuck that up? Someone deliberately lying to you and telling you to go ahead and make that announcement? Doesn't sound like it affects Pfizer's and Moderna's estimate of how many doses will be created by the end of first quarter though, both companies are saying they'll each have 100 million doses by the end of Q1.
but does that account for the shots already given? we don't want a $1400/$2000 issue on our hands again
seems like 100 million doses production wise from Pfizer and moderna by end of q1. That gives him about a month after to get them all in people’s arms. And the difference is if it’s 85 million it’ll be 100 2 weeks passed the self imposed deadline. The stimmy checks are never changing at that point
You mean this Publix with a long history of disparaging women and POC? No way! Publix Super Markets settles sex discrimination suit for $81.5 million https://apnews.com/article/ce16a4f9682336668bbaa8404a9a0d54 PUBLIX TO SETTLE RACE-BIAS LAWSUIT https://www.nydailynews.com/os-xpm-2000-12-30-0012300284-story.html
this data scientist's model updates and changes daily with new information. right now it's modeled at 77M in the first 100 days of his presidency. I'd take the under, personally, with some of the production news. however this also assumes only two vaccines have an EUA. https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/
You can be fine with that and still want to attack Publix for aligning itself with a trump puppet and one of the worst governors in the country.
Publix pharmacy is dog shit anyways anytime I tried to get something filled they would have to order it and take 3-4 days
I have had an annoying number of problems with publix pharmacies more recently than others, but their tendie game is on point.
DeSantis ain’t following shit. He listens to two people: his wife and his chief of staff. The Florida Department of Health has been neutered.
I wonder if this intellect-deficient poster is a by-product of the recent resurgence of the Rivals thread?