COVID-19 info thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by TrustyPatches, Mar 15, 2020.

  1. xec

    xec Well-Known Member
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    I think you are on the right track. The bolded part was a direct quote from a Professor of Phamaceutical Medicine at King’s College in London. However, I think her statement holds true for the overall population of Norway and was not intended to address the different age groups. Age group consideration of the AZ vaccine will become the focus. If a high percentage of Norwegian people under 50 choose to not have the AZ vaccination, the result could leave those above 50 and those under 50 with pre-existing conditions at the current rates of Covid infection and related death. At least until another vaccine option is available to Norwegians.
     
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  2. RonBurgundy

    RonBurgundy Well-Known Member

    Re: Norwegian data about blood clots. It’s probably real but incredibly small.

     
  3. pperc

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    thank you
     
  4. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox (Insert name here) is tired - try again, Vin
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  5. Imurhuckleberry

    Imurhuckleberry Avid spectator of windmill warriors
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    From my lady. She's always told those who said they wouldn't get the vaccine that it's their decision and that is just one more vaccine for someone she loves. Still there are enough of them (including my stubborn ass papa) that I have to think localized outbreaks are just going to be a thing.

    Btw, in case any of you missed the memo, rolling your eyes at your doctor (especially your female doctor) isn't the way to impress them with your healthcare acumen.

    "So I had a sick COVID patient that I let go home. 67yo male. He rolled his eyes when I asked about the vaccine. He came back 12 hours later and got admitted. Now he just got transferred to the ICU. It still isnt over."
     
    #9105 Imurhuckleberry, Mar 23, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2021
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  6. Hoss Bonaventure

    Hoss Bonaventure I can’t pee with clothes touching my butt
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    I posted about a guy I know that got hit hard with covid back in January. Extended stay in ICU, vent, has to use a walker now and have supplemental oxygen as well. He’s 50. Saw a post on Facebook with him bitching about not being able to go into restaurants and dine in because the place has dine in closed without a mask. Some people are too stupid to live yet we keep dragging them along.
     
  7. Hoss Bonaventure

    Hoss Bonaventure I can’t pee with clothes touching my butt
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    I could only imagine the look on the faces of the poor restaurant employees as they see a guy with a walker and a person pushing his O2 tank up to the door with no masks and then bitching at them about it.
     
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  8. Imurhuckleberry

    Imurhuckleberry Avid spectator of windmill warriors
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    This is the angle I've been taking with my papa. You have copd (never smoked so our best guess is he was exposed to something in the war) you might not die but you could require oxygen much sooner than otherwise.
     
  9. Walt Disney

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    Explain antibodies like I’m 3

    if someone got a test and has positive (175.0) for Sars-cov-2 antibodies, there is no reason they shouldn’t go ahead and get both vaccine doses right

    they had covid and back in late September with symptoms and lasted for about 3 weeks
     
  10. Pile Driving Miss Daisy

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    There's not much of a choice right now, FDA still recommends getting two doses and it won't hurt them, it just may be kind of more intense than someone who wasn't exposed. All places are going to want you to to come in for your second dose if you're getting Pfizer or Moderna. If this person had COVID-19 back in September then more than enough time has elapsed that they should get the vaccine.

    As the PhDs and Doctors in here can explain better than me, still testing positive for antibodies doesn't mean you can't get infected again and experience symptoms (and be contagious more importantly).
     
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  11. poor paul

    poor paul Well-Known Member
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    They probably only *need* one dose, but they should just follow guidance and get both.
     
  12. Can I Spliff it

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    Imagine that they're specifically designed guard dogs whose specially trained to bite and immobilize/incapacitate one kind of trespasser (with a little variance to trespassers that look very similar) and waits for backup
     
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  13. DeToxRox

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    PORTO ALEGRE, Brazil—Brazil is in the throes of a battle against the new Covid-19 variant from the Amazon that threatens to send shock waves across the globe.

    Home to less than 3% of the world’s population, Brazil currently accounts for almost a third of the daily global deaths from Covid-19, driven by the new variant. More than 300,000 have died, and daily deaths now top 3,000, a toll suffered only by the far more populous U.S.

    “We’re in the trenches here, fighting a war,” said Andréia Cruz, a 42-year-old emergency-ward nurse in the southern Brazilian city of Porto Alegre. In the past three weeks alone, the surrounding state of Rio Grande do Sul has seen nearly 5,000 people die from Covid-19, more than in the final three months of last year.

