COVID-19 info thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by TrustyPatches, Mar 15, 2020.

  1. snooks

    snooks Well-Known Member
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  2. goblue31602

    goblue31602 Well-Known Member
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  3. Can I Spliff it

    Can I Spliff it Is Butterbean okay?
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  4. Can I Spliff it

    Can I Spliff it Is Butterbean okay?
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    Sorry to report but while it's fun to pretend there's some spectrum of apolitical-ness to this, well,

    https://apnews.com/4ee1a3a8d631b454f645b2a8d9597de7

    "EXTREMELY PRO TRUMP DOCTORS" needed to help rally trump for people to ignore cdc guidelines.

    What's sad is I'm not embellishing whatsoever
     
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  5. pnk$krtcrÿnästÿ

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    They can be found. I unfortunately know several, personally. It's a recurring question I entertain as to whether trumptardery is a reportable offense the state board. I'm not convinced it's not.
     
  6. Can I Spliff it

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    Are they mostly competent with just a blind spot when squaring their profession and this administration?
     
  7. pnk$krtcrÿnästÿ

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    They're mostly specialists/surgical sub-specialists with such a narrow scope of practice that matters of public health don't particularly concern them.

    It's a real problem that most of the largest medical lobbying groups in Washington are pretty much always headed by orthopedic surgeons and not primary care folks
     
  8. pnk$krtcrÿnästÿ

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    That said, I also know several PCPs who are Trumpers. Even young ones. I have no idea how such a catastrophe of humanity comes into being.
     
  9. bertwing

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    C20A3692-55F1-405F-B65A-19CF92989637.jpeg

    CBAC9BCD-C907-4A7B-8F68-0FF79F5B2E60.jpeg
     
  10. RonBurgundy

    RonBurgundy Well-Known Member

    I know several who get their Covid 19 talking points from Fox News not Medical journals
     
  11. xec

    xec Well-Known Member
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    Doesn’t it come down to finances for many of them? They study a long time for a profession that should be fairly lucrative. Many come out with a high level of student loans. There is overhead attached to their practices.... but suddenly there is no revenue stream. Then they hear from other MDs on Facebook, Fox News, Presidential briefings and other media downplay the seriousness of the virus. After rationalizing that the virus isn’t that serious, they don’t see a conflict with the oath they have taken.
     
    #4462 xec, May 20, 2020
    Last edited: May 20, 2020
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  12. xec

    xec Well-Known Member
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    You have to admit that his team are pretty advanced at this brainwashing thing.
     
  13. AlternativeFactsRule

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    I disagree
     
  14. xec

    xec Well-Known Member
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    I’m just saying that the ability to rationalize is powerful and that the rationalizer finds no conflict with the oath. Otherwise, I agree with you. I worded my post poorly.
     
  15. AlternativeFactsRule

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    In addition to “do no harm,” most versions of the Hippocratic Oath used today include an obligation to teach. The word “doctor” comes from the Latin for teacher. Spreading misinformation is the opposite of teaching and does a lot of harm.
     
  16. HuskerInMiami

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    That's true on the west coast of Florida, but I'm not sure it's true for this side. There's tons of Canadians that definitely aren't Florida residents. Even a lot of the New Yorkers on this side have DL from NY.
     
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  17. RavenNole

    RavenNole Well-Known Member
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    there are a ton of exceptions. More canadiens on the west coast than the east coast of Florida. Sarasota, st Pete down to naples has a ton of canadiens. New Yorkers who have NY plates would likely be NY residents. If they live in Florida 6 months and a day it would be categorically dumb to be a NY resident but there are likely plenty that still work and spend maybe 2-3 months a year in Florida and are in their Florida homes riding out the virus. Them not being counted could be problematic. I don’t think we are talking more than 2-4% MAX of the population but those people coming from NY are also more likely to have it so it could be impacting the numbers. I just don’t think it will in a way to truly change the narrative.
     
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  18. HuskerInMiami

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    And Dade-Broward have been ground zero for this thing. So there's definitely cases being missed.

    I have physical therapy at 12:30 today and I had to move it down to once a week because there's 10 or more 70+ year old people and a majority refuse to wear a mask. I can't believe it's not more prevalent in the geriatrics in South Florida.
     
  19. HuskerInMiami

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    I agree and think what RonBurgundy was trying to say (to put words in his mouth) is that it's all going to be a wash. Some people may be missed and some may get added when they shouldn't. But at the end of the day, we'll have a good ballpark on the number of deaths.
     
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  20. RonBurgundy

    RonBurgundy Well-Known Member

    My point is it’s impossible to know
     
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  21. AlternativeFactsRule

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    Any widely accepted number at the end of all of this is going to be an estimate that is substantially higher than the death counts currrently being tracked
     
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  22. RonBurgundy

    RonBurgundy Well-Known Member

    Proposed mechanism for why kids don’t get Covid as often:


    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766524

    tl;dr age dependent expression of nasal ace2 receptors.

