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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by TrustyPatches, Mar 15, 2020.
The University of Utah/ARUP is building to a 3,000/day capacity. Not sure what the target date is.
I definitely think we should have strong social distancing practices and most places shutdown/drive-thru/to-go until the end of April. After that we have to get some relief though.
Have to have a hell of a viral load right? I don’t think ACE2 is expressed in cardiac tissue, is it?
The longer people don’t listen and only some of us stay at home the longer all of us stay at home. If you’re not stark raving furious with people who aren’t listening know that they are extending the timelines for you.
From what I understand these are 100% icu/septic, end stage organ failure patients who then just flip in Vtach and die.
As we get closer to Easter POTUS will use a presser to pat himself on the back, rail at the media and Dems, talk at length about not making the cure worse than the disease and then will extend the guidelines until May 1.
Yes. May be secondary cardiac infections
oh I know, which is why I laughed at his Easter goal the other day
This will be very interesting data. It could suggest this spread well before Wuhan. BUT, the genetic sequencing data implies it’s not true. We’ll see.
Monday an Italian doctor said they were seeing non-influenza but influenza-like cases in late November prior to Wuhan. Of course, now China is saying Italy started the pandemic. My guess is that it was in Wuhan before it got to Italy, in late November, and many other places. Washington State officials think it was circulating in Seattle 6 weeks prior to the first case there.
There is documented covid from January in Seattle.
No big deal obviously. One month ago POTUS tweeted this thing is fake news created by the media and Dems to hurt him and that the USA had it under control and that he liked the looks of the stock market.
Isn’t that what Why?Pokes was saying was a possibility yesterday?
As infectious as this thing is, does anyone think it stayed localized in a city of 12 million people with easy access to air transport?
While this virus seems to infect everyone it touches; it would be impossible for it to stay contained in Wuhan for any long term period of time. It would get out immediately.
Cumulative cases still logarithmic
Let’s not use how we feel, or gut instincts, to be facts or spread conspiracy. The data will reveal all in time. For now, all we have are hypotheses that need to be tested.
The flavor of the day hypothesis is that this is way more wide spread than we know. It sounds good. It makes us feel safer. But we don’t know and until we have serological testing we dare not take a chance.
At least anecdotally, docs in ERs are saying they did not see the ground glass opacity CT scans in hospitals until just the last few months so hard to argue with them that there was unexplained pneumonia death that was actually covid.
my mom swears she & my dad had mild cases of it after they went to Vegas from Feb. 20-22 or thereabouts - they went with a group of 8 or 10 people, and over half of them were sick by around the middle of that following week
The point is that it can’t realistically have been in wide circulation much earlier or the patient surges would have happened much earlier than they are. The ventilator dependent respiratory failure cases are the hard data points we have.
Fuck, watch that. Those asking about 30-50 year olds with no co morbidity. Yeah. Just listen to what this ER doc in Queens says
I thought this same about my illness in October. Just remember, it makes you feel good and safe to think you had it and recovered. That’s human nature. Until you know, be careful.
I cancelled my week in Vegas as soon as I heard about Wuhan. Vegas is heavily visited by the Chinese and the Chinese New Year festivals in Vegas had just taken place. When I was working at The Aria we hosted MGM’s Chinese New Year Celebration. We flew in Chinese high rollers and a guest. 2,500 total. Put them up in SkySuites, provided free dining., etc... the celebration was awesome. All of the ballrooms were used. Top entertainers from China performed. Highlight of the evening was the raffle of a $250,000 Maserati. Naturally valuable corporate resource xec was allowed to freely circulate and partake of the wines, champagnes and epicurean cuisine.
Our competitors all did the same thing. Additionally, tons of non-high roller Chinese hit town.
oh I know - until we have widespread testing that can verify that antibodies are present in someone’s system, indicating a past infection, it’s all pure speculation...not a valid reason at all to turn down the caution level
This site is cross checking county level data and I like it better
yeah, there’s Chinese citizens there pretty much year round...it wouldn’t surprise me if it was circulating there before anyone picked up on it, but that’s water way past the bridge at this point
I totally agree that “gut instinct” has no place in science.
