COVID-19 info thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by TrustyPatches, Mar 15, 2020.

  1. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hotdog
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    Can I bother you for any thoughts you have here? That mortality rate looks really bad...

     
  2. bamasam09

    bamasam09 Well-Known Member
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    I can't go into too many details (mainly because I'm way out of swim lane here), but the Army is making some major head way in collaboration with UT-Austin for discovering neutralizing antibodies to COVID19. This would ultimately help lead to developing a treatment. Army Research Labs is coordinating efforts with industry, academic, and other Army partners to integrate and accelerate the response.
     
  3. momux

    momux AFAM Scholar
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    I think ultimate deaths will be life altering but a little lower than some of you in this thread. Take a look at this Nobel laureates approach. You can definitely poke some holes in it but it also raises some good points.

    https://m.calcalistech.com/Article.aspx?guid=3800632
     
  4. xec

    xec Well-Known Member
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    He’s completely made the wrong conclusions about the data on this graph.
     
  5. xec

    xec Well-Known Member
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    If they have only been testing people showing symptoms who had close contact with a known case this mortality rate is consistent with data elsewhere. Of the total pool of infected persons, the mortality rate is probably closer to 1%.
     
  6. Tarpon Nole

    Tarpon Nole Well-Known Member
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    Gwnrmany has tested everyone pretty much everyone. Their death rate is like .05%
     
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  7. pperc15

    pperc15 Well-Known Member
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    That's a 20% positivity rate for tests. The rest of the country is averaging 10% so they are WAY WAY WAY under testing in Georgia. Cutting the hospitalization and CFR rate in half roughly put them still above, but roughly close to the country average for this.
     
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  8. Zebbie

    Zebbie Hey Mike, guess what I have in my underwear?
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    shit
     
  9. xec

    xec Well-Known Member
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    Germany is very interesting at this point. Their data stands out in its difference with data from other countries. I’m hoping their numbers are close to the truth when the retrospective studies dig into the pandemic. It wouldn’t surprise me at all.
     
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  10. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member

    42% today
     
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  11. angus

    angus Well-Known Member
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    .5% who get it or .05% of the population?
     
  12. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member

    Theres something wrong with those numbers or they are doing something extremely right, would the mortality rate be significantly lower if we tested everyone? Absolutely, but thats not what Germans done so theres something weird going on or they have done a fantastic job.
     
  13. pperc15

    pperc15 Well-Known Member
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    Yes, good stuff. Vir Biotechnology in collaboration with Regeneron also today announced some news on neutralizing antibodies that should be in clinical trials in a couple of months.

    I think he's make some poor assumptions. The context around some of those numbers - what China did to mitigate spread, what Diamond Princess did to mitigate spread, we aren't doing here in many places of the country yet, and where we have it may be too late. It's also easy to handle a 20% surge of cases on a confined cruise ship early on in the pandemic where ventilators and care of the highest quality was provided. It's totally different if you surge the hospitals and run out of beds and ventilators. We will see.

    Your decimal place needs to move over 1 spot. Read about what they did and why they could do it. Not happening here.
     
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  14. xec

    xec Well-Known Member
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    A poster earlier on this page said Germany has tested almost every one. Frankly, I do not know what they have done.
     
  15. pperc15

    pperc15 Well-Known Member
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    I get just under 30%. what are you calculating?
     
  16. pperc15

    pperc15 Well-Known Member
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    They have a very large network of diagnostic labs
     
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  17. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member

    From what I've read they are doing 150k tests a week with a pop of 82 million so they haven't tested everyone (But probably started out better than us). I haven't followed their situation closely as well so I'll differ to someone with better knowledge on their tactics but I would guess they were on it early with testing and tracking.


    Just the percent + for today 3/25
     
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  18. Tarpon Nole

    Tarpon Nole Well-Known Member
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    0.5% I typed too fast originally

    41,266 confirmed cases, 216 reported deaths
     
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  19. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member

    What methods did they use? Their mortality rate suggests they avoided overwhelming hospitals which makes me assume they got after it early with track and trace.

