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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by TrustyPatches, Mar 15, 2020.
Which chud that got threadbanned is this one
are you asking me? Just adding some clarity to the headline which was misleading. If you disagree that is fine.
I think i posted it before but its worth watching in some down time
Seems kind of scary that it hasn’t spread that much outside of NYC and we’re at 100k deaths
Lady friend lost her first possible covid patient. CT looked like possible covid except it was interior, when I guess the classic signature is exterior, enlarged heart indicated possible alcoholism comorbidity. Sarcov2 pcr came back negative. Transferred the patient to a larger hospital. Based on the negative pcr admitting hospital put him in the pulmonary floor and not the covid floor. Died 30 hours later. Still not certain if it was caused by Corona. She was pretty upset, questioning if there was something she could have done differently. Kid was 30.
direct link: https://ssec.si.edu/sites/default/f...19/COVID-19_HowCanIProtectMyselfandOthers.pdf
I know this is old, dated April 5th, but interesting read and helped me understand difference between CFR and IFR. I'm trying to catch up. Also interesting to review predictions from the past:
I'm sure this has been discussed a lot in this thread but can you help me understand something.
Coronavirus Cases: 1,621,196
Doesn't this mean a CFR of 5.94%? Which is what is shown here as well:
I guess that's what that tweeter is asking... why is the CDC using such low values in their planning scenarios?
The assumption is we're missing a lot of positive cases that never get tested and/or aren't that severe. So there's more actual cases of covid than the number of positive cases suggest. Still that's a really low number for that age group is I think his point.
I'm sorry to ask this but is there a good source that can explain how we know this wasn't a "manufactured" virus? I have family members that need to see it. Sigh.
How good are you with router configuration? When you visit these family members you need to block a bunch of websites
Her friend's daughter is an ICU nurse and told her it has to be because the virus "is not behaving normally"
given the people you’re likely dealing with, this probably won’t matter. But Trump’s own DNI assesses it as “natural”
What the fuck is normal for a virus?
This is encouraging news in my opinion. Phase II and Phase III of the vaccine with some of the highest expectations are set to begin shortly.
For those wondering how the vaccine works:
Ofcourse, it has to be a Chad vaccine..
Goddamnit pepperoni I know and that's what I said! Help me!
The Karen vaccine is busy speaking to a manager.
This might be a decent start.
I like this program a lot. Don't like that it's probably a one and done due to immunity to the adenovirus vector but I like it.
there is no helping those poeple, Fargin'
Have to try. She's my Mom and has CLL and severe COPD.
Thought I saw the Moderna vaccine is in phase 2 as well
Oh, missed the part that it’s your mom who believes this. Well who cares if she thinks it’s man made? Does that make it less dangerous? Just use it against her and tell her if she thinks it’s man made she better stay inside her house.
Actually the articles posted in here have already helped. She's typically a pretty reasonable, normal person. Out of character for her to believe something like that. I've given up trying to squash everybody's conspiracy theories in my life but her I have to keep at it with her issues.
Damn 30 years old...that's crazy and sucks. I highly doubt she did or didn't do something that could've changed things. Couple questions: how likely are false negatives? how much would he have to drink to have an enlarged heart at that age?
CanSino vaccine data analysis from Evercore
underwhelming -- Chinese covid vaccine Phase 1 data (Cansino)
Data from first Chinese vaccine trial (n=108) against COVID were published in Lancet today (very detailed).
Let’s start with safety: therapeutic index looks tight to begin with. Cansino investigated 3 doses in Ph 1, and “on the basis of safety profile” in first 14 days, they decided NOT to take the high dose (1.5e11) to Ph 2 trial. 17% of participants had a severe adverse event (grade 3+) at that high dose. And btw, immune response against COVID was better at this high dose.
Cansino’s vaccine is NOT an mRNA like Moderna. Instead, it is using a Ad5 virus expressing spike protein. (btw, there is a theoretical risk of getting HIV when taking a Ad5 vaccine which activates T cells).
Turns out, the biggest issue with this program is that many people in real world may have pre-existing immune response against this Ad5 virus used to make this vaccine. And that was the biggest issue in this trial: ~50% of pts had >1:200 titre of neutralizing antibody against Ad5 virus (which had a direct impact on efficacy). E.g., “seroconversion” (>4x increase in neutralizing ab) was 65% vs 37% in pts with low vs high pre-existing immune against Ad5.
Recall I discussed in Moderna deep dive that “>4x” immune response isn’t exactly a “win” –look for absolute GMT titer to gauge strength of immune response … how was that?