    The spread of the virus in Brazil threatens to turn this country of 213 million into a global public-health hazard. The so-called P.1 strain, present in more than 20 countries and identified in New York last week, is up to 2.2 times more contagious and as much as 61% more able to reinfect people than previous versions of the coronavirus, according to a recent study.

    Inside Brazil’s Fight Against P.1, a Fast-Spreading Covid-19 Variant
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    Inside Brazil’s Fight Against P.1, a Fast-Spreading Covid-19 Variant
    WSJ’s Paulo Trevisani reports from Porto Alegre’s overwhelmed hospitals, where doctors say young people are getting ill.
    The P.1 is now responsible for the majority of new infections in Brazil, with many doctors here saying they are seeing more young and otherwise healthy patients falling ill. About 30% of people dying from Covid-19 are now under 60, compared with an average of about 26% during Brazil’s previous peak between June and August, according to official figures analyzed by The Wall Street Journal.

    Public health researchers warn this isn’t just Brazil’s crisis, pointing to what they say is widespread complacency in the U.S. and elsewhere over the risks stemming from Latin America and other unvaccinated swaths of the globe. Brazil has fully vaccinated only 1.8% of its population.

    “There is a rush to declare this pandemic is over, and it’s not,” said William Hanage, a Harvard University epidemiologist. “I dread to think what will happen when P.1 manages to get to [places] that are not likely to get vaccinated for quite some time.”

    Cases in South America are surging at the same time asBrazil’s P.1 variant spreads.Daily confirmed Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people,seven-day rolling averageSources: Johns Hopkins CSSE (cases); European Center forDisease Prevention and Control (populations)
    Most daily casesper capita everUruguayBrazilChilePeruColombiaDec. 2020Jan. '21Feb.March01020304050
    At the Moacyr Scliar hospital in Porto Alegre, harried doctors push aside stretchers to tend to the next patient, many of whom are forced to sleep on chairs for days as they struggle for air in the hot ward.

    “If I make any movement, sit up or turn around, my heart races and it gets hard to breathe,” said Jeanne Silva, a 30-year-old asthma sufferer. She grimaced with pain as she shifted in the armchair she had been sitting in for 30 hours, oxygen tubes connected to her nose. “I’m scared,” she said.

    Brazil has become a global pariah as scores of nations impose restrictions on travelers from the country, including neighboring Colombia as well as others such as the U.K. Peru’s government said 40% of infections in its hard-hit capital are from P.1, while tiny Uruguay, which borders Rio Grande do Sul, has seen infections skyrocket to an all-time high.

    Researchers said preliminary studies suggest the existing vaccines being rolled out across the world are effective on P.1, but further studies are needed to check if their efficacy is reduced with the new variant. The longer the virus is left to fester and mutate here, the higher the chance that even more aggressive strains may emerge, threatening vaccination progress made by the U.S. and elsewhere.

    An ICU at a public hospital in Porto Alegre, where at least 60% of new Covid-19 infections are from the P.1 variant.
    Administrators and managers work in the control room at Porto Alegre’s Hospital Mãe de Deus, which has 93% of its beds occupied.

    Further alarming researchers, the P.1 variant itself has also already started to mutate, showing changes that could make it even more infectious, said Felipe Naveca, who led some of the first research into P.1 and works at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, a public health institution.

    “If we don’t stop the virus circulating, it won’t stop evolving,” he said.

    A lackadaisical approach to masking and social distancing and a slow vaccine rollout all helped turn Brazil into the perfect breeding ground for variants, researchers said. The P.1 emerged in Manaus, a major industrial hub from where truckers likely helped spread it rapidly across the country.

    A later arrival than the B.1.1.7 strain in the U.K., P.1. remains somewhat of a mystery—in part because Brazil also tests less than the U.K., meaning data is scarcer. While researchers know P.1 is more contagious and more capable of reinfecting, there is no definitive answer yet on whether it is also more lethal.

    The share of people under the age of 60 dying from Covid-19 in Brazil is rising.Weekly Covid-19 deaths under age 60Source: Brazil's Ministry of HealthNote: Numbers correspond to week’s start date.
    %Dec. 2020Jan. '21Feb.March0102030
    But from the Brazilian jungle and northeastern coastal cities to the southern farming belt, doctors and hospital directors said in interviews with the Journal that the dangers from P.1 are overwhelming and obvious.