    (Edit: looking at their deaths chart it seems to be taking off now though huge increase today)
     
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  20. pperc15

    pperc15 Well-Known Member
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    bingo. but yes, they flattened the curve. should help them long term.
     
  21. Tarpon Nole

    Tarpon Nole Well-Known Member
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    They are also.pnly reporting 23 "severe" cases

    No idea what the definition is for that, but we show almost 1,200, France has 2,500, Italy has 3,500 and Spain has 3,200
     
  22. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member

    also side note pperc15 do you have that sequencing guys twitter? I recall seeing a tweet about someones guess for how long a vaccine might be useful for. Whoever it was commented he figured we had a couple years before it would be ineffective.
     
  23. pperc15

    pperc15 Well-Known Member
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    I see. I worry all over we will see percent + go up because we are starting to not test the really sick people assuming that they are Covid +. I fear that means they won't make it into the statistics or won't until they die and death is attributed to Covid.

    Also, i fear HHS is starting to tells states to test less which will make the numbers look better but the ground situation will be worse.
     
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  24. pperc15

    pperc15 Well-Known Member
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    Yes, Trevor Bedford.
    @trvrb
     
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  25. Georgia_Nole

    Georgia_Nole You had me at meat tornado
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    Here in Utah we're at a 5% positive rate. Ideally what should the number get down to to start saying "we have a better grasp on this thing locally"

    The State is pushing a test test test mindset, and the labs are not up to being able to process 3,500 test a day.
     
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  26. pperc15

    pperc15 Well-Known Member
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    You have ARUP there in Utah. Huge advantage for the state.

    I think getting down to 0.1-1% positivity (on patients showing symptoms) + serological testing would be a breaking point but that's just a guess.
     
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  27. THF

    THF BITE THE NUTS, THUMB IN THE ASS!
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    If we are still under testing and seeing large positive percentages from the overall tests, that has to mean the fatality rate of this virus is lower than we have previously thought correct?

    Obviously the higher transmission and infection rates mean its much more deadly, but it means from a percentage who get it will die perspective, that has to be less. Am I missing something?
     
  28. AlternativeFactsRule

    AlternativeFactsRule Mmm ... Coconuts
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    The lethality of the virus in a single case scenario isn’t really the problem (and has never been). The problem is the numbers of infected and what that does to the healthcare system. The virus becomes deadlier (as does every single other disease) when you can’t be appropriately treated for it because the healthcare system is swamped.
     
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  29. pperc15

    pperc15 Well-Known Member
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    It means it's probably lower than what we've seen in the U.S. so far which is 1.4% or so. We still have many cases that are in the ICU and we haven't yet overloaded hospital capacity or ventilator capacity. We are still EARLY in terms of spread and case progression in the U.S. In South Korea it's around 0.6% because they flattened the curve. In Italy is 8-9%. Not testing doesn't change what we previously thought which is fatality in the 5x - 15x greater than influenza range which is being held up by data.

    I don't think you are missing something, but you tell me.
     
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  30. DirtBall

    DirtBall Who Cares?
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    I just got off the phone with my oral surgeon and he said one of the scariest things he’s seeing is a lot of the non geriatric deaths are cardiac. Said there’s a group where fever/symptoms start subsiding but then the virus is causing a weird form of afib that’s leading to cardiac failure. Are you hearing/seeing that in any of the literature RonBurgundy?
     
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  31. THF

    THF BITE THE NUTS, THUMB IN THE ASS!
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    I guess does the hospital capacity being overloaded effect the fatality rate from a reporting statistic? Is it reported as two numbers? As we are seeing there is the 0.6 in SK and the 8-9% in Italy. How do they report on the fatality rate of a disease like this? The variance of 0.6 - 9% is such a wide variance, I would think there would have to be some sort of factor used to explain the differences for each population.

    The testing numbers are too easily skewed, especially from a state to state perspective where testing standards have been all over the board. Some states are aggressive and some are doing a poor job. However the death rate is a much easier number to report on and in those cases we should see a much smaller margin of error in looking at the reporting. If we can figure out the true fatality rate of this disease, we can back in to the total infection numbers that way, which would give us a much better idea of how many people are infected in the US.
     