It reads very moderate.
Case in point: GMT titer against receptor binding domain (less relevant) = 478-1445
However, on the more important metric, neutralizing antibody against live virus, GMT titer = 10-28
(range I cite above is low vs high immunity against Ad5)
If you pause and think about it, ~half of participants had a GMT of 10 on neutralizing antibody against COVID. That is very underwhelming IMHO.
Do we know what a “protective” GMT titer is for neutralizing ab?
Technically, we don’t.
In practice, our analysis of recovered COVID pts suggests neutralizing antibody titers are in few hundred range …
How did the Lancet author describe this immune response against COVID?
Discussion focused on T cell responses, and how other trials show that antibody responses can fade but T cell response is v impt. In other words, they appeared to deflect attention to T cell responses.
Overall, reads underwhelming to me.
Is that from sinovac? There was a great write up in Matt Levine's newsletter about the whole clusterfuck around the power struggle for control. I guess they've had some positive developments on their vaccine trials but can't really raise money like Moderna did.
Best case for Americans to actually take the best vaccine is probably to ensure it's not Chinese made, anyway.
Could you elaborate on this? Meaning they couldn't "update" the vaccine if a new strain emerges and use it on people who took the first one?
Also laughing at them saying they will get results quicker if transmission remains high in the UK, just freaking test us Americans over here because we sure as shit aren't going to drop off.
It's using another virus, called Adenovirus, to deliver a SARS-CoV2 protein and get an immune response against it. There are lots of different strains of Adenovirus - some the population already has immunity to, such as Ad5. When given this vaccine, you'll also have an immune response to the Adenovirus strain itself, so if you were to be given it again, you'd have antibodies to it and it won't reinfect you to induce immunity to the SARS-CoV2 protein. As a booster or update, they'd need to develop a vaccine using a different strain of Adenovirus to make it work again. Given vaccine development costs and timelines, that's not ideal.
If you had to take a wild stab at the timetable for the first vaccine available for public use what would you guess? 8 months, 12, 18, 24? I know there's no way to really know, I'm just curious what your thoughts are.
There are some podcasts that went over it but it basically comes down to it's a horrible design and there are know notable (humans did this) markers it looks like. As to whether it was being studied in a lab and was allowed to escape, that I haven't seen a shutdown answer against.
As an update; anyone who volunteered and gave blood during the first couple of weeks of the Covid shutdown, should be eligible to donate blood again.
I just got my reminder that it’s been the required eight weeks you have to wait and you should be eligible to donate again.
I figured I would share as I know they are in need of blood donations.
People with young kids --
Now that work from home is ending, what are you all of you doing for childcare? Our daycare is open, and they are apparently taking precautions to help curb transmission (limiting number of kids per room, staff wearing masks, taking temperatures every time your kid is dropped off, not letting parents inside the building), but obviously that's not perfect. My main concern is my son bringing something back and giving it to my pregnant wife. Her doctor seemed mostly concern with the virus giving her a fever and causing complications.
By end of year if one of these actually works. Public use is broad though - for example, just front line workers, etc
Honestly, if you can afford to not send him, you shouldn’t. If you don’t have a choice, you know who to blame.
Gotcha on the last part. Historically, years end will be quite a scientific feat, no?
I have an odd question.
I know there are constraints with it, but couldn't we just harvest as much convalescent antibodies as we want from humanized mice with present-but-knocked-down Human ACE2 receptor?
or shit, humanized pigs
....are there humanized pigs? It was only really recently that we were able to create pigs whose hearts were compatible with human hearts, so I imagine the genetics are close enough to where the immune surveillance negligible between humans and those pigs. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Hah, no there are not immune humanized pigs.
humanized mice - how many mice do you think it would take to generate enough antibody from mouse serum to dose a human? Do that thought experiment.
I feel like googling "volume of blood in mice" is gonna put me on a watch list
anyway probably lots. What's the human dosage typically?
Guys, no. Don’t. Surely there’s another thread for this discourse....
I’ve had 4 separate colleagues ask about ‘numbness of the tongue’ over the past week. They’ve each seen a patient with inexplicable tongue numbness. We all know loss of taste has been a covid sign. RonBurgundy are your hearing any tongue ‘numbness’ reports out there?
our day care/ summer program is doing the same but we decided to not send our daughter for now, we have a girl who lives around the block who just finished 8th grade staying with our daughter most days, and the my mom and my mil rotate a few days as they can as well
sounds suspicious for sure though