    (not the first time mechanism has been proposed)

    Other studies have proposed that kids have stronger innate immunity so rarely show any/much for symptoms
     
  23. snooks

    snooks Well-Known Member
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    You mean why they don't get it as frequently or why it doesn't have the same negative effects or both?
     
  24. pratyk

    pratyk Arsenal FC, Rutgers Scarlet Knights
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    Just anecdotal info but at the Boston Children's Hospital, every admitted kid is being tested, in addition to the ones who come in with symptoms. So far, # of staff members who've tested positive is more than the number of patients.
     
  25. AptosDuck

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    TBH, that's a disappointing study in that it doesn't show (because it didn't look at) subjects over 60, where the symptomatic/serious/fatal numbers really jump. OK, ACE2 expression rises from 2.4 to 3.2 as you go from the very young to the 25-60 (!) group, but I'm not sure why I should be interested so much in a 35% increase among age groups that aren't significantly impacted by this particular virus. Does the fatality rate increase in a linear manner corresponding to the ACE2 expression? If so, why didn't they discuss that?

    I'm just getting a bit of a "so what" from this article. Maybe I'm missing something of import, in which case please enlighten me.
     
  26. pperc

    pperc Well-Known Member
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    ACE2 is the viral entry receptor. Expression of that receptor will impact ability of virus to enter and infect cells. 35% decreased expression is meaningful and could explain why kids don’t get infected as frequently. That’s it. That’s the paper. You’re trying to infer way too much about symptoms post infection that may not be well explained by entry receptor expression.
     
  27. Illinihockey

    Illinihockey Well-Known Member
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    Is the CDC report that the virus doesn't spread easily on surfaces backed up by science or just political speak?
     
  28. xec

    xec Well-Known Member
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    I’m not aware of any studies on this. Earlier in the pandemic a university did a quick study on C19 persistence on surfaces. On most it was detectable for only a few hours but on steel it was detected after 3 days. The graphs showed that those detected after 3 days were probably inactivated virus particles. Based on this and the fact that contact time, dose and transference from the hands to a point of entry are important factors in infection they concluded it is not easily spread via surface contamination. I agree with them. Their new guidance still says it’s a risk and you should wash your hands a lot.
     
    #4479 xec, May 21, 2020
    Last edited: May 21, 2020
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  29. AptosDuck

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    I get that, and aplologies if I've conflated infection with later symptoms in any way. But I don't know that kids aren't as frequently infected; the studies I've seen comparing pediatric infection rates with adult infection rates have been sparse and low-N to the point where I don't see how any firm conclusions can be reached (seen some that suggest pediatric infection rate is 50% that of adults, others that suggest no difference between age groups). And even though the ACE2 expression is 35% lower (or around 75% of the older group), I'm not seeing any discussion of viral load, which seems to play a significant role in the probability of infection. Kids under 10 are certainly in close contact with each other (and serve as efficient conduits of infection for other viruses), so one might expect that they would get a hefty viral load from another infected child/classmate (or teacher). It just seems like there are other more important things at play here than straight receptivity.

    At any rate, even if kids are as little as half as likely to get infected as adults are because of lower ACE2 expression, they seem to be much less than half as likely to develop symptoms serious enough to prompt testing. How they manage to fight it off is, to me at least, more interesting and important than a rather simple tallying of ACE2 expression in the under-60 cohort that is least likely to develop the more serious complications of infection. I get what it's saying, I'm just not convinced that it means much of anything by itself.
     
  30. pperc

    pperc Well-Known Member
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    These are good questions but science moves in small steps, not leaps. Every paper is knowledge useful to build on.
    On viral load, it’s very, very difficult to measure viral load of respiratory infections on any scale. Sample collection is very difficult and invasive.
     
  31. RonBurgundy

    RonBurgundy Well-Known Member

    Don’t get it as frequently. Less chance of initial viral entry.

    Oh for sure not a landmark study. I get questions constantly about If/whether it’s kids not being symptomatic or kids not getting it (which matters for spread) and why. Ace2 variability has always been proposed and innate immunity has been postulated as well. This at least gives us some hard science that maybe kids are even less likely to get infected in the first place and gives a plausible mechanism. Doesn’t tell us anything more than that. Small piece of knowledge and nothing more, but helps us begin painting a better piece of the whole picture/knowledge of the virus.
    This is why every good paper ends with “more studies needed”.

    also Illinihockey , xec ’s explanation was perfect
     
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  32. THF

    THF BITE THE NUTS, THUMB IN THE ASS!
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    So this morning I wanted to dig into the Georgia numbers a bit as they have been unrestricted for about 21 days. I was told to expect a spike around 30-45 days after opening up. It looks like the Georgia DPH data is looking positive from a trending perspective.