    “We’re seeing patients who aren’t obese, who have no comorbidities, who are not old but, even so, the virus just overwhelms them,” said Diego Montarroyos Simões, an intensive-care doctor in the northeast city of Recife.

    A thousand miles to the southwest in the mining state of Minas Gerais, many doctors note a rise in younger and more critically ill patients in comparison to the country’s surge of cases in the middle of last year.

    “The virus is claiming parents and their children,” said Eduardo Lopes, 47, an assistant nurse at one of the main hospitals treating Covid-19 patients in Belo Horizonte.

    In Porto Alegre, where at least 60% of new Covid-19 infections are caused by P.1, the number of patients between 40 and 69 years old dying in the city has risen 125.5% since December, while total fatalities rose only 102.7%, according to official data analyzed by Álvaro Krüger Ramos, a mathematician at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul.

    More than two months after Brazil’s vaccination campaign started, public health experts say it hasn’t been enough.
    PHOTO: LUCIO TAVORA/XINHUA/ZUMA PRESS
    Cemetery workers buried a person at night in the Vila Formosa cemetery in São Paulo on March 25.
    PHOTO: MIGUEL SCHINCARIOL/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
    Researchers say it could be a reflection that younger people are taking more risks as they tire of social-distancing rules, or because many of the eldest and most vulnerable Brazilians have either died or been vaccinated. Or it could be more lethal, though they say further studies are needed.

    The scale of the human tragedy here has been amplified by the breakdown of the Brazilian health system, which is so overtaxed that patients admitted for everything from injuries from car crashes to heart attacks are also more likely to die.

    ICU wards in all but two states are now full or struggling to cope at more than 80% capacity, said the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. The country’s funeral association is urging funeral homes to stock up on urns.

    SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS
    What steps could health officials take to manage new variants and a rising death toll in Brazil? Join the conversation below.

    After oxygen shortages caused patients to suffocate to death earlier this year in the Amazonian city of Manaus, hundreds of cities across the country have braced for a similar fate. Even São Paulo’s top private hospitals, which treat billionaires and presidents from across Latin America, have run out of ICU beds in recent weeks.

    Brazil also owes its current catastrophe to a fatal combination of what public health experts say was mismanagement of the crisis by the government.

    President Jair Bolsonaro, a former army captain, has played down the dangers of the disease, disparaging face masks and recently telling Brazilians to get back to work and “stop whining.”

    His health ministry has spent tens of millions of dollars on unproven cures for the disease while dragging its feet on vaccine supply deals.

    A medical worker helped an intubated Covid-19 patient at the public hospital Clinicas in Porto Alegre on March 13.
    “Why the hurry to vaccinate,” Mr. Bolsonaro told supporters in December as he declared the pandemic to be “almost over.”

    Many Brazilians have adopted the same attitude and refused to bow to a patchwork of curfews and restrictions imposed by cities across the country.

    State governments have sought out vaccines, with no federal help. São Paulo, Brazil’s richest state, struck its own deal with the Chinese to test and produce Sinovac’s Covid-19 shot, CoronaVac, at the Butantan Institute, its biomedical research center, and several northern states turned to Russia, signing purchases for the Sputnik V shot.

    Brazil’s Health Ministry said it is doing everything possible to speed up vaccinations and has secured 562 million doses to be delivered this year.

    But more than two months after it started, Brazil’s vaccination campaign hasn’t been enough, public health experts said.

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    With 10 mutations on the spike protein that helps the virus attach to human cells, P.1 has been found to be more contagious than previous versions. But P.1 also appears to cause more serious illness, said José Eduardo Levi, a virologist at the lab and hospital group DASA.

    With vaccines slow to arrive, some cities have taken drastic measures. Araraquara, home to 240,000 people and one of the first cities to be devastated by P.1, shut down supermarkets for six days and public transport for 10 days last month.

    “The greatest humanitarian tragedy in the history of Brazil will be the coronavirus,” said Edinho Silva, Araraquara’s mayor.

    He said the president’s argument that Brazil must remain open to save its economy made no sense. “No one is going to invest in the middle of a pandemic—either you deal with the pandemic or the economy doesn’t recover,” Mr. Silva said.