  32. AlternativeFactsRule

    AlternativeFactsRule Mmm ... Coconuts
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    It’s like ranking the world’s deadliest snakes. You can measure the amount of venom dosed with each bite. You can study the mechanism of the venom’s action in human bodies. But if you just look at the numbers of people bitten by that snake and how many of those ultimately die, what you’re mostly measuring isn’t how deadly the snake is - you’re measuring the access to adequate medical care and antivenin.

    And it’s the same thing with this virus.
     
  33. pperc15

    pperc15 Well-Known Member
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    Thank you for explaining. Determining a true death rate is impossible in a vacuum. And it’s dependent on knowing actual infection numbers, etc. only with serological testing many months from now in hindsight will we be able to determine this and even then it’s complicated by many variables.

    the assumption that the death rate is easier to report on than the positivity rate is incorrect and flawed logic. They are dependent on each other. The death rates denominator is the number of positive cases.
     
  34. Hoss Bonaventure

    Hoss Bonaventure College football is overrated anyways.
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    I shitting your brains out the last few days a symptom? Just peeing out my butthole.
     
  35. pperc15

    pperc15 Well-Known Member
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    It can be, yes. GI involvement prior to respiratory symptoms has been described.
     
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  36. Hoss Bonaventure

    Hoss Bonaventure College football is overrated anyways.
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    Can’t tell if it’s that or maybe my body rejecting all the horrible food I ate over last weekend. I’ll also get the shits when I start exercising again after taking off for a bit. Gonna watch it. Mentioned in another thread but had some shortness of breath and chest discomfort but I also have anxiety issues. As far as lungs go I ran 3 miles today with no real issues outside of normal being out of breath from running.
     
  37. pperc15

    pperc15 Well-Known Member
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    Sounds good
     
  38. THF

    THF BITE THE NUTS, THUMB IN THE ASS!
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    Take your temperature. It’s the easiest way to know. If it’s over 100 it’s not 100% but it’s an indicator that you might have it. If it’s less than 99.5 or so you should be fine.

    I had a temp of 99.2 the other day when I gave blood and they considered that normal.
     
  39. Hoss Bonaventure

    Hoss Bonaventure College football is overrated anyways.
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    No fever
     
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  40. Imurhuckleberry

    Imurhuckleberry Avid spectator of windmill warriors
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    I was thinking that the 100° cutoff doesn't really reflect. Like AVG temp is 98.6 but mine is always like 97.5. I understand that most people don't know there healthy temp but by the time I cross a hundred I'm feeling really bad.
     
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  41. PSU12

    PSU12 The Grand Experiment
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    I read somewhere Germany/EU countries were getting a bit creative with Covid reported deaths. Essentially anyone that had a pre-existing condition, they were reporting the pre-existing condition as cause of death, not Covid. Only previously healthy people that died were counted in their death totals ... any truth?
     
  42. slogan119

    slogan119 Her?
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    I wouldn’t put it past a lot (most?) of countries to minimize death totals to keep fear down.

    But we’re going to have bodies stacked everywhere soon and there will be no way to minimize it.
     
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  43. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    We’re 28% today, and Director of Health Amy Acton cautioned reliance on the numbers because our testing is so limited.

    C0170349-AAA5-440D-9B4C-83559BD3E1A5.png
    8CA0A2A1-0143-4CD5-81DE-8572F5E88981.jpeg
     
  44. xec

    xec Well-Known Member
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    That is often done in the USA with influenza. They call such deaths “influenza associated” deaths.
     
  45. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Misbehavin’
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  46. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member

  47. pperc15

    pperc15 Well-Known Member
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    Have not seen or heard that
     
  48. Zebbie

    Zebbie Hey Mike, guess what I have in my underwear?
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    I don’t think he’s wrong - I’m mentally prepping myself not to be able to go back into the office until sometime in May
     
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  49. RonBurgundy

    RonBurgundy Well-Known Member

    Yes. Viral myocarditis causing arrhythmia and cardiomyopathy. Killer in ~20-30% of cases. Always in severe cases though, not in mild.