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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by shaolin5, Jan 20, 2020.
I thought the cure was Campbell's chicken noodle soup, DayQuil, and Sprite
According to that NY Times article modeling experts are looking at the way it’s spreading to other countries and seem confident it’s greater than 100,000. China understating the number of infected seems to be unfortunately exaggerating the mortality rate for them. I don’t think anyone is questioning that the mortality rate is much lower than SARS. That’s just pretty much agreed upon by everyone.
Vicks and Gatorade
Certainly hope this is right but n’s are small and unreliable at this point, no? (Edit: also lack of confidence in infected leads me to have lack of confidence in mortality as well. Why trust numerator if you don’t trust denominator?)
Wholly different level of preparedness and new interventions affecting mortality rate vs SARS, too, so disingenuous to hand wave the severity of the illness.
Because society is treating it with greater alarm and information spreads more quickly the threat is de facto reduced too. So “nothing to see here” seems as harmful as “the sky is falling”
I’m not an epidemiologist so going to butt out on further opining on that subject. Just wish others would do the same
You could say that about a lot of Huskers posters.
That was Randy Marsh's cure for SARS
Even offshore manufacturing like Vietnam and whatnot is completely reliant on China's supply chain. Global manufacturing is going to suffer until probably May.
This will probably accelerate a US recession cause spending will decline dramatically and cost of building will rise. It was happening due to trade war anyway, this just pours gas on it
Your insinuation is crazier than trusting the PRC. Think on that for a little bit.
I agree that suggesting it is definitive is questionable, and I apologize if that's how it came across. It's the data we have for now. Much like SARS, the realistic (or at least more realistic) numbers will eventually come out. What you suggested is plain lunacy though.
Defend Joke about child molesters some more, perv
yeah I’ve never done that
The modeling experts have been on that number from the start, before there was much of a trend at all. It's pretty damn impressive work on their part. When you consider the context and the events surrounding the origins of this virus, 100k is a crazy low number, but humans and statistics don't get along very well.
Excuse me, joke about them some more
If you guys don't want me in this thread, I'll leave. No problem.
No no no....as the thread starter, I BEG of you to stay. Your insight is both welcome and needed here.
Guys, can we try something brand new to TMB and actually NOT fight? At least in this thread?
I don't need to be begged. I just don't want to offend anyone's delicate sensibilities by adding some anecdotal color to the situation.
Also, Lipp and I have had a bit of mini bruhaha going the last month or so. My apologies for bringing that in here.
Understood. I just really appreciate your input. Lipp's too. I enjoy the different perspectives here
This is hurtful
Amen to that. I'm not trying to silence anyone else's perspective. I apologize if it comes across that way. I'm admittedly rather invested in the situation (in the people, not so much fiscally beyond a paycheck I'll still receive) and so that makes me respond strongly to things that seem absurd to me. No one needs me to tell them that people get a little crazy when things like this hit the mainstream.
This particular situation is also directly related to my field, so yeah. Double whammy. I think I've been transparent regarding my conflicts of interest from the jump, but if not, there they are.
how? It was proof you aren't the know it all
I have no interest in being linked, even indirectly, to a Shield defender
I’ve got no hatchet to bury friend
I just do know enough about stats to know the confidence intervals couldn’t even exist with the data that we have at this point
So any definitive statements are lunacy, i.e., “+/- 10000%”
Apparently not, but that's ok. We'll see in time.
That says nothing about confidence intervals, but it's a solid article otherwise. 2% is still less than 3%, so I think my initial statement still holds.
I honestly don't even remember what crazy number you initially quoted or stated, but if you want to play a probability distribution game, let's do it. Real-time %, something slightly to moderately higher than PRC %, your %.
I also made no conclusions about where this ends up. If it came off that way, I worded it poorly. We're discussing a viral outbreak in real-time with the information we have as things move along.
One thing I will say is that the way China is handling this likely means it's much worse than reported. Or they're using this as a test-run for future political suppression (not wise if so). Or, they're overdoing it in reaction to the mess that was SARS (a viral outbreak that was still incredibly small, not that that's much solace for the families who lost loved ones and patients who suffered from its symptoms).
The last sentence sums my entire point and is the last I’ll comment on the issue
It's also dangerous to speculate in the service of fear or malice without regard for science or the human cost of such speculation.
Did they fuck up the flu vaccine again this year? People dropping like flies all around me with A and B
Think one of the prominent ones h3n2 is pretty aggressive.
Such a shame so many healthy people are too dumb and/or lazy to get a flu shot
Not the only factor, as the cocktail does vary in accuracy and effectiveness, but so much this.
Should probably refrain from calling an educated guess that saves thousands of lives annually a fuck up, even if it does "miss"
Have never had the flu shot and have never had the flu. Fucking sheep injecting yourselves with that shit.
No! Not you too man!
One of the shitpit floaters being an anti vaxxer is too on the nose
As if we didn’t already have enough evidence that euro and Shookup were morons
I’m TOO woke
The fact that you are a sheep and line up for that shit is not surprising at all
If it's not for the flu what is it actually doing
The fact that you haven’t thought about that shows the sheepish nature of most people
Yeah so what's that shot actually for, free thinker
Euro rides hard for his brand
Says the guy that devoutly follows Kirby Smart
Killed more people than SARS now.
Wow you guys think Euro’s post is stupid?
He got you fuckers yet again! What a supreme troll!
right but they don’t always get the right strain which is what I’m asking
Yeah usually about 30-60% effective. This year was/is unusual because the B strain was so virulent and so early.
You have to have a very flawed background in all of this to start asking basic questions like this.
What are you getting at? They play an estimated guessing game annually and save millions of lives. If you expect them to be 100% then you just lack a sophomoric level of virology/concepts of infectious disease/immunology/basic common sense.