    In Araraquara, 19 people under the age of 40 have died from Covid-19 this year, or 8.75% of all fatalities from the disease, compared with only one person in 2020, representing 1.1%.

    One of them was Jorge Carbone, a 35-year-old store manager with no previous health problems. Less than two weeks after complaining of a sore throat, he was dead.

    “The pain of losing him is unbearable,” said Luzia Abud, his 50-year-old aunt. “People are just disappearing,”

    Marcos Oling, 47, an Uber driver in Porto Alegre, became infected with P.1 and has been hooked up to oxygen for more than a week, most of which he spent on a wheelchair for lack of spare beds. He said he is frustrated by those not taking the virus seriously.

    “People think nothing will happen to them,” he said.
     
  14. Nick Rivers

    Nick Rivers Well-Known Member
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    Friend whom I’ve posted about previously, had COVID 1 year ago (first confirmed positive in Orange County FL) and is still testing positive for antibodies as of yesterday.
     
  15. Pile Driving Miss Daisy

    Pile Driving Miss Daisy It angries up the blood
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    Very very encouraging. Honestly the public messaging at this point needs to be "If enough people get vaccinated then we can drop masks sooner than later."

     
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  16. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox (Insert name here) is tired - try again, Vin
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  17. John McGuirk

    John McGuirk member of the blue tiger club
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    Right before the 4/20 festivities. Nice
     
  18. Can I Spliff it

    Can I Spliff it Is Butterbean okay?
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  19. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox (Insert name here) is tired - try again, Vin
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    Michigan loosened restrictions, and now has a seven day average of of 4600 cases. We are getting blasted by these variants.
     
  20. Hawks11

    Hawks11 The arsonist has oddly shaped feet
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    I thought we were doing better since more and more people are getting the vaccine. Once you are fully vaccinated, you shouldn’t have to worry anymore, right? I haven’t kept up with it as much, so forgive me if I’m off.
     
  21. Henry Blake

    Henry Blake No Springsteen is leaving this house!
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    #9121 Henry Blake, Mar 29, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2021
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  22. Room 15

    Room 15 Mi equipo esta Los Tigres
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    the recommendation is generally that 14 days after 2nd dose you’re essentially good to go. I think that’s on the conservative side. But fair to play it safe.
     
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  23. Pile Driving Miss Daisy

    Pile Driving Miss Daisy It angries up the blood
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    I think there's an assumption that people who are vaccinated can still spread the virus if they get infected (which seems less and less likely with each published study). There are lots of people going back out who aren't vaccinated yet since many states have loosened restrictions.

    Georgia's cases seem to be ticking up very slightly, but nothing like Michigan, and we never really shut down at all.
     
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  24. Tommy Jefferson

    Tommy Jefferson Well-Known Member
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    I don’t know that many were making assumptions regarding the ability to spread the virus after vaccination. It was more that we didn’t have evidence to confidently say yes/no, so better to be conservative and continue to mask up.

    I definitely agree that as more evidence comes out, the likelihood that those vaccinated are infectious looks more slim. However, when considering virus variants, I don’t see value in being in a big rush to throw away our masks.
     
  25. John McGuirk

    John McGuirk member of the blue tiger club
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    What you refer to is “sterilizing immunity” and apparently it is pretty rare when it comes to vaccines. Might be less likely to spread it, but I don’t think anyone knows at this point.
     
  26. Room 15

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  27. It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens

    It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens Well-Known Member
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    I'm going to keep wearing a mask. Keep avoiding huge crowds. I will be going to restaurants though.
     
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  28. NDfanPSUgrad

    NDfanPSUgrad Well-Known Member
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    I was expecting to see certain age groups >65 to start to show significant separation from the trends of all age groups. Roughly looking at my phone there are 55M in that group and nearly 35M have gotten at least 1 dose. The trends of daily cases for that group is still following a similar pattern and I guess I was being optimistic to think it would start to have a sharper drop off.

    edit for reference
    https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographicsovertime
     
  29. Room 15

    Room 15 Mi equipo esta Los Tigres
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    What will be your milestone to change that behavior?
     
  30. It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens

    It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens Well-Known Member
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    I don't know. I have Allstar game tickets. I'll probably go to that if everything is looking good.