My question is more, does anyone in the scientific community believe that a virus with the infection rates we have seen, was able to stay contained in Wuhan for several months?
Does anyone think the Chinese (who tried to hide and mislead the public) was able to contain the virus before someone infected left Wuhan and spread it internationally?
To follow up; if they do believe it stayed isolated for a lengthy period of time; doesn’t that question the infectious ability of this virus?
It seems to me it has to be one or the other. It can’t be super contagious and easily contained. It can’t be contained easily early on unless it’s not as infectious as we believe.
pperc15 or RonBurgundy
There’s a slight chance I’ve got Covid-19 right now in the early stages (3 days in) had a fever, nausea, body aches, kidney aches, and lungs feel “off” sometimes. I usually do 40 push-ups and run 20 miles a weeks, would it be wise to not to partake in too much cardio or push-ups until I’m sure I’m 100%? I’m a little worried now about maybe causing a heart attack.
Yes, the vast majority of the scientific community believes this started in Wuhan and spread from there. It was not contained in Wuhan. A huge number of residents of Wuhan fled before the heavy handed quarantine started. I don’t think your fact basis is correct so the question is irrelevant.
I don’t think anyone though this was “contained”, here or China or elsewhere. Except for trump that is.
You aren’t going to have a heart attack lol. Illl let RonBurgundy answer if he has time, but just monitor your breathing. If you need to gasp for air call the ER.
I’m an old man, 42 lol
So we are in agreement in saying we think this virus spread almost immediately? Or do you think it still took some time to spread?
the cardiac stuff is people who are REALLY sick. Like can’t breath or move sick.
Gotcha, just curious about putting stress on my body that’s not needed but I’d like to resume my daily activities ASAP. Thank you!!
It took time for sure. That’s logarithmic growth. It starts very slow. Different contact traces flame out when someone gets sick and stays home. But eventually it grows until it starts to be very noticeable. That’s what happened I think. But, I’d love to be wrong. We need serological tests. For now the consensus is this stated in Wuhan, and spread exactly the way mathematical models would suggest in each country based on known cases. We will see man
Rest dude. When you’re sick, rest.
And you need to be 14-21 days quarantined. Don’t go run outside.
I was basically the corporate Heath Department for The Aria, Vdara, The Shops at Crystals, The Park, and Mandarin Oriental. As part of my duties I read all of the health related incident reports. There’s many everyday. Almost all meet the criteria of the Vegas Flu (combo of too much alcohol and not staying hydrated). Something like COVID could circulate quite awhile without being noticed there.
If I died use my absurdities about this as “I told you so’s”
Everything. That and post a bunch of sick ass weird shit (non Covid related) stuff.
Yeah I’m going to see where the next few days take me as far as is this Covid and it gets worse or maybe it was a stomach bug. But that doesn’t explain some of the kidney aches and weird lung feelings I’ve had since Monday.
You got it Hoss.
Let 1 person know who you work for so we can torment them should something occur. Just 1, to be safe.
The Chinese report an increase in influenza-like cases in the weeks prior to identifying an outbreak of coronavirus. An Italian doctor on Monday reported they were seeing influenza-like cases in late November. My own theory is that it had spread from Wuhan to several locations on the planet before Wuhan identified it had an outbreak. At those other locations the medical folk did exactly like the Wuhan medical community did at the beginning: they documented cases and deaths as influenza-like.
i was in vegas right after the chinese new year celebrations can a guy get an antibody test
Which properties did you spend significant time at? Please include time at Spearmint Rhino, Sapphire, Deja Vu, Palomino and the like.
stayed in mirage
but walked the whole strip every day and spent time in basically every strip property
lots of cool chinese new year decorations!
Adjust per capita indeed
Good article https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/23/coronavirus-isnt-alive-thats-why-its-so-hard-kill/
not crazy high compared to gi, kidneys, and testes, but it’s there