    Cases
    [​IMG]

    Deaths
    [​IMG]

    If this data holds on with the number of cases continuing to decline we should see deaths follow suit and continue to decrease.

    I have to think this gives serious credibility that as temperature and humidity increase, the ability for this virus to spread has to be impacted negatively. Can any one else help me understand why the Covid cases would continue to decrease while removing the shelter in place order? It seems that would be the opposite. As restrictions were lifted we should see cases spiking and after three weeks I would think we would start to see some indicators of this. Is it still too early?
     
  33. Illinihockey

    Illinihockey Well-Known Member
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    Feels like this is very premature since we don't even know if this will the THE vaccine

     
  34. pperc

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    Have you looked at hospitalizations? Tests per day as a control? Do you think it's been enough time for exponential growth to start back up? Do you think people are still being very cautious generally so have you examined movement of people data since restrictions were eased? Finally, do you think the data is reliable given what we know about Florida and other states playing games with their data (and we know Georgia has played games with their charts - e.g., x axes).
    There are so many factors here that to suggest temperature and humidity (again) is just odd to me. You seem fixated with the topic and being right about it instead of being objective. No offense intended but it's my observation.
     
  35. THF

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    Agreed, I am absolutely fixated on the topic as it seems if this holds true and can be demonstrated, it would mean that would mean people would be safer and at less risk during the warmer and more humid seasons.

    It also appears hospitalizations rates are declining as well since May 1st. Again, this is the opposite of everything predicted once the shelter at home order was lifted. Spoilered due to size.

    Obviously if the state is cooking the books on Covid numbers and they were indeed continuing to increase, I would have to believe the hospitalization numbers would continue to increase, yet they are doing the opposite. They have been decreasing steadily as seen above since May 1st.

    Lastly I do think that a large percentage of people have modified their behavior similar to what has happened in Sweden, however we saw example after example of bars being packed and overcrowded in Georgia for Cinco De Mayo, so I would think that activity would specifically drive a spike (my own opinion, no scientific data to substantiate that) which would produce some indicators we would be seeing now (over two weeks later).

    I do have to consider the exponential growth will take some time, but my thoughts are that the lead time necessary for exponential growth wouldn't apply in this case as we already have reached a large enough number of cases to offset that. We didn't shut Georgia down long enough to get back to a small enough number to reset the time needed for exponential growth so I wouldn't think that would be a factor.

    Again, I am not saying this proves my own theory or any other theories about temperature, but I am failing to explain the continued reduction in the numbers while restrictions are lifted. Cases should be going up, not down. The only thing which has changed has been the climate which I am aware of.

    If anyone has any other explanations, I am all ears.
     
  36. pperc

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    I will feel better with 4 more weeks of data. At that point, seasonality would be a reasonably strong line of thinking.
     
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  37. theriner69er

    theriner69er Well-Known Member
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    Can you give us the data on the # of hospitalizations and tests per days as a control?

    I've rarely seen tests per day presented along with the data that cases are increasing or decreasing, but that's a pretty essential factor.
     
  38. THF

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    Agreed, and as xec pointed out previously, there is some decent data that four other COVs demonstrated seasonality traits and I am hopeful this one will follow suit.

    Here is the study on the other four.

    https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20224

    As you can see, they have consistently followed a similar pattern of seasonality.

    [​IMG]
     
  39. pperc

    pperc Well-Known Member
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    this is correct, although zoonotic infections often do not follow seasonality, hence the hesitation
     
  40. pperc

    pperc Well-Known Member
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    i cannot. you have homework!
     
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  41. theriner69er

    theriner69er Well-Known Member
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    I've tried to find data on the number of tests per day in sates but had no luck :( I thought maybe you had some info or knew where it might be available.
     
  42. Illinihockey

    Illinihockey Well-Known Member
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  43. ANTWONE

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    Hospitalizations are not dropping here in SW FL. Will be interesting where they are come first week of June.

    upload_2020-5-21_13-19-35.png
     
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  44. theriner69er

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  45. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hotdog
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    They've steadily gone up here the last 5-7 days
     
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  46. THF

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  47. Pile Driving Miss Daisy

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    Looks like they are but only in the past couple of days. I'm very skeptical of any numbers from my state though.

    Where is here and how do you know? Not saying that isn't the case but it's really hard to get a grasp if things are getting worse without going into hospitals and asking how many COVID patients they're treating.
     
  48. pperc

    pperc Well-Known Member
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    https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en/test
     
  49. Jax Teller

    Jax Teller Well-Known Member
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    My dad has a consult with his Dr next Thursday about some possible side effects of his meds (sooner if they get worse). He is taking ertapenem in addition to his normal meds. My mom said that he feels like his handwriting is getting bad (doesn't have the shakes and has never had great handwriting), some mumbling when he talks and forgetting some things (he is 70 years old). Hopefully it's nothing serious.
    RonBurgundy xec have yall heard of any side effects like that with that med? I'm not sure what else he takes daily.