    Wearing a mask just doesn't bother me so I'm probably going to wear one as long as it's socially acceptable or science shows no benefit.
     
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  31. slogan119

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    I feel relatively confident I’ll use a mask when flying from this point forward. Period.
     
  32. BWC

    BWC It was the BOAT times, it was the WOAT times
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    Socially acceptable shouldn't be part of the equation. It will be, of course, but it shouldn't be.

    Masks should become a thing during every flu season from here on. There's really no good reason not to. I'm open to hearing attempts at a reason though.
     
  33. Room 15

    Room 15 Mi equipo esta Los Tigres
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    You’re arguing for mask mandates for every flu season? Or that it be socially acceptable to wear one during flu season?
     
  34. BWC

    BWC It was the BOAT times, it was the WOAT times
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    I hope it becomes socially unacceptable to shun someone for wearing a mask. That behavior is ludicrous.

    No, I'm not arguing for mask mandates. I'm hoping for changed behaviors.
     
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  35. 1

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    I honestly don't think people will care anymore... generally speaking of course. There's always outliers for anything.
     
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  36. fish

    fish Impossible, Germany
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    I'm always going to mask up in public indoor spaces going forward.
     
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  37. BWC

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    I tend to agree. Would be nice if people cared enough to take a simple step to protect others in the future. If our society is going to drive people to leave home when they shouldn't (when sick), the least it can do is promote a small effort to prevent spread of illness.

    Hopefully see improvements in vaccination rates for flu as well if the positive trends continue with the results of these COVID vaccines.
     
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  38. Room 15

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    Ah ok. Worrying about the shunners probably isn’t worth your time anyways.

    I imagine I’ll wear one going forward if I’m symptomatic of something. I likely won’t wear one just because it’s wintertime. But I’m sure as hell not gonna worry if someone else does.
     
  39. BWC

    BWC It was the BOAT times, it was the WOAT times
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    I'm not particularly worried about them directly, just amplification of their message (given the politicization) and the general softness of our society when it comes to taking the smallest of personal actions to benefit others.
     
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  40. pperc

    pperc Well-Known Member
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  41. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox (Insert name here) is tired - try again, Vin
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    The biggest hospital system in Michigan is saying at least 40% of their hospitalizations have been identified as the B.1.17 variant. Internally the belief is it’s closer to 50%.
     
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  42. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox (Insert name here) is tired - try again, Vin
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    And Michigan had its first confirmed B.1.351 case a few days ago. So go us.
     
  43. pnk$krtcrÿnästÿ

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    What am I missing? Isnt this another serological study that tells us essentially what we already knew? I'm really hoping to see more clinical studies out of SA
     
  44. pperc

    pperc Well-Known Member
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    With some folks still suggesting to just move to 1 shot, it’s clear that strategy may not be a lasting one
     
  45. Chipper>Jeter

    Chipper>Jeter Defund the NCAA
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    I will take 5 if I have to after having that shit
     
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  46. DeToxRox

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  47. Pile Driving Miss Daisy

    Pile Driving Miss Daisy It angries up the blood
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    Yeah I think that made more sense back in January and February, but almost all states are completely open up to everyone for vaccinations now. I just hope the data Pfizer published where 6 months protection was shown against the SA variant is legit.
     
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  48. pnk$krtcrÿnästÿ

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    Not a rosy picture painted by Mike Osterholm. Not at all.



    Cliffs:
    --Vaccine rates can't and haven't kept pace with variants, and we're already in the start of our fourth wave
    --concerned about hospitalization rates of younger people
    --Vaccines, as we expected/knew, are doing a great job protecting elderly
    --Spread among kids much more important factor with B117. Policy decisions right now are a huge "WTF?"
    --Still beating the drum about expanding partial vaccination (not sure about this one)
     
  49. Illinihockey

    Illinihockey Well-Known Member
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    With B117 spreading so fast, wish they’d make a vaccine available for at least 12+
     
  50. Henry Blake

    Henry Blake No Springsteen is leaving this house!
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    I posted a tweet from WH covid data guy in the other thread that says that they think it's the most common variant in the US now.

    They estimated that it was ~27% prevalence for the ending date of 3/13. Who knows where it is now.
     
    #9150 Henry Blake, Apr 8, 2021
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2021
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