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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by TrustyPatches, Mar 15, 2020.
So, about the joke the other day. Hold onto your dicks...
Explain that to me like I'm 5 please.
Your dick doesn't work correct
I hope this isn’t true
Covid-19 makes you less of a man
Couldn’t you also argue that lower T/LH males are more susceptible to the virus? Just read the abstract but if the control group is just people without the disease and not pre/post T/LH levels I’m not sure how you can make the jump.
What are the legal obligations of a positive tested person to inform those who they have been in close contact with?
I just found out someone I was near ~2 weeks ago tested positive. I figure I’m out of danger since I’m outside 14 days, but still.
Sure, reverse correlation. Measles does this, too, though.
None. You can thank our under and de funded public health system for lack of notifying you. But hey, your taxes are lower right? Betcha that makes you super happy!
Man, that’s good
I’ve been pessimistic from the get-go based on lax response. I still feel 2-5MM is the final body count - unless a working vaccine and treatment comes about.
What is your thought at this stage, based on what we know now?
Did NYC start using the Trump touted drugs today?
500,000-1MM is my prediction. Final reporting of confirmed deaths closer to 300-500K range. Lots of nursing home/home deaths never fully attributable to Covid. Lots of pneumonia deaths never tested just assumed but those won’t show up in the stats.
also, another 2-5MM in stroke/MI/sepsis from cases where our systems were too over burdened to save.
remember only 60-70% likely get it if we do NOTHING and enough people social distancing will drop rate to 30-40% infection, then with all asymptomatic cases TRUE CFR is less than 1% if system not over burdened, probably double to triple that with over burdening.
the above is complete and total speculation.
I’ve always been 0.5 - 1.5M dead. I’m sticking to that. I think actual willl be higher but under reported due to lack of testing pre or post mortem
Some weird doctor had some twitter thread today.
Overdoses. DKA. Completely manageable conditions that are likely going to become more fatal over the next couple months.
Reading this thread with pperc15 posting *every tweet possible* and reading social media in general just raises my fucking anxiety. Gonna stay offline a bit and just try to follow the recommendations thus far to try to stay healthy and keep my family healthy.
Could it just be that the dead were not tested and thus are not counted as COVID?
Or had false negative tests.
Yes, false negatives are about 30%. I really don’t think the States and independent hospitals are part of a Trump effort to hide numbers. I worked an entire career with 3 different State Health Departments. They won’t be co-opted like CDC might have been.
I’m including those who won’t be counted and fall outside verifiable deaths due to Covid, everything from those who can’t be attended due to overfill hospital capacity all the way to suicides.
Miami fan streak is unending.
Does anyone have a good resource of the testing we’ve done vs where the administration said we would be? They made tons of promises what felt like 1.5 weeks ago and I don’t believe we are anywhere close.
Anyone have a link to data re: how long you have to interact with someone in order to contract the disease?
Seems like I heard some new info yesterday on TV/radio suggesting that the interaction usually needs to be somewhat prolonged. That is, you're less likely to get it by passing someone in the grocery store.
likely true. it's probabilities.
have they proven the initial “dose” of the virus you get matters too? I believe that was the hypothesis from how sick the healthcare workers were getting.
Do you think the viral load hypothesis is true? Makes sense logically, the more you are exposed to someone who is contagious or the higher number of contagious people you interact with at any one point in time the higher the initial "dosage" of virus you get, seems like it would be harder for your immune system to bring that under control versus coming into contact but only receive a lower initial load.
If you do believe that is true, is someone who got a higher initial load more likely to be able to fight off a subsequent exposure (if the virus comes back again in the latter part of the year) than someone who got a smaller load?
How big are the loads you’re taking?
I know this is the serious thread, so apologies, but I couldn’t help myself.
It's hard to not laugh at that phrasing, "distribute the load" is another phrase I use a lot as a web/backend developer and I love it.
This is somewhat technical so I'm crossposting it with the general chat thread. Apologies if it's considered OT.
I'm still seeing a lot of talk about the temporary UBI/cash bailout being a bad idea due to inflation. I've said that inflation isn't a thing and wanted to elaborate on why now that I'm not eating and thumb-blasting my disease-riddled, glass nightmare rectangle.
The orthodox view of inflation is that it's problematic to introduce more total currency because, treating money like a commodity, it would lower demand for the currency, thereby increasing the amount of currency required to trade. In practical terms, this means that things become worth 'more' money as money becomes worth 'less.' Visions of the Weimar Republic wheelbarrowing marks around to buy bread come to mind. The whole of the idea is that with a surplus of cash in circulation, cash will be devalued to the point that it impairs purchasing power.
Now, there are some fundamental assumptions built in here that are pretty simply wrong. First, money is not a commodity. We can pretend it is, but it isn't. What it is is a promissory note, an IOU, a guarantee-- from the government. More on this in a minute. Second, increases in total currency in circulation are not guaranteed to connect to prices. Over time, we may see an increase in price, but this leads us to the third point. Third, the increase of money in circulation need not raise prices to such an extent that it impairs purchasing power.
So, the reason inflation isn't real: the US government's promissory notes are good. The dollar is a reflection of faith, not of commodity trends. Historically, when we see severe inflation (hyperinflation) is that those governments have been sanctioned and often outright attacked by the US. If global capital sees your currency as worthless, then of course it spirals inflation. Arguably, hamstringing the economy with handwringing about who will pay for it-- treating the Federal budget like a personal checkbook, refusing to extend debts, limiting the circulation of money among the spending class- is a greater threat to the power of the dollar than more dollars. This is because it represents a crisis of faith in the dollar.
By the way, we have seen increased prices with stagnant wages because we have allowed more money into the system but only among the very richest actors in the economy. The real Fed easing for the 2007-2009 crisis was $7.7 trillion. That's to speak nothing of the cheap borrowing we've allowed since Reagan was in office. The pain we've felt here isn't the extra money that exists-- it's the limitation on purchasing power imposed by exclusion of access to that money.
Everyone believes in the US economy because its labor force creates tremendous value. The dollar is trustworthy. It's time we allow people to access the fruits of that without pretending it's going to make bread cost $1000. BUT EVEN IF IT DID, as long as the median income skyrockets proportionally, who fucking cares? The numbers don't matter. What matters is the percentage of real wages that is available for consumer spending.
TL;DR: inflation isn't real because money isn't a commodity and our government can maintain faith in the dollar by enabling spending by the working class.
not proven by any stretch. As a hypothesis it makes sense.
yes, I think it’s a sound hypothesis and could explain why healthcare workers seem to get very sick. If you get too much of an initial dose, it’s harder for your immune response to keep up as viral replication occurs. Just like person to person, logarithmic growth occurs in your body.
Viral loads and prolonged immunity isn’t a well understood thing for this virus. In short, we don't know. My guess is that it probably doesn’t matter to a degree, but it’s unknown.
Has that been shown for any virus though? If I don't get as sick because of a lower initial dose, will I still have as good of an immunity against it later on as if I got a higher dose and sick as a dog?
Most of this data is from mouse, rats, and other models. The short answer is it depends on the virus and you.
Covid in macaques: https://www.livescience.com/monkeys-cannot-get-reinfected-with-coronavirus-study.html'
Haven't kept up with this thread the way I would have liked. Is there any kind of general consensus on a time table for how long expects believe this will last?
It would be speculation and most experts stay away from doing that on record. One way to get a “feel” for it is to follow Italy. We are a couple of weeks behind them and they do not see a clear end date. We are also a larger country geographically and have a much larger population. I have a feeling that it might “end” sooner in some communities than in others.
More from Evercore ISI:
WRONG DOSE of hydroxychloroquine in COVID -- DEEP DIVE webinar on Fri @ 9 am ET
We’ve been doing tons of thinking on this topic, and I think we’ve spotted a problem.
Hydroxychloroquine looks quite potent in preclinical models.
So why are the results so mixed thus far?
It may have to do with poorly designed trials (hint: wrong dose). Amidst the ongoing crisis, folks may not have thought through the dosing math properly … perhaps because a good Pk curve for various doses of this old generic doesn’t exist? In some cases, it looks like malaria dosing is being used for COVID.
Am pasting all the hydroxychloroquine trials from clinicaltrials.gov below – and notice the range of dosing is all over the place.
On Friday @ 9 am ET, please join me for a DEEP DIVE on this topic. Not only will we do detailed math on Pk conversion and EC50 comparisons, we will also (attempt to) propose a dose that should be more active.
Fri @ 9 am ET (<<pls log in early – webinar services are overloaded these days)
Link to webinar: https://isigrp.webex.com/isigrp/onstage/g.php?MTID=e25d9838d42ce138364949980f61e6787
Password = umer
Dial-in (you won’t see slides): 650-479-3208
Access code = 665 823 485
Yeah...so maybe a long ass time. Thought I saw something from the White House that said until July-August but I guess the source speaks for itself there and that was a week ago or thereabouts. Is there any data on how the summer heat might effect the virus?
Today’s IL numbers:
Approx. 13% positive test rate and 1% mortality rate, similar to where we stood yesterday.
US deaths, or worldwide?